Economic Indicators JANUARY Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers

Transcription

1 84th Congress, 2d Session ublic Librar? Economic Indicators JANUARY 1956 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers A number of subscribers to Economic Indicators have inquired about the Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives data for years not shown in the monthly issue. This publication was issued in December but has been out of print in recent months. A revised version is now available for 40 cents a copy from: Superintendent of Documents Government Printing Office Washington 25, D. C. UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1956

2 11 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of PubUc Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois, Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) RICHARD ROLLING (Missouri) J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) WILBUR D. MILLS (Arkansas) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY (Wyoming) AUGUSTINE B. KELLEY (Pennsylvania) RALPH E. FLANDERS (Vermont) JESSE P. WOLCOTT (Michigan) ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah) HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa) BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona) THOMAS B. CURTIS (Missouri) GROVER W. ENSLEY, Executive Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk ARTHUR F. BURNS, Chairman RAYMOND J. SAULNIER JOSEPH S. DAVIS [PUBLIC LAW sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

3 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving 1 Gross National Product or Expenditure 2 National Income 3 Sources of Personal Income 4 Disposition of Personal Income 5 Per Capita Disposable Income 6 Farm Income 7 Corporate Profits 8 Gross Private Domestic Investment 9 Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force 11 Nonagricultural Employment 12 Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries 13 Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries 14 Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production. 16 Production of Selected Manufactures 17 Weekly Indicators of Production 18 New Construction Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Sales and Inventories Manufacturing and Trade Merchandise Exports and Imports PRICES Consumer Prices 23 Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers CURRENCY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Currency and Deposits Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Stock Prices 30 FEDERAL FINANCE Budget Receipts and Expenditures 31 Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public

4 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Current estimates of total income and expenditures for the third quarter of 1955 reflect the continued rise in over-all economic activity., SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 300 CONSUMERS 3OO ISO ISO IOO BUSINESS IOO 50 GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS^ IOC GOVERNMENT-FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS AND SERVICES IOO (LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS) FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. ^INCLUDES CORPORATE UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES. -^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. NOTE" THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES.OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT. SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT, PP 92-93, , AND THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY, APPENDIX A. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND. 1955

5 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE According to current estimates, the gross national product rose about $7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) too new nigh of $391.5 billion between the second and third quarters. Consumer expenditures accounted for most of the increase. 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES "GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 100 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 50 j I j I \ NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT I I I I I 1955 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE _.. : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter.- «. Fourth quarter 1955: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter.,_ gross national product a Personal consumption expenditures a [Billions of dollars] Gross private domestic investment a Net foreign investment Government purchases of goods and services Federal State i * National security 3 Other and local Seasonally adjusted annual rates Less Government sales. * Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For further details, see Economic Report of the President, January 1955 (p. 137). and National Income, 195A Edition (p. 148). These expenditures are not comparable with the "national security" category in The Budget of the U. S. Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1956, and shown on p. 31 of Economic Indicators. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce A -! a

6 NATIONAL INCOME According to preliminary estimates, national income rose by $5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between the second and third quarters, largely due to the increase in compensation of employees ^» CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 1955 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] national income Compensation of employees l Proprietors' income Farm Business and professional Rental income of persons Net interest Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1955: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Seasonally adjusted annual rates ! J Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce.

7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between October and November. Most of the increase was accounted for by labor income. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME* LABOR INCOME FARM PROPRIETORS' INCOME TRANSFER PAYMENTS 1955 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE : October- November. _ December 1955: January February March. April May June July. August September.. October November 4 _ personal income Labor income (wage and salary disbursements and other labor income) I BilHon«of dollar*! Proprietors' income Rental Business income Farm and professional of persons Dividends Personal interest income Seasonally adjusted annual rates i Compensation of employees (see p. 3) excluding employer contributions for social insurance. a Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Transfer payments * Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonagricultural personal income * Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Commerce.

8 708,13 56 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to current estimates, disposable personal income rose about $4^ billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between the second and third quarters. Consumption expenditures increased $5K billion, while personal saving declined I 00 I SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE _ 1949,.. * First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1955* First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Personal income Less: Personal taxes l Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Billions of dollars Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates i Includes such items as fines, penalties, and donations. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding ) , Source: Department of Commerce. Equals: Personal saving Saving as percent of disposable income

9 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income (seasonally adjusted), measured in both current and constant prices, rose about 1 percent between the second and third quarters. In constant prices, it exceeded the level of the corresponding quarter by more than 5 percent. DOLLARS 2,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES DOLLARS 2,000 PRICES-* 7 *- 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 I960 -^SEE FOOTNOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AND _- - -._ : First quarter Second quarter - _ Third quarter Fourth quarter : First quarter _ Second quarter Third Quarter disposable personal income (billions of dollars) 1 Current prices prices Per capita disposable personal income (dollars) 1 Current prices 538 1, 126 1, 173 1,279 1,261 1,359 1, 465 1,508 1,568 1,569 Seasonally adjusted annual rates prices a 1,041 1,551 1, 410 1,429 1,422 1,518 1,515 1,525 1,573 1,569 1,565 1, 565 1,561 1,581 1,595 1,627 1, 642 Population (thousands) * 131, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Income less taxes. 2 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base =100. a Includes armed forces overseas. Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, and Council of Economic Advisers.

10 FARM INCOME Gross and net farm income (seasonally adjusted) declined between the second and third quarters. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES NET FARM INCOME (INCi_. ADJUSTMENT FOR INVENTORY CHANGE ) -I/ 4-J I/ INCOME OF FARM OPERATORS FROM FARMING SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUr-JCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS : First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1955: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Realized gross farm income l , Farm production expenses Billions of dollars Farm operators' income Net income 2 Excluding Including adjustment adjustment for inventory change 3 tory change for inven Seasonally adjusted annual rates Net income per farm (including adjustment for inventory change) Current prices Dollars 697 2,518 2,632 3, 049 2,248 2, 428 2, 919 2, 778 2,445 2,413 2, 627 2, 333 2, 353 2,333 2, 360 2,240 2,060 prices 6 1,591 3,417 3,043 3, 329 2,534 2,704 2, 985 2, 809 2,482 2, 413 2, 656 2,324 2,337 2,349 2,377 2,240 2,068 Number of farms (millions) 0 1 Includes cash receipts from farm marketings, value of farm products consumed directly in farm households, gross rental value of farm dwellings, and Government payments to farmers. 2 Excludes (a) farm wages paid to workers living on farms and (6) any income to farm people from nonfarm sources. These items in were as follows: (a) 2.0 billion dollars and (6) 5.7 billion dollars. s Realized gross income less farm production expenses. 4 Differs from farm proprietors' income on pages 3 and 4 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture not yet incorporated into the national income accounts of the Department of Commerce. 8 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by index of prices paid by farmers for items used in family living, on base =100. o For the quarterly data, the number of farms is held constant within a given year. ' Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Department of Agriculture (except as noted)

11 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits, before and after taxes, increased between the second and third quarters, according to current estimates. I960 ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) [Billions of dollars] ; First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1955 : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Dividend payments ,0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Undistributed profits NOTE. See p. 3 for profits before taxes and after inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce.

12 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment (seasonally adjusted) increased slightly between the second and third quarters of Expenditures on fixed investment increased by $2 billion (annual rate), while additions to business inventories were smaller by about $2 billion I960 I955 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Billions of dollars] Fixed investment New construction gross private domestic investment Residential nonfarm Commercial and industrial * All other 2 Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories Nonfarm _ _ Seasonally adjusted annual rates : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1955: First quarter- _ - Second quarter Third quarter f>j ('»().?> '.) S ] G i Includes public utility. Includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling. NOTE. Details will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce.

13 10 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to a survey taken in October and November, business expenditures on plant and equipment are expected to total $28.3 billion in 1955, about $1! /2 billion more than in. Expenditures are expected to reach $30.9 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES MANUFACTURING^ COMMERCIAL AND OTHER PUBLIC UTILITIES. JIIL.llle.bit - ojl I960 I95I J I TRANSPORTATIOI I I J I J SEE NOTE 3 ON TABLE BELOW. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE _ : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 3 11)56: First quarter 3 _ i [Billions of dollars] Manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining Transportation Railroads Seasonally adjusted annual rates Other Public utilities a Commercial and other J Kxcludos agriculture. Cmmnereial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures, which include adjustmon *, when necessary, for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. N'OTK. Thew figures do not agree with the totals included In the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the hi tic r «x>vi*r u^ru'iihnml inve.st.mont and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense, mil will not ni'twutaruy Hfld to totals because of rounding. ifi^s: HiTurithtf and KxoimnKo Commission and Department of Commerce

14 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In line with seasonal expectations, employment (inclusive of agriculture) declined between November and December/ unemployment remained about the same. Employment in December was about 3Vz million higher than a year earlier and unemployment about 400,000 less, as the labor force increased by about 3 million. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 75 MILLIONS OF PERSONS YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE _ - _ : December 1955*. January February March April May June _ July August - September October November December labor force (including armed forces) 55, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 538 Civilian labor force Employment l Agricultural Nonagricultural Temporary layoffs * Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over 5 55, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Includes part-time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacations, illness, bad weather, temporary layoff, and industrial disputes; excludes armed forces. 2 Shown separately so as to afford a basis for further analysis of employment and unemployment. 45, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 165 9, 610 8,026 7,507 7, 054 6,805 6, 562 6,504 5,325 5,297 5,084 5, 692 6, 215 6,963 7,681 7,704 7,536 7,875 7,905 6,920 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a See footnote 2. < Weekly average. «Data for ( revised series) based on 68- area sample; beginning, on 230-area sample. Starting July 1955, data are for week ending nearest Unemployment 3 Number 9,480 3,395 3, 142 1, 879 1,673 1, 602 3,230 2,838 3,347 3,383 3,176 2,962 2,489 2,679 2,471 2,237 2, 149 2,131 2,398 2,427 %of civilian labor force Insured unemployment 4 Thousands of persons (all programs) 2,470 1, ,064 1,058 2,039 1,869 2,201 2, 109 1,875 1,651 1,392 1,226 1,202 1, , 237 % of covered employment (State programs) th of month; previously, for week containing 8th of month. * Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce (labor fon-o and Department of Labor (insured unemployment)) 11

15 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Employment in nonagricultural establishments rose by over /2 million, but somewhat less than seasonally between November and December. Employment in durable goods manufacturing remained about the same, as expected at this time of year/ in nondurable goods, the decline was greater than seasonal. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE I I I I f nl I I I 1 I I I 1 I 1 I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR : November- December. 1955: January February March April May June July August September. October... November 2 _ December 2. adjusted for seasonal variation 48, , , , , , , , , , 7J,2 49, S/)7.',<), <M2 50, 1S1 r>o,(mi 30,311 44, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 47 J 50, (MO r>i, ir><) [Thousands of wage and salary workers l ] 10, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 9i)9 17, , 984 Manufacturing Durable goods 4,683 8,312 7,473 8,085 9,340 10, 105 9, 120 9, 121 9, 144 9, 113 9, 220 9, 323 9,418 9,501 9,624 9,511 9,578 9,645 9, 762 9, 8 (.)5 9, 883 Nondurable goods Mining Not adjusted for seasonal variation 5, 394 7,010 6,705 6, 882 6,994 7, 133 6,870 6,936 6,906 6, 812 6, 840 6,878 6,837 6,833 6,953 6,964 7,229 7,270 7,237 7, 180 7, , 150 2, 169 2, 165 2,333 2,634 2,622 2,527 2, 598 2,426 2,237 2, 169 2,255 2,399 2,526 2,615 2,701 2,746 2,748 2,685 2, 569 2, 396 Wholesale and retail trade 6,612 9,519 9,513 9,645 10, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,674 Contract construction Government (Federal, State, local) 3,995 5,650 5,856 6,026 6,609 6, 645 6,751 6,917 7,166 6,835 6, 873 6,922 6,927 6,881 6, 851 6,696 6,717 6, 911 7,054 7,074 7, 343 Other 7,632 10, , , ,563 11,797 11,751 11, ,720 11,584 11, ,687 11,774 11, , , , , , , , 019 J Includes all full- and part-time wane and salary workers in nonapricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period anding nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonapricnltural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 11) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Preliminary estimates. 1 O NOTE. Beginning with, data are based on first quarter benchmark levels. ^^ Source: Department of Labor.

16 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek of factory production workers rose to 41.4 hours in December, the highest level since December. The increase was largely concentrated in nondurable goods manufacturing. HOUR PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING HOURS PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING I952 I953 I952 RETAIL TRADE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.. [Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees] 1939,. _ : November... - December : January February- March _ April. May- AJ.WJ'- - - June July _. August.. September October November 2 _ December Manufacturing5 Durable goods Nondurable goods Building construction * ( 3 ) Retail trade (i (3) i Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods. * Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Beginning with, data are based on first quarter benchmark levels of employment. Source: Department of Labor Not available. 13

17 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing were $1.93 in December, the same as in November and 10 cents higher than a year earlier..lars PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1955 EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE *100 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR _._ : November December _ 1955: January February March April _ Mav «June July. August September ( H'tobor _, 1 )wt*n».btt :! _ November U [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] All manufacturing Current prices $ ]. 93 prices l $ ( 4 ) Durable goods manufacturing Current prices $ L prices 1 $ ( 4 ) Nondurable goods manufacturing Current prices $ prices * $ ( 4 ) 1 KurnliiR.s In current prices divided by consumer price index on base = Ditta beginning with January 1918 arc not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods. NotK. - -HrjrinninE with, duta aro based on first quarter 19M benchmark levels of employment. Boure*: Ih'imrlmrnt of l/nbor, Building construction Current prices $ ( 4 ) prices * $ ( 4 ) Retail trade Current prices $ ( 4 ) 5 Preliminary estimates. * Not available. prices * $ ( 4 )

18 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings of factory production workers rose from $79.52 in November to a new high of $79.90 in December, reflecting the increase in the average workweek. The December figure was $5? 78 higher than a year earlier. DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER.WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING PRICES J/ _!/ EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE *100. SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF LABOR _... : November _> December- 1955: January February. March April May_ June July August- September. October. November 3 December 3 [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] All manufacturing Current prices $ prices * $ ( 4 ) Durable goods manufacturing Current prices $ prices l $ ( 4 ) Nondurable goods manufacturing Current prices $ Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base Data beginning with January 1&48 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods. NOTE.- Beginning with, data are based on first quarter benchmark levels of employment. Source: Dojwrtrnont of Labor. prices l $ ( 4 ) Building construction Current prices $ ( 4 ) prices 1 $ ( 4 )»Preliminary estimates. < Not available. Retail trade Current prices $ ( 4 ) prices l $ ( 4 ) 15

19 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In November, the index of industrial production, seasonally adjusted, increased one point to a new peak of 144 ( =100). INDEX, =100 INJDEX, = ^ 1955 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. T) j Fenod l October. - November. December 1955 %1 January February. - March. April. «- - May -« _ June - _ July August September October November [ =100, seasonally adjusted] industrial production Manufactures Durable Nondurable Minerals 1 Preliminary estimates. Source : Board of Governor! of the Federal Reserve System

20 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES In November, production of most manufacturing industries equaled or was slightly above the October levels. INDEX, = 100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 220 JNDEX, »IOO, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 180 ^MACHINERY xfabricated METAL PRODUCTS \ CHEMICAL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PAPER AND PRINTING X / " -..*. "" M--' FOODS, BEVERAGES, AND TOBACCO 60 TEXT ILES AND APPAREL ' 1955 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. 80 i i i I i t t ij 1955 [ =100, seasonally adjusted] Primary metals Durable manufactures Fabricated metal products Machinery Transportation equipment Lumber and products Textiles and apparel Nondurable manufactures Paper Chemical and and petroleum printing products Foods, beverages, and tobacco Consumer durable goods _ * - _ J : 1 October November December January February March Aoril May June July August September October- November M Ml i 'Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systc.i 17

21 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION According to weekly indicators, production of steel in December continued close to the peak levels of November. Electric power reached a new all-time high. Car assemblies declined during the latter part of the month to a considerable degree as a result of the holidays. MILLIONS OF TONS 3 STEEL MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) BITUMINOUS COAL V x^- ^ I I I SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Weekly average:._. VV« December January February March April May June July August September October November December 3 <*mlf*d: 1U5/V: Dwwnber 3 HK. 17,. 2-1 Steel produced Thousands of net tons 1,857 2,018 1,782 2, 141 1,694 1,875 1,995 2, 124 2,253 2,288 2,331 2,272 2,059 2, 166 2,309 2,370 2, 389 2,368 2, 356 2,416 2,421 2, 338 2, 309 2, 403 2, 388 Percent of theoretical capacity * Electric power distributed (millions of kilowatt-hours) 6, 183 6,958 7,451 8, 244 8,883 9,645 9,936 9,902 9,796 9,658 9,741 9,986 10, , , , , ,348 11, ,426 11, , , 751 Bituminous coal mined (thousands of short tons) 2 1,687 1,772 1,548 1,521 1,304 1,502 1,463 1,481 1,373 1,363 1,515 1,607 1,565 1,593 1,630 1,602 1,749 1,768 1,730 1,803 1,763 1,846 1,820 Freight loaded (thousands of cars) Paperboard produced (thousand? of tons) Cars and trucks assembled (thousands) Cars Trucks» i «.»., n< «,?,M,«i,-uy IM---«! on woi-kly not ton capacity of 1,906,268 for the first half of ; 1,928,721 beginning July 1,; 1,999,034 beginning January 1,; i i»4>.», f ittiihif J..M.iur\ i, i'i.v_» ; i»,-.>m,4m'» beginning January 1,; 2,384,549 beginning January 1,; and 2,413,278 beginning January 1,1955. * \i+n-, *«*.,. ;,. f.,i M.-H. 2 Preliminary estimates. t:..»,» A, M», f \<*ii if nit nn«t {-'tor. i Inntltuta, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, National Paperboard t*»t*i '\ «M!'«Autiitti<ttlvt> lit*p(ir(o. Digitized for if FRASER

22 NEW CONSTRUCTION new construction (seasonally adjusted) continued to decline slightly in December percent above, with private outlays accounting for practically the entire gain. The total for 1955 was BILL.IONS OF DOLLARS 50 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES BILLIONS OF DOLLA RS TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION. >i ^-^ ^- ^-*~*~^~~ ~^^»~~~ PRIVATE>^ _^ ' ~^~^ -*-^*~*^r *~~ ' '*.- PUBLIC *'* I ! I I 1 I! 1 I I i i i i i i i i i i l 1 1! I i i i i i i 1 i i i I 1 I i PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL (NONFARM) \ ^.~ / ^*-«:.t:.^.r:.i.^~*r.: ^m~ -. OTHER PRIVATE 1.0 O ' 1 1 1! J 1 ] 1 i 1 I 1 1! ) 1 1 i! I I I 1 I ! 1 1 I I SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR : November December. 1955: January February March April -_ May j _. June - July.. August - September _ October November December 2 new construction [Billions of dollars] private Private Residential (nonfarm) Other Seasonally adjusted annual rates i Compiled by F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonally adjusted by the National Bureau of Economic Kesearch. Omits small contracts, and covers rural areas less fully than urban. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, and F. W. Dodge Corporation (except as noted). Federal, State, and local Construction contracts awarded in 37 Eastern States * Annual rates Unadjusted * Preliminary estimates. Seasonally adjusted

23 HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING The number of private nonfarm housing starts in November was at an annual rate of 1.2 million (seasonally adjusted). There was a slight decline from the preceding month. MILLIONS OF UNITS MILLIONS OF UNITS PRIVATE STARTS \ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED if SEE FOOTNOTE I ON TABLE BELOW. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION ( F H A), AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VA). Annual total: _ Monthly average: 195CL _ - - November, December 1955" Januarv February March April May June July August- September October November , , , , , , ] Publicly financed ". 8 {Thousands of units] New nonfarm housing starts , , , , , G Privately financed Government underwritten FHA VA ( ) Private, seasonally adjusted annual rates 1,393 1,478 1,416 1,370 1,367 1,350 1,362 1, 371 1,283 1, , , 242 1,203» Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction. a Not available. 3 Partly estimated. Digitized for OA FRASER Sources: Department of Labor. Federal lloiisine Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA) Proposed home construction Applications for FHA commitments l Requests for VA appraisals 4 Preliminary estimates ,

24 SALES AND INVENTORIES - MANUFACTURING AND TRADE Sales of manufacturers and wholesalers (seasonally adjusted) increased in November, while retail sales were unchanged. According to preliminary estimates, retail sales increased in December. Manufacturers' new orders rose in November and continued to exceed sales. Inventories of manufacturers and distributors increased., SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING, SEASONALLY'ADJUSTED INVENTORIES ^ SALES MM) INDEX, , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES SALES 1955 ' * WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING,AND RETAIL. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM _ _..... _ : October November-. December 1955: January February _ March April Mav *»J.C*J _ M anuf acturing and trade Sales l Inventories a Sales * Manufacturing Inventories a New orders l Wholesale Sales» Inventories 3 Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted / June. July. August September October _ November 6 Decembei 5 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. a Book value, end of period. * Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages Sales * U : Retail Inventories Department stores Sales * Inventories 3 Index = 100, seasonally adjusted Revised series on retail trade beginning with ; not comparable with previous data. See Survey of Current Business, September and November 1052, for detail 1 Preliminary estimates. 6 Not plotted. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 21

25 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS For the first 11 months of 1955, commercial exports were 11 percent higher and imports 1 2 percent higher than in the corresponding period of. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,800 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,800 1,600 1,600 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS EXCLUDING GRANT-AID, bhifmlnib-^a SHIPMENTS^* /! * I/» " i \ i: y /'-'. \ / A I n ' '' \ /I» \ i ^ /» % i» ^ \ \'i \ ^ \/ \f *»»A * V / V^X V A A V \ A V V\y\ / V \ / v ^J * '- v / 800 J I960 l/see FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW monthly average monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average _ monthly average- monthly average-. - monthly average monthly average _ - monthly average _ : October November _ December 1955: January February March _ April Mav «.j June July August September October November ,278 1,054 1, ,253 1,267 1,314 1,258 1,265 1,250 1,318 1,168 1,237 1,343 1, 261 1,325 1,318 1,268 1, 234 1, 253 1,395 1, 302 {Millions of dollars] Merchandise exports Grant-aid shipments yc Excluding grant-aid shipments 757 1, , 164 1, 100 1,022 1,070 1, 162 1, 165 1,221 1,083 1, 143 1, 251 1,167 1,190 1,190 1, 140 1, 106 1, 154 1, 275 1, 230 Merchandise imports , ,010 1,053 Excess of exports over imports Excluding grant-aid shipments 1 Beginning with, figures include only Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security Program. Shipments for the first 6 months of the program (July-December ) amounted to 282 million dollars. 3 Not available. 3 Preliminary estimates. NOTE Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense

26 CONSUMER PRICES PRICES The average of consumer prices of goods and services rose fractionally in November. INDEX, INDEX, » _ _ _ * October November December - ~- 1955* January February March April Mav ivj.a.y June - July - August September October November All items Food [ =100] Housing Rent Apparel Transportation Medical care Personal care Reading and recreation Other goods and services (i 120. r> 120. (i i Includes, In addition to rent, homeowner costs, utilities, bousefurnishings, etc. a Not available. Source: Department of Labor, 23

27 WHOLESALE PRICES The average of wholesale prices was virtually unchanged in December, while those of farm products and processed foods declined. Prices of industrial products rose slightly, INDEX, = 100 INDEX, iOO SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR _..._ -- - _ : November December. - - _- 1955: January... February March April _... May June. _ July August.. _ September. October November... December.. Weekended: : January 3 i Weekly series based on a smaller sample than the monthly series. 24 Source: Department of Labor. [ =100] All commodities Farm products Processed foods Other than farm products and foods (industrial)

28 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers declined 2 points in the month ended December 15. unchanged. The parity ratio dropped 1 point. The prices paid by farmers remained INDEX, I9IO-I4 = IOO 325 INDEX, * ^ PARITY INDEX (PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 I \ I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 100 ^y\ I960 ***^ ^^~*^ ^ PARITY RATIO ^ ^*-»-«-.-*-*-*^r "^»^'»- -»-*- F *~**^^**s»_»-*^_ i i i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 1 i i i i i i/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE _ _... _ : November 15 December 15 _. _ " January February 15 March 15 - _ April 15 May 15. June July 15 - August September 15 - October 15 November 15 December Prices paid by farmers for items used in Family living Parity index (prices paid, interest, Production wage rates) taxes, and Index, =100 i Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index.»includes wartime subsidies paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June Source: Department of Agriculture Prices received by farmers 95 a Parity ratio

29 CURRENCY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS Demand deposits and currency rose more than seasonally in November. At the end of the month, total deposits (excluding Government) and currency were 3 percent higher than a year earlier. END OF MONTH TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY TOTAL EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED TIME DEPOSITS CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS I ( ( I I I [ I I I SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. End of period : October November. December : January February - March April May. June July 6 August 5 September 5 October 5 November 5 deposits and currency [Billions of dollars] U. S. Government deposits l excluding TJ. S. Government deposits (privately held money supply) 2 Currency Demand outside deposits banks adjusted * fi Time deposits 4 i Includes U. S. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. 8. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. ' Includes deposits and currency held by State and local governments.»includes demand deposits, other than interbank and TJ. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. * Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits. Preliminary estimates. Digitized for 26 FRASER NOTK. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System

30 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES In November; loans of commercial banks increased $2.2 billion, and their holdings of U. S, Government securities declined $1.5 billion. The expansion of loans continued in December. "Free 11 reserves (excess reserves less borrowings at the Federal Reserve banks) improved during December. ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT IN U.S. GCiVERNMENT SECURITIES BANK LOANS*, 40 <> ^INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES _L_L END OF MONTH i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i 1955 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM itouncil OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. End of period 1949 _ -.. : October November. December : January February March- April._ May - -. June--- July 4 August 4 September 4 October 4 November 4 - December 4 loans and investments [Billions of dollars] All commercial banks Loans Investments U. S. Government securities Other securities Weekly reporting member banks * 2 Business loans a All member banks * J Reserve balances Required Excess Borrowings at Federal Reserve Banks 11 1 Member banks include, besides all national banks, those State banks that have taken membership in the Federal Eeserve System. 2 Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans; revised series beginning January and again October Such loans by weekly reporting member I represent approximately 70 percent of business loans by all commercial banks. i Data are averages of daily figures on balances and borrowings during the period. * Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System )

31 CONSUMER CREDIT At the end of November, total consumer credit outstanding was $35.1 billion $420 million higher than a month earlier. The increase in automobile credit outstanding was the smallest for any month since January of this year SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. End of period _ : October - November. December. 1955: January February. March April May June July August September- October November- 7, 222 8,384 11, ,411 17, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 059 4,503 4, 172 6,695 8,968 11,516 14, , ,684 22, , , , , , , , , , ,914 25, , , , , 247 [Millions of dollars] Instalment credit outstanding consumer credit outstanding Automobile paper * 1, ,924 3, 054 4,699 6, 342 b,242 8,099 10, , , , , , , , 053 ll s , , , , , , , 172 Other consumer goods paper l 1,620 1,290 2,143 2, 842 3,486 4,337 4,270 5,328 5,831 5,668 5, 324 5,398 5,668 5,609 5,484 5,479 5,492 5, 555 5,639 5, 676 5, 762 5, 848 5,917 6, 057 Repair and modernization loans ,006 1,090 1,406 1, 649 1, 616 1, 637 1, 631 1, 616 1,574 1, 550 1,530 1,534 1,546 1,562 1,570 1,589 1, 611 1,627 1, 634 Personal loans 1,088 1,496 1,910 2,229 2,444 2,805 3,235 3,851 4,366 4,787 4,651 4,689 4,787 4,794 4,833 4,912 5,005 5,063 5, 152 5, 192 5,257 5,311 5,324 5, 384 N oninstalment credit outstanding 2,719 4,212 4,875 5,443 5, 588 6,323 6, 631 7, 143 7, 350 7,658 7,023 7, 195 7,658 7,324 7,010 6,974 7, 142 7,419 7,557 7, 420 7,481 7,594 7,677 7,812 Charge accounts 1,414 2, 076 2,353 2,713 2, 680 3, 006 3,096 3,342 3,411 3, 518 2,892 3,042 3,518 3,225 2,831 2,735 2, 859 3,011 3,040 2, 991 3,019 3,108 3,218 3, 285 Instalment credit extended 3 6,872 8, , , , , , , , , 304 2,454 2,554 3,046 2,389 2,416 3,159 3,089 3, 206 3,443 3, 131 3,436 3,241 3, 051 3, Includes all consumer credit < xtended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased. ' Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are Included in "other consumer goods paper." Digitized for 28 FRASER ' Credit extended or repaid during the period. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systam. Instalment credit repaid 3 6,060 ti, , , ,454 18, , , , 024 2,437 2, 492 2, 593 2,420 2,344 2,693 2,550 2, 570 2, 678 2, 569 2,757 2,697 2,787 2,819

32 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Short-term interest rates and yields on corporate and municipal bonds increased during December, bonds changed very little. Yields on Federal PERCENT PER ANNUM 4 PERCENT PER ANNUM 4 I REVISED SERIES: BONDS DUE OR CALLABLE 10 TO 20 YEARS. SEE TABLE BELOW. SOURCES: SEE TABLE BELOW _ : February March April May June July August - September October _ November December- _... Week ended: 1955: December : January 7 [Percent per annum] U. S. Government security yields 3-month Treasury bills Taxable bonds " Rate on new issues within period. 2 First issued in The single series on these bonds (which continued through March ) included: October 1941-March, bonds due or callable after 15 years; April -March, bonds due or callable after 12 years. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) Corporate bonds ( Moody *s) Aaa Baa Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months * Bonds due or callable from 10 to 20 years. 8 Bonds due or callable 20 years and after. Sources: Treasury Department and Board of Governors of the Federal System (except as noted)

33 STOCK PRICES Stock prices moved within a narrow range during December. INDEX, 1939 = INDEX, 1939 = I960 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Weekly average: _ January February March April May _.. June July August September October November December Week ended : 1955: December : January 6 2 Composite index « [1939=100] M anuf acturing Durable goods Nondurable goods a Transportation Utilities , Trade, finance, and service Mining Includes 265 common stocks: 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 29 for utilities, 31 for trade, finance, and service, and 14 for mining. Indexes are for weekly closing prices. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 30 * Not charted.

34 FEDERAL FINANCE BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES The cumulative budget deficit for the first 5 months of the fiscal year was $6.7 billion, due primarily to seasonally low tax collections. For the same period last year, the budget deficit amounted to $7.1 billion. NET BUDGET EXPENDITURES FIRSTS MONTHS NET BUDGET RECEIPTS FIRST 5 MONTHS 25 MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY EXPENDITURES BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (- (MAGNIFIED SCALE) ^ESTIMATED ' 1955 SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET FISCAL YEARS Fiscal year 1944 Fiscal year 1947 _. _ Fiscal year Fiscal year Fiscal year Fiscal vear Fiscal year -- - Fiscal year Fiscal vear _«_ -- Fiscal year 1955 Fiscal year 1956 (estimated) -. : November December 1955* January February March - - April - May - June _ July 3. _ August 3 - September 3 October 3 November 3» Cumulative totals for first 5 months: Fiscal year 1955 Fiscal year [Billions of dollars] Net budget receipts Net budget expenditures Major national security Budget surplus (-f) or deficit ( ) Public debt (end of period) a 1 Revised to include the items classified as "national security" in The Budget of Thr United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30,1956 These expenditure items are- Military functions of Defense Department, mutual military program, development and control of atomic energy, allocation of critical and strategic materials, and defense production expansion. a Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation. 8 Preliminary. NOTE. Beginning with February, the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures is on a basis consistent with that used in preparing budget estimates The figures shown above for fiscal years and are those published by the Treasury Department on the new basis. o -i Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget