Economic Indicators FEBRUARY Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers

Transcription

1 83d Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1953 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1953

2 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Chairman RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont, Vice Chairman RICHARD M. SIMPSON (Pennsylvania) HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa) GEORGE H. BENDER (Ohio) EDWARD J. HART (New Jersey) WRIGHT PATMAN (Texas) RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) ROBERT A. TAFT (Ohio) ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah) BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona) JOHN J. SPARKMAN (Alabama) PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois) J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) GROVER W. ENSI.EY, Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk (Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.), Chairman JOHN D. CLARK, Vice Chairman [PUBLIC LAW sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joim Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved 23, Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce 11

3 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Page The Nation's Economic Accounts 1 Gross National Product 2 PRICES Consumer Prices 3 Wholesale Prices 4 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 5 Stock Prices 6 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Civilian Labor Force 7 Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries \ Average Hourly Earnings -Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production 12 Weekly Production Selected Indicators 13 Production of Selected Manufactures 14 Gross Private Domestic Investment 15 Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 16 New Construction 17 New Housing Starts 18 Inventories and Sales 19 Merchandise Exports and Imports 20 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income 25 Farm Income, 26 CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments 27 Consumer Credit Bond Yiclds and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32

4 THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS On the basis of the income and product accounts, the excess of business investment over gross retained earnings rose during the fourth quarter, while the excess of government expenditures declined. Personal saving continued at about the third quarter rate. ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CONSUMERS EXPENDITURES BUSINESS GOVERNMENT-FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL ^EXCESS OF RECEIPTS 195! 1953 If INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. /_ INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES. NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT, PP , , AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1953, APPENDIX A. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

5 t«y.fe w*< K^K-T dfs*~a * A V^i-«^JLJ JL &\,\^JLS %*J \^ J. In the fourth quarter, gross national product (at seasonally adjusted annual rates) rose $12 billion, according to preliminary estimates. This was the largest quarter-to-quarter gain since the first quarter of. BILLIONS OF DOLL gross national product Personal consumption expenditures [Billions of dollars] Gross private domestic investment Net foreign investment Government purchases of goods and services Seasonally adjusted annual rates National security l Other * : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), atomic energy, merchant marine, promotion of defense prod uction and economic stabilization, and civil defense; excludes Federal Government sales. "For further detail, see Annual Economic Keport of the President January 1953 (p. 105), and Survey of Current Business, July 1952 (p. 12). 2.Residual; expenditures by the Federal Government for other than ''national security" and total expenditures by State and local governments. 3 Preliminary estimates; by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted)

6 CONSUMER PRICES PRICES Consumer prices declined slightly in December, primarily as a result of a 1 percent drop in food prices. Prices of other major groups, except apparel and transportation, increased. Rent showed the largest monthly increase in several years. PERCENT OF AVERAGE 140 PERCENT OF AVERAGE BOUNCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1939 in )iiihlv average 1943 in >nthlv average 1945 n jnthlv average 1946 n >ntl)lv average 1948 n mthlv average 1949 n intlilv average 1950 n )iillilv average monthly average; 1952 monthly average : November December 1952* January February -- March April - - IMav Julv August. September - - October November J )ecember All items Food Apparel , [ = 100] > Housing w Rent Transportation («) « Medical care «« Personal care « Reading and recreation w Other goods and services ( a ) (») « i Tlu- ind«-x numbers, formerly calculated on the base =100, have been converted to the new base = 100 in compliance with recommendations of the U. 8. liuro.au of thr Budget. Beginning with January 1953 the index structure will be changed. Index numbers here are for the "interim adjusted series on me *= ion busc. Descriptions of these indexes are available in a special release from the Department of Labor, a Not fivuilablr. Q Sourer: ^Department of Labor.

7 In January, wholesale prices declined somewhat, chiefly as a result of decreases in prices of farm products. prices fluctuated during the month. There was practically no change in industrial prices. Food PERCENT OF AVERAGE IEO PERCENT OF AVERAGE monthly average monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average monthlv average., monthlv avrrnge 1952* January Februarv IVlarch. - j^pril _ M ay - - July September - October - November _ December Week ended: 1953* Januarv 6 * 13 _ February 3 - -» Not DvnilnMir. Source: Department of Labor. [ =100] All commodities Farm products Processed foods (i) (i) Other than farm products and foods (industrial)

8 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In January, prices received by farmers coniinued the decline begun last September, but at a less rapid rate. paid increased above December and the parity ratio fell to the March 1950 level. Prices PERCENT OF I9IO-I4 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF I9IO-I4 AVERAGE 350 AND WAGE RATES} PARITY RATIO" I I I95I [ =100] 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average... _ monthly average 1946 monthly average _. - _ monthly average 1948 monthly average _ 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthlv average 15.. _ monthly average 1952 monthly average. * _ : December 15. _ : January February March 15 April 15. _ May _ July 15. August 15. September October 15 > November December 15 _ 1953: January 15._ Prices received by farmers Parity index (prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates) 1 Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index. 2 Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and Source: Department of Agriculture Parity ratio >

9 A ff t' i llir utuol year-end rise, stock prices dropped early in January and ihen remained relatively stable for several «Dunns the last week of the month they rose. PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. I Wfckly average: o«1940 8« _ &... C«<M952 ^1952: January "^ February J! March ^i April. _ May % X' Julv._ X' August i September ^ October i November Jf December 19t 3: January * Waek ended: 6i 1953: January 2_ 8? 9 16 G ' Composite index J [1939=100] Manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation , Utilities Trade, finance, and service Mining i Includes 265 common stocks, distributed as follows: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 28 for utilities, and 32 for trade, finance, and service. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission

10 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Although nonagricultural employment in January dropped about 750,000 with the usual post-holiday lull in trade and curtailment of construction activity by winter weather, it was at an all-time high for the month. Farm employment also dropped. Unemployment rose to 1.9 million or 3 percent of the civilian labor force slightly below a year ago. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 PERCENT 20 (. JNEIMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE &; &&V il * 14 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. *&& I960 mn SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average- _ 1950 monthly average monthlv average 1952 monthly average _ : December 1952* January February.. March April - May«_. July August - September October November December : January 2 _ Civilian labor force Employment J Unem- Agriculturacultural Nonagriployment Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over 55, , 750 9,610 36, 140 9, 4BO 54, , 960 8,950 45, , , 027 8,266 49, 761 2,142 61, , 378 7,973 51, 405 2,064 62, , 710 8,026 50, 684 3, , , 957 7, , 450 3, , 482 9,046 52, 436 3,384 62, , 005 7,054 53, 951 1,879 62, , 293 6, , 488 1, , ,014 6,378 54, 636 1,674 61, , 726 6,186 53, 540 2,054 61, , 752 6, , 688 2,086 61,518 59, 714 6,012 53, 702 1,804 61, , 132 6,412 53, 720 1,612 62, , 176 6, ,216 1,602 64, , 572 8, , 402 1,818 64, , 234 7, , 636 1,942 63, , 354 6, ,604 63, , 260 7,548 54, 712 1,438 63, , 862 7,274 54, 588 1,284 63, , 228 6,774 55, 454 1,418 62, , 509 5,697 55, 812 1, Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force * Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs bot were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and Industrial disputes " Data became available after chart was prepared. NOTI. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding , Source: DeDartment of Commerce

11 UIUIJLJ m *CV~l~ - IWUUbTKIJtib The Christmas season accounted for the increase of almost 600/000 employees in retail stores and the 400,000 temporary postal workers in December. With the start of winter weather, contract construction employment dropped. Manufacturing, as well as other industries, continued to operate at high levels of employment. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 9.5 DURABLE MANUFACTURING MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING - J F M A M J J A S O N D I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION J F M A M J J A S O N D o r* i i i i i i i i i i i ~i J F M A M J J A S 0 N D 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average monthly average -_ monthly average monthly average 2 : November. December 1952: Januarv February March April Mav. _.. Julv August _ September October 2 November 2 December 2 10, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 677 (Thousands of wage and salary workers '] Manufacturing Durable goods 4, ,077 8,315 7,465 8,008 7,964 8, 926 9,046 8,976 9,000 8,946 9, 010 9, 035 9, 054 8,991 8, 621 8, 301 8,916 9, 218 9, 368 9, 507 9, 587 Nondurable goods 5,394 6,304 6, 970 6, 681 6,876 6, 702 7, 005 6,939 6,914 6, 913 6,830 6,849 6,834 6, 741 6,663 6, 789 6, 861 7, 112 7,212 7, 171 7, 115 7,090 1, 150 1,567 2, 165 2, 156 2,318 2,414 2, 569 2,546 2,633 2, 518 2,316 2, 308 2,296 2,416 2, 522 2, 663 2, 722 2, 781 2, 763 2, 702 2, 613 2, 444 Trade 6,612 7, 189 9,491 9,438 9,524 9,411 9,804 9, , , 660 9, 720 9,643 9,668 9, 845 9,773 9,838 9, 792 9,784 9, , , , 878 Finance and service 4,703 5,320 6,515 6,545 6,573 6,653 6, 642 6, 721 6,641 6,614 6,580 6, 586 6,618 6,700 6,754 6, 814 6,848 6,837 6,800 6, 738 6, 699 6, 680 Contract construction Government (Federal, State, local) 3,987 6,049 5,613 5,811 5,910 5,832 6, 390 6,628 6,497 6, 881 6,509 6,490 6,528 6,551 6,602 6, 585 6,558 6,589 6,712 6, 695 6, 663 7,049 Transportation and public utilities 2,912 3,619 4, 151 3,979 4,010 4,023 4, 144 4, 168 4,165 4, 161 4, 103 4, 111 4, 118 4,096 4, 131 4, 168 4, 140 4,208 4, 228 4,241 4,234 4, 239 Mining 1 Includes ajj full- and part-time wage and salary workers in ncmagneulttiral establishments wno worked or received pay during toe pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-erbployed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor

12 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES With substantial overtime being worked in December, the average workweek for manufacturing industries increased to 41.8 hours, a post-world War II high. Longer workweeks were reported in both durable and non-durable-goods industries. HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING ) I i i i ill BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE I I I I I I I I 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT. OF LABOR. [Hours per week, selected industries 1 ] Manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods T>,_JI j" jduilding construction Retail trade 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthlv average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthlv average monthly average. monthly average monthlv average 4 _ : November December * January.. February March April May -. _ July... August September October 4 November 4 December ] (2) (!") (2) (2, (2) (2) (2) For productioo and related work era. 3 Not strictly comparable with previous data. * Not available. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor.

13 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of manufacturing workers continued to increase in December, largely because of increased overtime. DOLLARS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING DOLLARS PER HOUR NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING BUILDING CONSTRUCTION i/ EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON BASE *100. SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR monthly average 1943 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1948 month! v average 1949 monthly average monthly average... monthly average monthly average 4 : November.. December 1952: January February... March April.. May July. August September October 4 November 4._ December 4. [Production and related workers in selected industries] All manufacturing Current prices $ prices l $ , Durable goods manufacturing Current prices $ prices J $ Nondurable goods manufacturing Current prices $ prices l $ I Building construction Current prices $ , prices! $ (<) Retail trade Current prices ( J ) (') ( 3 ) $ Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 100 Source: Department of Labor. 2 Not available. 2 Not strictly comparable with previous data. «Preliminary estimates. 10 prices 1 (') < 3 ) (') $

14 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES In December, average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries rose to $72.36, about $1.50 more than in November. They were $5 or 7 percent more than a year ago. When adjusted for price increases, the December-to-DeceiiSQlSI was 6 percent. DOLLARS PER WEEK I I I I! I II I M T I! I I I! I I I I fl o fl I I I I I I M I it TM i M M ijnni \\r\ 1 r ^ EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON BASE «IOO SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average Q monthly average 1950 monthly average. monthly average 1952 monthly average 4 : November December : January. February 3VI arch A pril Mav July _ August»^<'} fiiibrj Or )hrr 4. K, M-iiibor 4 1 >< rllilmt *.... [Production and related workers in selected industries] All manufacturing Current prices $ prices l $ Durable goods manufacturing Current prices $ prices J $ Nondurable goods manufacturing Current prices $ prices 1 $ Building construction Current prices $ prices * $ Retail trade Current prices $ prices J ( 3 ) $ > Kitmm > HI ourmut pr»(^s divided by consumer price indei on base 1»51«1UO. Not strictly comparable with previous data.» N<ii nv HiiMr. < Preliminary estimates, Ht^urm: t»i>urliiirnt of Jjfibor. W

15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production rose again in January, attainin$ a new post-world War II peak, accordins to early estimates. The rise in the durable soods index resulted mainly from increased production of automobiles. Nondurable goods output returned to about the November level/ minerals output declined slightly monthly average 1946 monthly average monthly average 1948 monthly average monthly average 1950 monthly average. monthly average 1952 monthly average 1 : December 1952: January- _ February ^ March. _ April... May July August. September. _ October.... November. December!. 1953: January ]»Preliminary estimates. [ =100, seasonally adjusted] _ industrial production IManufactures Durable goods Nonduraable goods Minerals Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System.

16 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS An all-tirne peak in steel production was reached during January, and output was close to the new theoretical capacity of 2,254,000 tons per week. Electric power output averaged over 8 billion kilowatt-hours a week. Bituminous coal production was below last year, but motor vehicle assemblies were at unusually high levels during the month. MILLIONS OF TONS 3 MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) 3 BITUMINOUS COAL BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS THOUSANDS 200 SOURCES-. AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARtfS AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.. Weekly average: _ : January February March April May _ July August September October November December 1953: January 3 Week ended: 1953: January Thousands of net tons Ste 1, 857 1,898 2, 018 1, 782 2,062 2, 091 2, 123 1, 863 1, , 918 2, 117 2,214 2, 200 2, 191 2, 235 2? 226 2, 213 2, 238 2, 248 2, 240 el 1 Percent of theoretical capacity Electric power, by utilities (millions of kilowatt-hours) 6, 183 6,038 6, , 598 7,443 7,382 7, 124 7,026 7, 176 7,076 7, 622 7, 599 7, 707 7,841 7, , , 144 8, 150 Bituminous coal i (thousands of short tons) 2 1, 687 1, , , , 383 1,322 1, , , Cars and trucks (number) 154, , , , , , , , ,361 44, , , i Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation; monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates. Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950, 1, beginning July 1, 1950, 1,999,034 beginning January 1,, 2,077,040 beginning January 1, 1952, and 2,254,459 beginning January 1, Daily average for week. a Preliminary estimates. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports

17 In December/ output in most major durable goods industries rose substantially. Among the nondurables, there were divergent movements. Chemicals rose to a post-world War II high, while petroleum and manufactured food products showed no change. Textiles dropped to the lowest level since July, but were above a year ago. RCENT OF AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION} PERCENT OF 1935'39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR-SEASONAL VARIATION) LUMBER AND PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 00 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I ll I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 00 1 I' I I I I I I I II I I I I I 11 I I II I II I I I I II I j I I IJ I III II I I I II I NUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average monthly average.... monthly average 1952 monthly average l : November December 1952: January February March _.. April. May.... July August. September.. October November - December l Iron and steel [ =100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Lumber and products Machinery Nonferrous metals and products Textiles and products Nondurable manufactures Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical product* 1 Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System

18 j. JA.J. V r* J. JLi O^V^lYXJ-iO J. J.V/ J.J.H V JLiO 1 lyjljlil,m 1 investment (seasonally adjusted annual rates) rose almost $3 billion in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Increased expenditures for producers' durable equipment accounted for most of the rise, and there were small increases in construction expenditures. Inventory accumulation was estimated at a $4 billion rate, slightly higher than in the preceding quarter. 70! ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1 7O PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUI I NEW CONSTRUCTION^ o o '* * «.«.«.» V I I I I ANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES I I 1 J I J_ : 3 4i/ [Billions of dollars] gross private domestic investment New construction Residential nonfarm Other Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories _. _ _ 1 952» n. o 11. i Seasonally adjusted annual rates * First quarter Second quarter. _» Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter l Preliminary estimates; by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 15

19 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Outlays for new plant and equipment in the third quarter were below anticipated expenditures in a survey previously reported. In the fourth quarter, expenditures rose to a new record on a seasonally adjusted basis. Business plans call for a further increase in the first quarter of* _ : First quarter Second quarter.. _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter Second quarter.. Third quarter Fourth quarter : First quarter 4 : COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE « [Billions of dollars] Manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining Transportation Railroads Seasonally adjusted annual rates Other Public utilities Commercial and other 2 1 Excludes agriculture.» Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction.»not available. < Estimates for fourth quarter 1952 and first quarter 1953 based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in November NOTE. Revised series; see Survey of Current Business, August These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. 16 ( 3 ) ( 8 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 8 ) ( s ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 )

20 NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction expenditures, seasonally adjusted, rose in January for the fifth consecutive month. A decline in private residential construction was more than offset by increases in other private construction and public construction. 3.5 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION I 3.5 TOTAL CONSTRUCTION -TOTAL PRlVATt.PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL (NONFARM) OTHER PRIVATE -FEDERAL, STATE.. AND LOCAL J 1952 J J 1953 J [Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] 1939 monthly average monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthlv average monthly average 1952 month] v average : December _ : January _.. Februarv March April M 0, a Jv -. Julv August _ September October _ November. December 1953: Januarv.. _. new construction 683 1, ,000 1,806 1, 899 2,396 2, 389 2,574 2, 694 2,573 2, 583 2,723 2,835 2,779 2,701 2,683 2,640 2, 634 2,654 2, 660 2,699 2,738 2,751 private ,404 1,365 1,801 1,808 1,807 1,815 1,734 1,737 1,811 1,920 1,857 1,798 1,773 1,784 1,789 1,794 1,812 1,846 1,864 1,863 Private construction Residential (nonfarm) , 050 1, , Other Federal, State, and local Includes public residential construction. Bourcea: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor 17

21 18 NEW HOUSING STARTS In December, housing starts declined less than seasonally, exceeding 1.2 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Starrs for the year 1952 totaled more than 1.1 million, or 4 percent above. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR New nonfarm units started Month Monthly total 1952 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1 January February March. - - April. - - May July.. _. August September October November December» 53, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 700 ] 03, , , , , , ICO 100, , , OCO 2 76, ] , , 160, ] , 600 1, 025, 100 1, 396, 000 1, 091, , 331, 300 Monthly average 77, , ,300 90, , 275 i Seasonally adjusted annual rate data are shown monthly beginning with 1952, the first month used in determining "periods of residential credit control relaxation" pursuant to the provisions of the Defense Production Act Amendments of 1952 (sec. 607). For method of computing seasonally adjusted annual rates, see special release of August 28, 1952, by the Department of Labor. a Preliminary estimates. Source: Department, of Labor.

22 INVENTORIES AND SALES Business soles, seasonally adjusted/ rose about $1.6 billion in December. increased slightly. Inventories/ also seasonally adjusted/ TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING SEASONALLY ADJUSTED f«/ /\ I / TOTAL INVENTORIES* TOTAL SALES,. ' -* MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES "**** MANUFACTURING SALES I95O * WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM : November December 1952* January. February March April Ma} r July - _ - August. September October November December 6 business * Inventories 2 Sales» 20, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 889 Retail Inventories 2 Sales * Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 5, 534 7,561 11,852 14, , ,311 18, , , ,055 20, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,055 3,503 5,270 8,541 9,967 10, , ,974 12, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,003 14, 322 Manufacturing Inventories 3 2 Sales New orders 8 11,465 20, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 630 5, , , , , ,416 19, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 200 5,354 12, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 300 Department stores Inventories 4 Sales 3 Index =100, seasonally adjusted Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table. * Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total for month. «Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 Revised series beginning with ; not comparable with previous data. See Survey of Current Business, September and November, 1952, for detail. Preliminary estimates. 19

23 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS November imports were 1 2 percent below the October level, reflecting declines in all economic classes of commodities. November exports were about 2 percent below October with only exports of crude materials maintaining the level of the previous month. According to preliminary estimates, December exports rose 16 percent above November. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, J/R 1/R monthly average _ 1946 monthly average monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average monthly average monthly average. _ : November December- _ 1952: January February March April May. July August September October November December 3 merchandise exports , , , 438 1, , , 465 1, 165 1, , 221 1, 196 1, [Millions of dollars] Grant-aid shipments l (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) Merchandise exports excluding grant-aid shipments (2) (2) (2) 1, 164 1,304 1,379 1, 189 1, 260 1,330 1, 186 1, 239 1, , merchandise imports excess of exports ( + ) or imports ( ) Excess of exports ( + ) or imports ( ), excluding grant-aid shipments ' Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military equipment and supplies under the Mutual Defense Assistance and Mutual Security Programs.» Shipments began in July For the year 1950, total grant-aid shipments amounted to 282 million dollars. 8 Preliminary estimate. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 20 SOUECES: Department of Commerce.andjDepartment of Defense.

24 NATIONAL INCOME ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 350 :>: CORPORATE PROFITS AND :-::<:: : INVENTORY VALUATION ' : ADJUSTMENT :-:-:-: : : ' ^ -^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY national income Compensation of employees Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) and rental income Net interest Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Seasonally adjusted annual rates Profits before taxes : First quarter Second quarter ;"»<). I Third quarter :1 a Fourth quarter ) as, r, i f> 31), f> j 1952: First quarter i Second quarter Third quarter J. 2 Fourth quarter J ;!'.»., r > »31). 0 i j 1 rieliwiuary estimates; by Council of Economic Advisers. ~" (') 3 Less than $50 million. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, (except as noted) ). (i 42. «,) 40. S Inventory valuation adjustment ] _ -4. t 8 > ~K (i - I) :i H f 3. 0 H- i' 7 -f. I) 21

25 22 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits are estimated to have increased at the annual rate of $3 billion during ihe fourth quarter, while corporate tax liabilities rose by $1.8 billion. Dividend payments remained at third quarter levels DI vipend. PA VME NTS; 1953 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED}. [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Dividend payments Undistributed profits i Seasonally adjusted annual rates : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter l Fourth quarter! ^ i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE. See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Source: Department of Commerce (exept as noted). Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

26 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income, seasonally adjusted, rose to an annual rate of $279 billion in December, almost $3% billion higher than in the previous month. Most major components participated in the rise SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE s 1950: : December 1952: January February March April May J ~ July August September October November December 3 personal income [Billions of dollars] Proprietors' income 1 Labor income (salaries, wages, and other labor income) Farm Business, professional, and rental income Seasonally adjusted annual rates Dividends and personal interest Transfer payments * Excludes employee contributions for social insurance, and self-employed contributions (which became effective January 1952). 3 Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year. * Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce

27 24 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Both disposable personal income and consumer spending increased sharply in the fourth quarter, leaving the personal saving rate virtually unchanged from the preceding quarter PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE {EXCEPT AS NOTED). COUNCIL Of fconomlc *DVI*l»»r. Disposable personal income l Less: Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Kqimls: Personal net saving Net saving as percent of disposable income Billions of dollars _ _ _ _ : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter. 1952: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Foil rth a uarter i Income less tuxos. * Preliminary estimates; by Council of Economic Advisers Seasonally adjusted annual rates NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

28 1 Income less taxes. 2 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by an over-all implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures. This price index is based on Department of Commerce data, shifted from a 1939 base. * Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including armed forces overseas, taking into account the final 1950 Census total population count. Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures. «Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. 25 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME In the fourth quarter, per capita disposable income in both current and constant prices rose to new peak levels, according to preliminary estimates. 1,600 ANNUAL AVERAGES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES DOLLARS 1,600 1,200 1,200 CURRENT PRICES o t i l l I I I I ! i 2 IS _ 1948 J : First quarter Second quarter.. Third quarter Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 4. disposable personal income (billions of dollars) 1 Current prices prices a Per capita disposable personal income (dollars) 1 Current prices , 062 1, 124 1, 176 1,285 1,255 1,355 1,458 1, prices 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates ,421 1,449 1,468 1,489 1,477 1,478 1, ,055 1,271 1,417 1,517 1,445 1,375 1,423 1,407 1,484 1,486 1, 496 1, 460 1,482 1,498 1,501 1,487 1,478 1,492 1, 525 Population (thousands) 1 131, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

29 FARM INCOME Farm income in December declined less than in the same month a year ago 'FARM INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE = 100. NOTE: FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE monthly average monthly average monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average monthly average. - monthly average......_ 1952 monthly average 3 : November _. December 1952: January.. February ". March April ~..... May July August September October November 3 _ December 3 Farm income (millions of current dollars) i Converted from the reported base, = 100, to tbe?basem951 = 100. * Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index onjbase = 100. ' Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments. Source: Department of Agriculture , 763 2, 111 2, 539 2, 344 2, , , 712 3,012 2, 642 2, 043 2, 122 2, 100 2, 176 2,381 2, 711 2, 882 3,620 4, 123 3, 546 3,072 Parity index (prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates) = Farm income (millions of dollars)» , , , , 003 2, , 113 2, f»58 2, 825 3, 584 1, 12H i Mf> i. 07V!

30 CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans increased $800 million during December. This was accompanied by a decline of $800 million in bank holdings of U. S. Government securities I960 END OF. YEAR END OF MONTH End of period : December 1952: January February March.... April May... July.. August September. October.. November December 2 ] 953 : January.. _ loans and investments i Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans. NOTE. -Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. [Billions of dollars] Bank loans All commercial banks Investments U. S. Government securities Other securities M M. 1 Weekly reporting member banks Business loans J f> r> 21. ft I? ('» , H 20, f. 20 H 2n. r, 20 '.' 2J I.?> :» f. H * Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 27

31 i Includes repair and modernization loan? insured by Federal Bousing Administration. 1 Includes loans by pawnbrokers, serveie credit, and unclassified single-payment, loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks. 8 Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit in December increased sharply by $1.2 billion/ lifting the amount outstanding more than $3 billion or 16 percent above the level of a year ago. The rise during the year was largely in instalment credit. BILLIONS or 2 5 DOLLARS I END OF YEAR END OF MONTH 1952 COUNCIL. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] End of period _ : November December 1952: Januarv February M arch. April Mav July August September. October.. _ November 3 December 3-7,031 8, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,213 21, , , , , 975 instalment credit 4,424 4, , , , ,510 16, , ,510 13,314 13, , , , , , , , , ; , 792 1, 648 6,240 7, 904 6, 995 7, 546 9, 388 7,400 7,546 7,322 7, 158 7,047 7,099 7, 421 7,820 8,039 8, 149 8,339 8,653 8, 917 9, 388 Instalment credit Sale credit consumer credit outstanding Automobile sole credit 1, , 144 4, 126 3,790 4,039 5, 190 4, 100 4,039 3,962 3,927 3,891 3,946 4, 171 4, 446 4,597 4,634 4,708 4,882 5,038 Si 190 Other sale credit 1,525 1, 104 3,096 3,778 3,205 3,507 4, 198 3,300 3,507 3,360 3,231 3, 156 3, 153 3, 250 3,374 3,442 3,515 3,631 3, 771 3,879 4, 198 Loans l 1,632 2,352 4, 650 5, 555 5, 110 5, 964 7, 118 5, 871 5,964 5, 992 6,027 6, 109 6,220 6,385 6, 589 6, 706 6,790 6,854 6,920 6,972 7, 118 Charge accounts 1, 544 3,054 3, 909 4,239 3,392 4,587 4, 768 4, 190 4,587 4,253 3,967 3,855 3,913 3,921 3,980 3,891 3,902 3,848 4, ; 768 Other consumer credit 2 1,063 1,623 2,010 2,399 2, 154 2,547 2,701 2, 528 2, ,565 2,554 2,556 2, 566 2, 572 2,577 2,592 2, 616 2, 641 2, 672 2, 701

32 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES The average yield on*new issues of 3-month Treasury bills declined moderately from the record high of December, while the rate on commercial paper remained at the level of the preceding 8 months. Yields on U. S. Government taxable bonds and corporate bonds rose slightly. PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5 PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5»». ** **"*'***.. U.S. GOVERNMENT J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A W J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D IS NOTE E OH TfiBLE BELOW Average: 1939_ : 1952: 1953: December January - - February J»» Marchi_ April May July August September. October November December. January, i Rate of new issues within period. 215 years and over prior to April 1952; 12 years and over beginning in April. nril [Percent per annum] U. S. Government security yields 3-month Treasury bills ' " Taxable bonds 2 ( 3 ) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months s Bonds in tbis classification were first issued in March Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29

33 MONEY SUPPLY deposits and currency rose $1.2 billion in December to a level more than $10 billion or about 5 percent higher than a year ago. The $1.7 billion decline in U. S. Government deposits during the month was more than offset by a $2.9 billion increase in the privately held money supply TOTAL EXCLUDING U. S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS (PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY} DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED TIME DEPOSITS», / / CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS END OF YEAR I960 END OF MONTH SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM End of period ' _ : December. 1952: January February March April Mav. July- August September _ October.. November December 4 deposits and currency [Billions of dollars] excluding U. S. Government deposits (privately held money supply) Currency Demand outside deposits banks adjusted 3 U.S. Government deposits > Q Time deposits * * Includes U. S. Government deposits at Federal Keserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. 2 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. B. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 8 Includes deposit? in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposit?. * Preliminary estimates. Nof E. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 30 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System

34 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Federal bud$et expenditures declined in January, due to a drop in interest payments from their seasonal high in December and to lower national security spending; however, both were above a year ago. With budget receipts less than expenditures, the cumulative fiscal year deficit rose to $10.0 billion by the end of the month. 75 TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES 50 f'scalyear FlSCAL YEAR 195!! 1 BUDGET SURPLUS ( + ) OR DEFICIT (-) (MAGNIFIED SCALE) * FISCAL YEAR / ^ V ^ 1 1 Fiscfll year 1944 Fiscal year 1947 Fiscal year 1948 Fiscal year 1949 Fiscal year 1950 Fiscal year Fiscal year 1952 *. December _ 1952: January. -. _. February.. March April.. May July August September October November.. December 1953: January for period Budget expenditures Cumulative fiscal year totals FISCAL YEARS-CUMULATIVE TOTALS [Billions of dollars] Major national security programs * for Cumulative fiscal period year totals * Net budget receipts for period Cumulative fiscal year totals Budget surplus (-f-) or deficit ( ) for period I f Cumulative fiscal year totals Public debt (end of period) 3 J Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations, development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. * Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. 4 Preliminary estimates. * Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly figures. O J NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources. Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget

35 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC In the final quarter of 1952, cash payments to the public rose to $19.5 billion, exceeding cash receipts by $4.7 billion, according to preliminary estimates. The cash deficit for the calendar year was $1.6 billion, compared to a surplus of $1.2 billion in EXCESS OF CASH RtCtlFIS H M H H mum - m in MM.,,, EXCESS OF CA^H PAYMENT*, ftj 1 til %: : ' ' 4 Z i CALENDAR YEARS 3 4i/ SOURCE- BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Millions of dollars! Calendar year Federal cash receipts from the publie Federal cash payments to the public Excess of receipts (4-) or payments ( ) Calendar year total: _ _,... I960. _ , Quarterly totals, not adjusted for seasonal variation: 1950: Third quarter Fourth quarter : First quarter.,..... Second quarter «.. Third quarter Fourth quarter._^_..,.. _. 1952: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter *_..... _... 41, , , , ,419 59, , , , ,051 14, ,993 12, , , , , , , , } , , , 000 9,351 10,754 11, , ,270 17,064 16, ,701 17, , f 5, ,027-1, f 1, 244 1, , , , 277-4, , ,567-4,700 > Preliminary estimates. Nom Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, J>. C. Price 20 cents per copy : $2.00 per year; $2.50 foreign.