经营稳健, 新并购落地. BUY Unchanged. Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Company. Bringing China to the World. Analyst

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1 SWS Co. Ltd 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Company Bringing China to the World 23 March 2018 BUY Unchanged Market Data: March, 22 Closing Price (HK$) 9.70 Price Target (HK$) HSCEI 12,428 HSCCI 4, week High/Low (HK$) 12.40/8.88 Market Cap (US$m) 1,602 Market Cap (HK$m) 12,578 Shares Outstanding (m) 1,297 Exchange Rate (Rmb-HK$) 1.24 Price Performance Chart: 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Source: Bloomberg CR Phoenix Hang Seng China Ent Index Analyst Jill Wu A AXT645 (+86) Related Reports "Risk factor CHINA RESOURCES PHOENIX HEALTHCARE (1515:HK)" March 1, 2018 "Hospital discharge CHINA RESOURCES PHOENIX HEALTHCARE (1515:HK)" January 29, 2018 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report ( target ), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. 经营稳健, 新并购落地 CHINA RESOURCES PHOENIX HEALTHCARE (1515:HK) Financial summary and valuation E 2019E 2020E Revenue (Rmbm) 1, , , , , YoY (%) (8.04) Net income (Rmbm) (1,506.96) YoY (%) - - (13.62) EPS (Rmb) (1.67) Diluted EPS (Rmb) (1.67) ROE (%) (43.14) Debt/asset (%) Dividend Yield (%) PE (x) PB (x) EV/Ebitda (x) Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. 华润凤凰医疗 17 年净利润为 4.21 亿元, 核心净利润为 3.79 亿元, 同比增长 51%, 略低于 我们 4.01 亿元核心净利润预期 此外, 假设并购的华润健康的医院于 16 年初开始贡献利 润,2017 年公司经营利润的内生增速为 24%, 达到 6.09 亿元 经营稳健, 对抗政策影响 尽管国内大多数地区已经执行 两票制 和 零加成 政策, 2017 年, 公司旗下医院的收入仍实现了 7.1% 的同比增长 2017 年公司整体门诊人次和住院 人次分别同比增长 3.2% 和 4.1%, 意味着次均收入提升约 3-4 个百分点 利润率改善空间大 按照医院收入口径, 盈利性医院 ( 主要为健宫医院 ) 约占公司整体医院 收入的 10%, 拥有举办权的医院 ( 即并购的华润健康的医院 ) 约占整体医院收入的 42%, 而 IOT 医院约占 48% 此外, 盈利性医院 拥有举办权的医院以及 IOT 医院的的经营利润率分 别为 17.1% 5.4% 和 11.9% 拥有举办权的医院目前经营利润率较低 然而, 我们相信, 随 着公司对于这些医院的供应链进行持续整合, 拥有举办权的医院的盈利能力将会得到显著改 善 例如, 公司自 17 年下半年开始对武钢医院的供应链业务进行整合, 我们预期该医院 18 年的利润贡献将将显著提升 强化对北京地区其他医院的控制力 除燕化医院之外, 公司对于北京地区其他主要医院的控 制力有所加强 近期, 华润集团 华润凤凰医疗 京能集团 ( 即京煤医院的举办人 ) 以及北 京建工集团 ( 持有健宫医院 20% 的股权 ) 的管理层进行了会面, 商讨深入合作, 共同加强医 院管理与建设 加快医院网络扩张 3 月 22 日, 公司宣布获得泰安医院 20 年的 IOT 权利, 未来计划将泰安 医院建设成为一家以脑科和心血管科为特色的二级综合医院 此外, 华润凤凰医疗享有华润 集团的背书, 我们认为公司有望实现医院网络的快速扩张 公司管理层目标于 2020 年之 前, 实现总运营床位数翻番, 从目前的约 1.2 万张扩张至 2.4 万张 维持买入评级 假设燕化医院自 18 年初开始不再贡献利润, 我们将 2018 年的稀释每股收益 从 0.30 元下调至 0.28 元 ( 同比下滑 15%),2019 年的稀释每股收益从 0.39 元下调至 0.36 元 ( 同比增长 29%), 预计 2020 年的稀释每股收益为 0.46 元 ( 同比增长 28%) 我们维 持目标价 13.0 港币, 对应 29 倍 19 年市盈率 目标价对应 34% 的上涨空间, 维持买入评 级

2 Investment Highlights: China Resources Phoenix Healthcare reported 2017 net profit of Rmb421m and recurring net profit of Rmb379m (+51% YoY), slightly below our expectation of Rmb401m. Assuming full-year contribution from the injected assets from CR Healthcare in 16A, the firm s organic operating income would have increased 24% YoY to Rmb609m in We exclude profit contribution from Yan Hua Hospital from 18E, and lower our diluted EPS forecasts from Rmb0.30 to Rmb0.28 in 18E (- 15% YoY) and from Rmb0.39 to Rmb0.36 in 19E (+29% YoY), while forecasting Rmb0.46 in 20E (+28% YoY). We maintain our target price of HK$13.00 (29x 19E PE). With 34% upside, we maintain BUY. Robust business. Despite the implementation of the two-invoice scheme and zero-markup policy in most regions in China, CR Phoenix s managed hospitals still delivered 7.1% YoY increase in hospital revenue in 17A. Outpatient visits grew 3.2% YoY while inpatient visits rose 4.1% YoY in 17A, indicating 3-4ppt improvement in revenue per patient visit over the same period. Margin upside. For-profit hospitals (mainly Jiangong Hospital) accounted for 10% of total hospital revenue, vs 42% for sponsored hospitals (ie, hospitals acquired from CR Healthcare) and 48% for Invest-Operate-Transfer (IOT) hospitals. Meanwhile, operating profit margin of profit hospitals reached 17.1%, while that of sponsored hospitals amounted to 5.4% and that of IOT hospitals came to 11.9%. We see large margin upside for sponsored hospitals as the company gradually integrates the supply chain of these hospitals. The firm started to consolidate the supply chain of Wugang Hospital in 2H17, indicating significant incremental contribution from the hospital in 18E. Strengthened control over other hospitals in Beijing. We notice that the management of CR Group, CR Phoenix, Power Beijing Group (the sponsor of Jingmei Hospital), and Beijing Construction Engineering Group (which holds a 20% stake in Jiangong Hospital) have recently met to discuss strengthened cooperation. Accelerating hospital network expansion. CR Phoenix announced that it won 20-year IOT rights for Tai an Hospital. The company will develop the hospital as a grade-ii general hospital featuring neurology and cardiology. Moreover, with support from central state-owned enterprise CR Group, we expect CR Phoenix to expand its hospital network nationwide rapidly. Management expects its total number of operating beds to double from c.12,000 to c.24,000 by 2020E. Maintain BUY. We exclude profit contribution from Yan Hua Hospital from 18E, and lower our diluted EPS forecasts from Rmb0.30 to Rmb0.28 in 18E (-15% YoY) and from Rmb0.39 to Rmb0.36 in 19E (+29% YoY), while forecasting Rmb0.46 in 20E (+28% YoY). We maintain our target price of HK$13.00 (29x 19E PE). With 34% upside, we maintain BUY. Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1

3 Appendix Consolidated Income Statement Rmbm E 2019E 2020E Revenue 1,533 1,878 1,727 2,005 2,330 Cost of Sales (1,126) (1,209) (1,086) (1,185) (1,288) Gross Profit ,042 Other Income Selling/General/Admi. Expenses (172) (212) (195) (215) (235) Ebitda Ebit Finance Costs (0) (2) (11) (32) (62) Profit before tax (1,452) Income tax expense (47) (130) (124) (158) (201) Minority interests (7) (9) (7) (10) (12) Profit for the year (1,507) Source: Company data, SWS Consolidated Cash Flow Statement Rmbm E 2019E 2020E Profit before taxation (1,452) Plus:Depr. and amortisation Finance cost Losses from investments (36) (60) (60) (60) (60) Change in working capital (36) (20) 89 (4) (4) Others 1,696 (152) (124) (158) (201) CF from operating activities Capex (42) (50) (50) (50) (50) Other CF from investing activities 163 (540) (940) (1,540) (1,540) CF from investing activities 120 (590) (990) (1,590) (1,590) Equity financing Net change in liabilities ,000 1,000 Dividend and interest paid (83) (116) (120) (172) (239) Other CF from financing activities (15) CF from financing activities (99) Net cash flow 246 (189) (237) (254) (163) FCFF FCFE ,425 1,554 Source: Company data, SWS Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2

4 Consolidated Balance Sheet Rmbm E 2019E 2020E Current Assets 1,654 2,114 1, Bank balances and cash 1, Trade and other receivables Inventories Other current assets Long-term investment PP&E Intangible and other assets 3,853 4,015 5,594 7,173 8,752 Total Assets 6,448 6,914 7,556 8,930 10,400 Current Liabilities ,356 2,394 3,439 Borrowings ,571 2,571 Trade and other payables Other current liabilities Long-term liabilities Total Liabilities 1,091 1,313 1,692 2,730 3,775 Minority Interests Shareholder Equity 5,238 5,482 5,736 6,062 6,476 Share Capital Reserves (1,128) (815) (560) (234) 180 Total Equity 5,358 5,602 5,864 6,199 6,625 Total Liabilities and equity 6,448 6,914 7,556 8,930 10,400 Source: Company data, SWS Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 3

5 Key Financial Ratios Ratios per share (Rmb) E 2019E 2020E Earnings per share (1.67) Diluted EPS (1.67) Operating CF per share Dividend per share Net assets per share Key Operating Ratios (%) ROIC ROE (43.14) Gross profit margin Ebitda Margin Ebit Margin Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) (8.04) Growth rate of Profit(YoY) - - (13.62) Debt-to-asset ratio Turnover rate of net assets Turnover rate of total assets Effective tax rate (%) (3.26) Dividend yield (%) Valuation Ratios (x) PE PB EV/Sale Source: Company data, SWS Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4

6 Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. The company may analyze the values or market trends of securities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investment analysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for the relevant disclosure materials or log into for the analysts' qualifications,the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates shareholdings. Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Trading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 6-month period. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 12-month period. Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% upside over a 12-month period. Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% downside over a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12-month period. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows: Overweight:Industry performs better than that of the whole market; Equal weight: Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market; Underweight:Industry performs worse than that of the whole market. We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend the relative weightings of investment. The clients decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our sales personnel if you are interested. HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report. Disclaimer: This report is to be used solely by the clients of SWS Co., Ltd. (subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, hereinafter referred to as the Company ). The Company will not deem any other person as its client notwithstanding his receipt of this report. This report is based on public information, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not warranted by the Company. The materials, tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the clients reference only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invitation for the sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments. The clients understand that the text message reminder and telephone recommendation are no more than a brief communication of the research opinions, which are subject to the complete report released on the Company s website ( The clients may ask for follow-up explanations if they so wish. The materials, opinions and estimates contained herein only reflect the judgment of the Company on the day this report is released. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate. At different periods, the Company may release reports which are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein. Save and except as otherwise stipulated in this report, the contactor upon the first page of the report only acts as the liaison who shall not provide any consulting services. The clients shall consider the Company s possible conflict of interests which may affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their investment decisions solely on this report. The clients should make investment decisions independently and solely at your own risk. Please be reminded that in any event, the company will not share gains or losses of any securities investment with the clients. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investment is invalid. The investment and services referred to herein may not be suitable for certain clients and shall not constitute personal advice for individual clients. The Company does not ensure that this report fully takes into consideration of the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual clients. The Company strongly suggests the clients to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the clients particular situations; and to consult an independent investment consultant if necessary. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein forms an investment recommendation to anyone. Under no circumstances shall the Company be held responsible for any loss caused by the use of any contents herein by anyone. Please be particularly cautious to the risks and exposures of the market via investment. Independent investment consultant should be consulted before any investment decision is rendered based on this report or at any request of explanation for this report where the receiver of this report is not a client of the Company. Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 5

7 The Company possesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company reserves all rights related to this report. Unless otherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the materials herein belong to the Company. In the absence of any prior authorization by the Company in writing, no part of this report shall be copied, photocopied, replicated or redistributed to any other person in any form by any means, or be used in any other ways which will infringe upon the copyrights of the Company. All the trademarks, service marks and marks used herein are trademarks, service marks or marks of the Company, and no one shall have the right to use them at any circumstances without the prior consent of the Company. This report may be translated into different languages. The Company does not warrant that the translations are free from errors or discrepancies. This report is for distribution in Hong Kong only to persons who fall within the definition of professional investors whether under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the laws of Hong Kong) (the SFO ) or the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Chapter 571D of the laws of the Hong Kong under the SFO). This report is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) order 2001 (as amended) (the Order ) or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) ( High Net Worth Companies, Unincorporated Associations, etc ) of the Order (All such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). This document is directed only at Relevant Persons. Other Persons who are not Relevant Persons must not act or rely upon this document or any of its contents. Distribution in Singapore If distributed in Singapore, this report is meant only for Accredited Investors and Institutional Investors as defined under Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore. If you are not an Accredited Investor or an Institutional Investor, you shall ignore the report and its contents. The Singapore recipients of the report are to contact the Singapore office of Shenwan Hongyuan Singapore Private Limited at , or in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the report. Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 6

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