9M 2012 Results. December 21, 2012

Transcription

1 9M 2012 Results December 21, 2012

2 2 Table of Contents I. 9M 2012 Highlights 1. Macro Discussion and Results Key Messages 2. Capital and Liquidity Position 3. Asset Quality Affected by a Challenging Environment 4. Financial Performance II. Macroeconomic Environment III. Financial Review IV. Segmental Report V. Appendix 1. Group Profit & Loss 2. Business Unit Financials Pages This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which include comments with respect to our objectives and strategies, and the results of our operations and our business, considering environment and risk conditions. However, by their nature, these forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, uncertainties and opportunities, both general and specific. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled. We caution readers of this presentation not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause future Group results to differ materially from these targets. Forward-looking statements may be influenced in particular by factors such as fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates and stock indices, the effects of competition in the areas in which we operate, and changes in economic, political, regulatory and technological conditions. We caution that the foregoing list is not exhaustive. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, investors should carefully consider the aforementionedfactors as well as other uncertainties and events.

3 I. Results Highlights

4 1. Macro Discussion and Results Key Messages

5 Determined Policy Action Brings Optimism On Greece Sustainable Fiscal Consolidation And Privatisation Set To Restore Confidence And Growth Recovery prospects enhanced due to strengthening fiscal consolidation and privatization, underpinned by rising confidence. Bank recapitalization to proceed swiftly following announcement of terms and agreement for the release of 52.5bn of bailout funds. Deposit reflow critical to expanding bank lending capacity. Fiscal consolidation on track, with the 2012 primary deficit at a better-than-expected -1.2% of GDP, while a primary surplus of +0.4% of GDP is targeted for Greece s new government is determined to achieve a sustainable general government primary surplus position of 4.5% of GDP by 2016, following agreement with the Troika on a package of 18.8bn in measures to be spread over , fully observing commitments in line with Troika s MOU. A fully-fledged program of privatization and real estate development under implementation, with strict timeframes and prior actions in place, including the old Athens airport, natural gas and electricity companies, state lotteries and the gaming corporation, various network industries, land development projects, ports, airports, etc. Privatization revenue of 11bn is expected over and 50bn over the longer term. Adjustment Investment Progress: Driven Driven Growth External Growth (% Balance (% YoY) YoY) FDI & Exports (2007) Non-Oil Exports (In bn) Non-Oil Tourism Imports Oil Shippin Imports 10.2 Jan-Sep 2010 * Net of EU transfers and Income Balance Jan-Sep 2011 Jan-Sep 2012 Adjustment In Progress: General Government Balance Primary Balance (In bn) ,0 92, m % Change Primary Expenditure -24.0% Net Revenue -7.0% Nominal GDP -16.2% ,5 87, m e Net Revenue Primary Expenditure ,4 2013B 5

6 Key Developments and Results Highlights for 9M 2012 Recapitalisation needs for Alpha Bank at 4,571mn, as assessed by Bank of Greece, include the PSI impact and the Blackrock diagnostic study result. Pro-forma for 4.6bn recapitalization, EBA CTI at 12.8% Acquisition of Emporiki Bank will result in a net recapitalization of the combined group by 3bn from Crédit Agricole and is expected to create fully phased operating synergies of 200 mn Successful completion of Liability Management added 333mn to our CTI Participation in December 2012 in the Hellenic Republic s exchange offer with 1.5 bn of Greek Government Bonds Reversal of negative trend in deposits with inflows of 0.7bn in Q3 2012, but deposits are down by 3.1bn ytd. Central Banks funding at 25.5bn NPLs at 20.9%, backed by 4.1bn of on-balance sheet provisions, yielding 43% cash coverage, or 121% inclusive of collaterals 9M 2012 impairments rise to 1.2bn from 0.8bn, up 41.5% yoy to address asset quality deterioration Net Losses at 712mn, including a pre-tax trading loss of 264.5mn resulting from the initial valuation of new GGBs at current prices at the date of the transaction 6

7 7 9M 2012 Performance Highlights 9M 12 9M 11 Change % ( billion) Net Loans (12.3%) Deposits (17.1%) Accumulated Provisions % Shareholders Equity 0.7 Romania 4.6 (84.4%) Assets (8.9%) ( million) Operating Income 1, ,730.5 (38.2%) Operating Expenses (785.7) (831.9) (5.6%) Pre-Provision Income (68.4%) Impairment Losses on credit risk (1,170.4) (827.4) 41.5% Profit/ (Loss) after tax excluding impairment on PSI eligible portfolio (711.7) 41.6 Impairment Losses on PSI (608.1) Profit / (Loss) after tax attributable to Shareholders (711.8) (566.7)

8 2. Capital and Liquidity Position

9 Pro-forma EBA CTI stands at 12.8%, not Inclusive of any Capital Enhancement from Emporiki acquisition 9 EBA Core Tier I Build up y-o-y (without Emporiki acquisition effect) Total CAD 13.7% 6.3bn 1.6bn 13.7% (831bps) 2.9bn 3.8% 690bps 42bps Emporiki acquisition to enhance the combined Group capital position by: 11.3% EBA CTI 5.2bn (54bps) 1 Sep. 11 PSI Impact New GGBs m -tm Loss (149bps) Operating Performance 78bps LME HFSF Advances Other Remaining BoG Capital Requirements 12.8% EBA 1 CTI 5.5bn Sep. 12 full including BoG capital requirements a) 2,850mn capital increase to Emporiki b) 150mn convertible bond to be issued by Alpha Bank, fully subscribed by CASA 1 Excluding impairment related to PSI Asset Deleveraging Releases Capital ( billion) Assets RWAs (8.9%) 62.7 (7.4%) bps in EBA CTI y-o-y Comments Pro-forma EBA CTI at 12.8% of which 2.9bn have been already disbursed by the HFSF. Remaining capital enhancement needed of 1.6bn PSI and new GGBs mark-to-market negative effect on capital at 885 bps Sep. 11 Sep Sep. 11 Sep. 12 Credit Risk Operational Risk Market Risk Successful completion of Liability Management Exercise in Q2 12 enhanced EBA CTI by 78bps or 0.3bn Recapitalization to be concluded by April 2013

10 Buffer Build-up of 11.5bn to address BoG s Diagnostic expected three year adverse scenario losses 1 ( billion) Diagnostic Capital Needs 11.5bn BoG assessment of a 4.6bn capital need allows the Bank to 2.7 sustain a 7% CTI ratio throughout the next 3 years EBA CTI 13.1% bn 4.6bn Remaining Capital Enhancement HFSF Capital Advance quarters (from June 2011) into the 3 year stress period and the pro-forma CTI stands at 12.8% (as of 30/9/2012) 1.3 Positive starting point Dec. 11 EBA CTI Including BoG Capital Requirements Dec 11 Provision Stock 3-year PPI Stress Scenario Estimates Total Buffer 1 Does not include capital enhancement from Emporiki acquisition

11 BlackRock Diagnostic Assessment Comments Base Case Adverse Scenario Estimated Loss Lifetime in % Estimated Loss Lifetime in % Commercial Non-SBP 11 % 15 % SBLs 44 % 49 % Consumer Credit 25 % 32 % Mortgages 13 % 21 % Total Alpha Bank 17 % 22 % The diagnostic expected loss outcome was higher than Bank s expectations due to : Romania Underestimation of collateral coverage Cure rates of the restructured loans were not taken into account System Average 15 % 20 % Base Case Adverse scenario 3 yr adjusted 3yr adjusted Total Alpha Bank 14% 18 % Based on our performance 5 quarters into the stress period we are confident that our cumulative impairment for the period should not exceed the adverse scenario of Blackrock Note: Capital needs estimation was based on the three-year adjusted adverse scenario 11

12 Deposit Inflows in Greece due to Increased Expectations following June Elections Evolution of Alpha Bank Deposits ( billion) (8.1%) qoq +2.6% qoq (2.3) Abroad Greece Mar. 12 Δ Q Jun. 12 Δ Q Sep. 12 Δ Oct. 12 Δ Nov. 12 Greek System Deposits (Bank of Greece) ( billion) 160 Deposits/Nominal GDP: Eurozone 111% 1 Greece 78% Δ deposits Jun-Oct 12: Alpha Bank inflows +5% vs. Greek system +3% 3% Comments Reversal of deposit trends in Greece following June elections with Alpha Bank outperforming the market Stability of deposits abroad, despite negative developments in Greece Alpha Bank deposit trends broadly in line with Greek system s deposit evolution Dec. 05 Dec. 06 Dec. 07 Dec. 08 Dec. 09 Dec. 10 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Oct September Data 12

13 13 Central Bank Funding Needs follow Deposit Evolution Central Banks Funding Utilisation Breakdown of Central Banks Utilisation ( billion) bn 25.5 ( billion) Mar. 12 Sep. 12 Mar. 12 Deposit Decrease Short Term Securitites / Other Repayments Sep. 12 Assets Liabilities Senior Debt Maturity Profile Comments ( billion) Outstanding Debt Maturing Debt Central Banks Funding at 25.5bn, increased by 3.1bn to mainly account for deposit outflows No Senior Debt maturities for the remaining of 2012 and minimal for years ahead 0.1 Sep >2014

14 3. Asset Quality Affected by a Challenging Environment

15 Increased Provisioning Build-up as the Recession Deepens, while Maintaining Coverage at 43% 15 NPL additions vs. yoy GDP growth (12m trailing) NPL ratio % (3.1%) (4.9%) (6.8%) (8.0%) (7.4%) (7.1%) (6.6%) (6.2%) (7.0%) Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Group NPLs and Coverage Coverage ( billion) 121% % % NPLs Impairment Allowances Collateral Source: ELSTAT Business Loans Mortgages Consumer Credit 1 Adjusted for the PSI+ impact on state guaranteed loans NPLs Group Coverage by Segment Comments Source: 130% ECB 83% 76% 115% 4.1bn 1.0 Deteriorating economic environment led to an increased NPL formation of 250bps in Q2 and 270bps in Q3 when adjusted for PSI+ related impact on loans 47% Business Loans 12% 64% Consumer Credit 89% 26% Mortgages 3.1 Provisions stock per region Coverage maintained at 43% or 121% when including collaterals Provision stock increased by 1.4bn to 4.1bn since September 2011 Cash Coverage Collateral Coverage Greece SEE

16 4. Financial Performance

17 Operating Performance Impacted by Higher Funding Cost and Cost of Deposits Pre-Provision Income Build-up (excl. Trading) ( million) Net Interest Income Quarterly Movement ( million) 767 (218) (18) (4) (13) (25) 365 (28) (6) (11) (37) M 11 Δ NII Δ Fees Δ Other Δ OPEX 9M 12 Q1 12 Loans Deposits Funding Bonds & Cost Other Q2 12 Loans DepositsFunding Cost Bonds & Callendar Q3 12 Other Effect Central Bank Funding Average Balances and Cost Comments ( billion) 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% Central Banks Exposure Pre-Provision income excl. trading impacted mainly by subdued NII Funding Cost1 NII impacted by increased cost of funding from higher utilisation of the Emergency Liquidity Mechanism and increased cost of deposits Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q Excluding Fees 17

18 18 Solid Loan Contribution to NII Continues Volumes 1 and Spreads NII Loans Contribution Deleveraging Re-pricing/ Benchmark Rate Gross Balances at quarter end ( million) + 14mn ( million) 47,222 (12.3%) 41,433 (bps) bps bn 45.5bn Sep. 11 Sep. 12 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q Net loans balances Loans Spreads - Group Lending Spreads (bps) (bps) , Consumer Credit - Greece Small Business Loans - Greece +12bps +49bps Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 SE Europe Medium & Large Business - Greece Mortgages - Greece

19 Worsening Deposit Contribution to NII due to Adverse Movement of Benchmark Rate and Deposit Outflows 19 Liability Repricing NII - Deposits Contribution Group Deposits ( million) (bps) (17.1%) 31,682 26,276 Deposit Spreads (66bps) ( million) 11.6bn Balances at quarter end (35) (29) ( 36mn) (47) (60) bn (71) 3 (41) 20.1bn (71) (58) (61) (68) 16.8bn (74) Sep. 11 Sep. 12 (107) Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Time Deposits Sight & Savings Deposits Group Deposit Spread Evolution Deposit Spreads (bps) (67) (58) (53) (39) (41) (37) (65) (89) (107) +26bps (66bps) Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 (bps) (171) (159) (197) 16 5 (228) 13 (19) (256) Sight and Savings - Greece SE Europe Time Deposits - Greece Total Deposits Spreads 1M Euribor Curve Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12

20 Cost Reduction Continues Underpinned by Platform Rationalization Total Operating Expenses Wages & Salaries General Expenses ( million) (5.6%) (5.5%) ( million) (6.0%) (5.3%) (6.0%) (5.0%) (5.6%) (6.2%) (6.4%) 239 9M 11 9M 12 Greece SE Europe 9M 11 9M 12 Greece SE Europe 9M 11 9M 12 Greece SE Europe Branch Evolution y-o-y Headcount Evolution y-o-y 1,045 (51) 971 (37) (21) 584 (12) ,906 6,706 (134) (282) 14,482 (338) 13,755 (387) 6,572 6, ,124 7,842 7,455 Sep. 10 Sep. 11 Sep. 12 Greece SE Europe Sep. 10 Sep. 11 Sep. 12 Greece SE Europe 20

21 II. Macroeconomic Environment

22 Source: Central Banks, Statistical Authorities, Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Alpha Bank Research 22 Greece: Adjustment In Process FDI Suspended & Exports In Austerity (2007) Duration Of Unemployment 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% Retail Sales (Excl. Fuel) (LHS) Economic Sentiment (RHS) Industrial Production (LHS) In thousand people Over months 400 Less 300than months 0 First time Unemployed* Q3' Q3' Unemployment rate of years old 622 Q3' Q3' , Q3'12 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% * incl. those never employed Sovereign Debt Dynamics Unemployment Rate: Different Scenario 200% 190% 180% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% Alpha Bank nominal (real) GDP growth % (3.4%) Troika nominal (real) GDP growth % (3.1%) ,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% Troika L= 0.8%, L/Y= 2.3%, Y= 3.1% 10,0% Alpha Bank L= 1.1%, L/Y= 2.3%, Y= 3.4% 5,0% 0,0% Average Growth : L: employment, L/Y: productivity, Y: real GDP

23 Recovery Moderated In SEE, Postponed Until 2014 In Greece Source: Central Banks, Statistical Authorities, Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Alpha Bank Research 23 GDP Growth Credit Expansion e 2013f GDP Growth 4% Greece Bulgaria Romania Serbia Cyprus 14,0% 2% 14,8% 0% 8,5% 6,9% 7,2% 6,4% 5,6% -2% 4,1% 3,5% 4,5% 4,9% 2,9% 3,8% 1,4% 3,9% 3,9% 1,1% 1,5% 1,9% -4% 1,9% -0,5% 0,0% -3,9% -3,1% -5,0% -6% -8% Greece Eurozone Bulgaria Romania Serbia Cyprus Source: Alpha Bank Research f f 2013f Source: Alpha Bank Research 10y Government Yield Spread REER (based on ULC) (2000=100) Italy (LHS) Spain (LHS) Portugal (LHS) Greece (RHS) Romania Bulgaria Cyprus Euro Area Greece

24 Source: Central Banks, Statistical Authorities, Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Alpha Bank Research 24 It Is A Long Way To... Doom and Gloom: Can you spot the recovery? Current Investment Account* Driven Improves Driven Growth Growth... (% (% YoY) YoY) (available period) Retail Sales Volume -9,3% -6,9% -8,7% -11,2% 9m Tax On Mobile Telephony Receipts 13,2% 37,1% -16,8% -7,2% 9m VAT Receipts 5,0% 4,8% -2,8% -11,1% 10m Automobile Sales -17,4% -37,2% -29,8% -40,7% 11m Manufacturing Production -11,2% -5,1% -9,5% -5,3% 10m Electricity Production -4,2% -9,2% -8,8% -1,8% 10m Electricity Demand (Power Grid) -3,6% -1,4% -2,1% -1,8% 10m Water -3,1% 0,7% -1,9% 1,3% 10m Building Activity -26,5% -23,7% -37,7% -26,3% 9m Cement Production -21,4% -14,3% -35,0% -17,1% 10m Credit Expansion (end period) 4,1% 0,0% -3,1% -4,8% Oct Exports of Goods (ELSTAT.)* -17,5% 9,0% 9,8% 4,7% 9m Imports of Goods (ELSTAT.)* -20,2% -10,6% -9,2% -19,1% 9m Exports of goods and services (BOG)* -19,9% 3,5% 5,3% -1,7% 9m Imports of goods and services (BOG)* -21,4% -6,6% -5,8% -14,1% 9m Tourism Receipts -10,6% -7,6% 9,5% -2,7% 9m Tourism Arrivals (at the main airports) -7,4% -0,7% 8,4% -3,4% 10m Shipping Receipts -29,4% 13,8% -8,6% -3,4% 9m Imports of Oil -35,0% 27,4% 27,5% 4,9% 9m Imports of Ships -34,3% 7,1% -9,1% -58,2% 9m GDP growth -3,1% ( billions) -4,9% -7,1% -6,6% 9m Private Consumption -1,3% -3,6% -7,1% -8,9% 9m Residential Inventment -23,5% -18,0% -23,6% -32,0% 9m Investment in Equipment -30,3% -12,0% -38,9% -34,2% 9m Unemployment Rate (end period) 9,5% 12,5% 17,7% 26,0% Sep Employment growth -0,2% -1,9% -6,7% -8,9% Q3 New Hirings -13,4% -4,5% -11,3% -0,5% 10m Dismissals -6,7% -3,2% -4,6% -3,4% 10m Consumer Price Index 1,2% 4,7% 3,3% 1,0% Nov Core Infation 2,4% 2,4% 1,3% -0,5% Nov Economic Sentiment (end period) 75,9 Dec 65,6 Dec 75,7 Dec 79,0 Nov Consumer Confidence (end period) -44,0 Dec -75,0 Dec -81,9 Dec -74,1 Nov Business Expectations Manufacturing (end period) 71,0 Dec 71,3 Dec 70,9 Dec 80,4 Nov Construction (end period) 68,1 Dec 32,2 Dec 40,6 Dec 51,1 Nov Retail Trade (end period) 81,0 Dec 56,6 Dec 54,1 Dec 56,2 Nov Services (end period) 70,6 Dec 61,5 Dec 55,2 Dec 52,5 Nov * excluding oil and ships Source: Bank of Greece (BOG), Greek Statistical Authority (El. Stat.), IOBE

25 SEE: Fragile Global Economic Outlook Threatens Recovery Source: Central Banks, Statistical Authorities, Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Alpha Bank Research 25-20% -40% Bulgaria 40% 20% 0% Net FDI (RHS) Industrial Production - YoY% (LHS) Credit Expansion - YoY% (LHS) Remittances Q mn Romania 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Remittances Q mn Net FDI (RHS) Industrial Production (YoY%) Credit Expansion - Yoy% (LHS) Serbia GDP Growth YoY% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Remittances Jan.-Aug mn Net FDI (RHS) Industrial Production (YoY%) Credit Expansion - YoY% (LHS) 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Bulgaria Romania Serbia Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q

26 SEE: External Balance Stable But Capital Inflows Remain Weak Source: Central Banks, Statistical Authorities, Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Alpha Bank Research 26 External Balances at sustainable levels Romania Bulgaria Serbia Jan - Sep Jan - Sep Jan - Aug ( bn) Net Other C/A deficit Net FDI Serbia Foreign Romania Bulgaria investors remain selective & cautious Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FDI Inflows Other Investment Inflows Q1 Q2 Romania Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Total Inflows ( bn) 9M Gross Official Reserves / Short-term External Debt 179% 145% 149% 133% 133% Romania 2 1 Bulgaria FDI Inflows Other Investment Inflows Total Inflows 113% 0-1 Bulgaria Romania Q1 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q M 12 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Sep 2012

27 SEE: Fiscal Consolidation Continues In A Relatively Weak Growth And Stable Financial Environment Source: Central Banks, Statistical Authorities, Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Alpha Bank Research 27 Bulgaria Romania 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% HICP Inflation (LHS) BGN per EUR (RHS) Key Policy Rate (LHS) 2,15 2,11 2,06 2,02 1,98 1,93 1,89 1,84 1,80 24% 4,75 20% 4,50 16% 4,25 12% 4,00 3,75 8% 3,50 4% 3,25 0% 3, HICP Inflation (LHS) Key Policy Rate (LHS) RON per EUR (RHS) Serbia 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% CPI Inflation (LHS) RSD per EUR (RHS) Key Policy Rate (LHS) General Government Balance (in % of GDP) -2,0% -1,5% -1,5% -2,8% -2,4% -5,5% -5,0% -4,2% -6,7% e 2013f Bulgaria Romania Serbia *European Commission, Autumn 2012

28 III. Financial Review

29 29 Loan Deleveraging Continued across the board Group Loans ( billion) (8.8%) Group Retail Loans ( billion) (4.1%) Yoy % Yoy % (28.7%) (4.5%) (1.7%) (9.5%) (3.6%) Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Greece SE Europe Other Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Small Business Loans Consumer Credit Mortgages (10.9%) SEE Loans Group Wholesale Lending ( billion) (4.5%) Yoy % ( billion) (13.8%) Yoy % % (6.0%) (8.5%) (20.2%) Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Balkans Cyprus Large Corporates Medium-sized Businesses

30 30 Reversal in deposit trends in Q Customer Assets Deposits Evolution Group ( billion) ( million) Core Deposits Investment Balances (16.2%) ,263 (636) (631) (1,002) (421) (48) 9,525 Liquidity Jun. 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Sep. 12 Time Deposits: 21,220 Transaction Balances (1,165) (1,652) (545) (1,832) ,751 Jun. 11 Sep.11 Dec.11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Sight & Savings Deposits Other Mutual Funds Time Deposits Money Morket Mutual Funds Private Banking Jun. 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Sep. 12 On Balance Sheet

31 NII Impacted by Higher Funding Cost and Cost of Deposits Group Net Interest Income Group NII decomposition ( million) (26.1%) ( million) 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% Loans Deposits NIM (34) (35) (29) (47) (60) (71) Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Net Fee & Commission Income Trading Income ( million) (10.2%) ( million) (27.1) (7.5) 6.3 (18.9) Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Investment Banking & Brokerage Asset Management Commercial & Corporate Banking (12.7) (17.7) Q2 11 Q3 11 Q Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Foreign Exchange Bonds & Other 1 Adjusted for the pre-tax trading loss of 264.5mn from the recognition of the new GGBs at their market value at the date of the transaction. 31

32 IV. Segmental Report

33 Retail Lending - Demand Subdued Mortgage Balances - Greece Consumer Credit Balances - Greece ( million) (2.4%) ( million) (2.0%) 4,770 4,626 4,572 4,532 4,524 4,533 Yoy % 1,406 1,344 1,324 1,286 1,269 1,277 (5.0%) 11,253 11,192 11,106 11,032 10,969 10,925 3,365 3,282 3,248 3,246 3,254 3,256 (0.8%) Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Consumer loans Credit cards Small Business Lending Balances - Greece Comments ( million) (8.6%) 4,774 4,631 4,629 4,529 4,438 4,233 Yoy % Stricter underwriting caused housing loans rejection rate to increase to 57% from 46% a year ago 2,775 2,667 2,659 2,631 2,633 2,455 (8.0%) New production mortgages LTV at 39%, total book average LTV at 54% 1,999 1,964 1,970 1,899 1,805 1,778 (9.4%) Consumer loan rejection rate at 72% from 67% a year ago Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Credit limits up to Credit limits from to 1 mn 33

34 34 Corporate Banking Volume Reduction Medium & Large Business Loans Greece 1 Business Loans Portfolio Structure - Group ( million) (15.9%) 1 Business Loans 25.8bn Services, 8.2% Other, 7.5% Industry, 22.3% 18,383 18,172 18,449 18,042 15,773 15,279 Real Estate, 12.6% Shipping, 5.3% Trade, 23.6% Tourism, 6.7% Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Transportation, 2.7% Construction, 11.2% 1 Adjusting for the write-off of PSI loans as of 30/6/2012, yoy reduction amounts to 4.7% Shipping Loans Balances Shipping Loans Portfolio Structure ( billion) Dec. 08 Dec. 09 Dec. 10 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Dry Bulk 42% Panamax 11% Handymax/ Handy size 20% Yachts 1% Passenger 8% Containers 7% Capesize 11% VLCC 5% Suezmax 15% Product Tankers 14% Panamax 7% Aframax 1% Duration of loan portfolio at 5 years LTV at 80% Tankers 42% Zero NPLs Loans Balances USD/EUR

35 Wealth Management evolution according to developments in the Economic Environment 35 Alpha Private Bank Asset Management ( million) ( million) 3,426 (7.7%) 2,988 2,815 2,880 2,753 2,759 1,285 (18.4%) 2,007 1,677 1,556 1,610 1,568 1, , ,297 1,192 1,147 1,177 1,093 1, Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep Jun. 11 Sep. 11 Dec. 11 Mar. 12 Jun. 12 Sep. 12 Discretionary Advisory Execution Only Other AUM Non Money Market Mututal Funds Money Market Mutual Fund

36 36 SEE Accounts for c.23% of our Business SEE Represents 33% of Group Operating Income 23% of Net Loans ( billion) 23% of Group SEE, 33% Other, 1% Greece, 66% Greece Cyprus Romania Other Group 22% of Deposits Balkans Funding Gap Evolution ( billion) 22% of Group ( billion) ( 0.9bn) Greece Cyprus Romania Other Group Sep. 10 Sep. 11 Sep. 12

37 37 SEE: Deleveraging in Progress ( million) Cyprus Δ% Romania Δ% Bulgaria Δ% Serbia Δ% Albania Δ% FYROM Δ% TOTAL Δ% Sep yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy Loans 4, % 3,150 (7.5%) 804 (9.9%) 808 (15.5%) 377 (7.0%) 71 (8.8%) 9,908 (4.5%) Mortgages 2,108 (0.4%) % 162 (0.4%) % 104 (7.6%) 16 (6.1%) 3, % Consumer Credit 259 (8.9%) 211 (13.6%) 70 (15.5%) 164 (19.4%) 7 (17.8%) 25 (19.9%) 802 (11.8%) Businesses 2, % 2,051 (10.7%) 572 (11.6%) 445 (20.1%) 266 (6.5%) % 5,622 (6.3%) Deposits 2,637 (15.7%) 1,100 (13.4%) 322 (8.7%) 517 (8.8%) 450 (0.9%) % 5,156 (12.1%)

38 38 SEE: Deleveraging in Progress ( million) Cyprus Δ% Romania Δ% Bulgaria Δ% Serbia Δ% Albania Δ% FYROM Δ% TOTAL Δ% Jun yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy Loans 4, % 3,192 (9.1%) 833 (8.9%) 820 (20.6%) 385 (6.8%) 73 (10.5%) 10,012 (5.6%) Mortgages 2,112 (0.8%) % 163 (0.6%) % 108 (7.5%) 17 (4.7%) 3, % Consumer Credit 248 (13.5%) 222 (16.7%) 72 (14.9%) 169 (15.8%) 7 (23.4%) 27 (19.6%) 812 (12.2%) Businesses 2, % 2,093 (12.6%) 598 (10.2%) 453 (29.0%) 270 (6.0%) 29 (3.7%) 5,720 (7.8%) Deposits 2,685 (21.0%) 1,066 (20.7%) 315 (23.2%) 512 (12.9%) % % 5,147 (17.8%)

39 SEE: Performance Affected by Deleveraging and Impairments 39 ( million) Cyprus Δ% Romania Δ% Bulgaria Δ% Serbia Δ% Albania Δ% FYROM Δ% SE Europe Δ% Sep yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy Operating Income (11.7%) (19.7%) % 30.8 (7.3%) % 3.3 (23.3%) (8.7%) Operating Expenses (pre-o/h allocation) % 62.9 (8.5%) 23.7 (8.8%) 29.1 (14.3%) 10.2 (5.6%) % (5.4%) Impairment Losses % % 18.4 (0.5%) % 4.4 (60.5%) % % Profit Before Tax (pre- O/H allocation) (33.2) (15.7) (4.9) (68.3%) (7.6) 30.0% 0.9 (108.9%) (3.3) 72.3% (60.7) Loan Market Share 6.4% 6.3% 2.9% 4.6% 9.4% 2.0% NPL Ratio 22.2% 13.1% 24.0% 15.7% 19.1% 31.0% 18.7% +763bps Branches Employees 830 2, , ,

40 SEE: Performance Affected by Deleveraging and Impairments 40 ( million) Cyprus Δ% Romania Δ% Bulgaria Δ% Serbia Δ% Albania Δ% FYROM Δ% SE Europe Δ% Jun yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy Operating Income 87.9 (10.6%) 68.7 (26.2%) (0.4%) % 2.1 (30.1%) (9.3%) Operating Expenses (pre-o/h allocation) % 42.7 (8.5%) 16.5 (6.4%) 20.0 (12.7%) % % (4.1%) Impairment Losses % % % % % % % Profit Before Tax (pre- O/H allocation) (16.5) (16.5) (6.0) (54.0%) (5.4) (7.6%) (1.7) (54.4%) (2.5) 108.5% (46.6) Loan Market Share 6.5% 6.3% 3.1% 4.9% 9.5% 2.1% NPL Ratio 20.2% 13.0% 23.0% 15.1% 13.2% 30.5% 17.4% +817bps Branches Employees 824 2, , ,

41 V. Appendix

42 1. Group Profit & Loss

43 Alpha Bank Group ( million) 9M M 2011 % Change 9M 12/9M 11 H H % Change H1 12/H1 11 Operating Income 1, ,730.5 (38.2%) ,116.1 (40.7%) Net Interest Income 1, ,330.6 (16.4%) (11.4%) Net fee and commission income (8.5%) (7.6%) Income from Financial Operations (288.8) (276.1) 56.0 Other Income (7.6%) (29.2%) Operating Expenses (785.7) (831.9) (5.6%) (526.5) (556.3) (5.4%) Staff Costs (379.7) (403.8) (6.0%) (258.7) (270.5) (4.4%) General Expenses (337.0) (358.5) (6.0%) (222.0) (239.6) (7.3%) Depreciation and amortization expenses (69.0) (69.7) (1.0%) (45.8) (46.2) (0.9%) Impairment losses on credit risk (1,170.4) (827.4) 41.5% (720.4) (532.2) 35.4% Profit before tax (886.6) 71.1 (548.8) 27.6 Income Tax (29.5) (13.6) Net Profit / (Loss) excluding impairment on PSI eligible portfolio (711.7) 41.6 (462.4) 14.0 Impairment losses on PSI eligible portfolio 0.0 (608.1) 0.0 (538.6) Net Profit / (Loss) (711.7) (566.5) (462.4) (524.7) Net Profit/ (Loss) attributable to shareholders (711.8) (566.7) (462.4) (524.8) Net Interest Margin (net of impairment losses) 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% Cost / Income (excl. trading) 57.8% 52.0% 56.1% 52.5% Capital Adequacy Ratio (Total) 1 9.9% 12.4% 10.4% 12.2% EBA Core Tier I 1 9.0% 9.9% 9.5% 9.7% 1 Pro-forma for 2.9bn total advance from the HFSF 43

44 44 Alpha Bank Group ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and commission income Income from Financial Operations (12.7) 6.0 (282.2) Other Income Operating Expenses (259.2) (261.7) (264.8) (264.4) (275.6) (282.4) (273.9) Staff Costs (121.0) (127.8) (130.9) (132.0) (133.2) (137.0) (133.5) General Expenses (114.9) (111.0) (111.0) (109.0) (118.9) (122.7) (116.9) Depreciation and amortization expenses (23.3) (22.9) (22.9) (23.3) (23.5) (22.7) (23.5) Impairment losses on credit risk (450.0) (399.7) (320.7) (302.9) (295.2) (271.9) (260.3) Profit before tax (301.8) (207.6) (377.2) (13.9) Income Tax (6.3) (15.9) (6.3) (7.3) Net Profit / (Loss) excluding impairment on PSI eligible portfolio (249.3) (148.2) (314.2) (20.2) Impairment losses on PSI eligible portfolio (3,223.3) (69.4) (538.6) 0.0 Net Profit / (Loss) (249.3) (148.2) (314.2) (3,243.5) (41.8) (535.2) 10.5 Net Profit / (Loss) attributable to shareholders (249.3) (148.2) (314.2) (3,243.5) (41.9) (535.3) 10.5 Net Interest Margin (net of impairment losses) 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% Cost / Income (excluding trading) 61.7% 58.4% 54.0% 48.7% 51.2% 51.9% 53.1%

45 2. Business Unit Financials

46 46 Group Results by Business Unit ( million) Retail Commercial & Corporate SE Europe Investment Banking & Treasury Asset Management Other Group Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Operating Income (158.4) (348.7) , ,730.5 Net Interest Income (215.1) , ,330.6 Net fee and Commission Income (0.5) (0.4) Income from Financial Operations (369.6) (12.3) (288.8) Other Income Operating Expenses (394.8) (414.4) (94.9) (101.1) (216.2) (228.7) (15.7) (21.0) (20.1) (23.9) (44.1) (42.8) (785.7) (831.9) Staff Costs (186.3) (198.0) (62.6) (66.2) (97.4) (102.8) (8.7) (10.6) (11.2) (11.8) (13.4) (14.3) (379.7) (403.8) General Expenses (180.6) (188.2) (23.8) (27.3) (96.3) (101.4) (6.1) (9.3) (7.6) (10.5) (22.7) (21.8) (337.0) (358.5) Depreciation (27.8) (28.3) (8.5) (7.6) (22.5) (24.5) (0.9) (1.1) (1.3) (1.5) (7.9) (6.7) (69.0) (69.7) Impairment Losses (523.0) (340.4) (427.2) (295.5) (220.3) (191.6) (760.1) (1,170.4) (1,587.5) Profit / (Loss) before tax (193.2) (13.5) (49.2) 18.9 (88.1) (38.8) (174.2) (392.7) (781.3) (886.6) (689.0) Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital (24%) (2%) (5%) 2% (18%) (7%) (66%) 37% 21% 26% (34%) (24%) Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) 55% 56% 20% 25% 64% 63% (7%) 131% 79% 68% 210% 126% 58% 52%

47 47 Group Results by Business Unit ( million) Retail Commercial & Corporate SE Europe Investment Banking & Treasury Asset Management Other Group Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Jan-Jun Operating Income (69.5) (317.6) ,116.1 Net Interest Income (112.2) Net fee and Commission Income (0.4) (0.6) Income from Financial Operations (330.9) (12.7) (276.1) 56.0 Other Income (0.0) Operating Expenses (265.3) (278.7) (63.9) (65.9) (146.9) (151.9) (10.6) (14.5) (13.7) (16.6) (26.0) (28.7) (526.5) (556.3) Staff Costs (127.3) (133.0) (42.5) (44.3) (66.1) (68.2) (6.0) (7.3) (7.7) (7.9) (9.1) (9.8) (258.7) (270.5) General Expenses (119.6) (127.0) (15.6) (16.6) (65.5) (67.5) (4.0) (6.5) (5.1) (7.7) (12.2) (14.4) (222.0) (239.6) Depreciation (18.4) (18.8) (5.8) (5.0) (15.3) (16.3) (0.6) (0.7) (0.9) (1.0) (4.7) (4.5) (45.8) (46.2) Impairment Losses (315.3) (197.7) (262.1) (214.6) (143.0) (119.9) (673.3) (720.4) (1,205.5) Profit / (Loss) before tax (93.3) 12.0 (11.3) (6.9) (65.3) (24.0) (80.1) (343.6) (692.1) (584.8) (645.7) Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital (17%) 2% (2%) (1%) (19%) (6%) (45%) 27% 26% 26% (21%) (22%) Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) 55% 57% 21% 24% 67% 64% (10%) 78% 79% 68% 195% 127% 56% 52%

48 48 Retail Business Unit: Results ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations Other Income Operating Expenses (129.5) (130.3) (135.0) (129.7) (135.7) (141.3) (137.4) Staff Costs (59.0) (62.8) (64.5) (63.4) (65.0) (67.1) (65.9) General Expenses (61.0) (58.3) (61.3) (57.1) (61.2) (64.9) (62.0) Depreciation (9.4) (9.2) (9.2) (9.2) (9.5) (9.3) (9.5) Impairment losses (207.7) (159.0) (156.3) (125.9) (142.7) (117.9) (79.8) Profit / (Loss) before tax (99.9) (46.6) (46.7) 9.4 (25.5) (11.4) 23.4 RWA 13,101 13,264 13,422 13,778 14,175 14,279 14,356 Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital (38.1%) (17.6%) (17.4%) 3.4% (9.0%) (4.0%) 8.2% Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) 54.9% 54.2% 55.5% 49.3% 54.1% 57.3% 57.5%

49 49 Commercial & Corporate Business Unit: Results ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations Other Income (0.9) Operating Expenses (31.0) (31.1) (32.8) (29.7) (35.2) (34.2) (31.7) Staff Costs (20.1) (20.7) (21.8) (22.6) (21.9) (22.8) (21.5) General Expenses (8.2) (7.6) (7.9) (4.1) (10.7) (8.9) (7.7) Depreciation (2.7) (2.8) (3.0) (3.1) (2.6) (2.4) (2.5) Impairment losses (165.0) (162.3) (99.8) (114.5) (80.9) (94.3) (120.3) Profit / (Loss) before tax (37.9) (30.5) (19.6) RWA 16,247 16,402 16,507 17,016 17,626 17,762 17,809 Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital (11.7%) (9.3%) 5.8% 1.9% 7.3% 3.6% (5.5%) Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) 19.7% 19.6% 21.7% 20.1% 25.0% 24.4% 24.2%

50 50 Asset Management Business Unit: Results ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations Other Income (0.0) Operating Expenses (6.5) (6.8) (6.9) (6.8) (7.2) (7.9) (8.7) Staff Costs (3.6) (3.8) (3.8) (3.7) (3.9) (3.9) (4.0) General Expenses (2.4) (2.5) (2.6) (2.5) (2.8) (3.5) (4.1) Depreciation (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) Impairment losses Profit / (Loss) before tax RWA Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital 12.2% 38.2% 14.0% 19.9% 25.1% 27.1% 25.4% Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) 81.2% 81.4% 76.1% 69.0% 66.9% 66.5% 69.4%

51 Investment Banking & Treasury Business Unit: Results 51 ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income (89.0) (60.2) (9.3) (3.3) Net Interest Income (102.9) (82.7) (29.4) (8.5) (3.9) Net fee and Commission Income (2.2) Income from Financial Operations Other Income Operating Expenses (5.1) (5.2) (5.5) (5.9) (6.5) (7.1) (7.4) Staff Costs (2.7) (2.9) (3.1) (3.0) (3.3) (3.5) (3.8) General Expenses (2.0) (2.0) (2.1) (2.7) (2.8) (3.3) (3.2) Depreciation (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) Profit / (Loss) before tax (94.1) (65.3) (14.8) (9.2) RWA 4,250 4,390 4,470 4,695 4,936 5,078 5,309 Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital (110.7%) (74.4%) (16.5%) (9.8%) 56.8% 18.0% 35.7% Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) (4.9%) (6.4%) (21.3%) (96.4%) (261.7%) 68.3% 91.7%

52 52 SE Europe Business Unit: Results ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations 8.1 (0.5) Other Income Operating Expenses (69.2) (76.2) (70.7) (78.3) (76.8) (76.8) (75.0) Staff Costs (31.2) (32.9) (33.2) (34.6) (34.7) (34.7) (33.5) General Expenses (30.8) (35.5) (30.0) (35.8) (33.9) (34.2) (33.3) Depreciation (7.2) (7.8) (7.5) (8.0) (8.3) (8.0) (8.3) Impairment losses (77.3) (78.4) (64.6) (62.5) (71.6) (59.7) (60.2) Profit / (Loss) before tax (22.8) (41.8) (23.5) (18.6) (14.8) (8.8) (15.2) RWA 8,141 8,351 8,515 8,920 9, ,810 Risk Adjusted Return on 8% Regulatory Capital (14.0%) (25,0%) (13.8%) (10.4%) (7.8%) (4.5%) (7.8%) Cost / Income Ratio (excl. trading) 59.9% 67.2% 65.9% 65.1% 60.8% 63.1% 64.8%

53 53 Other Business Unit: Results ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income (31.1) (17.8) (299.8) Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income (0.2) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) Income from Financial Operations (38.7) (25.7) (305.3) (3.5) (9.3) Other Income Operating Expenses (18.0) (12.1) (14.0) (13.9) (14.1) (15.0) (13.7) Staff Costs (4.3) (4.6) (4.5) (4.8) (4.5) (5.1) (4.7) General Expenses (10.4) (5.2) (7.1) (6.9) (7.4) (7.8) (6.6) Depreciation (3.2) (2.3) (2.4) (2.2) (2.3) (2.2) (2.3) Impairment losses (4,028.8) (86.8) (673.3) 0.0 Profit / (Loss) before tax (49.1) (29.8) (313.8) (4,034.2) (89.2) (679.0) (13.1) RWA

54 54 Investor Relations Contacts Mr. Vassilios Psaltis General Manager and CFO Mr. Dimitrios Kostopoulos Manager Investor Relations Division Ms. Elena Katopodi Assistant Manager Investor Relations Division Mr. Michael Massourakis Senior Manager Economic Research Division Mr. Dimitrios Maroulis Manager Economic Research Division Ms. Stella Traka Investor Relations Officer ALPHA BANK 40, Stadiou Street, Athens, Greece Internet Reuters Bloomberg : : ACBr.AT : ALPHA GA