DFW Market Overview. Jay Denton Axiometrics ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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1 DFW Market Overview Jay Denton
2 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Current Performance - National 6.0% Annual Rent Growth (Left) TTM Occupancy Rate (Right) 95.2% 5.0% 95.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Rent growth steady at close to 2% 94.8% 94.6% 94.4% 94.2% 1.0% Occupancy moderating as new construction delivers 94.0% 0.0% 93.8% Source: Axiometrics 2
3 Annual Rent Growth April 2017 Source: Axiometrics 3
4 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Performance in Texas Markets Annual Effective Rent Growth Occupancy Rate 8% 97% 6% Ft. Worth 96% Ft. Worth 4% 2% Dallas 95% 94% Dallas Austin 93% 0% Austin 92% -2% Houston 91% Houston -4% 90% -6% 89% Source: Axiometrics 4
5 Effective Rent Growth by Submarket Dallas-Fort Worth 2015 Apr Source: Axiometrics 5
6 Effective Rent Growth & New Supply April 2017 Source: Axiometrics 6
7 Effective Rent Growth & New Supply Dallas-Fort Worth Submarkets Top 10 Submarkets by Effective Rent Growth Market Submarket Apr-17 Effective Rent Growth Fort Worth Central Arlington 9.5% Dallas Far Northeast 9.1% Dallas South White Rock/I % Fort Worth I % Dallas Garland 5.7% Dallas Southwest Dallas 5.6% Fort Worth Hurst/Bedford/Euless 5.5% Dallas North White Rock 5.3% Fort Worth North Arlington 5.0% Fort Worth Southeast 4.8% Top 10 Submarkets by Identified Supply Market Submarket 2017 Identified Supply Dallas Plano/Allen/McKinney 4,386 Dallas Oak Lawn 3,022 Dallas North White Rock 2,708 Dallas Richardson 2,248 Dallas Denton County/Other 2,144 Dallas East Dallas 1,531 Dallas Far North 1,518 Dallas North Irving 1,396 Fort Worth Northwest 1,273 Dallas Southwest Dallas 1,212 Source: Axiometrics 7
8 Mar-17 Permitting Levels Dallas-Fort Worth 70,000 60,000 Total 50,000 40,000 30,000 Single-Family 20,000 Multifamily 10,000 0 Sources: Axiometrics, Census 8
9 2Q96 4Q96 2Q97 4Q97 2Q98 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18 6% Dallas Job Growth 5% Forecast 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Sources: Axiometrics, BLS 9
10 3Q96 1Q97 3Q97 1Q98 3Q98 1Q99 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 Dallas Job Growth to Total Permits Ratio Note: permits are lagged by one year Sources: Axiometrics, BLS, Census 10
11 3Q96 1Q97 3Q97 1Q98 3Q98 1Q99 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 Dallas Job Growth to Total Permits Ratio 92% correlation between ratio and rent growth Job Growth to Total Permits Ratio Effective Rental Growth Rate Note: permits are lagged by one year 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Sources: Axiometrics, BLS, Census 11
12 Occupancy and Rent Level Dallas-Fort Worth Submarkets Higher Rent, Lower Occ Rate Dallas Average Ft. Worth Average Sources: Axiometrics 12
13 Occupancy and Rent Level Dallas-Fort Worth Submarkets Higher Rent, Lower Occ Rate Dallas Average Ft. Worth Average Sources: Axiometrics 13
14 Occupancy and Rent Level Dallas-Fort Worth Submarkets Higher Rent, Lower Occ Rate Oak Lawn Grapevine Dallas Average Ft. Worth Average South White Rock Grand Prairie Southeast Dallas Sources: Axiometrics 14
15 Rent Growth and Occupancy Forecast for Top 50 Markets 2017F-2019F Average Fort Worth Dallas Source: Axiometrics 15
16 Disclaimer Notice All advice, consultations, queries, data and reports (collectively referred to as the Reports ) provided are prepared from data believed reliable without verification or investigation, and are not guaranteed or warranted by Axiometrics Inc., its directors, officers, employees and contractors, and do not purport to be complete or error-free or useful for any purpose. The facts and opinions contained herein are not guaranteed or warranted to be complete or error-free or useful for any purpose. The opinions expressed in such information are subject to change without notice. Axiometrics and RealPage, its directors, officers, employees and contractors, assume no liability for or from its advice, consultations, queries and reports provided herein. Please use such information at your own risk. 16
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