Economic statistics at the service of financial markets participants. Walter Radermacher, Eurostat Chief Statistician of the EU

Transcription

1 Economic statistics at the service of financial markets participants Walter Radermacher, Eurostat Chief Statistician of the EU

2 Summary I. Analysis of the needs II. Quality of statistical information III. Our replies to these requirements - short-term macroeconomic indicators - broader and longer term perspective IV. New tools for a modern statistical communication V. Cooperation and exchange of experience Walter Radermacher 2

3 I. Needs of financial markets participants Financial markets information needs Risk evaluation Analysis of situation and trends in the economy Optimisation of performance The crisis has increased demand for both financial statistics (in particular, on monetary and public finance issues) and non-financial statistics (growth-related issues) Walter Radermacher 3

4 II. Quality in statistics: dimensions Consistency with theory Which theory??? Quality = Fitness for Purpose Political relevance Who decides??? Measurability Reliability, timeliness,??? Walter Radermacher 4

5 II. Quality in statistics: aggregation Not labelled as Official Statistics Composite indicators Indicato r(sets) Specific Purpose Multi- Purpose Accounting systems Primary information Quality from surveys, registers etc. Walter Radermacher 5

6 III. Our answers The primary quality of Eurostat statistics is to integrate in a consistent framework financial and non-financial data National accounts offer the best illustration of complementarities between financial and nonfinancial statistics, because the accounting structure requires global coherency between both types of analysis Walter Radermacher 6

7 III. Short-term and long-term analyses Participants in the financial markets and analysts need statistical information useful for short-term as well as long-term macroeconomic analysis Eurostat has developed data for these two types of needs Walter Radermacher 7

8 III. Short-term macroeconomic indicators In cooperation with ECB and DG ECFIN, Eurostat publishes macroeconomic indicators Principal European Economic Indicators PEEIs Areas covered: consumer prices, quarterly national accounts, business activity, labour market, external trade, housing Highlighting some essential trends GDP, private final consumption and investment in volume, government deficit and debt, threemonth interest rate, long term government bond yields, euro-dollar exchange rate Walter Radermacher 8

9 III. A broader and longer term perspective Monitoring of public finances: extended powers of control have been given to Eurostat within the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) Two Macro Directorates in Eurostat C National accounts, prices and key indicators D Government finance statistics Alert mechanism has been set up to detect / correct macroeconomic imbalances ( Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure ) based on a scoreboard of indicators relating to external imbalances and competitiveness as well as internal imbalances Walter Radermacher 9

10 III. A broader and longer term perspective ctd European Union has launched Europe 2020, a long-term development strategy in order to promote a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Trends in innovation, research and development and competitiveness, environment and green growth, education, employment and social cohesion are analysed European Semester is another initiative which develops an integrated analysis at European level on fiscal policy, macroeconomic imbalances, financial sector issues and growth-enhancing structural reforms Walter Radermacher 10

11 IV. New communication tools Eurostat s objective: to go where the users are mobilizing the most modern communication tools at the service of the most demanding users including financial markets participants statistical data widely available on website cooperation with Google and others in order to further facilitate the search for statistical data Twitter applications for mobile devices (Eurostat App) Walter Radermacher 11

12 V. Cooperation + exchange of experience Cooperation with the European Central Bank in order to (further) optimise the integration between financial and non-financial statistics. Exchange of experience between statisticians and participants in the financial markets should be better explored to better know information needs (for the producers) to better know the diversity of statistical information (for the users) Walter Radermacher 12

13 Thank you for your kind attention Question time Walter Radermacher 13