DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS. Short Course on Environmental Planning DCERP & HUMEIN Phils. Inc.

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1 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Ronaldo O. Rogel, EnP Adjunct Associate Professor DCERP, College of Human Ecology University of the Philippines Los Baños January 14, 2017 Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro Short Course on Environmental Planning

2 For us to plan properly, we must manage our population Goodluck Jonathan President of Nigeria

3 WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY? From the Greek language, demography means description of people. From the Multi-Lingual demographic dictionary of the United Nations, demography is defined as: scientific study of human population primarily with respect to size, structure and development. concerned with current size and characteristics of human population, how they were attainted and how they are changing.

4 Demography or population studies represents the starting point for planning at all scales Plans are by nature oriented toward the future, estimates of the composition of a given population at a future date will be necessary Short Course on Environmental Planning

5 POPULATION refers to the total number of individuals in a territory at a specified time. Population is the basis for determining whether the level of public services like schools, health centers, recreational facilities, power and water supply, is adequate/inadequate or accessible/inaccessible. Short Course on Environmental Planning

6 Demography or population studies represents the starting point for planning at all scales Provides guidelines for deciding total land requirements and the basis of land between various competing land uses Short Course on Environmental Planning

7 Demography or population studies represents the starting point for planning at all scales Population make-up and distribution dictates the policy for most of the human settlements needs Short Course on Environmental Planning

8 Fig

9 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Demographic analysis 1 Generates relevant population data in a specific area 2 Involves the determination of present trends governing changes in population statistics as well as future population shifts in a given area 3 Can readily be accessed from the National Census conducted nationwide at regular five-year intervals Short Course on Environmental Planning

10 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Demographic analysis In undertaking demographic analysis, three aspects of the population must be studied: SIZE CHARACTERISTICS DISTRIBUTION Short Course on Environmental Planning

11 Population POPULATION studies STUDIES DATA EXISTING POPULATION TRENDS IN POPULATION FUTURE POPULATION Size Current population Any symptoms of change? Prediction Characteristics Breakdown of population Trend (increasing, stable, decreasing) Prediction Distribution Examine distribution Alteration in the distribution Prediction

12 DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS 1 Fundamental Demographic Methods Trend Models Treat the population as a whole without disaggregation with respect to age, sex or other characteristics. Composition Models Treat a given population as an aggregate of the various groups, and the evolution of the population results (in part) from the interaction of these groups

13 DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS 2 Methods of Population Projection Mathematical Method Estimates future population Economic Method Projects future population based on economic conditions Component or Cohort-Survival Method Projects population by demographic components

14 POPULATION CHANGE- - - hort Course on Environmental Planning CERP & HUMEIN Phils. Inc.

15 FERTILITY refers to the live births that occur within a population

16 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) refers to the number of births divided by the midyear population, usually expressed in terms of thousands. It is the simplest and most commonly used index of fertility

17 CBR = _B_ X 1000 P Where: B No. of Births in a given year P - Total Mid-year population of same year Example: = 297 X CBR = 29.7 per 1000 population

18 Total Mid-year Population (July 1) Pt = Po (1 + r/100) t Where: Po = pop at an earlier period Pt = unknown pop or to be estimated 1.0 = constant r = annual population growth rate t = time interval between Po and Pt

19 MORTALITY refers to the occurrence of deaths in a population

20 Crude Death Rate (CDR) is a rough measure of mortality. It refers to the number of deaths per 1,000 population

21 CDR = _D_ X 1000 P Where: D No. of Deaths in a given year P - Total Mid-year population of same year Example: = 70 X CDR = 7 per 1000 population

22 Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) Rate of population increase in a given period due to births and deaths

23 RNI = (CBR - CDR) Example: CBR (Philippines, 1990) = 29.7 per 1000 population CDR (Philippines, 1990) = 7.0 per 1000 population RNI = (CBR - CDR) = ( ) = 22.7 or

24 MIGRATION Geographic movement of people across a specified boundary for the purpose of establishing a new permanent or semipermanent residence

25 Immigration Rate The number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000 population at that destination in a given year. IR = _Number of immigrants x 1,000 Total population at destination Example: 39,895_ X 1000 = 4.5 per 1,000 residents 8,844,499

26 Emigration Rate The number of emigrants departing an area of origin per 1,000 population at that area of origin in a given year. ER = _Number of emigrants x 1,000 Total population at origin Example: 33,884_ X 1000 = 3.8 per 1,000 residents 8,844,499

27 Net migration Rate Shows the net difference between the numbers of persons entering a geographic area (Immigrants) and those leaving the area (Emigrants) per 1,000 population of a an area in a given year. ER = Number of immigrants Number of emigrants x 1,000 Total population Example: 39,895-33,884_ X 1000 = per 1,000 8,844,499 population through migration

28 POPULATION DYNAMICS The balance among fertility, mortality and migration determines whether a population increases, remains stationary, or decreases in number. The relation between births and deaths is referred to as Natural Population Increase (Natural Population Growth). When the net effect of migration is added to natural increase, this referred to as Total Natural Increase (Total Growth).

29 Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI Municipality of Pangarap 2015 # of Births: 672 # of Deaths: 245 Mid-year Population : 23,

30 Compute for CBR, CDR, and RNI (Answers) CBR= 672/23,400 x 1,000 = or 29 per 1,000 population CDR= 245/23,400 x 1,000 =10.47 or 10 per 1,000 population RNI= = or

31 COMPUTING POPULATION GROWTH RATES

32 ARITHMETIC CHANGE Assumes that there are linear increases or decreases in population

33 r = Pt Po t (Po) ** k Example: Pt = Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536 Po = May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206 t = r =? r = 68,616,536 60,703, (60,703,206) * 100 r = 2.44 percent

34 GEOMETRIC CHANGE Assumes that the population changes at a rate where the increments or decreases are compounded over a specified period

35 r antilog = log Pt Po t - 1 * k Example: Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536 Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206 t = r =? k = 100 Pt = Po (1 + r/100) t

36 r = antilog Pt Po t - 1 * k r = antilog log 68,616,536 60,703, * 100 r = antilog r = * * 100 r = 2.32 percent

37 EXPONENTIAL CHANGE Assumes an instantaneous growth rate

38 Example: r = Pt Po In t * k Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536 Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206 t = r =? k = 100 Pn = Poe rt

39 r = r = r = r = Pt Po In t 68,616,536 60,703,206 In * k * * percent

40 DOUBLING TIME OF VARIOUS Refers to the length of time a particular population would double its size under a given growth rate

41 Doubling time = 69.3* Growth Rate (%) Example: Doubling time = Doubling time = 29.5 years *It takes 69.3 years for a 1% Growth Rate to double the population size

42 DOUBLING TIME Doubling Time of Various Rates of Growth Rates of Growth (%) Doubling Time (Years)

43 ADD TABLE

44 When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the 46,800 Population? Population: 23,400 R =

45 When will the Municipality of Pangarap reach the 46,800 Population? Doubling time = 69.3/2.19 = or 32 years When? : =

46 POPULATION PROJECTIONS

47 POPULATION PROJECTIONS Short Course on Environmental Planning

48 There are different methods of projecting future population. This guide suggests the combined use of GEOMETRIC and PARTICIPATION RATE.

49 r = antilog Pt log Po t - 1 * k GEOMETRIC METHOD Pt = Po (1 + r/100) t Short Course on Environmental Planning

50 PARTICIPATION RATE METHOD (PR) This method simply uses ratio or percent share of a particular segment of population to total population using actual/latest census data. EXAMPLE: PR Working Age = Pop n years old Total population Population per barangay Dependent population Labor force population Population per age group Short Course on Environmental Planning

51 Short Course on Environmental Planning

52 City/Municipal Population Projection Projection required is yearly for the first 5 years and 5 years thereafter. Participation Rate (PR) = Po (base pop n of City/Municipality) Po (base pop n of province) Short Course on Environmental Planning

53 City/Municipal Population Projection (Planning Period ) Province City/ Mun. Base Pop n (Po 1 ) (2010) PR 2 Projected Population Province 215, City/ Mun. 57, * (69403) (70597) (71726) (72874) 76354** 81778** 1 use latest census data 2 Participation Rate = Po (City/Mun.) Po (Province) 3 given data obtained from NSO *projected pop n of city/mun., 2017 = PR x Projected Pop n of province 2017 **apply same formula using data corresponding to the projection year 2020 and 2025 (xxxxx) : derived by PR method xxxxx : computed based on growth rate (r), assumed to be constant between 5-year interval projection for the province

54 Use the Geometric formula to get the Growth Rate (r) using the two latest census. And use it to project the whole planning period. Growth Rate (r) 2007 and 2010 Growth Rate (r) 2016 to 2025

55 r = antilog Pt log Po t - 1 * k GEOMETRIC METHOD Pt = Po (1 + r/100) t Short Course on Environmental Planning

56 Practice computing r and projected population using geometric formula: Municipality of Pangarap 2010: 21, : 23,400 r =? 2020:?

57 r and projected population using geometric formula r= antilog [0.209/5.3397] 1x100 r= antilog r= x 100 r= 2.02 percent 2020=23,400 (1.0202) 5 = 25,

58 Yearly Population per Barangay City/ Municipality/ Barangay Base Pop n (Po 1 ) (2010) PR 2 Projected Population Total 57, ,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778 Brgy. A 2, ,411 3,470 3,530 3,586 3,644 3,818 4,089 Brgy. B 2, ,343 3,401 3,459 3,515 3,571 3,741 4,007 Brgy. C 3, (3,001) 3,054 3,106 3,156 3,206 3,360 3,598 Etc. Sample computation: xxxxx projected population of the city/municipality previously computed Short Course on Environmental Planning

59 Yearly Population per Barangay PR = Brgy. Pop n Pop n of city/mun. PR, Brgy. A = ,067 = 0.05 Projected population Brgy.= PR of Brgy. x Projected Pop n of city/mun. Short Course on Environmental Planning Pop n (Brgy. A): 2015 = 0.05 x 68,216 = 3, = 0.05 x 69,403= 3,470 etc.

60 Population Projection by Age-Group Age- Group Pop n (Po) (2010) PR 1 Projected Population Total 57, ,216 69,403 70,597 71,726 72,874 76,354 81,778 Under 1 1, ,992 2,027 2,061 2,094 2,128 2,230 2, , ,408 7,537 7,667 7,789 7,914 8,292 8, , 384 9,281 9,430 9,880 10,582 > 80 Sample computation using PR: xxxxx results of previous computations Blank for Practice computation Short Course on Environmental Planning

61 Population Projection by Age-Group 1. PR (age group: Under 1) = Pop n (under 1) Pop n of city/mun. = = 1,666 57,067 Apply the same formula for all other age-groups to get PR for each age-group. 2. Projected pop n of age Under 1 = PR x P(city/mun.) = x 68,216 = 1992 Apply the same formula to project the rest of the population per age-group. Short Course on Environmental Planning

62 Projected Labor Force PR = Pop n in the labor force (or economically active pop n) Pop n 15 years and over Short Course on Environmental Planning

63 Projected Labor Force Household pop n 15 yrs & over In the labor force Pop n Projected Population (Po) PR (2010) 34, ,359 42,079 42,803 43,487 44,184 46,293 49,582 33, ,118 40,816 41,519 42,182 42,858 44,904 48,095 Male 16,647 (0.496) 19,899 20,245 20,593 20,476 21,258 22,272 23,855 Female 16,916 (0.504) 20,219 xxxxx projected population by age-group Short Course on Environmental Planning

64 Projected Labor Force Labor Force PR = 33,563 34,601 = 0.97 Male PR in the Labor Force = 11,647 33,563 = Projected Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Pop n 15 yrs & over = 0.97 x 41,359 = 40,118 Short Course on Environmental Planning

65 Projected Labor Force Projected Male Labor Force, 2015 = PR x Projected Labor Force 2008 = x 40,118 = 19,898 Projected Female Labor Force, 2015 = x 40,118 = 20,219 Repeat procedure to obtain projection for the rest of the planning period. Short Course on Environmental Planning

66 Population Characteristics It refers to the composition of the population in terms of age, sex, marital status and other characteristics of the population. Short Course on Environmental Planning

67 Age Sex Composition Sex Ratio is simply the number of males per 100 females in a population. SR = M * 100 F Short Course on Environmental Planning

68 Age Dependency Ratio The ratio of the population in the dependent ages of 0-14 years and 65 years and over to the population in the working ages years. Child Dependency Ratio = P 0-14 P * 100 Old-Age Dependency Ratio = P 65 over P *100 Age Dependency Ratio = P P 65 over P *100 Short Course on Environmental Planning

69 Municipality of Pangarap YEAR 2015 All Male Female What is the Young Dependency Ratio, Old Age Dependency Ratio and Age Dependency Ratio?

70 Dependency Ratios Young Dependency Ratio (below 15 years old) = 6,902/12,223 x100 = 56 per 100 working age group Old Age Dependency Ratio (65 years old and above) =1,344/12,223x100 = 11per 100 working age group

71 Dependency Ratios Age Dependency Ratio (below 15 years + 65 years old and above) = 6,902 +1,344 12,223 = 67 per 100 working age group

72 Labor Force Labor Force refers to the population 15 years old and over who contribute to the production of goods and services in the country. Labor Force Participation Rate - proportion of the total number of persons in the labor force to the total population 15 years old and over. Short Course on Environmental Planning

73 Unemployed (new definition) - includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their last birthday and are reported as: i. without work, i.e., had no job or business during the basic survey reference period; and ii. currently available for work, i.e., were available and willing to take up work in paid employment or self employment during the basic survey reference period, and/or would be available and willing to take up work in paid employment or self employment within two weeks after the interview date; and, Short Course on Environmental Planning

74 Unemployed (new definition) - includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their last birthday and are reported as: iii. seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps to look for a job or establish a business during the basic survey reference period; OR not seeking work due to the following reasons: (a) tired/believe no work available, i.e, the discouraged workers who looked for work within the last six months prior to the interview date; (b) awaiting results of previous job applications; (c) temporary illness/disability; (d) bad weather; and (e) waiting for rehire/job recall. Short Course on Environmental Planning

75 Employment Rate - the proportion of total number of employed persons to the total number of persons in the labor force Short Course on Environmental Planning

76 MARITAL STATUS

77 Basic Terms Single - A person who has never been married; Married - A couple living together as husband and wife, legally or consensually; Divorced - A person whose bond of matrimony has been dissolved legally and who therefore can remarry; Short Course on Environmental Planning

78 Basic Terms Separated - A person separated legally or not from his/her spouse because of marital discord or misunderstanding; and Widowed - A person whose bond of matrimony has been dissolved by death of his/her spouse. Short Course on Environmental Planning

79 Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM) The singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) is the average length of single life expressed in years among those who marry before age 50. A measure of nuptiality derived from a set of percent singles at all ages. It denotes the number of years that a married individual spends in singlehood before ultimately marrying. Short Course on Environmental Planning

80 Steps to calculate SMAM The data requirements to calculate SMAM are: (a) the given area s population and (b) the never married population aged by age and sex. The steps are: Short Course on Environmental Planning

81 Steps to calculate SMAM 1. Derive the percent single or never married by age group to 50-54; 2. Sum up the percent single from age group15-19 to age group and multiply the sum by 5; 3. Add 1, Average the percentages for age groups and 50-54; 5. Multiply the result of (4) by 50; 6. Subtract the result of (5) from (3); 7. Subtract the result of (4) from 100; and 8. Divide the result of (6) by the result of (7) Short Course on Environmental Planning

82 SMAM: Sample Database Table 7. SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE, BATANGAS CITY, 2010 Age Pop n Male Pop n Single Pop n Percent (%) Female Pop n Single Pop n Percent (%) All Ages ,254 10,153 9,036 7,509 6,654 5,629 4,713 3,405 2,791 34, 585 9,929 7,273 3,437 1, ,894 10,075 9,136 7,610 6,558 5,534 4,676 3,497 3,031 32,526 9,354 5,786 2,452 1, Short Course on Environmental Planning

83 SMAM: Computation MALE FEMALE 1) ) ) x 5=1, ) x 5 = 1, ) 1, ,500 = 2, ) 1, ,500 = 2, ) = = ) = = ) x 50 = ) x 50 = ) 2, = 2, ) 2, = 2, ) = ) = ) 2, = or 27 8) 2, = 24.6 or 25 Short Course on Environmental Planning

84 POPULATION PYRAMID Short Course on Environmental Planning

85 Three General Types of Population Pyramids 1. Expansive 2. Constrictive 3. Stationary Short Course on Environmental Planning

86 The expansive pyramid has a broad base that indicates high fertility. Short Course on Environmental Planning

87 The constrictive pyramid has a base that is narrower than the middle of the pyramid. It indicates moderate population growth. Short Course on Environmental Planning

88 The stationary type of pyramid has a base which is approximately equal to each subsequent age group, tapering at older ages. It indicates a moderate proportion of the children, a relatively large proportion of persons in the old ages and a low population growth.

89 Rapid Growth Indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the younger ages.

90 Slow Growth Reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the population in the younger ages.

91 Zero or Declining Growth Populations are shown by roughly equal numbers of people in all age ranges, tapering off gradually at the older ages.

92 95

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94 Measures of Urbanization Gross Population Density is expressed as the number of persons per unit of land area, usually in hectares or square kilometers. Short Course on Environmental Planning

95 Net Population Density is the ratio of population to the total area of arable land. An arable land, for convenience, is defined as the total land area of lands classified as alienable and disposable Short Course on Environmental Planning

96 Short Course on Environmental Planning Urban Population Density

97 Level of Urbanization in percent Short Course on Environmental Planning

98 Tempo of urbanization in percentage points Short Course on Environmental Planning

99 SOCIAL SECTOR USE OF POPULATION DATA

100 Short Course on Environmental Planning Education

101 Measurement of School-Going Age Population (6-21 years old) Interpolation Technique - also used in reclassifying the NSO population groupings into the desired school-going age population group School-going age population: Primary Junior HS Senior HS Tertiary 7 to 12 years old 13 to 16 years old 17 to 18 years old 19 to 22 years old Short Course on Environmental Planning

102 Illustration: a. Compute for the primary school going age (6-10) population Ages 5-9 = 4/5 x Population age group 5-9 = 4/5 x 41,109 = 32,887 Ages = 1/5 x Population age group = 1/5 x 33,317 = 6,663 Total Primary School-Going Age Population = 32, ,663 = 39,550 AgeGroup Number Under1 11, , , , , , , ,584 Total 212,263 Short Course on Environmental Planning

103 SPRAGUE MULTIPLIER AGE GROUP POPULATION

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105 Municipality of Pangarap YEAR 2015 All Male Female Compute for the Junior HS (13-16 years old) schoolgoing age population using the: a. Interpolation Technique b. Sprague multiplier

106 Measurement of School Going-Age Population and Present Enrollment 1. Calculation of Current Enrollment Participation Ratio (EPR) EPR = No. of Enrollees by Level School Going Age Population of Relevant Age Level Short Course on Environmental Planning

107 Illustration: Given: School going-age population in the primary level (6-10) = 10,000 No. of enrollees in the primary level = 1,500 EPR = 9,500 x ,000 = 95.00% For every 100 children aged 6-10 years, 95 are enrolled and 5 do not go to school. Short Course on Environmental Planning

108 Measurement of School Going-Age Population and Present Enrollment Short Course on Environmental Planning

109 Measurement of Literacy Rate LR = Population who have completed a year in elementary Population (10 years old and over) Short Course on Environmental Planning

110 Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/ Classroom Facilities 1. Calculation of Student-Teacher Ratio (STR) STR = No. of Enrollees No. of Primary School Teachers Illustration: 53: 1 = 12, There is one teacher available for every 53 students (STD = 1:50) Short Course on Environmental Planning

111 Measurement of Adequacy of Teacher/ Classroom Facilities 2. Calculation of Student-Classroom Ratio (SCR) SCR = No. of Enrollees No. of Classrooms Illustration: 38:1 = 12, One room for every 38 students (STD=1:50) Short Course on Environmental Planning

112 Short Course on Environmental Planning Housing

113 Computation of Housing Need Short Course on Environmental Planning

114 Housing Need Projected Housing need = New Household + Service Backlog New Housing need = New population / Average HH size Backlog: 1. Doubled Up (DUHH) = No. of Households (HH) No. of Housing Units (HU) 2. Unacceptable Housing Units = 5% of HU made of mixed materials 3. Mixed Materials = HU with walls and roof made of wood, cogon/nipa/ Anahaw, asbestos and others (NSO data on Occupied HU by construction materials) 4. Makeshift / Salvage / Improvised HU (per NSO data) 5. Others

115 Short Course on Environmental Planning Social Welfare

116 Tool 1: Inventory and Assessment of Social Welfare Facilities 1. Day Care Center 2. Senior Citizen Care Center 3. Day Center for Street Children 4. Temporary Shelter for Women 5. Reception and Study Center 6. Family Life Resource Center 7. Early Childhood Development Resource Center Short Course on Environmental Planning

117 Tool 2: Clientele Projection of Social Welfare Projected Population (below poverty line) = 16,000 Current Clientele (DSWD Survey) = 2,000 Current Population (below poverty line) = 15,000 Projected Clientele = Projected x Current Clientele Population (Current Population) = 16,000 x 2,000/15,000 = 2,133 Short Course on Environmental Planning

118 Protective Services Short Course on Environmental Planning

119 Tool 1: Inventory and Assessment Related to Peace and Order Condition 1. Police/Firemen 2. Type of Barangay Brigades (disaster, tanod, and traffic auxilliary) 3. Police and Fire Facilities 4. Number and Location of Police/Fire Station and Jails 5. Fire Incidence Short Course on Environmental Planning

120 Tool 2: Determination of Police Force Police Force = Size of Police Force Total Population Policeman to Population Ratio = 40/60,000 = 1:1,500 Each Policeman in the locality serves at least 1,500 inhabitants Ideal: 1 policeman:500 persons Minimum Standard PPR = 1:1,000 Short Course on Environmental Planning

121 Tool 3: Determination of Fireman-Population Ratio Fireman- Population = Ratio No. of Fireman Total Population Fire Population Ration = 6/60,000 = 1:10,000 One fireman serving 10,000 people City/Large Municipalities 1 Fireman: 2,000 people PNP standard 1:500 Short Course on Environmental Planning

122 Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement 1. Population Demand for Policemen a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio for Policemen PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 policemen b. Current Police = Total Population Demand - Force Requirement Actual No. of Police Force CPF = = 100 policemen Short Course on Environmental Planning

123 Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement 2. Population Demand for Firemen a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio for Fireman PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 firemen b. Current Firemen Requirement = Total Population Demand - Actual No. of Firemen = = 100 firemen Short Course on Environmental Planning

124 Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement 3. Projection of Police Force Requirement PPF = Projected Population X Standard Number of Police Force to Population Ratio Short Course on Environmental Planning

125 THANK YOU! Short Course on Environmental Planning 128