Nature and sustainability of the Chinese economy
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1 Nature and sustainability of the Chinese economy Long Guoqiang Development Research Center of the State Council Prepared for the Nomura Foundation Conference Prospects for Growth in the World s Four Major Economies Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. Sept. 11, 2013
2 Contents Review of Chinese economy Will the Chinese economy experience a hard landing? Prospects
3 1978 年 1980 年 1982 年 1984 年 1986 年 1988 年 1990 年 1992 年 1994 年 1996 年 1998 年 2000 年 2002 年 2004 年 2006 年 2008 年 2010 年 2012 年 China s GDP growth: rapid and variable Prev. yr = 100 China's Year-on-Year GDP GDP index Growth Source: China National Statistics Bureau
4 Characteristics Rapid: the economic growth rate has averaged about 10% per year Variable: the growth rate has reached as high as 15.2% (1984) and fallen as low as 3.8% (1990). Decreasing variation: over the latest business cycle, the rate of growth ranged from 7.6% (1999) to 14.2% (2007).
5 % Contribution of demand to growth contribution to GDP growth by different demands Percent Contribution to GDP Growth by Components of Demand Source: China National Statistics Bureau consumption investment net export
6 Driving force: demand side High investment demand is major force contributing to GDP growth Contribution of investment has been too high since 2000 The contribution of net exports decreased from 22.8% in 2005 to -37.4% in 2009, reflecting the re-balancing of the Chinese economy since the Global Financial Crisis
7 % High investment share in GDP investment ratio Share of Investment in GDP Source: China National Statistics Bureau
8 % Re-balancing of the Chinese economy Share net of export/gdp Net Exports in GDP Source: China National Statistics Bureau
9 Driving forces: supply side Intensive capital input: high ratio of investment to GDP Labor shift from low productivity sector (agriculture) to higher productivity sectors Technological progress Opening up: integrating into the global market Market-oriented institutional reform: more efficient
10 Challenges for the Chinese economy Real estate bubble Plays a key role in rapid Chinese economic growth: local government depends on land revenue to finance infrastructure construction Hides guarantees for local investment companies Weakens the real economy: higher cost, higher interest rate, thus lower international competitiveness, and lower interest on real economy of entrepreneurs Generates complaints from urban residents about high housing prices
11 Challenges for the Chinese economy Changing comparative advantage Weakening comparative advantage of labor intensive goods and services Slowing growth rate of exports Contribution to GDP growth turning negative
12 Challenges for the Chinese economy Long term structural issues Lower total factor productivity (TFP): source from structural change to technological progress Lower potential growth rate Aging population
13 Lower potential growth rate According to the experience of other advanced economies such as Japan and South Korea, after GDP per capita reaches 10,000-11,000 international dollars, the growth rate drops by 30% China s aging population and lower TFP will also lower the growth rate of GDP
14 China s GDP reached 24.8 trillion yuan in Q2 2013, up 7.5% year-onyear at comparable GDP prices. In the first half of the year, the economy grew China s at a rate of 7.6%. Economic growth continues to slow down in the second quarter. 100 million RMB % y-o-y 600, , , , , , Service sector Secondary industry Primary industry GDP growth: RHS 第三产业累计值亿元第二产业累计值亿元第一产业累计值亿元 GDP 当季同比 %( 右 ) Source : Wind Information
15 单位 :% Contribution Share of Three Major Demands to GDP Growth In Q2 2013, consumption s contribution to GDP growth was 45.2%; investment s contribution rose to 53.9%; and net exports of goods and services accounted for 0.9%. % Contribution GDP 累计同比贡献率 of consumption : 初步核算数 : 最终消费支出 Contribution GDP 累计同比贡献率 of net : 初步核算数 exports : 货物和服务净出口 Contribution GDP 累计同比贡献率 of investment : 初步核算数 : 资本形成总额 数据来源 :Wind 资讯
16 Understanding the slower growth of the Chinese economy Business cycle: bottom? Plus: Long-term trend of declining growth rate It is unlikely that high growth (10%) can recur
17 China s long-term economic growth Source: DRC & WB, China 2030
18 However, the possibility of a hard landing is low... Because:
19 Lack of inflationary pressure to tighten monetary YoY policy: Growth of China s CPI & PPI Over the last 17 months, the change in the CPI has remained around 2.7% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been negative. % yoy CPI CPI: 当月同比增长 % PPI: PPI: all 全部工业品 industrial : 当月同比增长 goods % Source : Wind Information
20 Return to normal interest rates and reduced pressure in inter-bank money market: After a dramatic increase at the end of June, the 7-day interbank rate declined, swinging between 3.65 and 4.51 in August. % day 银行间回购加权利率 interbank rate :7 天 % 3-mo SHIBOR:3 Shanghai 个月 interbank % offer rate Source: Wind Information
21 单位 :% Sufficient liquidity: M2 growth minus real GDP growth and inflation was 3.7% in Q2, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. % Liquidity 货币环境宽松程度 Real GDP: GDP 累计同比 growth CPI: 当季同比 M2 M2: growth 同比 Note: Liquidity = M2% - GDP% - CPI Source: Wind Information
22 单位 :% Low risk from short-term foreign debt: As of Q1 2013, short-term debt accounted for 73.95% of China s total external debt outstanding and 16.43% of foreign reserves. With roughly 75% of short-term external debt trade-related, a rise in its share will not pose a threat to the country s external account. % % Share 中长期债务 of short-term : 占外债余额比例 debt: LHS Share 短期债务 of long-term : 占外债余额比例 debt: LHS Ratio 短期外债与外汇储备之比 of short-term debt ( to 右 ) forex reserves: RHS Source: Wind Information
23 Ample reserves to handle the impact of hot money : As of June 2013, China s foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.5 trillion, up $54.0 billion from the end of March. Gold reserves have remained at 33.9 million ounces. Moreover, the capital account is not fully convertible. 100 million USD 10,000 oz 40,000 4,000 35,000 3,500 30,000 3,000 25,000 2,500 20,000 2,000 15,000 1,500 10,000 1,000 5, 国家外汇储备亿美元 Foreign exchange 黄金储备万盎司 Gold reserves: RHS ( 右 ) reserves: LHS Source: Wind Information
24 单位 :% Recovering demand: China s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 50.3% in July, 0.2 percentage points higher than June and above the critical point. Meanwhile, the Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index rose 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 54.1%. % 中国制造业采购经理指数 Manufacturing PMI (PMI) 非制造业 Non-manufacturing PMI: 商务活动 BMI Source: Wind Information
25 单位 :% HSBC s Manufacturing PMI for China rebounded to 50.1% in August, 2013, from 47.7% in July, standing above the critical point for the first time in four months. % % HSBC 汇丰制造业 Manufacturing PMI PMI 汇丰非制造业 HSBC non-manufacturing PMI: 经营活动指数 PMI Source: Wind Information
26 单位 :% Continuing strength in the real economy: In July, value-added by China s heavy industry posted 10.3% yearon-year growth and power generation climbed 8.1%. y-o-y % Power 发电量当月同比 generation Value 重工业增加值当月同比 added, heavy industry Source: Wind Information
27 Stable real estate market: The Real Estate Climate Index (RECI) stood at in June, up 0.03 from May. It averaged in Q and reached in July. The Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ECI) hit in Q2, up 1.9 points over the previous quarter ECI RECI Guofang RECI 行业景气指数 RECI : 房地产业企业家信心指数 ECI : 房地产业国房景气指数 RECI for Guofang ( 右 :) RHS Notes: RECI values above 100 indicate more positive climate and below 100 indicate more negative climate. ECI values above 100 indicate more optimism and below 100 indicate greater pessimism. Source: Wind Information
28 Prospects In the short-run, the growth rate of the Chinese economy will be stable, possibly a bit above the 7.5% target set by the government late last year. A hard landing is not likely, although the economy faces many challenges. The Chinese government still has room for further expansionary policies, if needed.
29 Prospects China has enough reserves to handle external shocks. In the longer term, the growth rate may decline to 7% before Wide reforms and further opening-up by the government can be expected in the near term. Innovation and green growth will also be emphasized by the government.
30 Thanks!
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