Growth Management Workshop March 5, Arvin Prasad, Director Integrated Planning Division Corporate Services

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1 Growth Management Workshop March 5, 2015 Arvin Prasad, Director Integrated Planning Division Corporate Services 1

2 (and 2041)

3 Average Annual Population Growth, Average Annual Population Growth 40,000 35,000 35,345 30,000 28,601 30,635 28,274 AverageAnnual Growth ,000 23,480 23,746 23,006 24,071 27, 145 people 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,

4 700,000 Historical Employment Employment , , , , , ,

5 Peel: Founded 1974 Economic Cycles Chronology of Canadian Recessions since 1926 Start End April 1929 February 1933 November 1937 June 1938 August 1947 March 1948 April 1951 December 1951 July 1953 July 1954 March 1957 January 1958 March 1960 March 1961 December 1974 March 1975 January 1980 June 1980 June 1981 October 1982 March 1990 April 1992 October 2008 May 2009 Source: Turning Points. CD Howe Institute, 2012 Recession Severity Scale Worst Least Worst 5

6 Average Annual Employment Growth, Average Annual Employment Growth 25,000 22,600 20,000 15,000 12,400 12,580 14,820 14,840 14,800 AverageAnnual Growth , 475 jobs 10,000 8,560 7,200 5,

7 7 Forecasted vs. Actual Employment -2011

8 2011 Forecasted vs. Actual Employment - 2,200 Region NHS Employment Data, 2011 versus P2G and Amendment Projections 2,000 1,800 Thousands 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Toronto All Other GTAH NHS (Actual) Places to Grow Amendment 2 Background Estimates 8

9 9 Jobs to Population Ratio in Peel

10 Decline in Manufacturing

11 Key Employment Trends 1. 16% of all jobs in Peel were people with no fixed place of work (11% ) and people who worked at home (6%). 2. Though manufacturing jobs were lost recently, many were replaced by other sectors. However, this still did not help achieve the employment forecasts from Places to Grow or Amendment 2 background estimates. 3. Industrial supply/absorption has not recovered to pre-recession levels. 4. There are more businesses in Peel between 2001 and 2011, but employees per business is declining from 8.3 employees per business to 6.6 employees per business. 11

12 Impacts of Not Achieving Employment Forecasts Unemployment rate on the rise in Peel Increased demand for regional services, including the following categories: Ontario Works Affordable housing Public Health Emergency Services Current Regional initiatives to support Peel s economy Infrastructure investment Employment Program and Service Business Review Youth Employment programs (Youth Employment Logistic Program) Employment working group Peel Poverty Reduction Strategy 12

13 $6.7 Billion in DC Forecast

14 Investing in Infrastructure for Growth Peel Assumes Risk Region of Peel Land Servicing Expenditure and Revenue OPA/ Secondary Plan Draft Approval Subdivision Building Permit Service Potable and Wastewater Stormwater Management Roads and Related Capital Item Treatment Transmission Distribution Local Facilities Roads Timing Significant Regional Debt-financed Expenditure Development Charge Collection Blue Region Yellow Area Municipality Green Area Municipality & Region 14

15 15 Post Recession New Normal?

16 Financial Impacts of Variances From Growth Forecasts 16

17 17 Future Growth Areas

18 Transportation Challenges Population Congestion Delay in Goods Movement Economic Vitality Congestion Pollution Health impact 18

19 Multi-modal Transportation Planning is Needed All-Day GO Train service Accessible Transit LRT-Hurontario Transit & TDM Measures BRT-Mi-Way BRT-Zum Carpooling Cycling & Walking 19

20 20 Improving Mobility

21 How to Grow Conformity to 2041 (Amendment 2: Places to Grow Plan) 21

22 How to Grow -Places to Grow Conformity to

23 Growth Management Challenges 1. Population growth rate on target with forecasts; but employment growth rate lags behind forecasts 2. Changing employment mix and thus changing employment land requirements 3. Difficulty prioritizing and planning for provision of infrastructure and services for new development 23

24 Potential Areas of Improvement 1. Focus future growth in intensification areas e.g. Hurontario LRT Project 2. Staging of investments with approvals 3. Support area municipalities in economic development 4. Align internal policies, procedures, assumptions regarding growth 5. Phase development in accordance with Official Plan 24

25 Growth Management Program Overview

Development Charges Update

5.2-1 Development Charges Update Growth Management Committee February 5th, 2015 5.2-2 Previous Growth Management Financial Presentations Studies undertaken with Watson & Associates to review growth financing