Green Budget Europe ENVIRONMENTAL FISCAL REFORM: KEY FOR THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER TO DELIVER

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1 Green Budget Europe ENVIRONMENTAL FISCAL REFORM: KEY FOR THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER TO DELIVER GREENING THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL GOVERNANCE OF THE EU (THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER) 28 November 2013 Brussels European Commission STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

2 Outline I. Carbon/Energy taxes and phasing out Environmental Harmful Subsidies or: the double dividend in action II. Adding (properly taxed) meat to the bones: Windows of opportunity for Environmental Fiscal Reform III. Recommendations EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

3 Green Budget Europe s members: a unique multi-stakeholder Expert Platform STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

4 Green Budget Europe's partnerships: collaborate enhance make a difference STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

5 Environmental Fiscal Reform: WHAT IS IT ALL ABOUT?

6 Rising labour costs Labour costs have continually and visibly risen: Labour costs manufacturing industry in /h (2010) EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

7 Falling commodity prices Overall, commodity prices have fallen since the beginning of the industrial revolution: Economist Metal-Detector : Industrial metal-index (1845 = 100%) EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

8 Tax revenues sustainable? The composition of tax revenue varies strongly across the sample, with labour taxes ranging from 38 to 57% of total tax revenue The total tax revenue as a share of GDP varies from 31% in Spain to 42% in France 24% 25% 55% Spain 31% 36% 26% 38% Poland Low taxing 32% 30% 30% 40% United Kingdom 35% 28% 21% 52% EU 27 39% 38% 12% 50% Hungary 39% 28% 15% 57% Germany High taxing 40% 26% 20% 55% France 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Tax on consumption Tax on capital Tax on labour 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Total tax revenue as percentage of GDP Source: Vivid Economics and Eurostat EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

9 RATIONALE: price = strongest market signal driver for changes and efficient allocation of resources TOOLS: Environmental Fiscal/Tax Reform: Taxes/Charges on energy and resources Cutting of environmentally harmful subsidies Changing structures of tax/fiscal system by integrating environmental/climate aspects STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER OBJECTICES: reduce energy consumption and unemployment (+ black labour markets) double dividend contribute to reduced health and transport problems and urban sprawl

10 Europe 2020 strategy Europe 2020 five headline targets urope 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG) Stability and Growth Pact Macro-economic surveillance Thematic surveillance Fiscal surveillance National level National Reform Programmes Stability and Convergence Programmes EU level Commission s Annual Growth Survey EU annual policy guidance and recommendations EU flagship initiatives and levers

11 Environmental Tax revenue in % of GDP Source: Eurostat 2013 STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

12 Environmental Tax revenue in % of GDP Denmark: 4,1 % The Netherlands: 3,5 % Slovenia: 3,4 % Spain, France, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia: below 2 % Source: Eurostat 2013 STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

13 Reform proposals energy tax curve the reform proposals aim for a consistent carbon price across most emissions Transport fuels are an exception as they cause further externalities Total implied tax rate, /tco Taxes (including EU ETS) 2020 Proposed Taxes Residential // Natural Gas; Residential //Coal 0 Residential // Heat, 12 Agriculture/forestry // Gas/diesel oil, 94 Road // LPG, 166 Road // diesel, 155 Commercial and public services // Electricity, 20 Residential // Electricity, 20 Road // Motor gasoline, Source: Source: Vivid Vivid Economics: Economics Emissions from energy consumption, tco 2 STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

14 Change in GDP from baseline, % Change in employment from baseline, % 141 Energy tax reform is the least damaging of the three options considered Figure 4. Energy tax reform cap has a smaller negative impact on GDP than a direct tax Figure And no worse employment impact Energy tax Direct Indirect Energy tax Direct Indirect Source: Cambridge Econometrics E3ME model EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

15 Environmental Harmful Subsidies

16 Consequences of energy subsidies go well beyond fiscal costs Depress growth reduce investment in the energy sector crowd-out critical public spending over-allocate resources to energy intensive sectors Exert pressure on balance of payments of energy importers Create negative externalities (i.e. global warming) Reinforce inequality Sources: IMF 2013 EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

17 171 Annual fuel subsidies globally: $ 1,90 trillion = 2,7% of GDP or 8,1% revenues Coal Petroleum products with more than a quarter from coal Electricity Natural gas against only 3% average tax revenue from environmental taxation in the EU Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; OECD; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

18 Distribution of Petroleum Product Subsidies by Income Groups Bottom quintile Gasoline Second quintile Third quintile Kerosene Fourth quintile Top quintile LPG Diesel Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; OECD; World Bank; and IMF staff estimates STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

19 Country Specific Recommendations 2012/2013 A shift towards environmental taxation - 12 countries - AT, BE, CZ, EE (vehicles), ES, FR, HU (energy), IT, LT (including car taxation), LU, LV (resources) and SK. (11 in 2013) Recommendations on energy aspects - 8 countries BG, EE, LT, LV, MT (energy efficiency), EE, MT (renewables), regulated prices (HU), PL, UK (energy infrastructur No recommendations use of MBIs in specific sectors (water, waste, air). (2 on water, 3 on waste in 2013) No recommendations to phase out environmentally harmful subsidies (2 in 2013) EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

20 Implementation of CSRs

21 Reasons? 21 Lack of the EU Semester visibility? Communication between Ministries and Services? Low political priority to green taxes? Strong sectoral lobby / lack of CSO consultation? Social pressure? EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

22 you should take the lead: For a 10% tax shift from labour to environment and resource use Member States should develop a concrete strategy by 2016 on how to phase out Environmental Harmful Subsidies by 2020 CSRs should deliver on all Europe 2020 targets with strong CSO s involvement (annex) Support and finance mutual learning and peer review on best practice and better methodologies to ensure more effective multistakeholder engagement in the NRP, CSRs and the European Semester. We call on MEPs EFR key for the European Semester to deliver

23 Thank you for your attention! For more information, please don t hesitate to contact constanze.adolf@green-budget.eu We know everything we need to act