Weak 1Q16 Results, Neutral 2016 年第一季业绩疲弱, 中性

Transcription

1 GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Company Report: COSCO Pacific (01199 HK) Ivan Zhou 周一帆 公司报告 : 中远太平洋 (01199 HK) zhouyifan013593@gtjas.com Weak 1Q16 Results, Neutral 2016 年第一季业绩疲弱, 中性 Shareholders profit increased by 31.4% yoy to US$109 million in 1Q16, higher than expectations. However, if excluding the gain on disposal of all the shares in Florens Container Holdings Limited ( FCHL, representing the container leasing, management and sales, and related businesses of the Group) and its profit for the period, profit attributable to equity holders of the Company decreased by 25.8% to US$43 million, lower than expectations. We update FY16-FY18 earnings estimates to reflect the weak 1Q16 results, which reflect the results of the acquisition of China Shipping Ports and the disposal of container leasing business. We revise down revenue estimates and revise down profit estimates in FY16-FY17 by 10.8% and 17.9%, respectively. FY16-FY18 net profit of CP is expected to be US$275 million, US$266 million and US$296 million, respectively. Comparing with its historical valuation in the past five years (average 9.0x forward PER) and its port peers, we think that the current valuation of CP (10.9x 2016 PER) is not attractive. The growth of terminal business is expected to be slow. As we expected, the SOE reform transactions have negatively affected the Company s recurring net profit and ROE in the short term. Despite of positive long term potential, we still revise down the investment rating to Neutral to reflect the weak fundamentals in the short term and revise down TP to HK$8.30. Our TP represents 11.6x, 11.9x and 10.7x FY16-FY18 PER. 股东净利同比增长 31.4% 至 1.09 亿美元, 高于预期 然而, 如果不计入出售佛罗伦货箱控 股有限公司 ( 佛罗伦货箱, 即公司原来的集装箱租赁 管理及销售, 及相关业务主体 ) 全 部已发行股份溢利及其期内利润, 公司股权持有人应占利润同比下跌 25.8% 至 4,300 万美 元, 较为疲弱 我们更新 净利润预测以反映 2016 年第一季疲弱的业绩, 该期业绩反映了收购 中海码头和出售集装箱租赁业务的影响 我们下调收入预测, 同时分别下调 年 净利润预测 10.8% 和 17.9% 中远太平洋 年净利润预计分别为 2.75 亿 2.66 亿和 2.96 亿美元 相较于公司过去 5 年的历史估值 ( 平均 9.0 倍预测市盈率 ) 和港口同业, 我们认为中远太 平洋当前估值 (10.9 倍 2016 年市盈率 ) 并不吸引 码头业务预计增长缓慢 如我们预计, 国企改革的交易在短期内负面影响公司经常性净利润和净资产收益率 尽管长远有潜力, 我们仍下调投资评级至 中性 以反映短期内基本面疲弱, 同时下调目标价至 8.30 港元 我 们的目标价相当于 11.6 倍,11.9 倍和 10.7 倍 2016 年 年市盈率 Rating: Neutral Downgraded 评级 : 中性 ( 下调 ) 6-18m TP 目标价 : HK$8.30 Revised from 原目标价 : HK$10.90 Share price 股价 : Stock performance 股价表现 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) (30.0) (35.0) % of return Change in Share Price 股价变动 Abs. % 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 Avg. share price(hk$) 平均股价 ( 港元 ) 1 M 1 个月 3 M 3 个月 HK$7.82 (40.0) May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Feb/16 May/16 HSI COSCO PACIFIC LTD 1 Y 1 年 (14.0) (0.3) (26.4) (5.8) (2.4) Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) ( %) (x) (US$) (x) (US$) (%) (%) 2014A (59.9) A F (28.5) F (3.1) F Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 2,966.6 Major shareholder 大股东 China COSCO 44.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 23,198.5 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) months average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 ( 000) 4,925.3 FY16 Net gearing (%) FY16 净负债 / 股东资金 (%) weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高 / 低 / FY16 Est. NAV (HK$) FY16 每股估值 ( 港元 ) 11.3 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6

2 1Q16 net profit increased by 31.4% yoy. Revenue decreased by 2.3% yoy to US$129 million in 1Q16, meanwhile, total throughput increased by 2.9% yoy in 1Q16. However, if excluding throughput of Kumport Terminal in Turkey and Busan Terminal in Korea, both included in the Company s accounts from 1 January 2016, throughput of the Company decreased by 0.1% yoy in 1Q16. Shareholders profit increased by 31.4% yoy to US$109 million in 1Q16, higher than expectations. However, if excluding the gain on disposal of all the shares in Florens Container Holdings Limited ( FCHL, representing the container leasing, management and sales, and related businesses of the Group) and profit for the period, profit attributable to equity holders of the Company decreased by 25.8% to US$43 million, lower than expectations. The Company has agreed to acquire 35% equity interest in Euromax, a terminal operator in Rotterdam. Euromax is wholly owned by ECT Participations. The consideration for the acquisition comprises of million for 35% of the share capital of Euromax and 84 million for 35% of the shareholder s loan of 240 million owed by Euromax to ECT, amounting to a total of million. Euromax is principally engaged in the business of operation of Euromax Terminal Rotterdam, which is located in the area of Maasvlakte I, Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Euromax Terminal Rotterdam is an automatic container terminal which commenced operation in mid It offers terminal and related services to a number of shipping lines and hinterland transport operators. The total area including Phase 1 and Phase 2 is 1.21 million square meters, with a total quay length of 1,800 meters and a draft depth of meters. The current operating capacity is around 2.55 million TEU. The capacity will increase to 3.2 million TEU after the completion of the Phase 2 expansion. The total throughput of the terminal in 2015 was about 2.28 million TEU. Purchasing price is fair for equity interest but it s expensive if including consideration for shareholders loan. The consideration for the acquisition comprises of million for 35% of the share capital of Euromax and 84 million for 35% of shareholder s loan of 240 million owed by Euromax to ECT, and therefore amounted to a total of million. According to the announcement of COSCO Pacific, net profit of Euromax was 4.0 million and 2.8 million in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Price for the equity interest is equivalent to 15.0x and 10.4x FY15 and FY14 PER, respectively, which we think is fair. However, if including consideration for shareholders loan, total consideration for the acquisition is equivalent to 45.5x and 31.6x FY15 and FY14 PER, respective, which we think is over-priced. Port throughput of the Company slowly grew. The Company reported its port throughput data. For the first four months of 2016, cumulative throughput for ports invested in by the Company was 30.1 million TEUs, up 3.2% yoy, in-line with our expectations. However, if excluding throughput of Kumport and CJ Korea Express Busan, both added to the Company s port portfolio in 2016, throughput of the Company's ports slightly increased by 0.2% yoy for the first four months of Meanwhile, for the first four months of 2016, Bohai Rim reported throughput of 10.5 million TEUs, up 3.6% yoy. Terminals in YRD reported throughput of 6.2 million TEUs, down 4.1% yoy. Ports in Southeast Coast and others reported throughput of 1.3 million TEUs, up 3.0% yoy. Terminals in Pearl River Delta reported throughput of 7.6 million TEUs, down 1.9% yoy. Overseas terminals reported throughput of 4.2% million TEUs, up 25.4% yoy. As the slowdown of exports in China take effect, we expect throughput of the Company to maintain low growth. Revise FY16-FY18 earnings estimates. We update FY16-FY18 earnings estimates to reflect the weak 1Q16 results, which reflect the results of the acquisition of China Shipping Ports and the disposal of container leasing business. We revise down revenue estimates and revise down profit estimates in FY16-FY18 by 10.8% and 17.9%, respectively. FY16-FY18 net profit of CP is expected to be US$275 million, US$266 million and US$296 million, respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be US$0.093, US$0.090 and US$0.100, respectively. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6

3 Table-1: Changes in CP's Earnings Assumptions US$ mn FY16F FY17F FY18F New estimates Revenue Operating profit Net profit EBITDA Margin % 40% 39% 41% ROE 5.8% 5.7% 6.1% Original estimates Revenue n.a. Operating profit n.a. Net profit n.a. EBITDA Margin % 56% 55% n.a. ROE 6.2% 6.3% n.a. Change (% or pts.) Revenue -33.9% -32.8% n.a. Operating profit -45.7% -41.4% n.a. Net profit -10.8% -17.9% n.a. EBITDA Margin % n.a. ROE n.a. Source: The Company, Guotai Junan International. Revise down investment rating to Neutral and revise down the TP to HK$8.30. Comparing with its historical valuation in the past five years (average 9.0x forward PER) and its port peers, we think current valuation of CP is not attractive. The growth of terminal business is expected to be slow. As we expected, the SOE reform transactions have significantly negatively affected the Company s net profit and ROE in the short term. Despite of positive long term potential, we still revise down the investment rating to Neutral to reflect the weak fundamentals in the short term and revise down TP to HK$8.30. Our TP represents 11.6x, 11.9x and 10.7x FY16-FY18 PER. Figure-1: Forward PER BEst P/E Ratio (Next 4 Quarters) Mean +1 ST. DEV ST. DEV May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 Figure-2: Forward EV/EBITDA BEst EV / BEst EBITDA (Next 4 Quarters) Mean +1 ST. DEV ST. DEV May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 6

4 Figure-3: Revenue Estimates of COSCO Pacific Terminal Container leasing US$ mn 1, FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Figure-4: Net Profit Estimates of COSCO Pacific US$ mn FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Table-2: Peers Comparison PE PB ROE(%) D/Y(%) EV/EBITDA ROA(%) Company Stock Code Currency Last price 15A 16F 17F 18F 15A 16F 17F 18F 16F 16F 16F 16F China Merchants Hldgs Intl 144 HK HKD Cosco Pacific Ltd 1199 HK HKD Dalian Port (Pda) Co Ltd-H 2880 HK HKD n.a. 2.7 Tianjin Port Dvlp Hlds Ltd 3382 HK HKD n.a n.a n.a. 2.7 Xiamen International Port-H 3378 HK HKD n.a n.a n.a. n.a. Simple Average Weighted Average Dalian Port Pda Co Ltd-A CH CNY n.a. 2.0 Tianjin Port Co Ltd-A CH CNY n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a. 3.9 Wuhu Port Storage&Transpor-A CH CNY n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Rizhao Port Co Ltd -A CH CNY n.a. 2.7 Tangshan Port Group Co Ltd-A CH CNY n.a n.a n.a. 7.1 Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Hldg-B CH HKD n.a. n.a. 1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Xiamen Port Development Co-A CH CNY n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Shenzhen Airport Co-A CH CNY Jinzhou Port Co Ltd-B CH USD n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Yingkou Port Liability Co-A CH CNY n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Ningbo Port Co Ltd-A CH CNY n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. 5.7 Jiangsu Lianyungang Port -A CH CNY n.a. n.a. n.a. Simple Average Weighted Average Piraeus Port Authority PPA GA EUR n.a n.a. n.a n.a. DP World Ltd DPW DU USD Eurokai Kgaa EUK2 GR EUR n.a Hamburger Hafen Und Logistik HHFA GR EUR Simple Average Weighted Average See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 6

5 Financial Statements and Ratios Income Statement Balance Sheet Year end Dec (US$ m) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Year end Dec (US$ m) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F - Terminal and related business Property, plant and equipment 4,069 4,008 2,680 2,825 2,962 - Leasing, mgmt, sale and related Investment in associates ,391 1,429 1,469 Revenue Investment in JCEs 841 1,192 1,402 1,412 1,424 Land use rights Cost of sales (546) (498) (414) (449) (470) Other non-current assets Administrative expenses (93) (77) (67) (66) (66) Non-current assets 6,287 6,511 5,907 6,094 6,277 Other operating income Other operating expenses (26) (23) (0) (0) (0) Cash and cash equivalents 1, ,135 1,019 1,259 Share of profit of associates and JCEs Trade and other receivables Finance income Inventories Finance costs (73) (64) (58) (56) (59) Current assets 1,330 1,161 1,183 1,288 1,326 Earnings before taxes Taxation (39) (41) (50) (17) (20) Short-term bank borrowings Profit after taxation Trade and other payables Non-controlling interests (20) (21) (19) (15) (18) Other current liabilities Earnings of discontinued operations Current liabilities Net profit attributable to shareholders Long-term bank borrowings 1,430 1,761 1,362 1,462 1,563 Other non-current liabilities DPS (US$) Non-current liabilities 1,655 1,886 1,464 1,566 1,668 Basic EPS (US$) YoY (%) (59.9) 29.5 (28.5) (3.1) 11.3 Non-controlling interests Cash Flow Statement Share capital Year end Dec (US$ m) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Retained earnings Profit before income tax Other reserves 4,646 4,433 4,550 4,674 4,816 Depreciation and amortization Shareholders' equity 4,742 4,863 4,643 4,766 4,913 Other gain/loss (126) (220) (191) (203) (222) BPS(US$) Change in working capital 32 (28) 154 (160) 155 YoY (%) (4.5) Interest received Financial Ratio Tax paid (34) (36) (80) (15) (18) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Net cash flow from operating activities Gross margin (%) SG&A margin (%) Purchases of fixed assets (377) (365) (270) (250) (250) Net income margin (%) Others 99 (202) ROA (%) Net cash flow from investing activities (277) (567) 77 (94) (78) ROE (%) Change in bank loans (153) Fixed asset turnover (x) Dividends paid (77) (96) (447) (108) (113) A/R turnover (x) Others (71) (111) (2) (2) (2) Inventory turnover (x) Net cash flow from financing activities (301) 0 (150) (20) (14) Current ratio (x) Beginning cash balance 1,237 1, ,135 1,019 Quick ratio (x) Effects of changes in exchange rates (7) (32) (33) (35) (37) Total debt / EBITDA (x) Change in cash and cash equivalent (114) (176) 259 (81) 277 Net gearing ratio (%) Ending cash balance 1, ,135 1,019 1,259 Interest coverage ratio (x) See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 6

6 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525 HK), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) Fax: (852) Website: See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 6