Projections of future retirement income security A project of the EBRI Education and Research Fund and the Milbank Memorial Fund

Transcription

1 Prjectins f future retirement incme security A prject f the EBRI Educatin and Research Fund and the Milbank Memrial Fund December 2003 Primary Analysts: Jack L. VanDerhei, Temple University, EBRI Fellw Craig Cpeland, Senir Research Assciate, Emplyee Benefit Research Institute 1

2 Mdeling innvatins in the EBRI/ERF Retirement Security Prjectin Mdel Pensin plan parameters cded frm a time series f several hundred plans 401(k) asset allcatin and cntributin behavir based n individual administrative recrds mre than 10 millin emplyees in 30,000 plans Husing equity mdeled under three scenaris Stchastic mdeling f nursing facility care and hme based health care 2

3 Emplyee cntributin rates by age: Cmpany A max match (5%) plan max (9 percent) 402(g) s 30s 40s 50s 60s Surce: Yakbski and VanDerhei, Cntributin Rates and Plan Features: An Analysis f Large 401(k) Plan Data, EBRI Issue Brief 3 (June 1996)

4 Percentage f Cmpensatin Predicted Emplyee Cntributins fr Selected Persns and Plans Age=55,Wage=45 Age=40,Wage=25 Age=35,Wage=20 Age=22,Wage=15 100%, up t 5% 75% up t 6% 50% up t 6% 75% up t 2%, 50% fr 3%-5% 0% Surce: VanDerhei and Cpeland, "A behaviral mdel fr predicting emplyee cntributins t 401(k) plans." Nrth American Actuarial Jurnal (First Quarter, 2001) 4

5 Retirement incme Limited t incme prduced by Public and private retirement plans (including IRAs) Scial Security Husing equity Assumes retirement incme cmmences at Scial Security nrmal retirement age Purpsely cnservative with respect t reprted deficits 5

6 Retirement adequacy Year-by-year cmparisn f Deterministic and simulated retirement expenditures vs. retirement incme (fr mst defined benefit plans and Scial Security) and accunt balances that may be spent as desired (defined cntributin and cash balance plans and IRAs) 6

7 Retirement Expense Assumptins decmpsed ttal expenditures fr retirees int thse that are deterministic fd, apparel and services, transprtatin, entertainment, reading and educatin, husing, and basic health expenditures thse that are stchastic hme health care and nursing hme care perfrmed annual simulatins n U.S. families with a retiree t determine if each retiree wuld: require hme health care, enter a nursing hme, die, r cntinue t survive withut incurring any f these stchastic health csts. 7

8 Mdel utput: simulated expenditure analysis mdeled the health expenditures cvered by Medicaid based n the federal Supplemental Security Incme prgram resurce and incme standards cmputed the annual differential, if any, between the ttal expenses (less thse cvered by Medicaid) and the retirement incme. If ttal net expenses are simulated t exceed the ttal retirement incme fr a year the husehlds are assumed t spend dwn their individual accunt balances until the pint at which they are exhausted. The present value f the annual deficits are then accumulated fr each bservatin 8

9 Husing equity assumptins Three different scenaris were mdeled Husing equity never liquidated Husing equity annuitized at retirement Husing equity is nt liquidated until needed and then the residual value is nt annuitized 9

10 Individual savings shrtfalls fr meeting basic expenses Definitin f basic expenses basic living expenses and any expense assciated with an episde f care in a nursing hme r frm a hme health care prvider Next tw slides shws results by: Birth chrt Incme quartile Functin f all future years f wrk, nt just current year r year prir t retirement We assume individuals want a better than 50/50 chance f having sufficient retirement incme t cver basic expenses Mdel bth a 75 and 90 percent cnfidence level 10

11 Median Percentage f Cmpensatin That Must Be Saved Each Year Until Retirement Fr a 75% Cnfidence Level Fr Funds T Cver Basic Expenses* When Cmbined With Simulated Retirement Wealth by Birth Chrt and Incme Quartile (Limited t 25%; assumes current Scial Security and husing equity is never liquidated) 25% Incme quartile 20% 15% 10% 5% % * Basic expenses = basic living expenses and any expense assciated with an episde f care in a nursing hme r frm a hme health care prvider Surce: EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Prjectin Mdel. 11

12 Median Percentage f Cmpensatin That Must Be Saved Each Year Until Retirement Fr a 90% Cnfidence Level Fr Funds T Cver Basic Expenses* When Cmbined With Simulated Retirement Wealth by Birth Chrt and Incme Quartile (Limited t 25%; assumes current Scial Security and husing equity is never liquidated) 25% Incme quartile 20% 15% 10% 5% % * Basic expenses = basic living expenses and any expense assciated with an episde f care in a nursing hme r frm a hme health care prvider Surce: EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Prjectin Mdel. 12

13 Wuld an additinal 5% f cmpensatin be sufficient fr mst preretirees t have sufficient funds t cver basic expenses*? Previus tw slides nly shwed the medians fr the varius grups Als shwed results as a functin f just age and incme See figures 2 and 3 in Issue Brief fr results that include a breakut by gender/family status at retirement Next slide shws the percentage f simulated life-paths in each chrt that wuld have sufficient retirement incme if they saved 5 percent f cmpensatin each year until retirement This is in additin t any retirement incme/wealth simulated in the mde * Basic expenses = basic living expenses and any expense assciated with an episde f care in a nursing hme r frm a hme health care prvider 13

14 Percentage f Retirees Estimated t Have Sufficient Retirement Incme/Wealth t cver Basic Expenses* by Saving 5% f Cmpensatin Each Year Frm 2003 Until Retirement (Figure 20, page 24) (assumes current Scial Security benefits) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% family single female single male * Basic expenses = basic living expenses and any expense assciated with an episde f care in a nursing hme r frm a hme health care prvider Surce: EBRI-ERF Retirement Security Prjectin Mdel. 14

15 Aggregate Results 15

16 Billins Simulated nminal annual deficits fr ppulatin age 65 and ver after Medicaid reimbursements by husing equity scenari (Assuming status qu fr Scial Security benefits and that current retirees are similar t the ldest chrt f current wrkers) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Annuitized at retirement Never liquidated Liquidated when needed 16