R. I. T. Gravure Day - April 5, U.S. Annual Paper Capacity (000s short tons) Source: SC Council 9/26/2000
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1 R. I. T Gravure Day - April 5, 25 Source: SC Council 9/26/2 U.S. Annual Paper Capacity 2-23 (s short tons) Newsprint UCG CG CFS Capacity of newsprint is expected to decrease by 2% per year through 23. Coated Gwd is expected to rise to 5.2 Million tons by 3, or 3.4% annually, partly fueled by Bowater s conversion of some of its newsprint to coated and its Nuway Paper venture. Coated Free-sheet will rise by 1.5% annually, compared to 4. annually during the past 1 year period. Source: Pulp&Paper Week 1
2 Total Paper Usage by Market Segment 1% 75% 29% 32% 5% 25% 34% 32% 32% Inserts Catalogs Magazines Coupons Sunday Mags 4% % MM ST 1.5 MM ST 1.9 MM ST 12.1 MM ST 12.8 MM ST Source: Gaptrac 7/9/24 Printing Paper Grade Structure SCA SCA+MFC LWC CFS Gloss NEWS MF SCB SNC65 SNC 7 Brightness 2
3 Source: SC Council 9/26/2 Sunday Newspaper Circulation (Millions of Copies) Sunday newspapers, the major vehicle for preprinted advertising inserts, have continued to decline since 199. This represents a long-term concern for advertisers, and their paper suppliers, who seek the least expensive and effective way to reach consumers Source: Gaptrac 7/9/24 3
4 Retail Sales ($ Millions) Ex-Autos, Per month through December 24 (M/M %) Retail sales excluding autos increased.5% in November, which was greater than expected. Year over year, sales exauto growth was a strong 8.6%. The positive results were led by building supply and general merchandise stores, while department stores showed the weakest results versus last year. Economist said that this slowing pace of consumption was expected due to refinance money becoming more difficult to attain, spent tax refunds and cash from year-end bonuses drying up. However, improving labor income from job growth and the holiday season will help alleviate this Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 $ Millions M/M % Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct /4/25 Magazine Ad Pages Through December 24, in thousands of pages 23 did not represent a recovery year for magazine advertising, as an optimistic start to the ad year waned into the doldrums at the end of the year. 24 started slowly, but advertising pages are grew significantly, albeit in comparison to an incredibly weak market in Ad Pages are up 1.4% YTD vs % 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% -4.% -6.% % Y/Y Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -8.% Source: PIB 1/13/25 4
5 Weight of Mail - Standard A (3rd) Thousands of Tons - 24 Data Prorated from Q2 Postal rate increases: 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 21, 22. In all but the boom year of 1999, postal increases have been followed by decreases in the weight of mail. Recovery has usually ensued thereafter. On a prorated basis, catalog deliveries will be strong in 24. 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, ' '1 '2 '3 '4 Q2 Source: USPS/GAPTRAC 11/12/4 Major Commercial Printers % of revenue mix by print segment/service 1% Catalog PublicationsAds DM Dir Other 8% 6% 4% 2% % QW RRD Vertis Quad Banta ACG Brown Perry Judd Arandell Trend Rhodes Source: Printning Impressions 1/15/23 5
6 Source: SC Council 9/26/2 Index of Leading Indicators Through Dec. 24 (1996=1) Jan '2 Mar '2 May '2 Jul '2 Sep-2 Nov-2 Jan-3 Mar-3 May-3 Jul-3 Sep-3 Nov-3 Jan-4 Mar-4 2/4/25 May-4 Jul-4 Sep-4 Nov-4 The leading index rose.2%, ending five consecutive months of decline. The 4.5% increase in the S&P 5 stock index helped the cause. The five months of decline had caused concern of falling back into recession, but the Conference Board said that the decline in the index was not deep enough or long enough to signal a recession. The rule of thumb for this index is that it will predict a recession after three months of decline in a row, with a 3.5% annualized decrease over a six-month period. 6
7 ISM Index Through January 25 (Formerly NAPM) The ISM index increased to 58.6 in December, which was influenced mainly by a large in crease of new orders reported and increased order backlogs. This beat expectations. Manufacturing is still expanding in a way that has led to an improved employment picture, especially with orders increasing, which means that they manufacturers will not have to decrease production. This index is a leading indicator of the overall economic environment Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 2/3/25 Consumer Confidence Through December 24 (1985=1) Consumer confidence surged unexpectedly in December, as their view of current and expected conditions rose. Expectations for business and income improved, while the view of the labor markets continues to be a drag. Economists see the trend continuing to improve with continued economic recovery and job growth acceleration heading into the fall Jan- May- Sep- Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 12/3/24 Jan-2 May-2 Sep-2 Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan-4 May-4 Sep-4 7
8 Gross Domestic Product (Year over Year %, Real as of Q4 24) Real GDP for Q3 24 was revised up to 4%, and it was above the long term potential of the U.S. economy, which is -3.5%. The economy needs sustained growth above the long-term trend in order to close the output gap, raise utilization rates and generate stronger job growth. 4% GDP growth is healthy but teeters on being not strong enough to generate significant job growth Q Q Q Q Q1 21 Q Q Q Q Q Q1 24Q3 2/3/25 Employment Situation Through January 25 The labor market grew by 157, jobs in December, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4%. New jobs have continued to grow since September of 23, but the gains of late have been weaker than expected Jobs Created s (Left Axis) Total Jobs Held s(right Axis) 133, 132,5 132, 131,5 131, 13,5 2.2 million jobs were created in 24, averaging 185,92 per month, which is less than the rule of thumb for economic expansion, which suggests that 2, jobs per month need to be created. As such, job creation was enough to absorb new entrants, but it was not enough to bring back displaced workers Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr-1 Sep-1 Feb-2 Jul-2 Dec-2 2/4/25 May-3 Oct-3 Mar-4 Aug-4 Jan-5 13, 129,5 129, 128,5 128, 8
9 Thank You! Source: SC Council 9/26/2 9
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