PRESS RELEASE Brussels, 13 th October 2016

Transcription

1 PRESS RELEASE Brussels, 13 th Octber 2016 Harmnised index f cnsumer prices - September 2016 Belgium's inflatin rate based n the Eurpean harmnised index f cnsumer prices was running at 1.8% in September, dwn frm 2.0% in August. Cre inflatin (inflatin withut energy and unprcessed fd) slwed t 2.0% in September frm 2.2% in August. The sub-indices with the largest upward effect n inflatin were electricity, educatin, tbacc, restaurants, cafés and similar services, telecmmunicatin and the purchase f passenger vehicles. Mst f the dwnward pressure n inflatin in September came frm gas, dmestic heating il and mtr fuels. The harmnised index f cnsumer prices f September fr the EU Member States will be published by Eurstat n 17 Octber. 5% Inflatin 4% Inflatin rate (%) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 HICP HICP-CT Inflatin based n the harmnised index f cnsumer prices (HICP) i std at 1.8% in September, as against 2.0% in August. Inflatin based n the harmnised index f cnsumer prices at cnstant tax rates (HICP-CT) ii was running at 1.1% in September, up frm 0.9% in August. The difference in inflatin between the HICP and the HICP-CT is largely due t the intrductin f an increased tax n energy in the Flemish Regin and t changes in excise duties n mtr fuels. These increases are nt taken int accunt in the HICP-CT. In additin t the mnthly natinal cnsumer price index (CPI), als calculates a Eurpean harmnised cnsumer price index (Harmnised Index f Cnsumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used t cmpare inflatin rates in the EU Member States. T this end, the applied expenditure apprach and methds have been crdinated as well as pssible and laid dwn in Eurpean regulatins. The results f the CPI and HICP are nt the same. This is mainly due t a different weighting and cmpsitin f the basket f gds and services n which these indices are based. Find ut mre n the HICP n page 7 i.

2 Inflatin and effect n inflatin fr the 12 main grups Based n the breakdwn int 12 main grups, the highest inflatin rates in September were measured fr "Educatin" (28.8%) and "Alchlic beverages and tbacc" (6.1%). The high inflatin rate fr "Alchlic beverages and tbacc" is partly due t increases in excise duties. Withut these increases, the inflatin rate fr this grup wuld have reached 2.5%. The lwest inflatin rate was measured fr "Interir decratin and husehld appliances" (0.4%). The main grup with the largest upward effect n inflatin in September was "Alchlic beverages and tbacc" with an effect n inflatin f 0.2 percentage pint. The largest dwnward effect was measured fr "Husing, water and energy" (-0.2 percentage pint). Prduct grup Inflatin iii and effect iv n inflatin fr the verall HICP and 12 main grups Weight ( ) Inflatin n annual basis (%) Effect n inflatin HICP HICP-CT (percentage pint) Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 Sep/16 Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 0 Ttal expenditure Fd and nn-alchlic beverages Alchlic beverages and tbacc Clthing and ftwear Husing, water and energy Interir decratin and husehld 5 appliances Health Transprt Cmmunicatin Recreatin and culture Educatin Htels, cafés and restaurants Varius gds and services Inflatin accrding t specific aggregates The verall HICP can be brken dwn int five specific aggregates which tgether frm the ttal expenditure. The inflatin rate fr fuels and energy surces is again psitive. It was running at 0.4% in September, as against -0.1% in August and 0.6% in July. Prices increased n average by 1.8% cmpared t the previus mnth. The average inflatin rate f this aggregate fr the last twelve mnths is -3.1%. Inflatin fr prcessed fd prducts std at 3.2% in September, as against 3.5% in August. Prices decreased n average by 0.5% cmpared t August.

3 Inflatin fr unprcessed fd (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) slwed t 2.0% in September frm 3.1% in August. A price decrease f 0.6% was registered cmpared t the mnth befre. The average inflatin rate f this aggregate fr the last twelve mnths is 3.1%. Inflatin fr nn-energy industrial gds was running at 0.9% in September, dwn frm 1.1% in August. Prices decreased n average by 0.1% cmpared t August. Inflatin fr services decreased t 2.3% in September frm 2.4% in August. Prices declined n average by 1.0% cmpared t August. Cre inflatin (inflatin withut energy and unprcessed fd) std at 2.0% in September, dwn frm 2.2% in August. Prices were 0.7% lwer than the mnth befre. Inflatin accrding t specific aggregates Specific aggregates Weight ( ) Inflatin n annual basis (%) 12-mnth average (%) Mnthly change Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 Sep/16 Sep/16 Ttal expenditure Fuels and energy surces Prcessed fd prducts Unprcessed fd Nn-energy industrial gds Services HICP withut energy and unprcessed fd (cre inflatin) Effect f sub-indices n inflatin The largest dwnward effect n inflatin came frm gas (-0.29 percentage pint). Dmestic heating il accunted fr percentage pint. Mtr fuels had a dwnward cntributin f percentage pint. Sub-indices with the largest dwnward effect n inflatin Effect n inflatin Weight ( ) Sub-index (percentage pint) 2016 Sep/ Gas Dmestic heating il Mtr fuels

4 The largest upward effect was caused by electricity (0.37 percentage pint). The impact f educatin n inflatin was 0.15 percentage pint. Tbacc and restaurants, cafés and similar services accunted fr 0.10 percentage pint each. Telecmmunicatin prvided a cntributin f 0.09 percentage pint. Finally, the purchase f passenger vehicles had an effect n inflatin f 0.08 percentage pint. Sub-indices with the largest upward effect n inflatin Sub-index Weight ( ) Effect n inflatin (percentage pint) 2016 Sep/ Electricity Educatin Tbacc Restaurants, cafés and similar services Telecmmunicatin Purchase f passenger vehicles

5 Cmparisn with neighburing cuntries Since the HICP f the neighburing cuntries will nt be published until later, cmparisns can nly be made fr the mnth f August. In August, Belgium's inflatin rate std at 2.0%, unchanged frm July. The Netherlands experienced an inflatin rate f 0.1% in August. This represents an increase cmpared t an inflatin rate f -0.6% in July. Inflatin in France was running at 0.4% in August, unchanged frm July. In Germany inflatin decreased t 0.3% in August frm 0.4% in July. 4,0 HICP Inflatin (%) 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 Belgium Germany France Netherlands Belgium als registered the highest inflatin rate based n the HICP-CT cmpared t the neighburing cuntries. Belgium's inflatin rate based n the HICP-CT std at 0.9% in August, representing a slight decline frm a rate f 1.0% in July. This inflatin rate in Germany slwed t 0.3% in August frm 0.4% in July. In France, this inflatin rate remained unchanged frm July at 0.2%. In the Netherlands, it was running at 0.0%, up frm -0.7% in July. 4,0 HICP-CT 3,0 Inflatin (%) 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 Belgium Germany France Netherlands

6 Additinal infrmatin Fr mre infrmatin, please cntact Stephan Mens: +32 (0)2/ Surce Additinal figures Tables with detailed data can be fund n:

7 7/7 Technical explanatin i In additin t the natinal cnsumer price index (CPI), als calculates a Eurpean harmnised cnsumer price index (Harmnised Index f Cnsumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used t cmpare inflatin rates in the EU Member States. T this end, the applied expenditure apprach and methds have been crdinated as well as pssible and laid dwn in Eurpean regulatins. The results f the CPI and HICP are nt the same. This is mainly due t a different weighting and cmpsitin f the basket f gds and services n which these indices are based. The HICP is als used by the Eurpean Central Bank in its mnetary plicy. Additinally, the HICP is used t determine t what extent a Member State meets the inflatin criteria set in the Treaty n Eurpean Unin. Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are: The weighting f the basket f gds and services in the HICP is mainly based n the natinal accunts. At lwer detailed levels the Husehld Budget Survey is used. The CPI mstly uses the Husehld Budget Survey at all levels. The reference ppulatin f the HICP cnsists f private husehlds and institutinal husehlds (e.g. retirement hmes and nursing hmes). In the CPI, this ppulatin currently cnsists f private husehlds with a reference persn under a maximum age. The HICP uses the cncept f dmestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference ppulatin. The CPI uses the cncept f natinal expenditure: expenditure by the reference ppulatin irrespective f the lcatin. Seasnal adjustment is nt applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI t travels abrad and stays in hliday villages. Sales perids in the CPI are systematically spread ver 6 mnths, but are included in the same mnth in the HICP. Current prices fr dmestic heating il are used in the HICP calculatin. A weighted 12-mnth average is applied in the CPI calculatin. ii The HICP-CT is calculated in the same manner as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based n cnstant tax rates. This index therefre reflects the theretically ptential effect f changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT r excise duties) n measured inflatin. Hwever, this is a theretical effect, since it presuppses that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by cnsumers. iii Inflatin n annual basis measures the price changes between the current mnth and the same mnth f the year befre. A 12-mnth average cmpares the average HICP f the last 12 mnths with the average f the previus 12 mnths. A mnthly change cmpares the price levels f the last tw mnths. iv An effect n inflatin shws the changes n the inflatin rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect nt nly takes the weight f the sub-index int accunt, but it als takes int accunt if the sub-index inflatin is higher r lwer than that f the ttal expenditure (verall HICP).