Q presentation. 6 November 2008

Transcription

1 presentation 6 November

2 presentation Christian Rynning-Tønnesen President and CEO Webcast 6 November

3 : Improved result, reduced debt EBITDA NOK 712 mill +18% vs +43% adjusted for Korea sale Net result NOK 1.2 bn Mainly accumulated translation differences from Korea sale with no cash or equity impact and unrealised losses from currency hedging Net debt reduced by NOK 3 bn by the end of Korea cash proceeds: NOK 3.8 bn Currency/other: NOK -.8 bn Cash deposits NOK 5.7 bn Mill NOK Q4 EBITDA ex. Korea 27 Q4 Korea 3

4 Key financial results EBITDA Key figures 27 NOK million 12 EBITDA ex. Korea Korea Operating revenue EBITDA comparable* EBITDA EBIT before special items Profit after tax (1 212) (35) EBITDA improving in spite of Korea sale: +NOK 215 mill (43%) comparable to Higher prices NOK 1 mill vs Cost cuts NOK 9 mill Currency gains contributes NOK 5 mill Costs on fibre and chemicals still rising in 27 Q4 *) Ex. Korea Net result NOK 1.2 bn Unrealised losses from currency hedging etc. ~ - NOK 35 mill Korea: accumulated translation differences ~ - NOK 8 mill No cash or equity impact

5 NOK 2.75 bn annual effect gained from the improvement program NOK million 1-1 "Clean" EBITDA, quarterly average 25 Sales price development Cost increases 45 Other (incl FX, Profitability vol.adjustm+ Improvement Corp.Improvemt) "Clean" EBITDA 5 Target is NOK 3 bn in annualized improvement compared to 25

6 Result segments (EBITDA) NOK mill Europe Asia* Australasia South America Korea Magazine 6 *) ex Norske Skog Korea

7 Newsprint Europe 7 EBITDA Q4 EBITDA NOK mill Price development newsprint Jan '98 Jan '99 Jan ' Jan '1 Jan '2 Average Newsprint 45 gsm Euro/t (Nom.) Jan '3 Jan '4 Jan '5 Germany Jan '6 Jan '7 Jan '8 Source: RISI Key figures NOK million 27 Operating revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin % Deliveries 1 ton Slight improvement vs : Improving results due to cost cuts and currency effects Closing of two paper machines in important factors YTD vs 27: Weaker result due to lower prices Demand down 3% YTD Good market balance

8 Newsprint Asia EBITDA Q4 EBITDA NOK mill Key figures NOK million 27 Operating revenue EBITDA EBITDA ex Korea EBITDA margin % Deliveries 1 ton Norske Skog Korea Weak result vs : Comparable result is better due to higher prices YTD vs 27: Price hikes has partly offset cost increases Demand China (YTD August) +7.2% 8

9 Newsprint Australasia EBITDA Q4 EBITDA NOK mill Key figures NOK million 27 Operating revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin % Deliveries 1 ton Moderately decreased result vs Reduced EBITDA due to 7% price reduction on standard newsprint in Australia from Cost reductions mainly on energy partly offsets lower paper prices YTD vs 27: Weaker results because of lower prices Demand down 7.3% YTD, mainly caused by customer inventory changes 9

10 Newsprint South America EBITDA Q4 EBITDA NOK mill Key figures NOK million 27 Operating revenue EBITDA EBITDA ex. Tax refund EBITDA margin % Deliveries 1 ton Price development newsprint Jan '98 Jan '99 Jan ' Jan '1 Newsprint Brazil 48.8g (USD/mt) Jan '2 Jan '3 Jan '4 Jan '5 Jan '6 Jan '7 Source: NSG Jan '8 Improved result Tax refund NOK 37 mill in vs : Improved result due to higher prices YTD vs 27: Weaker results due to fibre and energy costs Demand +11% YTD, increased customer inventories Tight market balance

11 11 Magazine EBITDA Q4 EBITDA NOK mill Price development magazine Jan '98 Jan '99 Jan ' Jan '1 Average SC Roto 56 gsm Euro/t (Nom.) Average LWC Offset 6 gsm Euro/t (N ) Jan '2 Jan '3 Jan '4 Jan '5 Germany Germany Jan '6 Jan '7 Jan '8 Source: RISI Key figures NOK million 27 Operating revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin % Deliveries 1 ton Higher prices lifted result vs : EBITDA improved due to price increases and currency changes YTD vs. 27: Improved results due to higher prices SC demand: World +3.8% YTD, Europe +6.3% LWC demand: World down 1.6% YTD, Europe down.3%

12 Cash flow from operations *) Mill NOK Q4 vs : Cash flow down due to increased accounts receivable YTD vs 27: Cash flow is down by NOK 4 mill EBITDA down by NOK 2.4 bn, but working capital is reduced in compared with an increase in *) Cash flow from operations, after financial items and taxes

13 Reduced net debt and improved gearing Net debt NOK bn (left axis) Net debt reduced by Gearing (right axis) 25 1,2 NOK 3 bn by the end 1,12 1,7 1,5 of 1 2,96 Korea cash proceeds: NOK 3.8 bn,89,89 Currency/other: NOK -.8 bn,84,8 15 Gearing improved to, Covenant on bank debt:,4 Gearing < ,9 19,1 17,3 16,4 15,7 15,7 12,7 5 Total property sales,2 of approx NOK 7 mill in

14 Improved liquidity 6 5 Cash NOK 5.7 bn total liquidity as of September 29 NOK bn 1-1 -,6-1,6 Debt maturity schedule by ,1 -,2-1,1 -,1-1,1-2 Debt ,5-3,7-4,

15 Value of energy portfolio NOK millions Portfolio: Physical contracts in Norway and Brazil Financial contracts on New Zealand Reduced values in Norwegian contract balanced by higher values of energy contracts in Brazil 1 Q

16 Impact of NOK depreciation 1 Norske Skog currency index Q Q Q per cent change in NOK against NSIs trade weighted currency index ~ +NOK 6 mill EBITDA per year 16

17 Meeting the recession: Defend price level IMF-prognoses from 2 Oct on GDP-growth advanced economies 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Reduced GDP growth in all markets is expected 1, Consequences: Declining paper demand Higher capital costs Reduced costs on fibre, energy and chemicals Actions: Maintain a healthy supply/demand balance Adjust capacity as necessary Keep strong focus on cost reductions and capital discipline

18 Outlook Positive elements: Prices increase in European newsprint for 29 announced Based on current price and currency conditions, prices increases are expected in Australasia in 29 Reduced costs expected on recovered paper and energy Risks/negative elements: Recession will effect paper demand negatively Currency changes (present levels are favourable) Focus: Further increase in operating margins Achieving NOK 3 billion improvement target by the end of Reduce net debt Swift capacity response to demand development 18

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