2016 TRB Webinar. Using Asset Valuation as a Basis for Bridge Maintenance and Replacement Decisions

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "2016 TRB Webinar. Using Asset Valuation as a Basis for Bridge Maintenance and Replacement Decisions"

Eleanore Clark
6 years ago
Views:

1 2016 TRB Webinar Using Asset Valuation as a Basis for Bridge Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Adam Matteo Jeff Milton Todd Springer Virginia Department of Transportation Structure and Bridge Division April 11, 2016

2 Presentation Outline 1. Calculate the current value and condition of bridges in an inventory Modified Health Index (MHI) Element Condition Data 2. Using current valuation (equity) as the basis for engineering decisions on maintenance/replacement Action-effectiveness models and associated cost estimates to develop comparative cost/benefit ratios Long-term predictions of asset values for various alternatives to perform life cycle analysis using estimates 3. Using Modified Health Index and other indices to select bridge projects with a Multi-Objective Prioritization Formula 2

3 Modified Health Index (MHI) Using detailed information about bridge conditions from element level data, cost data to develop Publicly-owned assets have value but no revenue in most cases How do we measure current value (depreciation) Thinking like a business WWUPSD? (What Would UPS Do?) 3

4 Current Valuation (Equity) Multiple Uses Equity can be a powerful tool in guiding bridge management Can determine the most cost-effective actions on a given structure Helpful in selecting which structures should be worked on Can be used to measure effectiveness of various work programs Helpful as a measurement of progress 4

5 Measuring Equity Common Practice (IRS): Time Based Depreciation $1,200,000 $1,000,000 Typical Straight-Line Depreciation Curve Initial Value ($1M) Residual (Salvage) Value Equity $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ Age of Asset (Years) 5

6 Modified Health Index: Basic Equation If a structure has the following characteristics: 0 to 100 scale 0 means end of service life 100 for a new (ideal) structure Example: If a structure has deteriorated 32%, the MHI = 68 (100-32) MHI = Σ (MHI Element *Replacement Value Element ) Σ Replacement Value Elements If Σ Superstructure Value = 0, then deck = 0 If Σ Substructure Value = 0, then deck and superstructure = 0 6

7 Element Data Collected During Inspections AASHTO National Bridge Elements (NBE) 7

8 Additional VDOT Elements Component Number Title Deck 801 Sidewalk 802 Deck Drains Superstructure 811 Beam/Girder End 812 Reinforced Concrete Frame Substructure 821 Steel Abutment 822 Steel Wingwall 823 Reinf.\ Concrete Abutment 824 Reinf.\ Concrete Wingwall 825 Timber Abutment 826 Timber Wingwall 827 Masonry Abutment 828 Masonry Wingwall 829 MSE Abutments 830 MSE Wingwall Culverts 831 Concrete Culvert Endwall/Headwall 832 Concrete Cuvlert Wingwall 833 Roadway Over Culvert Joints 841 Asphalt Plug Joint 842 Elastomeric Concrete Plug Joint 843 Link Slab 844 Slab Extension 845 Joint Effectiveness Slopes & Channels 851 Unprotected Slope 852 Protected Slope - Paved 853 Protected Slope - Riprap 854 Channel Protective 881 Wearing Surface - Unprotected Asphalt Wearing Surface 882 Wearing Surface - Protected Asphalt Wearing Surface 883 Wearing Surface - Thin Overlay 884 Wearing surface - Rigid Overlay 885 Wearing Surface - Other 8

9 Using Deterioration Models to Determine Current Value: Step 1: Define End of Life of Elements in Terms of Condition States 100% Predicted % of Element in Each Condition State 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Steel Girders Element End of Element Life (Zero Value): 20% in Worst Condition State (CS4) Average life of Element is ~44 Years Years

10 Using Deterioration Models to Determine Current Value: Step 2: Determine Current Value in Terms of Current Condition Predicted % of Element in Each Condition State 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Steel Girders Element Element Currently has 6% in Worst Condition State (CS4) Element has deteriorated ~ 27 Years Average life of Element is ~44 Years Years

11 Using Deterioration Models to Determine Current Value: Step 3: Determine MHI for Each Element 100% Predicted % of Element in Each Condition State 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Steel Girders Element Element has deteriorated ~ 27 Years MHI Element = 100*(44-27)/44 = 39 Average life of Element is ~44 Years Years

12 Determination of Current Valuation (Equity): Example Equation Equity = MHI * Structure Replacement Cost Example Structure: MHI = 39 Replacement Value = $2,000,000 Equity =.39 * 2,000,000 = $780,000 12

13 Modified Health Index and Current Valuation: Example Calculation #1 Element Name MHI Element Element Replacement Value MHI * Replacement Value Columns 63 x $25,000 = $15,750 Pier Caps 54 x $30,000 = $16,200 Abutments 75 x $60,000 = $45,000 Girders 83 x $160,000 = $132,800 Diahragms 86 x $30,000 = $25,800 Deck 92 x $180,000 = $165,600 Joints 65 x $30,000 = $19,500 Parapet 92 x $40,000 = $36,800 Sum 82 $555,000 $457,450 MHI = ($457,450 $555,000)100 = 82 13

14 Modified Health Index and Current Valuation: Example Calculation #2 Element Name MHI Element Element Replacement Value MHI * Replacement Value Columns 63 x $25,000 = $15,750 Pier Caps 54 x $30,000 = $16,200 Abutments 75 x $60,000 = $45,000 Girders 83 x $160,000 = $132,800 Diahragms 86 x $30,000 = $25,800 Deck 0 x $180,000 = $0 Joints 0 x $30,000 = $0 Parapet 0 x $40,000 = $0 Sum 42 $555,000 $235,550 Note: Replacement Cost of Bridge < ΣElement Replacement Values MHI = ($235,550 $555,000)100 = 42 14

15 Using Current Valuation to Evaluate Performance of an Entire Inventory of Structures District Available Funds (Millions) Aggregate Valuation of Structures (Billions) Average MHI Maintenance Construction Total Start of year End of year Difference (Millions) Start of year End of year Difference A $19.1 $12.5 $31.6 $5.23 $5.21 -$ B $23.1 $15.5 $38.6 $7.22 $7.21 -$ C $20.4 $14.0 $34.4 $6.05 $5.76 -$ Total $62.6 $42.0 $104.6 $18.5 $ $ MHI is used as both a condition index and a measurement of current value 15

16 Using current valuation (equity) as the basis for engineering decisions on maintenance/replacement 16

17 Measuring Equity Benefits for Various Alternatives Immediate Benefit = Increase in Valuation due to Interventions Example: For a structure with MHI = 32 and a replacement cost of $2,600, Repair Option 1 will increase MHI to 92 for a cost of $600,000 Benefit = (92 32)*$2,600,000 = $1,560,000 Benefit/Cost = $1,560,000/ $600,000 = Repair Option 2 will increase MHI to 74 for a cost of $350,000 Benefit = (74 32)*$2,600,000 = $1,092,000 Benefit/Cost = $1,092,000/ $350,000 = Replace Option will increase MHI to 1.00 for a cost of $2,600,000 Benefit = (100 32)*$2,600,000 = $1,768,000 Benefit/Cost = $1,768,000/$2,600,000 =.68 17

18 The Benefits of Using Equity as the Basis for Engineering Decisions $1,200,000 Steel Culvert Depreciation $1,000,000 Current Value of Asset (Equity) $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- Initial Value ($1M) Decision Residual (Salvage) Value Option 1 Replace with Steel Culvert $1M $(200,000) Age - Years

19 The Benefits of Using Equity as the Basis for Engineering Decisions $1,200,000 Current Value of Asset (Equity) $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- $(200,000) Decision Age - Years Slower Rate of Deterioration Option 2 Replace with New Concrete Culvert $1.15M

20 The Benefits of Using Equity as the Basis for Engineering Decisions $1,200,000 $1,000,000 Option 3 Line Culvert $250k Current Value of Asset (Equity) $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- Decision $(200,000) Age - Years

21 With Equity Curves Simple Life Cycle Analysis is Practical Name Initial Construction Traffic Control Initial Costs Engineering, Inspection, R/W Total Initial Cost Estimated Maintenance Costs Per 10 Year Interval Replace ment Year Present Value (calculated) Option 1 Coated Steel $748,400 $64,500 $187,100 $1,000,000 $4, $1,131,192 Precast Option 2 Concrete $850,240 $87,200 $212,560 $1,150,000 $6, $893,554 Option 3 Steel Liner $190,000 $12,500 $47,500 $250,000 $4, $1,380,666 Discount Rate 1.50% Suggested PE, CEI, R/W Factor 0.25 Steel Liner Option Assumes New Steel Culvert Required in 25 Years 21

22 Similar Effort was Recently Performed on Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Approaches using Life Cycle Principles Structure (Fed ID#) Current Status Rehabilitate (Work in 2018) Replace (Work in 2038) Age MHI Current Equity (A) Cost 2018 Post- Repair Value (B) 2048 MHI 2048 Value (C) 2038 Cost = Post-Construct. Value (B) 2048 MHI 2048 Value (C) $48.1 $7.47 $ $41.6 $ $ $83.2 $17.95 $ $76.6 $ $ $77.3 $6.24 $ $84.6 $ $ $51.4 $4.32 $ $44.6 $ $ $71.1 $6.44 $ $64.4 $ $ $67.8 $6.44 $ $64.4 $ $97.9 Σ or Avg $398.9 $48.9 $ $376.1 $ $

23 Present Value Calculation with 20 Year Horizon Option Present Value Comparison - Replace vs. Repair 6 HRBT Approach Bridges - All Values in Millions of 2015 (uninflated) dollars Initial Costs Project Cost Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs Current Value (2016) MHI =.63 Post Repair (pre- Const- ruction) Equity Predicted Values 2048 Lost or Gained Equity per interval Present Repair $49 -$0.4 -$0.6 -$0.8 $399 $606 $561 $516 $376 -$45 -$45 -$140 (293) $ Replace '36-'38 -$645 -$1.1 -$1.9 -$2.4 $399 $395 $360 $322 $568 -$39 -$38 $174 $ (596) Replace or repair all structures. Maintenance costs are applied at year 5 in each interval. All values are expenditures. There are no revenues associated with either option. Lost equity is applied at the end of each 10 year interval Comparison is based solely on value of structures and maintenance needs associated with each option. User costs & other factors not included Value calculated Discount Rate 7.00% 22

24 Using MHI and Other Indices to Select Bridge Projects with a Multi-Objective Prioritization Formula 24

25 Multi-Objective Prioritization Formula Selection of Structures for Intervention Priority = a(if) + b(cf) + c(rf) + d(scf) + e(cef) All five unitless variables have a 0 to 1.0 scale IF = Importance Factor measures the relative importance of each bridge to the overall highway network CF = Condition Factor measures the overall physical condition of each bridge based on the condition of each individual element RF = Risk Factor measures four important risk factors: Redundancy, Scour Susceptibility, Fatigue, and Earthquake vulnerability SCF = Structure Capacity Factor measures the capacity of the structure to convey traffic, including the effects of weight restrictions, waterway adequacy, vertical clearance and deck width CEF = Cost-Effectiveness Factor measures the cost-effectiveness of the required work a, b, c, d, e are coefficients that may be selected to suit the particular evaluation being performed a + b + c + d + e =

26 Multi-Objective Prioritization Formula Selection of Structures for Intervention By separating the five variables users can readily understand why one project has a higher priority than another Coefficients can be selected to align with the programmatic goals of the agency Coefficients currently envisioned for VDOT s Bridge Construction Program: a = 0.30 (Importance) b = 0.25 (Condition) c = 0.15 (Risk) d = 0.10 (Structure Capacity) e = 0.20 (Cost-Effectiveness) 26

27 Importance Factor IF = Importance Factor. Measures relative importance of the structure to the roadway network Uses these variables: Traffic (ADT/Lane) Truck traffic (ADTT/Lane) Predicted future ADT growth Proximity to schools, hospitals and emergency facilities Detour vs. traffic Functional class of roadway 27

28 Condition Factor (CF) Condition is measured using the Modified Health Index (MHI) CF = 1.0 (Modified Health Index/100) MHI is a 0 to 100 measurement of condition MHI value of 100 represents a bridge without defects MHI value of zero represents a bridge that has reached the end of its service life MHI provides an overall condition measurement by weighting each element s condition as a proportion of its relative value to the whole bridge MHI is calculated using element-level data provided during bridge safety inspections, along with element replacement costs 28

29 Risk Factor RF = Risk Factor measures the risk to structures, with an emphasis on redundancy RF = Part A + Part B 1.0 Part A: = 0.75 if one of Scour Critical or Fracture Critical exists = 0.90 if both of Scour Critical and Fracture Critical exists Part B: = 0.10 if one of Seismic Critical or Fatigue Prone Details exists = 0.20 if both of Seismic Critical and Fatigue Prone Details exists 29

30 SCF = Structure Capacity Factor Structure Capacity Factor measures the load and geometric capacity of the structure to convey traffic, including the effects of weight restrictions, waterway adequacy, vertical clearance and deck width SCF =.40(Weight Reduction Factor) +.30(Waterway/Vertical Clearance Factor) +.30(Deck Width Factor) Weight Reduction Factor (WRF) = 0 to 1.0 score measuring ability of structure to carry Fire Trucks, Ambulances, School Buses and Design Vehicles Waterway/Vertical Clearance Factor = 0 to 1.0 score measuring the adequacy of vertical clearance for waterways, railways and trucks Deck Width Factor = 0 to 1.0 score measuring adequacy of deck width vs. need The Weight Reduction Factor is the subject of a forthcoming paper that will be published through the Virginia Transportation Research Council. 30

31 CEF = Cost-Effectiveness Factor Cost-Effectiveness Factor measures the cost-effectiveness of the required work CEF = -2(RC/SRC) +1.3 Max 1.00, Min 0.00 RC = Repair Cost: Initial Prioritization uses Bridge Management System Recommendations. Final Scoring uses refined scope and estimate after prescoping phase SRC = Structure Replacement Cost: Based on statewide replacement cost averages with escalation factors for preliminary engineering, right of way, growth, and construction inspection. Final Scoring may be adjusted using more in-depth cost estimates during pre-scoping phase Note: CEF = 1.00 for ratios of RC/SRC 0.15 CEF = 0.00 for ratios of RC/SRC 0.65 CEF varies linearly from 1.00 to 0.00 as ratio of RC/SRC varies from 0.15 to

32 Examples of CEF Calculations Repair Cost (RC) Structure Replacement Cost (SRC) Ratio (RC/SRC) CEF Score $ 50,000 $ 1,000, $ 150,000 $ 1,000, $ 250,000 $ 1,000, $ 350,000 $ 1,000, $ 367,523 $ 1,000, $ 450,000 $ 1,000, $ 550,000 $ 1,000, $ 650,000 $ 1,000, $ 750,000 $ 1,000, $ 850,000 $ 1,000, $ 950,000 $ 1,000,

33 1.20 CEF Score vs RC/SRC Ratio 1.00 CEF Score CEF Score RC/SRC Ratio

34 Formula- Produced Prioritized List Variables Final Values Bridge # Importance Factor Condition Factor Risk Factor Structure Capacity Factor Cost- Effectiveness Factor Score Rank Scope Estimate for Recommended Scope Estimated Total Replacement Cost Major Restoration $1,652,651 $15,034,241 Replace Superstructure $6,675,231 $13,014, Major Restoration $280,579 $3,435, Major Restoration $67,619 $837, Rehabilitate Culvert $378,938 $769, Replace Bridge $4,957,098 $4,957, Replace Bridge $2,179,301 $2,179, Replace Superstructure $308,190 $1,040, Replace Bridge $335,158 $335, Major Repair $363,855 $3,678, Replace Superstructure $257,366 $924, Replace Deck $1,949,697 $8,663,145 34

35 Thank you for your time and attention Questions??

BRIDGE ALTERNATE STUDY No. 1

BRIDGE ALTERNATE STUDY No. 1 RURAL STREAM CROSSING Prepared for U. S. Bridge Cambridge, Ohio Prepared by RICHLAND ENGINEERING LIMITED 29 North Park Street, Mansfield, Ohio 44902-1769 419/524-0074 FAX 419/524-1812