The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future
|
|
- Penelope Jenkins
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future Sean Severe Drake University College of Business and Public Administration Iowa Actuaries Club February 14, 2017 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 1
2 Progression of Topics 1 U.S. Economy Since Clearer View of World Economy Since More Uncertain View of Future 4 Federal Reserve Going Forward Introduction The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 2
3 Responsibilities of Federal Reserve Fed has many mandates to ensure health of the economy Maintain full employment Stabilize prices Dual Mandate Moderate long-term interest rates Stabilize financial markets (since 2009) Mandates sometimes pull Fed in different directions Introduction The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 3
4 Since 2013 Healthy economy since 2013 Adding 213,000 jobs per month Unemployment down to 4.8% from 8% Near short-run and long-run natural rates (NAIRU) GDP growth averaging 2.07% annually Inflation has been around 1.5%; below 2% target Stocks are up (e.g. DJIA up to 20,000 from 13,400) US Economy Since 2013 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 4
5 Job Creation 1/1/2014 2/1/2014 3/1/2014 4/1/2014 5/1/2014 6/1/2014 7/1/2014 8/1/2014 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 2/1/2015 3/1/2015 4/1/2015 5/1/2015 6/1/2015 7/1/2015 8/1/2015 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 2/1/2016 3/1/2016 4/1/2016 5/1/2016 6/1/2016 7/1/2016 8/1/2016 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 Change in Non-farm Payrolls (1000s) 2014:1-2017: Monthly Change 3-Month Moving Average 12-Month Moving Average US Economy Since 2013 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 5
6 Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate and Natural Rates of Unemployment 2013:1-2016: Unemployment Rate Short-Run Natural Rate of Unemployment Long-Run Natural Rate of Unemployment US Economy Since 2013 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 6
7 GDP Introduction US Economy Since 2013 More Certain Less Certain Looking Ahead Conclusion GDP and Economic Growth 2013:1-2016: Yearly Change Quarterly Change US Economy Since 2013 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 7
8 Core PCE Inflation 1/1/2013 3/1/2013 5/1/2013 7/1/2013 9/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 3/1/2014 5/1/2014 7/1/2014 9/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 3/1/2015 5/1/2015 7/1/2015 9/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 3/1/2016 5/1/2016 7/1/2016 9/1/ /1/ Month, 3-Month, and 12-Month Change In Core PCE 2013:1-2016: Month Change 3-Month Change 12-Month Change Fed Target US Economy Since 2013 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 8
9 Stock Indices 01/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2017 DJIA, SP500, and NASDAQ 2014:1-2017: DJIA SP500 NASDAQ US Economy Since 2013 The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 9
10 Year of Clarification GDP growth strong 0.69% 2015:4 growth was low point Stocks have stabilized Highs and lows through 2015; steady growth in 2016 Crude Oil has Stabilized Drop through 2015 to low in 2016:1 Euro area and China uncertainty has eased Negative Euro rates are positive Yuan devaluation one year ago More Certain The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 10
11 Oil Prices $ per Barrell 2013:1-2017: Brent Crude Oil 3-Month Average More Certain The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 11
12 10-Year German Bond Yield 2015: :2 More Certain The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 12
13 Economic Uncertainty 01/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2017 Strong USD depresses exports Inflation still below 2% target, but trending up Euro/USD Yuan/USD Peso/USD Less Certain The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 13
14 Political Uncertainty Less Certain The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 14
15 Normalization of MP Interest Rates FOMC increased target rate from 0.50% to 0.75% on December 14, 2016 Held constant in January 2017 The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. Many anticipate rates up to 2% within a few years Crisis Policies Policies implemented for crises have been over since 10/2014 These programs have left Fed with large asset balance Gradually undo these programs by allowing securities to mature without rollover Once rates have gradually risen Looking Ahead The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 15
16 Federal Funds Rate 2014:1-2017: Looking Ahead The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 16
17 Total Federal Reserve Assets 1/1/2008 4/1/2008 7/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/ /1/2016 Millions of USD 2008:1-2016: Looking Ahead The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 17
18 Conclusion U.S. has experienced a near-complete recovery from crisis 2016Q1 was very uncertain time in global economy Uncertain response from Federal Reserve Resolution in last year Questions in other areas 2017 and forward New evidence (may) again shift direction Conclusion The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 18
19 Thank You Questions or Comments? Contact me: Sean Severe Conclusion The Certainty of Uncertainty: Forecasting Economic Indicators into the Near Future 19
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note December 17, 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalization process by
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note 17 December 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalisation process by
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Business & Industry Political Education Committee Columbia, South Carolina
More informationEconomic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017
Economic Update Adrienne C. Slack March 2017 The views expressed are mine, and not necessarily those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System. 2 The Fed s Dual Mandate The Fed is pursuing two objectives
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook Daniel Cooper Federal Reserve Bank of Boston October 14, 2015 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal
More informationMonetary Policy as the Economy Approaches the Fed s Dual Mandate
EMBARGOED UNTIL Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 1:10 P.M., U.S. Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Monetary Policy as the Economy Approaches the Fed s Dual Mandate Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive
More informationEconomic Outlook and Forecast
Economic Outlook and Forecast Stefano Eusepi Research & Statistics Group January 2017 All views expressed are those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
More informationNational Economic Indicators. May 7, 2018
National Economic Indicators May 7, 18 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-7-18 8:31 Q1-18 5 Decomposition
More informationEconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Enterprise Risk Management Symposium Chicago, IL September 3, 214 Spencer Krane Senior Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed here are my
More informationAppendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
Presentation Materials (PDF) Pages 192 to 203 of the Transcript Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Page 1 Top panel Title: Current U.S. 3-Month Deposit Rates and Rates Implied by Traded Forward Rate
More informationDiffusion indices of forecast risks in Summary of Economic Projections From September 2016 FOMC to June 2018 FOMC. Mar '17 FOMC
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
More informationData Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy. Remarks by. Richard H. Clarida. Vice Chairman. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
For release on delivery 8:30 a.m. EST November 27, 2018 Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy Remarks by Richard H. Clarida Vice Chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at The Clearing
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook 1. William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Economic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Builder Chicago, IL May, William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor The Great Recession ended in June, but the economy expanded by just.% over the past year Real
More informationNOVEMBER 30, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
NOVEMBER 30, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Fed Chairman Powell s comments to the Economic Club of New York were misinterpreted, but that s OK. Most likely, the stock
More informationIMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation with United States
Tuesday 12 th July 2016 11:30 am International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Analyst II, First Citizens Research and Analytics Ravi.Kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation
More informationUS Fed raised rates by 25 basis points
Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist 03-2088 8075 afzanizam@bankislam.com.my US Fed raised rates by 25 basis points Facts The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last night concluded
More informationBah Humbug: U.S. Markets Tumble to Yearly Lows After Fed Guidance Projects More Rate Hikes for 2019
Bah Humbug: U.S. Markets Tumble to Yearly Lows After Fed Guidance Projects More Rate Hikes for 2019 December 19, 2018 by Paul Eitelman of Russell Investments Markets hit the rewind button this afternoon
More informationEconomic Update. Platts Aluminum Symposium 2014 Ft. Lauderdale, Florida January 13, Chris Oakley Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta January 2014
1 Economic Update Platts Aluminum Symposium 2014 Ft. Lauderdale, Florida January 13, 2014 Chris Oakley Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta January 2014 2 Summary of the Economic Environment 1. Economic growth
More informationDECEMBER 21, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
DECEMBER 21, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Financial markets were expecting a dovish rate hike from the Fed an increase in short-term interest rates and an indication
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2017 Market Outlook Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth Increasing, Spending Modest, Low Unemployment 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GDP* Q3:
More informationThe Fed and The U.S. Economic Outlook
The Fed and The U.S. Economic Outlook Maria Luengo-Prado Senior Economist and Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston May 13, 2016 Presentation prepared for the Telergee Alliance CFO & Controllers
More informationNational Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017
National Economic Indicators December 11, 17 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 Real Gross Domestic Product Nov-9-17 8:3 Q3-17 5
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016
Prepared by Meketa Investment Group Global Economic Outlook Projections for global growth continue to be lowered, as the economic recovery in many countries remains weak. The IMF reduced their 206 global
More informationMarket Month: April 2017
Market Month: April 2017 The Markets (as of market close April 28, 2017) Equities continued their positive trend in April, spurred by favorable corporate earnings reports, proposed federal tax cuts, and
More informationMacroeconomic Outlook: Ag Lending
Macroeconomic Outlook: Ag Lending James Caton, Ph.D. PCPE Faculty Fellow/ Assistant Professor Ph.D., Economics, George Mason University, 2017 Teaches macroeconomics & international trade Specializes in
More informationabcdefg Introductory remarks by Jean-Pierre Roth News Conference
abcdefg News Conference Zurich, 14 December 2006 Introductory remarks by As stated in our press release, the Swiss National Bank is raising its target range for the three-month Libor with immediate effect
More informationThe Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI North American Conference 5 October, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. USA Steady Growth 3. Europe Growing Slowly 4. China
More informationExploring the Economy s Progress and Outlook
EMBARGOED UNTIL Friday, September 9, 2016 at 8:15 A.M. U.S. Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Exploring the Economy s Progress and Outlook Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve
More informationMarket Month: January 2018
Market Month: January 2018 The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2018) Equities pulled back off of their record-setting gains at the end of January, but not enough to forestall a month of significant
More informationEconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015
EconWatch 21 August 2015 Patricia Oh Swee Ling patricia-oh@ambankgroup.com 603-2036 2240 Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US Investment Highlights Qualms of currency
More informationAPRIL 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
APRIL 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist The economic data reports were mixed, but generally consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales rose 1.6% in
More informationJANUARY 4, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 4, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Volatility remained elevated in the first few days of 2019, reflecting renewed concerns about China and the ongoing uncertainties
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationThe Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
More informationU.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook
U.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook Missouri Government Finance Officers Association Jason Brown Economist The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 26, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Reserve officials see the economic growth and the acceleration of inflation as a good signal to continue to raise interest rate gradually over
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist.
January 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Another Fed Rate Hike in December, Inflation Remains
More informationMacroeconomic projections for Assumptions from the external surrounding. Baseline macroeconomic scenario for
Dimitar Bogov Governor November, Macroeconomic projections for -4 Assumptions from the external surrounding Baseline macroeconomic scenario for -4 Comparison with the previous projection In the period
More informationOUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY
OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY MassDevelopment Conference Current Topics in Tax-Exempt Financing Boston, MA November 3, 2017 Mary A. Burke Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
More informationKEY ECONOMIC AND MARKET INDICATORS
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Latest Report Current Report Previous Report 2017 ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP Q4 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% EMPLOYMENT Non-farm Payrolls (000s) Mar 103 326 2,173 Private Payrolls (000s) Mar 102 320
More informationMarket Month: August 2017
Market Month: August 2017 The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2017) Equities in August saw many peaks and valleys throughout the month, finally rallying at the end of the month. Strong second-quarter
More informationThe Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI Latin American Conference 16 August, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. Latin America Some Improvement
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary April 30, 2012 New Paradigm in Global Growth John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The composition of global economic growth has shifted
More informationMedium-term. forecast
Medium-term forecast Q2 217 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1 813 25 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +421 2 5787 2146 http://www.nbs.sk Discussed by
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
More informationUS FOMC Tampering the speed of FFR hike
Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist 03-2088 8075 afzanizam@bankislam.com.my US FOMC Tampering the speed of FFR hike Facts The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting last night decided
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q3 2015 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY October 2015 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q4 2015 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY January 2016 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationIntermediate Open Economy Macroeconomics
Intermediate Open Economy Macroeconomics Martin Ellison 1 Course preliminaries Lecture notes: I upload them online before class. They are comprehensive and detailed. All material is posted on my webpage:
More informationDECEMBER 7, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
DECEMBER 7, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Two key issues rattled stock market investors: trade policy and the yield curve. The weekend meeting between President Trump
More informationOn Our Radar September 2015
On Our Radar September 2015 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite fell 6.56 percent, 6.25 percent, and 6.85 percent, respectively, in August, which was highlighted by a
More informationEconomic Review - Third Quarter 2015
Economic Review - Third Quarter 2015 The state of the general economy can help or hinder a business prospects and therefore has a direct impact on the value of a business. The economic recovery following
More informationINFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 10 th May Opening Remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 10 th May 2018 Opening Remarks by the Governor Three months ago, the MPC said that an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the next few years would be appropriate
More informationComments on: Economic Outlook for 2013 Beyond the Fiscal Cliff
Comments on: Economic Outlook for 2013 Beyond the Fiscal Cliff Marc Hayford Department of Economics December 3, 2012 Themes in the Outlook 1 st Theme: Substantial Slack in the U.S. economy 16,000 15,000
More informationEuro & talous 1/2011. Monetary policy and the global economy Finland s economic outlook
Euro & talous 1/211 Monetary policy and the global economy Finland s economic outlook Governor Erkki Liikanen 24 March 211 1 Topics Topical issues Global economic forecast Finland s economic outlook 211
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q2 2016 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY June 2016 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationKBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRESENTATION. Defensive August 2017
KBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRESENTATION August 2017 Investment climate Key rate trends and outlook 2,0 2,0 1,5 VS EMU 1,5 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0-0,5-0,5 - - 07-2012 07-2013 07-2014 07-2015 07-2016 07-2017 07-2018
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected
More informationYukitoshi Funo: Economic activity and prices in Japan, and monetary policy
Yukitoshi Funo: Economic activity and prices in Japan, and monetary policy Speech by Mr Yukitoshi Funo, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Hyogo, 23 March
More informationThe Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy: Taking the First Step Towards the Long Run
The Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy: Taking the First Step Towards the Long Run Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Santa Fe, New Mexico June
More informationMalaysia s Exports Performance Steadied in April Despite Sluggish Global Trade
6 June 2016 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2016 Malaysia s Exports Performance Steadied in April Despite Sluggish Global Trade Exports were up by 1.6%yoy in April, higher than consensus. This was largely
More informationU.S. & District Economic Outlook
U.S. & District Economic Outlook Nebraska LEAD Program February 5, 2015 Jason Brown Senior Economist The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal
More informationFigure 1 Global Economic Data
Global perspective Economic Research Research Department ARC Research Team Tel: 966 11 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com Global economic data improves, but outlook remains uncertain Medium-term risks
More informationJULY 2017 Monthly Commodity Market Overview Newsletter. Stock Indexes. By the ADMIS Research Team
JULY 2017 Monthly Commodity Market Overview Newsletter By the ADMIS Research Team Stock Indexes S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs in spite of several bearish economic
More informationWorld Economic outlook
Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil
More informationRaymond James WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Page 1 of 5 June 21, 2013 MARKET COMMENTARY BY SCOTT J. BROWN, PH.D., CHIEF ECONOMIST The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, did not alter its forward guidance on the
More informationQuarterly Market Review: January - March 2018 The Markets (as of market close March 29, 2018)
Quarterly Market Review: January - March 2018 The Markets (as of market close March 29, 2018) The first quarter of 2018 began as the fourth quarter of 2017 ended: with strong market gains. The Nasdaq led
More informationReviewing Monetary Policy Frameworks
EMBARGOED UNTIL 4:25 P.M. Eastern Time on Monday, January 8, 2018 OR UPON DELIVERY Reviewing Monetary Policy Frameworks Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
More information2015 Taiwan Economic Forecast
2015 Taiwan Economic Forecast Ching-Cheng Chang Ray Y. Chou Kamhon Kan Shin-Kun Peng Wen-Jen Tsay Academia Sinica, Institute of Economics December 16, 2014 2015 Taiwan Economic Forecast : Continuing moderate
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
More informationCentral Bank and Monetary Policy Outlook. Edwin M. Truman Nonresident Senior Fellow April 18, 2017
Central Bank and Monetary Policy Outlook Edwin M. Truman Nonresident Senior Fellow April 18, 2017 1 Central Bank and Monetary Policy Outlook I. US monetary policy has passed its turning point, other major
More informationMarket Update. May 19, PFM Asset Management LLC 300 South Orange Avenue Suite 1170 Orlando, FL (407) (407) fax
ket Update 19, 25 PFM Asset Management LLC 3 South Orange Avenue Suite 1170 Orlando, FL 328 (407) 648-2208 (407) 648-1323 fax The Economy: Solid Growth GDP grew at 3.1% in the first quarter Follows 3.9%
More informationThe Forex Market in March 2007
1 The Forex Market in March 2007 US Dollar : USD The US dollar in March continued to weaken from prior month compared with the euro and the yen with exchange rates averaging at US$ 1.3251 per euro and
More informationEconomic Overview. Academic Advisory Council May 6, Spencer Krane Senior Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Overview Academic Advisory Council May 6, 6 Spencer Krane Senior Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The views expressed are my own and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
More informationMarket Month: August 2018 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2018)
Market Month: August 2018 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2018) Favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports helped propel stocks forward in July. Market growth has
More informationMarket Month: July 2017
Market Month: July 2017 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2017) The last day of July saw each of the indexes listed here post gains over their June closing values. Despite slumping tech stocks at
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET ENVIRONMENT THIRD QUARTER 2018
ECONOMIC AND MARKET ENVIRONMENT THIRD QUARTER 2018 THE FIRM S OUTLOOK: SUMMARY ANDCONCLUSION THE ECONOMY» Broadly speaking, the U.S. economy is in very good shape. Growth is faster than it has been in
More informationMacroeconomic Outlook for U.S. Agriculture
Macroeconomic Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Nathan Kauffman Omaha Branch Executive and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City May 18, 216 The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationECON 4325 Wednesday seminar 2016 The presentation package is complete
ECON 4325 Wednesday seminar 2016 The presentation package is complete 1 2 WHAT ARE THE CURRENT STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY? Norges Bank: ECB: Fed: BoE: 0,5 % 0,00 % (0.25% and -0.4 %) 0.25-0.5 % 0,5 % 3
More informationØystein Olsen: The economic outlook
Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook Address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Oslo, 29 March 2011. The address is based
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationThe U.S. Economic Situation and Recent Monetary Policy Developments
The U.S. Economic Situation and Recent Monetary Policy Developments James Bullard President and CEO, FRB-St. Louis Kentucky Day with the Commissioner 18 April 2011 Louisville, KY Any opinions expressed
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts December 17 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed
More informationAlan Bush. November 29, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Alan Bush Financial Forecast November 29, 2018 STOCK INDEX FUTURES Stock index futures surged yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell surprised the markets by delivering dovish comments on U.S.
More informationThe FOMC: Ahead on Results, Behind on Rates
The FOMC: Ahead on Results, Behind on Rates James Bullard President and CEO, FRB-St. Louis 2 October 2014 Tupelo, Miss. Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the
More informationMonetary policy assessment of 12 March 2009 Swiss National Bank takes decisive action to forcefully relax monetary conditions
Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 12 March 2009 Monetary policy assessment of 12 March 2009 Swiss National Bank takes decisive action to forcefully
More informationAgricultural Economic Update
Agricultural Economic Update March 2, 217 Nate Kauffman Omaha Branch Executive and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationThoughts on US Monetary Policy Prepared for Hutchins Center Conference, March 21, 2016
Thoughts on US Monetary Policy Prepared for Hutchins Center Conference, March 21, 2016 Richard H. Clarida Professor of Economics and International Affairs Columbia University Global Strategic Advisor PIMCO
More informationEconomic Outlook Survey September 2015
FICCI s Economic Outlook Survey: GDP growth at 7.6% for 2015-16 Results of FICCI s latest Economic Outlook Survey indicate moderation in GDP growth estimates. Based on the responses received, the median
More informationINTERMEDIATE OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMICS - WINTER
INTERMEDIATE OPEN ECONOMY MACROECONOMICS - WINTER 2019 - Francesco Trebbi 1 Course Preliminaries Lecture Notes: I upload them online before class. They are comprehensive and detailed. All material is posted
More informationThoughts about the Outlook
Thoughts about the Outlook Narayana Kocherlakota President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis White Bear Lake Area Chamber of Commerce White Bear Lake, Minnesota April 12, 2012 Thank you for that generous
More informationWilliam C Dudley: A bit better, but very far from best US economic outlook and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve
William C Dudley: A bit better, but very far from best US economic outlook and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal
More informationThe Economic Outlook and The Fed s Roles in Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
1 The Economic Outlook and The Fed s Roles in Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Main Line Chamber of Commerce Economic Forecast Breakfast Philadelphia Country Club, Gladwyne, PA January 8, 2008 Charles
More informationIntroductory remarks by Thomas Jordan
Berne, 15 December 2016 Introductory remarks by Ladies and gentlemen It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy
More informationResponses to Survey of Primary Dealers Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York April 2012
Responses to Survey of Primary Dealers Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York April Responses to the Primary Dealer Policy Expectations Survey Distributed: 4/12/ Received by: 4/16/ For most questions,
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationImplications of Fiscal Austerity for U.S. Monetary Policy
Implications of Fiscal Austerity for U.S. Monetary Policy Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Conference
More information