Q1.16 Financial Results. May 26, 2016

Transcription

1 Q1.16 Financial Results May 26, 2016

2 Important Notice Forward Looking Information No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from the Group s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group s view only as of the date hereof. 1 Legal

3 Table of Contents 1 Financial Highlights 2 Liquidity 3 Profitability 4 Asset quality 5 Capital 6 Macro 7 Appendix

4 Financial Highlights 1

5 Domestic PAT breaks even; Group PAT ex Turkey at 26m P&L Highlights Group P&L Group core PPI at 231m (+21% qoq), driven by domestic core PPI, up by 23% qoq at 189m, on the back of core income pick up and lower costs Q1.16 domestic PBT positive for the first time since Q1.13 reflecting the sharp decline in provisions (-79% qoq) Domestic core income up by 4% qoq, driven by sustained time deposit repricing (-31bps qoq), and further ELA reduction (- 3.2bn qoq on average balance basis); as well as lower fee expenses resulting from a sharp reduction in Pillar exposure Personnel expenses in Greece, down by 4% yoy, Group PAT from continued operations at 26m reflects domestic CoR normalization and core income improvement, as well as reduced risk charges in the international business m 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 1Q16/ 4Q15 NII % Fees & Commissions % Pillar-2 costs (30) (54) (53) (48) (43) 44% Insurance income % Trading & other income (6) 108 (178) 80 (111) n/m Income % Operating Expenses (309) (333) (325) (325) (316) -7% Core PPI % PPI % Provisions (158) (739) (256) (2 329) (352) -79% Operating Profit 67 (441) (253) (2 050) (221) n/m Other impairments (34) (247) (51) (134) (37) -86% PBT 33 (688) (304) (2,185) (257) n/m Taxes (7) (62) (5) n/m PAT (cont. ops) 26 (750) 214 (1 645) (263) n/m PAT (discount. ops) 71 (1 160) (595) n/m Minorities (10) (2) (12) (5) (10) >100% Other one-offs - (138) (9) - - n/m Attributable PAT 87 (2 050) (401) (1 616) (159) n/m 1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs 4 Highlights

6 Improving liquidity profile, encouraging formation trends, strong capital position Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios Nominal Pillar exposure is reduced drastically to 3bn in May vs 18b in Q3.15 Elimination of Pillar 3 and reduction of Pillar 2 exposures, implies an annualized fee saving of more than 160m. Pillar 2 elimination to save an additional 40m of annualized fees. Finansbank sale and its sub debt repayment to boost liquidity by 3.5bn in June Best-in-class L:D ratio at 91% in Greece (92% at Group level), provides NBG with a unique funding advantage ahead of the Greek economic recovery Domestic deposit stock at levels slightly above Q2.15 Sustained low formation allows domestic CoR to normalize Q1 domestic retail formation remained negative (- 136m), reflecting recoveries in mortgage and consumer loans; SB segment recorded near zero formation Excluding limited large corporate accounts already classified as NPEs, underlying formation in this segment was negative; mid-size corporate formation stood at just 10m Reflecting corporate formation and the impact of deleveraging (+30bps), domestic 90dpd ratio settled at 34.7% (+60bps qoq) Q1.16 provisioning run rate dropped to 164bps, relative to an AQR adjusted run rate of 329bps in Q dpd coverage remained unchanged at a sector high of 77% CET 1 pro-forma 1 ratio at 17.2% CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.7% 1, including CoCos, CET 1 at 21.9% 1 Group RWAs at 40.4b 1 of which 34.6b in Greece Capital to be further enhanced by implementation of the restructuring plan 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 Liquidity L/D ratio 92% 91% 96% 99% 96% ELA exposure ( bn) Pillar exposure (nominal) Profitability NIM (bps) Cost / Core income 57% 64% 64% 62% 57% Asset quality 90dpd ratio 33.6% 33.1% 33.0% 31.5% 31.4% 90dpd coverage ratio 74.5% 74.6% 71.3% 72.3% 59.7% Cost of Risk (bps) Capital CET1 phased-in 17.2% % 1 9.6% 9.5% 12.1% CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 16.7% % 1 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% RWAs ( b) Pro-forma for Finansbank, Astir Palace and NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment 5 Highlights

7 Liquidity 2

8 Deposits slightly above Q2.15 levels; loanbook keeps contracting Deposit evolution by geography ( bn) Gross loans evolution by geography ( bn) Group ex-tur YoY Group % ex-tur YoY -4.1% SEE & Other % SEE & other % % -2.0% -0.5% -0.9% -3.7% -9.1% % % -2.5% -8.5% Greece Greece 7 Liquidity

9 L:D at 91% provides NBG with a unique liquidity advantage L:D ratio evolution Greek deposit flows per quarter ( bn) % 101% 96% 99% 104% 96% 97% 96% -0.9 Seasonally lowest quarter of the year 95% 98% 94% 91% 90% 92% 91% SEE & Other Group (excl. TUR) Greece bn bn 4Q14 8 Liquidity

10 Pillar exposure reduced to 3bn from 18bn in Q3.15 (nominal terms) Eurosystem funding ( bn) Expected capital actions liquidity impact of 4.0bn Eurosystem collateral cash values ( bn) May ELA ECB ECB: 9.7bn Other EFSF / ESM 8.8 ELA Pillar-2 Cov. bonds Greek Sov. Credit claims Securitizations L:D ratio GRE ELA / Assets 2 ELA exposure ( bn) 4Q14 17-May Peer group analysis 3 : liquidity position as at 31Mar16 91% 131% 146% 150% 16% 23% 30% 29% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Other ELA collateral (cash value) Pillar-2 & 3 bonds (cash value) Cash value of eligible collateral: 27.2bn ELA Sep-15 ELA Dec-15 ELA Mar-16 ELA 17 May Undrawn liquidity ( bn) No Pillar Pro-forma for Finansbank, Astir Palace, NBGI sales and CoCos repayment 2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds and Finansbank 3. Peer comparison is based on results released until May 26, Liquidity

11 Profitability 3

12 Domestic Core PPI up +23% qoq, reflects core income recovery and lower costs Group Core PPI decomposition by region ( m) Domestic Core PPI bridge qoq % SEE & 42 Other % m from insurance subsidiary qoq +23% Greece % Q15 ΔNII Δfees & Insurance Δ Pillar II costs ΔOpEx 1Q16 11 Profitability

13 Domestic NII picks up on the back of improving funding costs Greece Domestic NII breakdown NII ( m) NIM (bps) Retail loans Corporate Deposits Bonds Eurosystem & wholesale Subs & other Total SEE & Other Domestic NII quarterly evolution ( m) Q16 funding cost saving of 23m excl. Pillar-2 fee saving of 24m NII ( m) NIM (bps) 4Q15 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem & wholesale ΔSecurities Subs & other 1Q16 12 Profitability

14 Time deposit repricing continues, -31bps qoq; new production yield at 88bps Greek deposit yields (bps) Greek deposits evolution ( bn) % 57% 64% 68% 68% Core deposits/total % qoq 132 Time New production yield at 88 bps Time 62 Total Sight & other Core Savings Mkt share 34% 13 Profitability

15 Lending yields remain resilient as rates move deeper into negative territory Greek lending yields (bps) Greek loan evolution ( bn) Consumer Total lending yield (bps) Net loans SBLs % qoq Corporate SBL Corporate Consumer Mortgages Mortgages 14 Profitability

16 Fee line recovers, reflecting part of the benefit from the sharp drop in Pillar costs Group fees & insurance income ( m) Domestic fees 1 & insurance decomposition ( m) 0.47% 0.52% 0.42% 0.50% 0.44% Fees 1 /Assets Total qoq Total SEE & Other Insurance % -2% Insurance Fund management Banking fees Corporate lending Greece Retail lending Custody, brokerage inv. Banking Pillar 2 cost 1. Excl. Pillar-2 bond fee charges 15 Profitability

17 Domestic costs are down by 4% yoy, supporting C:I recovery Group OpEx by category ( m) Domestic cost-to-core income evolution 1Q16 1Q15 yoy Personnel % 62% 65% 63% G&As % Depreciation % 56% 56% Group % Domestic OpEx evolution ( m) Headcount evolution ( 000) G&A & other SEE & Other Staff Greece FY09 1 FY14 FY15 1Q16 16 Profitability

18 Asset quality 4

19 Aided by reduced formation and high coverage levels, Q1.16 CoR charges begin to normalize (164bps) Greece: 90dpd ratio and coverage Group: 90dpd ratio and coverage 32.0% 32.1% 33.8% 34.1% 34.7% 31.4% 31.5% 33.0% 33.1% 33.6% SEE & other: 90dpd ratio: 27.0% Coverage: 58.3% 60.7% 74.9% 73.4% 76.8% 76.5% 59.9% 72.3% 71.3% 74.6% 74.5% Greece: 90dpd formation and provisions Peer Group analysis 3 : asset quality (Group) CoR 1 (bps) x 2.6x 1.8x 2.1x Texas ratio Includes AQR , Includes AQR % 37% 34% 35% 75% 65% 69% 64% 90dpd ratio Coverage ratio NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 90dpd flows ( m) Provisions ( m) 1. CoR (bps) adjusted for AQR charges, calculated on net loans 2. Texas Ratio: (NPEs-Provisions)/TBV 3. Peer comparison is based on results released until May 26, Asset Quality

20 Retail formation remains negative, underlying corporate formation is close to zero Mortgages 1 ( m) Consumer ( m) Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 SBLs ( m) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Corporate ( m) Incl. 272m from three large corporate accounts already classified as NPEs 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1. Mortgage formation up to 3Q14 Is on 180dpd basis; 4Q14 onwards is on a 90dpd basis 19 Asset quality

21 NPE stock stabilizes Domestic delinquency formation ( m) NPE stock evolution ( bn) Incl. 272m from three large corporate accounts already classified as NPEs FNPEs & other impaired Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Domestic 90dpd restructuring flows ( m) 90dpd 1, Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 20 Asset quality

22 Coverage of 90dpd loans at 77%; more than 2/3rds of FNPEs<90dpd are <30dpd 90dpd ratios per segment 90dpd NPE bridge ( bn) 56% 63% % 97% 75% 25% 35% 15.4 Cash coverage 41% 109% 77% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE 90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE Other impaired NPEs NPE ratios and coverage per segment Forborne stock breakdown ( bn) Collateral coverage 81% 7% 64% 47% 56% 69% 72% FPE 1.5 Cash coverage 47% 50% 41% 80% 66% 62% 54% 27% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE FNPE >90dpd 2.8 FNPE 31-89dpd FNPE<30 dpd 4.5 LLAs/ Gross loans 13% 55% 48% 26% 27% 21 Asset quality

23 Capital 5

24 CET1 ratio at 17.2% 1 or 16.7% 1 on a CRD4 FL basis CET 1 ratio Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation ( bn) 17.5% 17.2% Excluding CoCos (+500ps) 16.7% TBV 7.0bn CoCos Ordinary equity GW & intangibles Minority interest Other CET1 Peer Group analysis 2 : CET1 Capital ratios 3 Phased-in 17.2% 16.7% CET1: 7.0bn CET1: 7.0bn CET1: 6.7bn 13.7% 14.1% 4Q15 1Q16 CRD 4 fully loaded Fully loaded 16.7% 13.0% 16.0% 13.1% RWAs ( bn) NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 1. Includes Finansbank, Astir Palace and NBGI divestments, excludes CoCos 2. Peer comparison is based on results released until May 26, Excl. CoCos and State prefs. 23 Capital

25 Macro 6

26 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec :Q4 2010:Q2 2010:Q4 2011:Q2 2011:Q4 2012:Q2 2012:Q4 2013:Q2 2013:Q4 2014:Q2 2014:Q4 2015:Q2 2015:Q4 2016:Q2 2016:Q4 Feb-08 Oct-08 Jun-09 Feb-10 Oct-10 Jun-11 Feb-12 Oct-12 Jun-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Jun-15 Feb-16 forecasts Greece: Recession is mild and fiscal over-performance in 2015 has been verified GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q) Unemployment rate and employment growth % % q-o-q & -1.3% y-o-y in Q1:16, expansion in H2:2016 according to EU Commission y-o-y % GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis) Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis) State budget primary balance (% GDP) Gen. Government: Total and primary balance surplus deficit % GDP % GDP Primary balance, 2015 (as % of GDP): +0.7% vs. target of -0.25% Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin Gen. Government Total balance Gen. Government Primary balance Primary balance (Programme target) 25

27 * Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb f Domestic and external rebalancing continues GDP spending side decomposition Current account balance (% GDP) % GDP % GDP Exports(left axis) Investment (left axis) Imports (left axis) Private consumption (right axis) Greece Euro area Goods exports & tourism revenue (y-o-y change) Cost competitiveness ULC based exchange rate % Index 2004=100, Performance relative to 37 industrial countries Goods exports excl. oil & ships (y-o-y, 12m ma) Tourism revenue, gross (y-o-y, 12m ma) Germany Ireland Greece Spain Portugal Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, AMECO, OECD 26

28 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Review completion to boost liquidity and confidence, ameliorating fiscal pressure on disposable income; 2H16 recovery to be supported by anticipated ECB decisions Greece - Business & consumer confidence indicators Greece - Manufacturing production and PMI Industrial (left axis) Retail (left axis) Services (left axis) Consumer (right axis) PMI, deviation from 50 Manufacturing production (3m m.a., y-o-y change) Greece - Construction confidence & public investment Greek & Portuguese 10y Gov. Bond spread over bund % % Construction Confidence (left axis) PIP Disbursements (y-o-y, 3m mov avg, right axis) Greece: 10y Government bond spread over bund Portugal: 10y Government bond spread over bund Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, Markit, EU Commission, Bloomberg 27

29 Appendix 7

30 Group Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet Group P&L Group m 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 Cash & Reserves Interbank placements Securities Loans (Gross) Provisions (12 909) (12 843) (12 357) (12 204) (10 094) Goodwill & intangibles Tangible assets DTA Other assets Assets held for sale Total assets Interbank liabilities Due to customers Debt securities Other liabilities Hybrids Liabilities held for sale Minorities Equity Total liabilities and equity m 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 NII Net fees Insurance income Core Income Trading & other income (6) 108 (178) 80 (111) Income Operating Expenses (309) (333) (325) (325) (316) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (158) (739) (256) (2 329) (352) Operating Profit 67 (441) (253) (2 051) (221) Other impairments (34) (247) (51) (134) (37) PBT 33 (688) (304) (2 185) (257) Taxes (7) (62) (5) PAT (cont. ops) 26 (750) 214 (1 645) (263) PAT (discount. ops) 71 (1 160) (595) Minorities (10) (2) (12) (5) (10) Other one-offs - (138) (9) - - Attributable PAT 87 (2 050) (401) (1 616) (159) 29 Appendix

31 Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other Greece SEE & Other m 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 NII Net fees 20 (3) (10) 5 6 Insurance income Core Income Trading & other income (19) 105 (178) 84 (120) Income Operating Expenses (243) (262) (259) (257) (252) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income (39) Provisions (134) (671) (232) (2 302) (323) Operating Profit 35 (413) (271) (2 062) (243) Other impairments (34) (242) (51) (134) (36) PBT 2 (655) (322) (2 196) (279) Taxes (3) (62) (2) PAT (1) (717) 199 (1 653) (281) m 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15 NII Net fees Insurance income Core Income Trading & other income (4) 10 Income Operating Expenses (66) (72) (67) (68) (64) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (24) (68) (23) (27) (28) Operating Profit 31 (28) Other impairments (0) (5) (1) (1) (1) PBT 31 (33) Taxes (4) (0) (2) (3) (3) PAT 27 (33) Appendix

32 Contact details Paul Mylonas Ioannis Kyriakopoulos Deputy CEO Group CFO Greg Papagrigoris Anthony Kouleimanis Maria Kanellopoulou Ilias Katsikalis Head of IR Investor Relations Investor Relations Investor Relations This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.