Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study

Transcription

1 Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study Presentation to the Arlington County Housing Commission May 1, 2014

2 Arlington County retained HR&A to update the 2012 Return on Investment Study by evaluating the net benefits of enhanced bus versus streetcar service. HR&A analyzed the projected impact of enhanced bus versus streetcar service with regards to: Real estate value appreciation Quantity and timing of new real estate development Form of new development and impact on place-making Employment growth Tax revenue growth HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 2

3 HR&A estimated impacts to properties within ¼ mile of the alignment along Columbia Pike, in Pentagon City, and in Baileys Crossroads, over 30-years. Study Area HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 3

4 The characteristics of the transit investments analyzed were defined by the AA/EA with direction from Arlington County and its transportation consultants. Because an agreement with VDOT stipulates that travel lanes cannot be removed from Columbia Pike, transit requiring a dedicated lane such as light rail transit (LRT) or bus rapid transit (BRT) is infeasible. The enhanced bus system considered by this analysis largely corresponds to the TSM 2 alternative defined by the AA/EA report. The streetcar system considered by this analysis largely corresponds to the Skyline Central Plaza design alternative defined by the AA/EA report. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 4

5 HR&A found that streetcar will accelerate delivery of adopted plans, enhance regional competitiveness, and yield greater economic benefits. Implementing a streetcar service along the Columbia Pike corridor is expected to generate $2.2-$3.0 billion in net economic benefits over 30 years 4,600 incremental new jobs 10 years after construction $315-$620 million in incremental local tax revenues over 30 years $40-$75 million in incremental revenues for the Columbia Pike TIF over 30 years over what would be generated by an enhanced bus. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 5

6 HR&A employed a rigorous methodology incorporating evidence from national precedents and conditions particular to the Columbia Pike corridor. Evaluate transportation characteristics Analyzed current Columbia Pike corridor real estate market conditions Analyzed actual real estate impacts of existing transit systems Assessed local developer and retailer perceptions Synthesized findings to build model of streetcar and enhanced bus impacts HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 6

7 Past experience strongly suggests streetcar and similar rail modes more consistently generate real estate benefits than enhanced bus service. Study ITDP: More Development for Your Transit Dollar New Real Estate Mantra: Location Near Public Transportation Capturing the Value of Transit Land Use Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit: Pittsburgh MLK East Busway Land Use Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit: Boston Silver Line Capitalization of BRT Network Expansions Effects Value Capture and TIF Options for Streetcar Construction Portland Streetcar Development Impacts TCRP Synthesis 86: Relationships between Streetcars and Built Environment The Impact of TOD on Housing Prices in San Diego Charlotte Streetcar Economic Development Study Land Value Impacts of Rail Transit Services in San Diego An Assessment of the DART LRT on Taxable Property Valuations Land Development at Selected HBLR Stations The Impact of HBLR on Residential Property Appreciation The Hiawatha Line: Impacts on Land Use and Housing Value Enhanced Bus/BRT Streetcar Light Rail Strong Price Premium Pace / Quantity Increase Strong Price Premium Pace / Quantity Increase Strong Price Premium Pace / Quantity Increase HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 7

8 In Portland and in New Jersey, streetcar (and streetcar-like) transit catalyzed dramatic neighborhood transformations through transit-oriented development. Portland Streetcar $4.5 Billion in new transit-oriented development catalyzed Adjacent development uses 90% of FAR (vs. 43% more than 3 blocks away) Property within 3 blocks achieved 40% premium over City after 11 yrs Hudson Bergen Light Rail $5.3 Billion in new transit-oriented residential development catalyzed Property within ¼ mile of station areas appreciated at 17-20% greater annually than other property over 18 yrs Boston Washington Street Silver Line $650 Million in new development, but primarily Downtown near subway 8% premium for adjacent properties over those 0.16 miles away, but no corridor value premium relative to City achieved within 9 yrs Kansas City MAX $5.2 Billion in new development, but primarily in Downtown and not oriented towards alignment City now implementing streetcar to encourage more TOD HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 8

9 Most developers and retailers believed a streetcar system would confer greater advantages to the Columbia Pike transit corridor than an enhanced bus system. Developer Findings Most believed a streetcar would confer greater advantages to real estate dynamics than an enhanced bus A smaller number believed a streetcar would not have a greater impact than an enhanced bus, and that it may be unlikely for either to be impactful Almost all believed connecting to the Crystal City Streetcar would amplify the impacts of streetcar Retailer Findings Most are more likely to consider expanding along the corridor with a streetcar versus an enhanced bus Most believed streetcar presents distinct advantages to branding, placemaking, and wayfinding HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 9

10 Streetcar would ultimately do more to differentiate the Columbia Pike transit corridor in the region through its superior mobility effects. Enhanced Bus Streetcar Quality of rider Improved over existing Smoother and quieter than experience buses, but overcapacity bus; not overcapacity Crystal City Streetcar Crystal City Streetcar (oneseat Connections (transfer), bus system, and Pentagon City Metro ride), bus system, and Pentagon City Metro Corridor travel time 23 minutes 22 minutes Vehicle capacity 94 riders 155 riders Initial ridership w/ Crystal City 11,800 15,900 Streetcar connection 2035 network volume to capacity ratio 1.19 (Indicates overcapacity) 0.91 (Indicates under capacity) HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 10

11 and also through its greater amenity effects. Place-making function Infrastructure permanence Branding / differentiation effects Impact on corridor congestion Enhanced Bus Vehicle, station infrastructure, and signage Stations Less unique positioning offers less brand value Lesser congestion reduction based on model ridership and capacity Streetcar Vehicle, tracks, wires, station infrastructure, signage Vehicles, stations, tracks, and wires Modern positioning offers cache and brand value Greater congestion reduction based on model ridership and capacity HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 11

12 Based on these findings, HR&A projected that streetcar will catalyze more significant property value premiums versus enhanced bus. Residential / Office Enhanced Bus Retail Residential / Office Streetcar Retail Initial Premium over Baseline Premium over Baseline After 10-Years 2% 1% 6% 4% 4% 2% 10% 7% HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 12

13 Substantial development potential remains along the Columbia Pike Corridor. Incremental Growth Required for Corridor Build Out Residential Units Office Square Feet Retail Square Feet Pentagon City 3,100 2,580,000 85,000 Columbia Pike 13, , ,000 Baileys Crossroads 3,500 1,745, ,000 Total 20,100 4,895, ,000 HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 13

14 HR&A projected that both enhanced bus and streetcar would support corridor development, but streetcar will do more and faster. Percent of Remaining Build-Out Achieved Within 30 Years Under Baseline Under Enhanced Bus Under Streetcar Pentagon City 100% 100% 100% Columbia Pike 60% 65% 80% Baileys Crossroads 25% 35% 50% Total 58% 64% 75% HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 14

15 HR&A estimated that streetcar would generate 2,800 more housing units, 70,000 more sq. ft. of retail, and 360,000 more sq. ft. of office than enhanced bus. Total New Real Estate Delivery Over 30 Years Under Baseline Under Enhanced Bus Under Streetcar Residential (units) 11,400 12,600 15,400 Retail (sq. ft.) 260, , ,000 Office (sq. ft.) 3,410,000 3,610,000 3,970,000 HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 15

16 The return-on-investment study utilized the best available cost estimates for both the enhanced bus and streetcar systems. One-Time Capital Costs (Millions of $2014) Annual Operations and Maintenance Costs (Millions of $2014) Baseline Enhanced Bus Streetcar $0 $67 $284 $15.7 $21.2 $24.5 Capital cost estimates for both the enhanced bus service and streetcar service were increased above the estimates in the AA/EA Report to reflect new information. The capital cost estimate of the enhanced bus service increased by $15M, and the capital cost estimate of the streetcar service increased by $31M. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 16

17 Over 30 years, HR&A projects that streetcar would generate $2.2-$3.0 billion in greater real estate impacts than enhanced bus service. Net Incremental Benefits (Return on Investment) Over 30 Years 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate $1.4 B $1.0 B $3.2 B $4.4 B Enhanced Bus Streetcar Economic benefits result from the appreciation of existing properties and greater extent and faster pace of new development. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 17

18 Within ten years of project construction, streetcar service would catalyze real estate development enabling significantly more local jobs than enhance bus. Incremental New Jobs Supported by 2027 Total Jobs 2,000 6,600 Enhanced Bus Streetcar Development on the Columbia Pike induced by new transit creates accessible employment opportunities for County residents. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 18

19 Streetcar would also generate up to $620 million in additional tax revenues to Arlington and Fairfax Counties relative to enhanced bus. Incremental Local Tax Revenues Over 30 Years 3% Discount Rate $275 M $895 M 7% Discount Rate $140 M $455 M Enhanced Bus Streetcar Fiscal benefits owe to real estate, personal property, business license (BPOL), sales, and meals tax revenues to Arlington and Fairfax Counties. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 19

20 With the streetcar, the Columbia Pike TIF could generate an additional $ million to the Transit-Oriented Affordable Housing (TOAH) fund over 30 years. Incremental TIF Revenues Over 30 Years 3% Discount Rate $30 M $105 M 7% Discount Rate $15 M $55 M Enhanced Bus Streetcar The TIF dedicates one quarter of the incremental real property tax revenue derived from Columbia Pike to fund the TOAH. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 20

21 A streetcar service would ultimately be more effective in meeting development goals for Columbia Pike, Pentagon City, and Baileys Crossroads. Arlington County s Columbia Pike Initiative and Columbia Pike Neighborhoods Area Plan envision a vibrant and livable corridor with affordable housing, increased density, and enhanced public facilities. Fairfax County s Comprehensive Plan envisions Baileys Crossroads as a denser area featuring mixed uses and new amenities These plans expect the Columbia Pike corridor to accommodate a larger share of future regional growth. Attractive infrastructure improvements like streetcar make the corridor more competitive in capturing demand in the Capital region market. HR&A Advisors, Inc. INTERNAL DRAFT Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study 21

22 Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study Presentation to the Arlington County Housing Commission May 1, 2014