Vinda(3331.HK) A fair deal for Vinda shareholders. Company Research

Transcription

1 Company Research 05 November 2013 Vinda(3331.HK) A fair deal for Vinda shareholders SCA s cash offer of HK$11/share for Vinda had become unconditional. Post acquisition, we believe SCA will reap immediate gain from accessing Vinda s valuable distribution network in China while the benefits to Vinda may take times to realize. Vinda may also suffer from sales dilution. We don t see much upside from the cash offer. Downgrade to NEUTRAL. SCA will gain full control and immediate access to Vinda s distribution network. SCA is the world's third largest hygiene product manufacturer with sales of SEK85b (~HK$100b) in FY12. Despite China is SCA s priority market, sales and brand of its flagship Tempo have been weak compared with local players. The acquisition will help SCA to gain full control and immediate access to Vinda s 235 sales office and 1457 distributors across China. In 2012, SCA acquired Everbeauty for introducing its diaper (Libero) and incontinence care (TENA) to China. Benefits to Vinda may take some times to realize. Vinda may benefit from a stable supply of raw materials as SCA owns the entire production chain of tissue products, a stronger market presence in overseas market such as Southeast Asia through SCA s distribution channels and leveraging on SCA s technology know-how in hygiene products to develop its diaper (Babifit) and femine napkins (VIA). However, all these benefits may take some times to realize. Tempo s gain may be Vinda s loss. SCA s Tempo is well known for its quality. In China, 12-pack Tempo hanky is being sold for ~RMB12*, while Vinda s high-end series is priced at ~RMB8*. With same distribution channels, high-end customers may switch from Vinda to Tempo. Currently, Vinda s hanky contributes ~10% of its revenue with yoy growth of ~20%. In the long run, Tempo may dilute sales of Vinda s hanky and even slow down the growth of Vinda s high-end product series. Limited upside from the cash offer price; downgrade to NEUTRAL. Based on SCA s offer of HK$11.00 per share and our EPS estimate of HK$0.65 in FY14, the deal would be transacted at ~16.8X FY14 PE. Given the uncertainties following the acquisition by SCA, we see limited upside from the HK$11 per share cash offer price. We downgrade Vinda to NEUTRAL with TP HK$ NEUTRAL Target price: HK$11.64 Consumer Staple Analyst Maggie, Zheng Mengqi SFC CE No.:AYO zhengmq@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Bloomberg Key Data Price(HK$) Shares Outstanding(m)* Market Cap. (HK$ m)* 11,020 Free float (%) Average Daily Turnover HK$4.89m 52 Week Range 12.38/7.22 Controlling Shareholder SCA Group Holdings BVPS (HK$) 7.96 Debt ratio (%) 32.0 * Source: a Chinese online shopping website for daily necessities Financial Summary Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue (HKD m) Operating Profit (HKD m) Reported Profit (HKD m) Underlying Profit (HKD m) Underlying EPS (HKD) DPS (HKD cent) BVPS (HKD) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) 1.09% 1.43% 1.51% 1.78% 2.15% P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 公司报告 2013 年 11 月 05 日 维达国际 (3331.HK) 收购作价合理, 上升空间有限 爱生雅对维达的现金收购要约已成为无条件 一旦收购完成, 爱生雅将立刻得以进驻维达现有的销售渠道, 而维达从爱生雅获得的协同效益却需要时日才得以兑现 此外, 维达也可能受到爱生雅旗下的金牌产品 得宝 Tempo 的直接竞争 我们认为爱生雅提出的每股 11 港元的收购价作价合理, 维达股价上升空间有限 降级为 中性 爱生雅将立刻得以控制利用维达现有的分销渠道 爱生雅是全球第三大卫生用品生产商,2012 年销售收入达 850 亿瑞郎 ( 约折合 1000 亿港元 ) 虽然爱生雅将中国市场列为公司优先发展的战略方向, 但其旗下的纸巾品牌得宝依然不敌中国国内的一些知名卫生用纸品牌 通过本次收购, 爱生雅得以控制利用维达在中国拥有的 235 家销售处以及 1457 家经销商 实际上,2012 年爱生雅收购全日美后, 也利用全日美的销售渠道将旗下的纸尿片 Libero 以及成人失禁用品 TENA 引入中国市场 维达从收购中的获益尚需时日才能实现 爱生雅集团拥有生活用纸生产的全产业链, 因此维达或可以通过爱生雅获得稳定的纸浆原材料供给, 此外维达也可能通过爱生雅的渠道拓展海外市场, 例如东南亚市场 此外, 维达一直以来都在积极开发纸尿片 贝爱多 以及女性卫生巾用品 薇尔, 而爱生雅又拥有吸收性卫生用品的研发技术, 因此维达可以利用爱生雅的研发技术进一步改进产品 然而对于维达而言, 这些协同效益需要时日得以兑现, 在短期内难以立刻受益 得宝所得或为维达所失 爱生雅旗下的纸巾品牌 得宝 长期以来以其突出的质量获得了很强的消费者美誉度 在中国,12 包装的得宝手帕纸售价约为 12 元 *, 而维达的高端产品系列售价约为 8 元 * 而现在两者的销售渠道趋向一致, 我们认为高端客户很容易由维达转向得宝 目前, 维达手帕纸的销售收入占比约为 10%, 年增长率约 20% 长期而言, 得宝可能抢占维达的高端客户, 使得维达高端产品系列的销售增长放缓 上升空间有限, 下调为 中性 评级 根据爱生雅的现金收购价每股 HK$11, 基于我们预测的 2014 年维达每股盈利 0.65 港元, 此次收购的交易价相当于 FY2014 市盈率 16.8 倍 基于维达被爱生雅收购后的协同效益的不确定性, 我们下调评级至 中性, 目标价 HK$ 盈利预测 分析师 中性 目标价 : HK$11.64 郑梦奇证监会中央编号.:AYO zhengmq@guosen.com.hk 股价表现 资料来源 : 彭博 股票数据 必选消费品 收盘价 ( 港币 $) 流通股本 ( 百万 )* 998,3 总市值 ( 港币 $ 百万 )* 110,20 流通量 (%) 日均成交额 HK$4.89m 52 周最高 / 最低 12.38/7.22 主要控股股东 SCA Group Holdings 每股净资产 ( 港币 $) 7.96 负债率 (%) 32.0 * 资料来源 : 一号店, 中国一网上购物商城, 主要出售日常用品 截至 31/ A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 ( 港币百万 ) 经营盈利 ( 港币百万 ) 账面盈利 ( 港币百万 ) 实际盈利 ( 港币百万 ) 每股实际盈利 ( 港币分 ) 每股股息 ( 港币分 ) 每股账面价值 ( 港币 ) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 1.09% 1.43% 1.51% 1.78% 2.15% 市净率 (x) 资料来源 :

3 维达国际 (3331.HK) 2013 年 11 月 05 日 Financial Summary Profit & Loss (HKD m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F -Toilet paper Revenue growth (%) 32.3% 26.4% 16.9% 22.6% 21.2% -Soft pack Operating profit growth (%) 9.1% 53.3% -0.3% 15.0% 18.6% -Hanky Reported profit growth (%) 10.0% 32.3% 1.9% 17.7% 21.3% -Others Underlying profit growth (%) 10.0% 32.3% 1.9% 17.7% 21.3% Revenue Underlying EPS growth (%) 7.1% 26.1% 1.9% 17.7% 21.3% Cost of sales Dividend growth (%) -2.5% 32.1% 5.2% 17.7% 21.3% Gross profit Dividend payout (%) 20.8% 29.2% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Other net income Gross profit margin (%) 27.2% 30.8% 28.9% 28.4% 28.1% SG&A expenses Operating profit margin (%) 10.6% 12.9% 11.0% 10.3% 10.1% Operating profit Underlying profit margin (%) 8.5% 8.9% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% Finance costs ROE (%) 17.2% 12.9% 12.0% 12.8% 13.9% Finance income ROA (%) 8.4% 6.8% 6.1% 6.2% 6.6% Associates & JCE Net debt/equity (%) 39.5% 32.0% 49.9% 56.8% 56.7% Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) 9.0% 8.0% 6.6% 7.1% 5.2% Taxation Current ratio (%) 147.6% 123.1% 135.6% 156.0% 166.8% Non-controlling interests Interest cover (x) Net profit Dividend cover (x) Balance Sheet (HKD m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash Flows (HKD m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income Non-current assets Others Inventories Change in working capital Debtors & prepayments Tax paid Bank deposits & cash Operating activities Others Purchase of non-current assets Current assets Disposal of non-current assets Bank & other borrowings Associates & JCE (net) Trade & payables Interest received Taxation Dividends received Current liabilities Investing activities Bank & other borrowings New loans raised Others Repayment of loans Non-current liabilities Dividends paid Net assets Others Share capital Financing activities Premium & reserves Inc/(dec) in cash Shareholders' funds Cash at beginning of year Non-controlling interests Foreign exchange effect Total equity Cash at end of year Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Vinda (3331.HK) November 5, 2013 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4

5 Vinda (3331.HK) November 5, 2013 信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益 本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员 免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 5