PRESS RELEASE Brussels, 13 th October 2017

Transcription

1 PRESS RELEASE Brussels, 13 th Octber 2017 Harmnised index f cnsumer prices - September 2017 Belgium's inflatin rate based n the Eurpean harmnised index f cnsumer prices amunted t 2.0 % in September, just like in August. Cre inflatin (inflatin withut energy and unprcessed fd) std at 1.7 % in September, up frm 1.6 % in August. The sub-indices with the largest upward effect n inflatin were mtr fuels, dmestic heating il and tbacc. Mst f the dwnward pressure n inflatin in September came frm clthing, vegetables and fruit. The harmnised index f cnsumer prices f September fr the EU Member States will be published by Eurstat n 17 th Octber. 5% Inflatin 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 01/ / / / /2011 Inflatin (%) 09/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2017 HICP HICP-CT The inflatin rate based n the Eurpean harmnised index f cnsumer prices (HICP) i std at 2.0 % in September, just like in August. Inflatin based n the harmnised index f cnsumer prices at cnstant tax rates (HICP-CT) ii was running at 1.8 % in September and remained unchanged frm August. The difference in inflatin between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due t the changes in excise duties n mtr fuels and tbacc. These increases are nt taken int accunt in the HICP-CT.

2 2/7 Inflatin and effect n inflatin fr the 12 main grups Based n the breakdwn int 12 main grups, the highest inflatin rate in September was measured fr "alchlic beverages and tbacc" (4.3 %). The lwest inflatin rate was measured fr "educatin" (0.0 %). The main grups with the largest upward effect n inflatin in September were "husing, water, energy" and "transprt" with an effect n inflatin f 0.2 percentage pint each. The largest dwnward effect was measured fr "fd and nn-alchlic beverages" (-0.2 percentage pint). Prduct grup Inflatin iii and effect iv n inflatin fr the verall HICP and 12 main grups Weight ( ) Inflatin n annual basis (%) HICP HICP-CT Effect n inflatin (percentage pint) Jul/17 Aug/17 Sep/17 Sep/17 Jul/17 Aug/17 Sep/17 0 Ttal expenditure Fd and nn-alchlic beverages Alchlic beverages and tbacc Clthing and ftwear Husing, water and energy Interir decratin and husehld appliances Health Transprt Cmmunicatin Recreatin and culture Educatin Htels, cafés and restaurants Varius gds and services Inflatin accrding t specific aggregates The verall HICP can be brken dwn int five specific aggregates which tgether frm the ttal expenditure. The inflatin rate fr fuels and energy surces has gne dwn. It was running at 6.4 % in September, as against 7.1 % in August and 3.8 % in July. Prices increased n average by 1.1 % cmpared t the previus mnth. The average inflatin rate f this aggregate fr the last twelve mnths is 9.7 %. Inflatin fr prcessed fd prducts std at 2.8 % in September, up frm 2.5 % in August. Prices decreased n average by 0.2 % cmpared t August. Inflatin fr unprcessed fd (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amunted t -0.5 % in September cmpared t -0.2 % in August. Prices decreased n average by 0.9 % cmpared t August. The average inflatin rate f this aggregate fr the last twelve mnths is 0.6 %.

3 Inflatin fr nn-energy industrial gds was running at 0.8 % in September, unchanged frm the previus mnth. Prices decreased n average by 0.1 % cmpared t August. Inflatin fr services was running at 1.9 % in September, unchanged frm the previus mnth. Prices decreased n average by 1.0 % cmpared t August. 3/7 Cre inflatin (inflatin withut energy and unprcessed fd) was running at 1.7 % in September, registering an increase cmpared t the inflatin rate f 1.6 % measured in August. Prices decreased by 0.6 % n average cmpared t the previus mnth. Inflatin accrding t specific aggregates Inflatin n annual basis (%) 12-mnth average (%) Mnthly change Specific aggregates Weight ( ) Jul/17 Aug/17 Sep/17 Sep/17 Sep/17 Ttal expenditure Fuels and energy surces Prcessed fd prducts Unprcessed fd Nn-energy industrial gds Services HICP withut energy and unprcessed fd (cre inflatin)

4 4/7 Effect f sub-indices n inflatin The largest upward effect n inflatin was caused by mtr fuels (0.20 percentage pint). Dmestic heating il prvided an effect f 0.16 percentage pint. Tbacc prvided an effect f 0.12 percentage pint. Sub-indices with the largest upward effect n inflatin Sub-index Weight ( ) Effect n inflatin (percentage pint) 2017 Sep/ Mtr fuels Dmestic heating il Tbacc The largest dwnward effect n inflatin came frm fruit (-0.12 percentage pint). Vegetables prvided an effect f percentage pint. Clthing prvided a cntributin f percentage pint. Sub-indices with the largest dwnward effect n inflatin Sub-index Weight ( ) Effect n inflatin (percentage pint) 2017 Sep/ Fruit Vegetables Clthing

5 5/7 Cmparisn with neighburing cuntries Since the HICP f the neighburing cuntries will nt be published until later, cmparisns can nly be made fr the mnth f August. In August, inflatin in Belgium was running at 2.0 %, up frm the 1.8 % registered in July. The Netherlands experienced an inflatin rate f 1.5 % in August, unchanged frm July. Inflatin in France in August amunted t 1.0 %, up frm 0.8 % in July. Inflatin in Germany in August amunted t 1.8 %, als registering an increase cmpared t 1.5 % in July. 4,0 HICP 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 01/ / /2012 Inflatin (%) 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /2017 Belgium Germany France Netherlands Belgium's inflatin rate based n the HICP-CT std at 1.8 % in August, representing an increase frm a rate f 1.6 % in July. This inflatin rate in Germany als went up frm 1.5 % in July t 1.8 % in August. This inflatin rate in France went up frm 0.6 % in July t 0.8 % in August. This inflatin rate in the Netherlands was running at 1.5 %, unchanged frm the previus mnth. 4,0 HICP-CT 3,0 Inflatin (%) 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2017 Belgium Germany France Netherlands

6 6/7 Additinal infrmatin Fr mre infrmatin, please cntact Wendy Schelfaut: +32 (0)2/ Surce Additinal figures Tables with detailed data can be fund n:

7 7/7 Technical explanatin i In additin t the natinal cnsumer price index (CPI), als calculates a Eurpean harmnised cnsumer price index (Harmnised Index f Cnsumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used t cmpare inflatin rates in the EU Member States. T this end, the applied expenditure apprach and methds have been crdinated as much as pssible and laid dwn in Eurpean regulatins. The results f the CPI and HICP are nt the same. This is mainly due t a different weighting and cmpsitin f the basket f gds and services n which these indices are based. The HICP is als used by the Eurpean Central Bank in its mnetary plicy. Additinally, the HICP is used t determine t what extent a Member State meets the inflatin criteria set in the Treaty n Eurpean Unin. Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are: The weighting f the basket f gds and services in the HICP is mainly based n the natinal accunts. At lwer detailed levels the Husehld Budget Survey is used. The CPI mstly uses the Husehld Budget Survey at all levels. The reference ppulatin f the HICP cnsists f private husehlds (including turists in Belgium) and institutinal husehlds (e.g. retirement hmes and nursing hmes). In the CPI, this ppulatin currently cnsists f private husehlds with a reference persn under a maximum age. The HICP uses the cncept f dmestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference ppulatin. The CPI uses the cncept f natinal expenditure: expenditure by the reference ppulatin irrespective f the lcatin. Seasnal adjustment is nt applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI t travels abrad and stays in hliday villages. Sales perids in the CPI are systematically spread ver 6 mnths, but are included in the same mnth in the HICP. Current prices fr dmestic heating il are used in the HICP calculatin. A weighted 12-mnth average is applied in the CPI calculatin. ii The HICP-CT is calculated in the same manner as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based n cnstant tax rates. This index therefre reflects the theretically ptential effect f changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT r excise duties) n measured inflatin. Hwever, this is a theretical effect, since it presuppses that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by cnsumers. iii Inflatin n annual basis measures the price changes between the current mnth and the same mnth f the year befre. A 12-mnth average cmpares the average HICP f the last 12 mnths with the average f the previus 12 mnths. A mnthly change cmpares the price levels f the last tw mnths. iv An effect n inflatin shws the changes n the inflatin rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect nt nly takes the weight f the sub-index int accunt, but it als takes int accunt whether the sub-index inflatin is higher r lwer than that f the ttal expenditure (verall HICP).