Mass Transit Return on Investment

Transcription

1 Mass Transit Return on Investment Twin Cities Case Study presented to presented to: ITED 2014 presented by by: Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Paula Dowell, Ph.D. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. April 2014

2 2030 Regional Transit Masterplan 2

3 Itasca Project Priorities 1 Generating high-quality job growth 2 Advancing a comprehensive and aligned transportation system Itasca project goals Raise economic competitiveness and quality of life Reduce and eliminate disparities 3 Improving our region s education system

4 Extensive Use of Stakeholder Input Derivation of Economic model inputs Development of scenarios Sensitivity analysis Transparent Stakeholder Driven Process Innovative yet Practical Stakeholder Buy-in Credible Results 4

5 Benefit Metrics User benefits» Highway» Transit Economic development» Land use» Connectivity and accessibility Sustainability» Fuel savings» Emissions reductions Livability» Housing costs» Affordable mobility State of good repair 5

6 Key Inputs Travel demand model forecasts Transit planning studies Land use data Socioeconomic data Stakeholder input 6

7 Stakeholder Interviews Strong support for study Mix of comments pushing for more completeness/comprehensive evaluation vs. simplicity and understandability Questions about level of visibility, stakeholder input, target audience Feedback on possible scenarios to address Strong data resources available INTERVIEWS Urban Land Institute (ULI) Minnesota University of Minnesota Center for Transportation Studies Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy Transit for Livable Communities Hennepin County Hennepin County Commissioner s Office & Counties Transit Improvement Board Washington County Minneapolis Regional Chamber of Commerce Metropolitan Council 7

8 Focus Group Business Leaders Important for talent retention and recruitment- comes up in every conversation Key to achieving density necessary to be world class city Must be integrated, multi-modal approach to mobility Regional transportation on every site selection checklist Need for suburb to suburb connectivity 8

9 Focus Group- Diversity Panel Bus will always be work horse of transit system When you help the extremes in society, all benefit Access is the key to opportunity Riders are either going to make money or to spend money Both younger and elderly populations demand more transit so not just for low-income or disadvantaged populations Need for suburb to suburb connectivity 9

10 Regional Build-out Alternatives Build Alternatives Base Build: 2030 Transit Master Plan Elements Accelerated Build: 2030 Transit Master Plan completed by 2023 Build with Land Use Densification: 2030 Transit master Plan with higher land use densities 10

11 Build Alternative Transit Master Plan For Modeling Purposes Only 3 LRT 4 BRT 9 Arterial Bus SW Bottineau Gateway Cedar I35W South Rush I35W North Central, Nicollet, Snelling/Ford Pky, W Broadway, Chicago, East 7 th ST, Robert, West 7 th St, American Note: For final reporting all potential transitways for each category will be identified 11

12 12 Benefits to Highway Users Transit Buildout

13 Transit Trip Impacts 2030 Transit Buildout LRT BUS 13

14 Impact of Focused Growth 2045 Build w/o focused growth Highway Transit 2045 Build w/o focused growth 14

15 Total Efficiency Benefits 2030 Transit System (15 year operating period) Benefit Value (millions 2010$) Travel time and reliability $6,072 - $9,829 Safety $1,212 - $ 3,780 Sustainability $1,984 - $2,665 Vehicle operating cost $155 - $302 TOTAL $9,423 - $16,576 15

16 Benefit Cost Ratio Transit System (15 year operating period) Value (millions 2010$) Total benefits $9,423 - $16,576 Costs (Capital and O&M) $4,218 Benefit Cost Ratio Net Present Value (NPV) $5,205 - $12,358 Source Cambridge Systematics based on MetCouncil TDM output 16

17 Transit System Benefit Cost Ratio 15 year forecast period Base 2030 Build-out Low Accelerated build-out 2030 build-out with TOD High Low High Low High

18 Accessibility 30 Minute Commute 18

19 Accessibility Transit System Increases labor and population pool with access to employment centers within 30-minute commute Additional Employment Additional Population ,650 6, ,890 12,420 Source: American Community Household Survey and TDM output 19

20 Livability/Equality Metric- Affordable Mobility Increased mobility for minority, low-income and disabled population Benefits arise from reduced transportation costs and reduction in foregone trips 20

21 Affordable Mobility 2030 Transit System, Opening Year Additional People with Access to Transit Relation to SWLRT Stations Non-White Population Workers w/ No Vehicles Population Below Poverty Line Within 10 minute walk 157,550 19,056 90,880 Source: Analysis using TDM and data from American Community Household Survey 21

22 Transit Economic Impact 15 year forecast period Metric Business output (millions $2010) $248 - $913 $718- $1882 Employment (FTE) 2,237 6,620 5,444 13,194 22

23 Internal Rate of Return - ROI 23

24 Outcomes Developed regional collaborative program Corridors of Opportunity Region maintained state funding for transit Mobilized private sector support for transit Co-chair of study current MnDOT Director 24

25 25 Paula Dowell Director Transportation Economics Cambridge Systematics