Nagacorp Ltd (3918 HK)

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1 Company Research Company update An emerging market game NagaCorp is the only Cambodian company listed in Hong Kong. It is under a monopoly guarantee and operates a casino in Phnom Penh. The unique location saves NagaCorp from the slowdown in Macau gaming. To attract more PRC visitors, the company has aligned with CITS and Macau junkets. Completion of Naga 2 in FY16 will double the number of gaming tables. Based on Bloomberg consensus, NagaCorp is trading at 8.96X and 7.4X EV/EBITDA in FY14 & 15. Monopoly in Phnom Penh with attractive tax policy NagaCorp (Naga) is the only Cambodian company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Naga monopolizes the gaming industry in Phnom Penh and the monopoly is guaranteed until There is no limit on the number of gaming tables and local gaming tax is low at ~USD490,000 per month, subject to annual adjustment of a 12.5% increase until FY1H14 gaming tax accounted for ~1.6% of gross gaming revenue (GGR), much lower than 39% in Macau. Align with CITS to increase PRC visitors. Mass market(public floor gaming tables&electronic gaming machines)increased by 6.7% to US$53.1mn and contributed 52% of GGR in FY1H14. Compared to Macau, Naga s mass market players are more geographically diversified ~40% from Cambodian locals holding foreign passports and 10-20% from Vietnam. Currently, contribution from PRC players is not significant yet. Naga has acquired two A320 (each has 150 seats) to provide flight service between Phnom Penh and 2 nd -tier cities in China and aligns with China International Travel Service(CITS) to attract more mainland visitors to Cambodia. The cooperation with CITS is expected to start in FY4Q14. High commission rates for Macau junkets to boost VIP business In FY1H14, revenue of VIP business recorded impressive growth of 61%, outperformed the operators in Macau. ~75% of Naga s VIP customers come from Malaysia & Singapore and ~10% from China. Therefore, Naga s VIP business is less affected by China s anti-corruption. To lure Macau junkets to bring in PRC VIP players, Naga has introduced a revenue-sharing program for junkets with commission rate high at 2% of GGR compared with 1.25% in Macau. Note that it is sensitive for PRC VIPs to gamble in Macau now. Doubling the number of gaming tables by Naga announced the unaudited operation data for 9 months ended Sept FY14. GGR was up by 26% yoy to US$271.87mn. A new VIP hall was completed in July with 47-table. A VIP rooftop area with 16 tables is scheduled to open in 4Q14, lifting the total VIP tables to 144. Four more VIP private gaming suites with 8 tables are under construction and are scheduled to complete in FY15. In FY16, Naga 2 is expected to double the size of NagaWorld with a total of tables, 2,256 gaming machines, 50 VIP suites and retail facilities. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (US$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue Operating Profit Reported Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EPS (USD) DPS (USD) BVPS (USD) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) Hong Kong / Hotel 14 October 2014 Non rated Target price Last price (13 Oct 14) N/A HK$6.32 Upside/downside (%) HSI Mkt cap (HK$bn/US$bn) 14.4/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 3.99 Free float (%) Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Oct-13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 5.3 (0.2) (8.9) Absolute (US$, %) 5.3 (0.2) (9.0) Relative to HSI (%) (8.6) Source: Bloomberg Company background NagaCorp Limited is a leisure and tourism company with casino operations in Phnom Penh, the capital city of Cambodia. The Company also offers hotel accommodation, manages food and beverage outlets, recreational facilities, entertainmentand retail operations. Source: Bloomberg Maggie Zheng SFC CE No.: AYO zhengmq@guosen.com.hk Kevin Wong SFC CE No.: BCB kevin.wong@guosen.com.hk Jun-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯 金界控股 (3918 HK) 新兴市场的博彩中心 金界控股是于香港上市的唯一一家柬埔寨公司, 主要在金边运营一家赌场 由于独特的地理位置, 公司并未受到澳门博彩业放缓的影响 为了吸引更多中国大陆赌客, 公司开始与中国国旅以及澳门的博彩中介人合作 预计在 FY16 完工的金界 2 期项目将使公司现有赌台规模翻倍 基于彭博一致预期, 金界控股目前 FY14&15 EV/EBITDA 分别为 8.96X 及 7.4X 垄断金边博彩业, 博彩税率极低金界控股是香港上市的唯一一家柬埔寨公司 公司垄断了金边的博彩业, 且该垄断地位可以维持到 2035 年 当地政府对赌台数并没有限制, 且目前公司缴纳的博彩税仅为每月约 49 万美元, 该税金将每年上调 12.5% 直到 2018 年 FY1H14 公司缴纳的博彩税约相当于 1.6% 的总博彩收入, 而澳门博彩税率则高达 39% 与中国国旅合作吸引来自大陆的赌客 FY1H14 大众业务 ( 包括大厅赌台及电子博彩机 ) 同比增长 6.7% 至 53.1 百万美元, 贡献了总博彩收入的 52% 相比于澳门赌场, 公司的大众赌客地理分布上更为广泛, 约 40% 来自持有外国护照的柬埔寨当地赌客,10%-20% 来自越南 目前来自中国大陆的赌客占比并不多 公司购买了两架空客 A320( 每机 150 个座位 ), 以提供往来金边及中国二线城市的航班 并与中国国旅合作, 以吸引更多的大陆游客到柬埔寨 该合作预计于 FY4Q14 落实 为澳门中介人提供高佣金率以推动 VIP 业务增长 FY1H14,VIP 业务增长达 61%, 增速远远超过澳门 VIP 业务 公司约 75% 的 VIP 客户来自马来西亚及新加坡, 来自中国的 VIP 客户仅占约 10%, 因此公司的 VIP 业务受到中国反腐的影响较小 为了吸引澳门中介人介绍更多来自中国的 VIP 客户, 公司引入了与博彩中介人的收入分成制度, 佣金率可达 2%, 而澳门地区仅为 1.25% 而在目前的反贪腐背景下, 来自中国大陆的 VIP 前往澳门赌博会显得敏感而不合时宜 2016 年赌台数目翻倍. 公司公布了未经审计的 FY14 前九个月数据, 总博彩收入上升 26% 至 USD 百万美元 于今年 7 月, 公司新增了一个 VIP 厅, 新增赌台 47 台, 而今年四季度一个位于顶层的 VIP 厅预计完成, 新增赌台 16 台, 届时公司总 VIP 赌台数可达 144 台 2015 年预计新增 4 个 VIP 私人赌厅, 新增赌台 8 台 而 FY16, 金界 2 期预计将公司总赌台数翻倍, 总计可达 台, 博彩机 2256 台,50 个 VIP 包间以及新增零售设施 香港 / 旅馆 2014 年 10 月 14 日 未评级 目标价 N/A 收盘价 (13 Oct 14) HK$6.32 Upside/downside (%) 恒生指数 总市值 (HK$/US$bn) 14.4/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 3.99 流通量 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博 股价表现 HK$ Oct-13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 5.3 (0.2) (8.9) 绝对回报 (US$, %) 5.3 (0.2) (9.0) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (8.6) 资料来源 : 彭博 公司簡介 Price(LHS) Jun-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 金界控股有限公司是一家休闲和旅游公司, 其赌场业务位于柬埔寨的首都金边 该公司还提供酒店住宿 管理食品和饮料店 娱乐设施 娱乐和零售业务 资料来源 : 彭博 Figure 2: 盈利预测 截至 Dec 31 ( 美元百万 ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 营业额 经营盈利 净利润 实际盈利 每股实际盈利 (USD) 每股股息 (USD) 每股账面价值 (USD) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 郑梦奇证监会中央编号 :AYO zhengmq@guosen.com.hk 黄敬璋证监会中央编号 : BCB kevin.wong@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 Trailing PE band chart HK$ Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 max 17.0X PE(x) 16.8X +1sd 14.9X avg 12.2X -1sd 9.5X min 5.7X Figure 4 Trailing PB band chart max 4.8X +1sd 4.0X PB(x) 3.9X avg 2.9X -1sd 1.7X min 1.4X Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (US$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Financial Ratios 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue Revenue growth (%) Cost of sales (47) (44) (60) (76) (96) Operating profit growth (%) Gross profit Reported profit growth (%) Other income/(expense) (26) (28) (36) (45) (56) Underlying profit growth (%) Operating expenses (17) (31) (32) (41) (47) Underlying EPS growth (%) Operating profit Dividend growth (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Gross profit margin (%) Finance income Operating profit margin (%) Finance expenses Underlying profit margin (%) Associates & JCE Net debt/equity (%) (6.6) (14.2) (18.4) (18.2) (42.0) Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) (6.1) (13.6) (17.4) (17.1) (39.4) Taxation (2) (4) (4) (4) (5) Current ratio (%) Non-controlling interests Dividend payout (%) Net profit Interest cover (x) Other Adjustments on UP Dividend cover (x) Underlying Profit Dupont Analysis 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Tax burden (%) Interest burden (%) Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Balance Sheet (US$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Cashflow (US$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income 0 (1) (2) 0 (1) Non-current assets Change in working capital Inventories Tax paid (2) (4) (4) (4) (5) Debtors & prepayments Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash Operating activities Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (34) (24) (46) (72) (59) Current assets Free cash flow Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities Other investing cashflow (4) (17) (14) 21 0 Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (38) (40) (58) (51) (59) Others New loans raised Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans Net assets Dividends paid (3) (30) (48) (64) (97) Share capital Other financing cashflow Premium & reserves Financing activities (1) (30) (48) (64) 58 Shareholders' funds Inc/(dec) in cash Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year Total equity Foreign exchange effect Cash at end of year Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益 本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员 免责条款 证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 6