Input-Output-Analysis of the Import Content of Production

Transcription

1 Input-Output-Analysis of the Import Content of Production A comparison between FRA, GER and NETH Franco-German Conference June 2008 in Berlin

2 Subject Import content of national production Starting point Fragmentation = new phenomenon of the international division of labour Consequences of international fragmentation Foreign trade, production and employment

3 State of the Art Impact of fragmentation on export economy Traditional Model x ex = (I-A d ) -1 * ex im ex = A im * (I-A d ) -1 * ex balance = x ex - im ex Impact of fragmentation on total economy??? How to model the production process behind the inputs imported comparable with the export induced domestic output? How to identify the domestic output adequate to imported inputs?

4 Import Modeling in Input-Output- Framework Type A: Imports structured by sectoral origin Type B: Imports structured by sectoral use Type C: Identification of complementary vs. competitive imports Type D: Import Matrices structured by intermediate and final use

5 Type D: Import matrices where: X d ij Y d il x d i X d ij = Matrix of Intermediate Inputs Domestically Produced Y d il = Final Demand for Goods Domestically Produced X im ij = Matrix of Imported Intermediate Goods X im ij Y im il x im i Y im il = Final Demand for Imported Goods x d i, x d j = Gross Output of Domestic Goods Z ij x im i = Total Imports x d j Z ij = Matrix of Primary Inputs

6 Alternatives to Calculate Total Effects of Imports on Production by the Standard Static Open Input- Output-Model Model A: Model B: Model C: Imputation-Model Technology - Model Fragmentation-Model

7 Model A: Imputation-Model Total Export-induced Output (1) x ex = (I-A d ) -1 * ex Total Import for the Output of Total Final Demand Goods (2) im = A im * (I-A d ) -1 * y d where: A d, A im y d Matrices of Technological Coefficients of Intermediate Inputs Produced Domestically or Imported Final Demand

8 Model B: Technology-Model Assumption: All intermediate inputs required for production of export goods as well as for the importadequate production are produced domestically. (3) x ex = (I-A) -1 * ex (4) x im = (I-A) -1 * im The model describes exclusively technological relations. where: A x ex x im Matrix of Technological Coefficients of Intermediate Inputs, Total export-induced production technologically induced, Total import-adequate production technologically induced,

9 Model C: Fragmentation-Model The exports induce - directly and indirectly - output of goods in the national economy. The losses of outputs in the national economy, which in case of the displacement by imported goods occur, amount to goods necessary for the (hypothetical) total domestic production of these imported goods: where: (5) x ex = (I-A d ) -1 * ex (6) x im = (I-A d ) -1 * im x ex x im Total export-induced production, Total import-adequate production.

10 German Exports and Imports between 1985 and 2002 a (without re-exports) Euro bn Exports Imports Balance Memo: Export rate a in % a The figures for the year 1985 refer to the Federal Republik of Germany before reunification. b Share of exports (without re-exports) in GDP. Sources: Federal Statistical Office of Germany; own calculations.

11 Composition of Exports - In % Germany Netherlands France Re-Export Export goods produced domestically Sources: Federal Statistical Office of Germany ; EUROSTAT, own calculations.

12 Total Effects of Exports and Imports on German Employment beween 1985 and 2002 a (without re-exports) Employees in persons Export effects Losses by Imports Balance Memo : Balance in % of total employment a The figures for the year 1985 refer to the Federal Republik of Germany before reunification. Sources: Federal Statistical Office of Germany; own calculations.

13 Exports and Imports of the Netherlands and France (without re-exports) Germany Netherlands France Euro bn Exports Imports Balance Memo: Export rate a in % a Share of exports (without re-exports) on GDP. Sources: EUROSTAT, own calculations.

14 Total Effects of Exports and Imports on Employment in the Netherlands and France (without re-exports) Employees in persons Germany Netherlands France Export effects Losses by Imports Balance Memo : Balance in % of total employment Sources: EUROSTAT, own calculations.

15 Components of Total Employment Effects of Exports and Imports in Germany in 2002 a Without re-export. Sources: Federal Statistical Office of Germany; own calculations. Total Export Effect Total Losses by Imports Business services Machinery Motor vehicles, trailers and semitrailers Total Exports a Exports Imports Share of the products (in %) on Employees Total Imports a Chemicals

16 Conclusions for Germany, France and the Netherlands Positive balance between gains due to improving competitive capacities and the losses caused by increasing import content in the total economy. Production of Export Goods and import-adequate production are less labour intensive compared to the average. Import-adequate production is in Germany and in the Netherlands more labour intensive as the export production. The reverse can be observed in France.

17 Thank You for Your Attention