A 2017 Project of the Atlantic Chamber of Commerce. The Economies of the Atlantic Provinces

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1 A 217 Project of the Atlantic Chamber of Commerce The Economies of the Atlantic Provinces

2 The Economies of the Atlantic Provinces is a resource for understanding economic developments in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador. This overview highlights changes over the recent past and provides insights as to where the economies of each may be headed. The charts reflect data sets from 2 to 216 (or latest year available), gathered from a variety of sources (documented on each). PDF is to be viewed in single page, full screen mode, not slideshow mode. Many of the charts show data with the starting year indexed to 1. This effectively shows percentage changes over time, across jurisdictions of vastly different sizes. This document is for information purposes only. All charts/tables are sourced on data in the public domain. Prepared for the Atlantic Chamber of Commerce by LexEcon Inc,

3 Titles (Click to go to Page) Index Titles Click to Return to Index Page 4 Growth in Real GDP 5 Government Consumption Expenditures as % of GDP 6 Capital Formation by Business & Government 7 Total Exports of Goods & Services as % of GDP 8 Population Growth Population, Atlantic & Atlantic as % of Canada 1 Growth in Urban Centers and Provinces 11 Population Dynamics 12 Interprovincial Migration 13 International Immigrants 14 Components of International Migration Labour Force Growth 16 Growth in Full-time Employment 17 Employment Growth, Public and Private Sectors 18 Unemployment Rate 19 EI Claimants of Regular Benefits 2 EI Claimants of Regular Benefits as % of Labour Force 21 Labour Productivity 22 Growth in Average Weekly Earnings 23 Minimum Wages 24 Retail Sales 25 Automobile Sales (Units) 26 Changing Pattern of Auto Sales 27 Manufacturing Sales 28 Housing Starts 29 Value of Building Permits by Type 3 Farm Cash Receipts 31 Value of Fish Landings 32 Aquaculture Gross Output 33 In-province Energy Generation by Source 34 Comparison of Residential Electricity Prices 35 Comparison of Medium Industrial Electricity Prices 36 International Exports, Total 37 International Exports by Destination 38 International Exports by Type 39 Fixed Roof Accommodation & Nights Sold (215) by Prov. 4 Provincial Government Net Debt 41 Provincial Government Net Debt as % of Own-source Rev. 42 Provincial Government Program Expenditures 43 Federal Transfers as % of Provincial Government Revenues 44 Comparison of Provincial Tax Rates 45 Comparison of Workers Compensation Rates

4 Growth in Real GDP (Year 2=1) NL Canada PE NS NB Recession NL - substantial boom growth up to 27, followed by no growth in real GDP through to 215 Canada, PE, NS & NB - followed a similar pattern up to the 28/9 recession Canada & PE - on a growth trajectory since 29 NS & NB - growth of real GDP has stagnated 29 to both have shown growth in 215 Source: Statistics Canada, & British Columbia Statistics Agency

5 Government Consumption Expenditures as % of GDP 35% 32% 28% 25% 21% 18% 14% 11% 7% 4% % Canada NL PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada Table Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual Total Government Expenditures (noncapital) in the Atlantic Provinces are a higher % of GDP than for Canada (which has changed very little over the past 15 years). NL has the lowest percentage of the Atlantic Provinces, followed by NB, then PE & NS.

6 Net Additions to Capital (27 $) ($ X 1,,) 1, 7,5 NL Business Government 1, 75 PE 5, 5 2, ,5 4,875 NS , 4,5 NB 3,25 3, 1,625 1, Source: Statistics Canada Table Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual (dollars x 1,,)

7 9% Total Exports of Goods & Services as % of GDP 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% On an Economic Accounts Basis, NB s GDP is significantly more dependent on exports of goods and services (including both international & interprovincial), and that contribution is increasing over time. NL, while not as high as NB, is also very dependent on exports. PE follows, and then NS with a slightly lower % of exports to GDP. % NL PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada Table Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, provincial and territorial, annual

Growth in Population (Year 2=1) 122 119 116 113 11 16 13 Canada PE NS NB NL 1 97 94 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Canada - steady growth PE - growth to half of Canada s rate by 216, with most

8 Growth in Population (Year 2=1) Canada PE NS NB NL Canada - steady growth PE - growth to half of Canada s rate by 216, with most growth since 28 NB & NS - no growth (NS - slight uptick in 216) NL - declines to 27 followed by recovery to 2 level in 216 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table Population as of July 1.

9 Population in 216 Atlantic Provinces Atlantic Provinces as % of Canada NL 22% NB 32% PE 6% Atlantic Provinces 7% Rest of Can. 93% NS 4% Over time, Atlantic Canada s share of Canada s population has been decreasing, with implications on political/economic power and representation. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table Population as of July 1.

10 Population Change of CMAs & CAs 211 to 216 St. John's (CMA) Corner Brook (CA) Gr. Falls-Win. (CA) Gander (CA) Bay Roberts (CA) Rest of Province Province Halifax (CMA) Cape Breton (CA) Truro (CA) New Glasgow (CA) Kentville (CA) Rest of Province Province 4.6% 1.6% 3.2% 4.3% 2.% -2.2% 1.% -8.% -6.% -4.% -2.% % 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% 3.3% -2.9% -.3% -3.7% -.5% -2.1%.2% -8.% -6.% -4.% -2.% % 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% Moncton (CMA) Saint John (CMA) Fredericton (CA) Bathurst (CA) Miramichi (CA) Edmundston (CA) Campbellton (CA) Rest of Province Province Charlottetown (CA) Summerside (CA) Rest of Province Province -6.6% -2.2% -2.6% -2.1% -1.2% -.9% -.5% 4.% 3.5% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% -2.1%.6% 1.9% 5.8% -8.% -6.% -4.% -2.% % 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% NL - St. John s CMA and all CAs grew. Rest of province declined. Different pattern than other 3 provinces. NB - Moncton and Fredericton grew; all other categories declined, including province as a whole. NS - only Halifax CMA grew, leading to a slight increase for the province. PE - Charlottetown CA had the largest % increase in the region, as did the province as a whole. Source:: Statistics Canada, Population and Dwelling Count Highlight Tables, 216 Census A CMA must have a total population of at least 1, of which 5, or more must live in the core. A CA must have a core population of at least 1,.

11 Population Dynamics Deaths now exceed births in all four Atlantic Provinces and the gap is projected to increase over time. Deaths > Births = Declining Population unless there is Positive Immigration (either Net Interprovincial and/or Net International) Given recent trends in net out-migration to other provinces, international migrants are key to sustaining & growing the population of Atlantic Canada. As a point of interest, there were more international immigrants to Canada in the past 9 years than the total population of Atlantic Canada.

Interprovincial Migration 212-216 5 25 61 1,645 1,631-25 -3,471-4 -5-75 -13,93-12,391-1 -125-1,292-15 NL PE NS NB Net Interprovincial migration with other Atlantic Provinces Net Interprovincial

12 Interprovincial Migration ,645 1, , ,93-12, , NL PE NS NB Net Interprovincial migration with other Atlantic Provinces Net Interprovincial migration with rest of Canada Source: Statistics Canada, Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada Internal migration in Canada from 212/213 to 214/215.(Year is June 3 to July of following year)

International Immigrants (per 1 Population) 2. 18. 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4.

13 International Immigrants (per 1 Population) PE has substantially more immigration activity relative to population than the other Atlantic provinces and this accounts for the growth in total population. NS & NB saw a significant bumpup in numbers in NL PE NS NB Source: Table International migration components, Canada, provinces and territories, annual

Components of 215 Immigration (per 1 Population) 12 11 9 8 8.7 8.9 8. While immigration numbers change over time, this provides a snapshot of composition in 215. 7 5 4 3 1 6.9 5.3 4.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.

14 Components of 215 Immigration (per 1 Population) While immigration numbers change over time, this provides a snapshot of composition in NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC YT NT NU Total Economic Family Humanitarian Source:: 216 Annual Report to Parliament, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada The Economic Category accounts for the vast majority of international migrants, although the Family & Humanitarian Categories are significant in some provinces.

15 Labour Force (Year 2=1) Labor Force is the number of working age population working or looking for work The Labour Force in each of the Atlantic Provinces started to decline around 212/ Canada NL PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada Table Labour force survey estimates (LFS)

16 Full-time Employment (Year 2=1) Canada NL PE NS NB While NL s growth in full-time employment surpassed that of Canada between 21 and 214, it has declined since 212. PE showed considerable strength up to 214 but has also declined of late. NS & NB have shown no growth since the recession of 28/9. Source: Statistics Canada Table Labour force survey estimates (LFS)

Public Sector Employment Private Sector Employment 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1

(Year 2=1) Canada NL PE NS NB 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 NL - public sector

a decline in 216 PE - public sector employment well above the region to 213 - in

employment growth has levelled out since 29; no growth in private sector

in private sector employment since 27 Source:: Table 282-89 Labour force survey

17 Public Sector Employment Private Sector Employment (Year 2=1) (Year 2=1) Canada NL PE NS NB NL - public sector employment in decline since 213; strong growth in private sector employment, with a decline in 216 PE - public sector employment well above the region to in decline since; private sector growth 2nd highest in region NS - public sector employment growth has levelled out since 29; no growth in private sector employment since 27 NB - public sector employment in decline since 29; no growth in private sector employment since 27 Source:: Table Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by class of worker and sex, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, annual (persons

18 Unemployment Rate % Canada NL PE NS NB NL s unemployment rate saw significant improvement through to 213, but has been increasing since. PE, NS & NB have shown modest improvement over the 16 year period. Source: Statistics Canada Table Labour force survey estimates (LFS)

E I Claimants - Regular Benefits (Year 2=1) 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 2 22 24 26 28 21 212

19 E I Claimants - Regular Benefits (Year 2=1) Canada NL PE NS NB The impact of the 28-9 recession is evident, particularly for all of Canada. All jurisdictions saw significant improvement 21 through 214, but an upward trend has followed to 216. The Atlantic Provinces, nevertheless, had fewer regular claimants in 216 than in 2. Source: Statistics Canada Table Employment Insurance program (EI), beneficiaries by province, type of income benefits, sex and age, annual

EI Claimants of Regular Benefits as % of the Labour Force 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% While the Atlantic Provinces had no more regular EI claimants in 216 than in 2, the relative significance

20 EI Claimants of Regular Benefits as % of the Labour Force 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% While the Atlantic Provinces had no more regular EI claimants in 216 than in 2, the relative significance of Employment Insurance to the Atlantic Provinces is much greater. In 216 for example, on average the number of EI regular claimants in NL was 15% of the labour force, and in PE, 11%. % Canada NF PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada Table Employment Insurance program (EI), beneficiaries by province, type of income benefits, sex and age, annual

21 $7 $63 $56 $49 $42 $35 $28 $21 $14 $7 $ Labour Productivity (chained (27) dollars per hour) Labour productivity is the ratio between real value added and hours worked. Canada NL PE NS NB Productivity is multifaceted and involves the structure of the economy including seasonality, human and physical capital utilization, the use and integration of technology and information etc. This single measure is indicative only. There is a strong association between Labour Productivity and Real GDP Per Capita. Source Table Labour productivity and related measures by business sector industry and by non-commercial activity consistent with the industry accounts, provinces and territories, annual)

22 Growth in Average Weekly Earnings (Year 2=1) NL s growth has far surpassed the other Atlantic Provinces and Canada. PE s growth has been above NS, NB & Canada since 28. NS & NB growth has closely tracked Canada, but surpassed Canada in Canada NL PE NS NB Table Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), employment and average weekly earnings (including overtime) for all employees by (NAICS), seasonally adjusted, annual

23 Minimum Hourly Wage Rates as of Oct. 216 Announced for 217 Source: Retail Council of Canada Alberta British Columbia Manitoba New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Ontario Prince Edward Island Quebec Saskatchewan 1-Oct-17 $ Sep-17 $ Apr-17 $11. 1-Apr-17 $ Oct-17 $11. +CPI 1-Oct-17 $ Apr-17 $ May-17 $ CPI & Ave. Hr. Wage

24 Retail Sales (Year 2=1) NL Canada PE NB NS Recession NL - leading the region since 29, but slowing since 214 PE, NB & NS - below rate of increase for Canada, but showing strength in 216 Source: Statistics Canada. Table Retail trade, sales by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), annual (dollars)

Automobile Sales (Units) (Year 2=1) 18 167 153 14 127 113 1 87 73 6 International immigration? Energy?

25 Automobile Sales (Units) (Year 2=1) International immigration? Energy? PE NL CAN NS NB Source: Statistics Canada Cansim Table 79-3 New motor vehicle sales, Canada, provinces and territories, annual(1)

26 Changing Pattern of the Vehicle Market (Units) (Year 2=1) 2 Canada This same pattern of divergent growth is also found in all Atlantic Provinces Passenger vehicles Trucks (includes minivans, SUVs, trucks) Source: Statistics Canada Cansim Table 79-3 New motor vehicle sales, Canada, provinces and territories, annual(1)

Manufacturing Sales (Year 2=1) 3 275 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 NL PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada

leading the region; in decline from 212 to 216, but ending with the highest rate over the period NB - growth above PE and NS, but

27 Manufacturing Sales (Year 2=1) NL PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada Table Manufacturing sales, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and province NL - strong upward trend and leading the region; in decline from 212 to 216, but ending with the highest rate over the period NB - growth above PE and NS, but in decline since 213 PE - consistent growth since 211, matching NB by 216 NS - in decline since 211 and showing no overall growth since 2

28 Annual Housing Starts (Units) (Year 2=1) CAN NL PE NS NB CAN - no growth since 24 NL - boom/bust pattern PE, NS & NB - trending downward since 211 Source: Statistics Canada Table 27-8 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, annual (units)

29 Value of Building Permits ($ X 1,) 1,25, 3, NL PE 1,, 24, 75, 18, 5, 12, 25, 6, ,75, 1,25, NS NB 1,4, 1,, 1,5, 75, 7, 5, 35, 25, Residential Industrial Commercial Institutional & Government Source: Statistics Canada Table 26-3 Building permits, values by activity sector, annual

30 Farm Cash Receipts ($x1,) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, NL PE NS NB NS & NB - industries are roughly the same size; growth since 2 - NS 41%, NB 55% PE - although the industry is smaller in absolute size, it is much more significant to the total economy; 47% growth since 2 NL - while small in relative size, has shown consistent growth - 76% over the 15 years Source: Statistics CanadaTable 2-1 Farm cash receipts, annual (dollars x 1,)

31 Value of Fish Landings ($x1,) 1,25, 86% Increase 9, 69% Increase 1,, NS 72, NL 75, 54, 5, 36, 25, 18, , 32, 24, 16, 8, NB 139% Increase 2, 79% Increase 16, 12, 8, 4, PE Groundfish Pelagic & other finfish Shellfish Other Source: DFO Value of Provincial Landings, various years

32 Aquaculture Gross Output ($x1,) 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, PE NS NL NB NB - largest industry in the region but decreasing in size, both in absolute size and as a proportion of the region NL - rapid growth, now almost as large as NB NS - half the size of NL but expanding of late PE - half the size of NS with slight growth Source: Statistics CanadaTable 3-3 Aquaculture economic statistics, value added account, annual (dollars x 1,)

33 45, In-province Electricity Generation - Primary Fuel (GWh) 8 36, 64 27, 48 18, 32 NL PE 9, , Hydro/Tidal Wind Biomass/Geothermal Solar Coal/Coke Oil Uranium Natural Gas 15, 15, 11,25 1, NB 7,5 NS 5, 3, Source: NEB Canada s Energy Future 216: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 24

34 Cost of Electricity - Residential cents/kwh % Increase (right axis) % % 59% 52% 46% 39% 33% % 26% 2% 3 11% 7% 8% 13% 7% S. John s Halifax Moncton Charlottetown Toronto NL - lowest electricity rates in region NB - second lowest rates, and low rate of increase 21 to 216 NS - highest % increase in region 21 to 216 PE - highest rates but relatively low rate of increase Toronto - rates went up 62% between 21 & 216 and are now higher than any Atlantic Province Source: Quebec Hydro Comparison of Electricity Rates in Major North american Cities 21 and 216, rates as of April 1 %

35 Cost of Electricity - Medium Power cents/kwh Power demand 1, kw, Consumption 4, kwh, Load factor 56% St. John s Halifax Moncton Charlottetown Toronto Source: Quebec Hydro Comparison of Electricity Rates in Major North American Cities 21 and 216, rates as of April 1

36 Total International Exports (Year 27=1) PE SK BC ON QC MB NS AB NB 216 $ Values $1.3 B $26.5 B $4.4 B $249.4 B $8.3 B $13.6 B $5.3 B $79.3 B $1.6 B Source: Trade Data On-line NL $8.4 B

37 216 Total International Exports Top 1 Countries ($x1,) United States India China Japan Indonesia Thailand Turkey United Kingdom Dominican Rep Hong Kong United States China France United Kingdom Japan Hong Kong Korea, South Mexico Vietnam Germany 2,5, 5,, 7,5, 1,, 216 NB USA is 92% of Total NS USA is 68% of Total 1,, 2,, 3,, 4,, United States United Kingdom China Netherlands Belgium Japan Spain Italy France Trinidad & Tobago Source: Trade Data On-line United States Germany Japan Australia France United Kingdom Brazil Korea, South Afghanistan China NL USA is 6% of Total 1,25, 2,5, 3,75, 5,, PE USA is 7% of Total 25, 5, 75, 1,,

38 216 International Exports Top 1 Products ($x1,) Source: Trade Data On-line PE % Potatoes - Frozen 283,75 21% Lobsters - Frozen 137,911 1% Turbo-Propellers 7,597 5% Potatoes - Fresh, except Seed 69,119 5% Lobsters - Prepared or Preserved 66,168 5% Parts of Turbo-Jets or Turbo-Props 56,125 4% Mussels - Live, Fresh or Chilled 42,538 3% Diagnostic Reagents 37,551 3% Turbo-Propellers - >1,1 Kw 29,827 2% Sanitary Food or Beverage Containers 22,72 2% Total (All Products) 1,322,823 NB Light Oils and Preparations 2,85,79 27% Petroleum Oils 2,71,925 19% Lumber 469,688 4% Lobsters - Frozen 434,9 4% Salmon 35,412 3% Chemical Woodpulp 296,777 3% Petroleum Oils and Oils etc. 278,243 3% Petroleum Bitumen 266,289 3% Paper, Fine 26,247 2% Lobsters - Prepared or Preserved 25,719 2% Total (All Products) 1,635,73 NS % Pneumatic Rubber Tires 1,378,68 26% Lobsters- Not Frozen 683,7 13% Chemical Woodpulp 224,378 4% Crabs - Frozen 222,641 4% Lobsters - Frozen 28,529 4% Paper, Fine 173,463 3% Shrimps & Prawns 17,92 2% Lumber 95,546 2% Scallops 83,589 2% Fruits & Nuts-Frozen 79,53 1% Total (All Products) 5,335,963 NL Crude Petroleum Oils 3,865,131 46% Iron Ores and Concentrates 926,634 11% Light Oils and Preparations 91,824 11% Iron Ores and Concentrates etc. 574,388 7% Crabs - Frozen 398,821 5% Petroleum Oils 395,12 5% Cold-Water Shrimps and Prawns 232,243 3% Copper Ores and Concentrates 192,351 2% Newsprint 146,12 2% Nickel 18,248 1% Total (All Products) 8,436,98

39 (x1,) 5,5 4,95 4,4 3,85 3,3 2,75 2,2 1,65 1,1 55 Fixed Roof Accommodation 215 5,62 3,183 2,764 2,531 1,661 1,397 1, NB NS NL PE Room nights available Room nights sold Tourism Indicator NB NS NL PE Available per capita Sold per capita Room nights available is the inventory of fixed accommodation. Room nights sold indicates usage. The ratio of use to availability is the overall occupancy rate. In absolute terms, NS has the largest inventory & sales. Relative to population, PE has the largest inventory & usage in the region, but the overall occupancy rate is lower. Both NS & NL are similar in relative terms, with NB slightly smaller. Source: Tourism Nova Scotia Historical Tourism Activity Tourism Indicators New Brunswick Newfoundland and labrador Tourism Indicatorshttp:// Prince Edward Island Tourism Indicators

40 Provincial Government Net Debt (Year 2-1=1) PE NB NL NS ON Net debt is gross debt less financial assets. Since 27-8, PE has had the largest increase in net debt in the region, followed by NB. NL saw decreases to , but is on an upward trajectory since. NS s increase is significantly less. ON s net debt continues to rise and has now outpaced Atlantic Canada. Source: Federal Finance Fiscal Reference Tables, Interim

41 Provincial Government Net Debt as % of Own-source Revenues 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% NL NB NS PE 1% 5% % NL - substantial improvement until 28-9 followed by deterioration since NB - increasing since 28-9 NS - trending downward but leveling out since 27-8 PE - slight increase since 28-9 Source: Federal Finance Fiscal Reference Tables, Interim

42 Provincial Government Program Expenditures 2/1= NL NS NB PE NL- highest growth rate NS - second highest growth, but leveling out NB & PE - showing restraint of late Source: Federal Finance Fiscal Reference Tables, Interim

43 Federal Transfers as % of Total Provincial Revenues 5% 46% 42% 38% 34% 3% 26% 22% 18% 14% NL experienced a significant change in Federal Transfers as it became a have province. NS, NB & PE have shown no significant long term change. The year to year changes, nevertheless, can have a significant impact on annual budgets. 1% NL NS NB PE Source: Federal Finance Fiscal Reference Tables, Interim

44 Provincial Tax Rates 216 Source :Manitoba Budget 216 Tax comparisons BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL Personal Income Tax! Top Marginal Rate (%) ! Basic Personal Amount ($) 1,27 18,451 15,843 9,292 1,27 11,55 9,758 8,481 8, 8,82 Health Care Premiums ($) Health and Education Tax (%) Corporation Income Tax (%) ! Small ! Large ! Manufacturing ! Small Business Limit ($) Capital Tax (%)! Banks ! Small Financial Institutions.7 Sales Tax (%) Gasoline Tax ( /l) Diesel Fuel Tax ( /l) Tobacco Tax ( /cigarette) Corporation Income Tax Credits ! Manufacturing (%) ! Research & Development (%)

Components of 216 Workers Compensation Rates ($ /$1 Payroll) 3. 2.7 2.

45 Components of 216 Workers Compensation Rates ($ /$1 Payroll) Other Amortization of Surplus & Deficits Occupational Health & Safety Costs Administration Costs Compensation Costs Actual rate per $1 of payroll NB - $1.11 NS - $2.65 PE - $1.77 NL - $ BC AB SK MB QC NB NS PE NL NT/NU YT Source: Association of Workers Compensation Boards of Canada (AWCBC)

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