National Bank of Greece

Transcription

1 National Bank of Greece Q Results May 28 th, 2014

2 Q Results: Highlights

3 National Bank of Greece Results Result Highlights Post the 2.5bn capital increase and before capital actions, CET1 1 ratio at 15.4% 2 Group PAT in the black for a 6 th consecutive quarter at 181mn Operating profit (PPI less Provisions) doubles qoq to 76mn Group NII remains resilient +7% yoy, 0% qoq in stable currency terms Group cost cutting (-10% yoy) is driven by impressive results in domestic personnel cost containment (-19% yoy) Group Cost to income ratio already at 54%, Domestic at 52% 90dpd formation in Greece and Turkey on a continuous decelerating trend (-6% and - 66% qoq) despite seasonality Finansbank on a positive trajectory, bounces back from lows: PAT at TL192mn (+102% qoq) Industry leading L:D ratio at 93%, with Greece at 84% Following the capital raising and the 5 yr bond issue at a yield of 4.5%, ECB funding down to 14.5bn, 3 of which 7.1bn through EFSF bonds 1 Common Equity Tier 1, CRD ІV rules for Pro forma for the completed 2.5bn capital increase, Finansbank IRB, and Astir Hotel sale; excluding BoG approved capital actions deliverable by Sep.14 3 Date as of 19 May 14 page 3

4 Highlights National Bank of Greece Results Positive Group PAT for a 6 th quarter in a row driven by the doubling of Operating Profit Pre-Provision Earnings Highlights Consolidated P&L Account PPI of 438mn (+25% yoy) absorbs declining credit risk charges of 362mn (-15% yoy), producing operating profit of 76mn Group PAT, is in the black for a 6 th consecutive quarter Group NII stripping off the TL translation impact - keeps recovering in Greece and SEE, displaying remarkable resilience in Turkey: Greece: +14% yoy SEE: +9% yoy Turkey: -2% yoy (TL terms), despite a strong Cost containment accelerates in Greece (-16% yoy ) driving Group OpEx down by 10% yoy Credit risk charges are reduced further by 15% yoy and 7% qoq, driven by reduced 90dpd formation (-32% yoy, -6% qoq) Finansbank starts to recover from the tough levels of : Core income: +1% qoq OpEx: -6% qoq PPI: +24% qoq PAT: +102% (TL 192mn) SEE produces a quarterly PAT of 14mn 750mn 5yr senior unsecured bond issue priced through the sovereign at a yield of 4.5% mn yoy% qoq% NII % 776 `-3% Net fees % 136-5% Insurance income % % Trading & other income 44 (7) % Income % % Operating Expenses (506) (563) -10% (638) -21% Pre-Provision Earnings % % Loan Provision Charges (362) (428) -15% (388) -7% Operating Profit 76 (76) - 34 >100% Impairments & other one-offs % % Taxes (20) (7) >100% (18) +11% Minorities & non cash chrg (13) (7) +86% (4) >100% Attributable PAT >100% % page 4

5 Highlights National Bank of Greece Results NPL Formation decelerates further, liquidity improves, capital adequacy is strengthened Asset Quality Liquidity Capital Pre-Provision Earnings Formation of domestic past due loans dropped further to 312mn in Q1, reduced by 32% yoy and 6% qoq, supporting a decelerating trend for 6 quarters in a row domestic provisioning charges reduced by 17% at 270bps vs 324bps in. Domestic coverage at 56%, up by 270bps yoy Eurosystem exposure reduced by 6.2bn ytd, to just 7% of Group assets L:D at 84% domestically, and 93% for the Group, driven by strong deposit gathering in the key regions: Greece +15% yoy, Turkey +23% yoy reported CET I ratio at 10.5% Pro forma for the 2.5bn capital increase and before capital actions*, CΕT I at 15.4% Domestic: +90dpd flows Group & Domestic L:D 117% 115% CET I 15,4% dpd formation -32% yoy % 106% 108% 112% 105% 102% 109% 97% 97% 93% 101% 96% 93% 90% 88% 84% EBA CT I CET I 10,3% 10,5% RWAs: 57.7bn +0 Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 Q1.12 Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 FY.13A A *PF *: Pro forma for the 2.5bn cap. increase, FB IRB and Astir hotel sale, before capital actions 1,040mn page 5

6 Highlights National Bank of Greece Results Gradual NII recovery in Greece, resilience in Turkey despite systemic pressures (-2%qoq) Pre-Provision Group Earnings Income Group Net Interest Margin & NII mn yoy% qoq% NII % 776-3% +0% Adjusted for stable TL terms 400 Group NIM - bps Group NII yoy breakdown ( mn) mn yoy Net fees % 136-5% Insurance income % % Core income % 929-3% Non core income 44 (7) % Total Group Income % % +1% Adjusted for stable TL terms Q4.12 Greece % Turkey % SEE & Int l % Group NII % In TL terms Adjusted for stable TL terms Greece: NII & NIM Turkey: NII & NIM SEE: NII & NIM NII ( mn) NIM (bps) NII (TL mn) NII ( mn) NIM (bps) LT avg 580bps NII ( mn) NIM (bps) page 6

7 Q1.10 Q1.11 Q1.12 Q1.10 Q1.11 Q1.12 Highlights National Bank of Greece Results Personnel costs in Greece down by 19% reflecting the successful completion of the large scale VRS Group Operating Expenses Greece mn yoy% qoq% Greece % % Personnel expenses % % G&A s % 85-25% Depreciation % 29-15% Turkey % % SEE & other % 67-10% Group Opex % % -6% on a stable currency and like for like basis Personnel expenses - mn % vs Q G&As & Depreciation - mn -25% vs Q mn yoy% qoq% Personnel exp % % 80% Group C:I ratio G&As % % Depreciation % 49-4% Group Opex % % 70% 60% 50% 62% 60% -8% pps yoy 54% Group C:I at 54% the lowest since % page 7

8 Highlights National Bank of Greece Results 90dpd formation normalizes in Turkey, decelerates further in Greece +90dpd Evolution +90dpd flows & CoR Group: +90dpd Greece: +90dpd Group: +90dpd flows 23% 21% 19% 17% 16,5% 19,0% 18,2% 20,8% 19,8% 21,9% 22,5% 23,0% 29% 26% 23% 20% 23,1% 21,9% 19,3% 24,3% 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 28,4% flows -38% yoy % Q2.12 Q3.12 Q % Q2.12 Q3.12 Q Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 7% Turkey: +90dpd 28% SEE: +90dpd 600 Group Cost of Risk- bps 6% 5,5% 5,2% 5% 4% 5,8% Incl. TL 0.5bn NPL sale 5,2% 5,4% 6,1% 6,0% NPL ratio to benefit c.100bps in Q2.14 from TL 0.7bn retail NPL portfolio sale in May 26% 24% 22% 24,1% 23,3% 23,1% 24,4% 24,6% 23,9% 24,8% % Q3.12 Q % Q3.12 Q Q3.12 page 8

9 Highlights National Bank of Greece Results Sustained deposit gathering across regions reduces further Group and Domestic L:D to 93% and 84% Loans / Deposits Eurosystem Funding ( bn) Greece: Deposits Evolution Group 112% 106% Greece 117% 115% 112% 109% 108% 105% 102% 101% 96% 93% 97% 97% 93% 88% 90% 84% 33 30,9 100% ELA 27,5 25,5 22,2 20,7 18,0 14,5 100% ECB. Adj. for 7.1bn EFSF bonds net Eurosystem exposure / Assets at 7.2%* mn ytd yoy Savings % +2% Sight % +15% Time deposits % +17% Customer deposits % +11% State & Public entities >100% Total % +15% Q1.12 Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 May.14 (*) excl. EFSF bonds Eurosystem funding and Total Assets Greece: Deposits SEE: Deposits Turkey: Deposits 38,9 40,1 40,6 45,1 43,7 Greece: 45.9bn +15% yoy 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,6 5,5 SEE: 5.4bn +2% yoy TL retail bonds TL 40.4bn + 23%yoy Q4.12 Q4.12 page 9

10 National Bank of Greece Results Significantly Strengthened NBG CET1 Ratio Under Basel III NBG Capital Position Well Capitalized in European Context Basel III 1 Fully Loaded CET1 Ratio (Pro forma) Basis for Upcoming ECB AQR NBG Estimate of Basel III Impact Including Full Phasing (Applicable 2024) Peer 1 Peer 2 NBG Pro Forma 11.6% Peer 3 Peer 4 4.9% 2.3% 17.7% Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer % (6.1)% 11.6% Peer 8 Peer 9 Buffer Above 8% Peer 10 Peer 11 Peer 12 Peer 13 CRD IV CET I 2.5bn Capital Increase (Pro forma IRB & Astir) BoG Approved Capital Actions Pro Forma CET I Fully Loaded Basel 3 Impact Pro Forma Basel 3 Fully Loaded CET1 Peer 14 Peer 15 Median: 10% page 10

11 National Bank of Greece Q Results: Greece

12 Segment review: Greece National Bank of Greece Results Operating Profit broadly to break even driven by NII recovery, cost containment and lower CoR Pre-Provision Earnings Highlights domestic operating result (- 23mn), is driven by strong performance in all key areas: NII recovers (+14% yoy) driven by lower funding costs Impressive cost containment (-16% yoy), driven by personnel cost reduction (-19% yoy) Further normalization of credit risk charges (-17% yoy) due to lower formation; coverage at 56% PPI of 241mn (6.5x PPI) comes close to absorbing loan loss provisions of 264mn, producing a small operating loss of 23mn PAT reaches 104mn driven by operating profit improvement and additional DTA 90dpd formation levels drop further in Q1 to 312mn (-6% qoq) and (-32% yoy) Deposits up 5% qoq, drive L:D further down to 84%, close to pre crisis levels. Eurosystem funding reduced further by 7.7bn since the beginning of the year, at just 7% over assets. (excl. EFSF notes) P&L Account mn yoy% qoq% NII % % Net fees 14 5 >100% 19-26% Insurance income % % Trading & other income 45 (42) % Income % % Wages & Salaries (169) (208) -19% (212) -20% G&As & Depreciation (88) (98) -11% (113) -22% Operating Expenses (257) (306) -16% (326) -21% Pre-Provision Earnings >100% 254-5% Loan Provision charges (264) (318) -17% (275) -4% Operating Profit (23) (281) -92% (21) +9% Impairments & other one-offs % % Taxes (1) 30 - (12) -92% Minorities & non-cash charges (13) (5) >100% (4) >100% Attributable PAT 104 (138) % Highly successful 5yr bond issue in April: 500mn senior unsecured Priced through the sovereign at a yield of 4.5% page 12

13 FY.12 FY.12 FY.12 FY.12 Segment review: Greece National Bank of Greece Results Corporate book grows +9% yoy and total book +4% Domestic Loan Book Domestic Mortgages* Domestic Consumer Lending* Gross Balances ( bn) 6,4 6,3 6,2 6,3 6,3 6,2 44,3 44,7 45,5 46,4 46,0 +4% yoy 18,9 18,7 18,4 18,8 18,5 18,4-1.5% yoy -2.0% yoy -12% from Q2.10 peak -15% from Q2.10 peak (*) Gross balances (*) Gross balances Domestic Business Lending Net Balances ( bn) Corporate Lending (>2.5mn)* SBLs ( bn)* 38,6 38,3 39,7 39,3 38,7 +0% yoy 15,7 15,7 15,4 17,0 17,3 17,2 +9.1% yoy -9% from Q2.10 peak 3,7 3,6 3,6 4,2 4,3 4,2 +17% yoy -3% from Q2.10 peak (*) Gross balances (*) Gross balances page 13

14 Q1.12 Q2.12 Q3.12 Q4.12 Segment review: Greece National Bank of Greece Results NII driven by repricing of time deposits and lower eurosystem funding dependence Domestic Spreads Domestic Net Interest Income Lending Spreads (match-maturity; bps) NII Breakdown (match-maturity; mn) qoq Mortgages Consumer loans SBLs Total retail Corporate lending Total lending Deposit Spreads (match-maturity; bps) qoq Core deposits Time Total deposits mn qoq Core deposits Term deposits Deposit NII Retail loans Corporate loans Lending NII Bonds Eurosystem funding Funding gap Subsidiaries & Other Domestic NII Funding mix ( bn) Domestic deposits ECB Funding ELA Further de-escalation of time deposit spreads Lowering of Eurosystem dependence NBG Term Deposits: New Production Spreads 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 30bps below backbook spreads page 14

15 National Bank of Greece Results National Bank of Greece Q Results: Turkey page 15

16 Segment review: Turkey marks the beginning of recovery in Turkey National Bank of Greece Results Highlights Profit & Loss Account P&L account PAT at TL 192mn (+102% qoq) in a difficult, yet improving banking environment Core income is recovering (+1% qoq), despite monetary policy tightening: NII resilient in (-2% qoq) Impressive growth in fees (+10% qoq) OpEx down 13% qoq (6% qoq adjusted for like for like) reflects zero branch openings Provision charges down -17% qoq reflect improving 90dpd formation, driving coverage levels +3ppts, qoq to 71% Liquidity profile improves further: Solid credit expansion (+6% qoq) remains fully funded by new deposits (+8% qoq) Eurobond issuance of USD 500mn in April was met by high international investor demand Best in class capital adequacy at 16% TL mn qoq% yoy% Net interest income % 788-2% Net fees % % Trading & other income (9) (2) >100% 60 - Income % % Operating expenses (579) (667) -13% (457) +27% Pre-provision earnings % % Provisions (218) (262) -17% (194) +12% Operating Profit % % Income tax (52) (16) >100% (89) -42% Minority (0) 0 - (1) -50% Attributable PAT >100% % Highly successful Eurobond issuance in April 2014: Raised USD 500mn, with 5 years maturity Fixed coupon rate, 6.25% p.a. Oversubscribed c.3x page 16

17 Segment review: Turkey National Bank of Greece Results Core income up qoq on resilient NII and supportive fees NII and NIM Yields Net Interest Margin (bps) Net Interest Income (TL mn) Key Product Yields (bps) Since Q1, loan repricing has continued while time deposit cost has been declining TL 770mn -2% qoq -2% qoq TL Mortgages TL Credit Cards TL Consumer lending TL SME lending bps qoq M.13 3M.14 TL Time Deposits FC Time Deposits Fees Operating Expenses Net Fees (TL mn) Breakdown 300 TL 280mn +10% qoq TL mn qoq yoy Wages & Salaries* % % % G&A, Depreciation % % Total OpEx % % *: excluding cash bonuses qoq yoy M.13 3M.14 FTEs * Branches *: as of April 14 page 17

18 Segment review: Turkey National Bank of Greece Results Successful business model shift towards SMEs is fully funded by deposit gathering Gross Loans (TL bn) Retail Lending (TL bn) Business Lending (TL bn) 43,7 45,2 47,7 48,0 50.7bn 50,7 +16% yoy +6% qoq 25,9 26,0 26,1 26,0 25.7bn -1% yoy -1% qoq 17,8 19,2 21,6 22,0 25.0bn +40% yoy +14% qoq Total Deposits (TL bn) Demand deposits (TL bn) Branches TL retail bonds % TL 40.4bn + 23% yoy + 8% qoq 3,7 +30% +6% yoy yoy+67% 4,4 4,4 5,4 12% 4.9bn % of total deposit pool Average branch age (years) Share of branches aged <5 years Young branch network Finansbank Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer % 30% 22% 15% 22% Deposits per branch (TRY mn) Source: The Banks Association of Turkey page 18

19 Segment review: Turkey National Bank of Greece Results 90dpd formation abates NPL Formation Provision Coverage 5,5% 5,8% 5,2% 5,4% 6,1% 6,0% 75% 69% 71% 68% 71% Benefits from TL 0.5bn retail NPL portfolio sale NPL ratio to benefit c.100bps in Q2.14 from TL 0.7bn retail NPL portfolio sale in May Q4.12 Provision Charge (TL mn) Pre-provision margin (bps) TL 218mn 627 Pre Provision Margin (bps) 391 bps 184 bps 188 Cost of Risk (bps) 2.1x Cost of Risk 184 bps 3M.13 3M.14 page 19

20 Segment review: Turkey National Bank of Greece Results Strong capital adequacy and low leverage support balance sheet expansion Capital Adequacy Securities / Total Assets (%) (TRY mn) Core Tier I Tier II and Deductions Total Capital % 53% 12,9 14, % 55% 76% 24,4 18,4 19,3 AFS / Total Securities RWAs Core Tier I Ratio 11.8% Total CAR 16.0% Peer 3 Finansbank Peer 4 Peer 1 Peer 2 BRSA Consolidated CAR (%) vs. peers Assets / Equity (x) , ,9 9,2 9,4 9,6 14,3 14,5 15,1 13,5 Peer 1 Peer 4 Peer 2 Peer 3 Finansbank BRSA Consolidated Finansbank Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 1 Peer 4 BRSA Consolidated page 20

21 National Bank of Greece Q Results: Southeastern Europe

22 Segment review: SEE National Bank of Greece Results SEE: profitable, self funded and well capitalized Pre-Provision Earnings Highlights P&L Account SEE business remains profitable: PAT at 14mn (+8% yoy) NII and fees continue recovering in Q1, up by 9% yoy NIM picks up (+22bps qoq) as funding costs improve Cost containment is sustained, -4% yoy Overall PPI up by 27% yoy Liquidity improves as deposits grow and credit conditions remain tight: Deposits +2% yoy, deleveraging continues (loans -3% yoy) L:D ratio at 101% Commercial gap at 28mn in Q1 vs 1.52bn in Dec.11 mn yoy% qoq% NII % 66 +1% Net fees % 21-4% Core Revenues % 87 +0% Trading & other income % 2 +33% Income % 89 +1% Operating Expenses (51) (53) -4% (55) -7% Pre-provision earnings % % Provisions (21) (16) +35% (12) +70% Operating Profit % 21-19% Other impairment (1) (2) -50% (4) -75% Taxes (2) 1 - (2) +13% Net income % 15-7% page 22

23 Segment review: SEE National Bank of Greece Results NIM(+22bps qoq) benefits from declining funding costs and increased asset yields Income Asset yields and funding cost 6,17% 5,98% 5,79% 5,88% 5,69% Asset yield -19bps qoq -48bps yoy mn NII +1% qoq mn Fees -4% qoq bps NIM 3,42% 3,24% 3,03% 2,35% 2,67% 7,4 7,3 7,6 7,4 7,6 Funding cost -32bps qoq -107 bps yoy Opex and C:I Pre-provision earnings 53 51mn OpEx -4% yoy % C:I mn Pre-prov. +14% qoq bps Pre-provision margin +37bps qoq page 23

24 Q1.12 Segment review: SEE National Bank of Greece Results Balanced liquidity profile as deposit gathering combines with minor deleveraging Deposits Deposits per country 5,2 5,3 5,6 5,5 5.4bn +2% yoy -2% qoq corporate retail Bulgaria 2.6bn +2% yoy -3%qoq Romania 0.8bn -1% yoy -7% qoq FYROM 1.0bn +5% yoy +0% qoq Serbia 0.7bn Albania +2% yoy -0% qoq 0.2bn +9% yoy +3% qoq Loans Loans:Deposits Commercial gap 6,4 6,3 6,3 6,2 6.2bn -3% yoy 0% qoq 108% 104% 99% 99% Down from peak of 200% 101% L:D -7pps yoy +2pps qoq Commercial gap mn (net loans deposits) page 24

25 Segment review: SEE National Bank of Greece Results 90dpd generation although volatile due to corporate delinquencies remain low Charge-offs & Cost of Risk Cash coverage % 29 corporate recoveries mn charge-offs incl. corporate recoveries 155bps provision run rate 49% 51% 51% 52% 52% Bulgaria Romania FYROM Serbia 49% 46% 59% 90% +90dpd generation ( m) +90dpd ratio mn 24,1% 24,4% 24,6% 23,9% 24,8% -47 page 25

26 National Bank of Greece Appendix

27 Appendix National Bank of Greece Results NBG Group: Summary Financials Consolidated Profit & Loss Account mn yoy% qoq% NII % 776-3% Net fees % 136-5% Insurance income % % Trading & other income 44 (7) % Income % % Operating Expenses (506) (563) -10% (638) -21% Pre-Provision Earnings % % Loan Provision Charges (362) (428) -15% (388) -7% Core Profit 76 (76) - 34 >100% Other impairments (5) Cash PBT % % Taxes (20) (7) 100% (18) +11% Minorities & non cash chrg (13) (7) 86% (4) >100% Attrib. PAT (before one-offs) % 16 >100% DTA & other one-offs 143 (159) % Attributable PAT >100% % Balance Sheet mn yoy% qoq% Cash & Reserves % % Interbank placements % % Securities % % Loans (gross) % % Provisions (9 080) (7 610) +19% (8 851) +3% Goodwill & Intangibles % % Tangible assets % % Other assets % % Total Assets % % Interbank & Securities Repos % % Due to customers % % Debt securities % % Other liabilities % % Hybrids % % Minorities >100% % Equity (1 968) % Total liabilities & equity % % page 27

28 Appendix National Bank of Greece Results Turkey: Summary Financials Profit & Loss Account TL mn qoq% yoy% Net interest income % 788-2% Net fees % % Trading & other income (9) (2) >100% 60 - Income % % Operating expenses (579) (667) -13% (457) +27% Pre-provision earnings % % Provisions (218) (262) -17% (194) +12% Income tax (52) (16) >100% (89) -42% Minority (0) 0 - (1) -50% Attributable PAT >100% % Summary Balance Sheet TL mn qoq% yoy% Cash & reserves % % Interbank placements >100% 930 >100% Investment & Trading Securities % % Loans (net) % % Tangible assets >100% 489 >100% Goodwill & intangibles % % Other assets % >100% Total Assets % % Interbank liabilities % >100% Due to customers % % Borrowed funds % % Other liabilities % % Minorities % % Equity % % Total liabilities & equity % % page 28

29 National Bank of Greece Contact details Petros Christodoulou Deputy CEO Paula Hadjisotiriou Group CFO Paul Mylonas Group CRO Greg Papagrigoris Head of IR This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.