Corporate presentation. June 2018
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1 Corporate presentation June 2018
2 Important Notice Forward Looking Information No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from the Group s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group s view only as of the date hereof. 1 Legal
3 Table of Contents 1 Overview 2 Financial Highlights 3 Profitability 4 Asset Quality 5 Liquidity 6 Macro 7 Appendix I Appendix II: Financials
4 Overview 1
5 Comprehensive strategy to tap the Greek recovery potential Utilize high coverage to work through NPLs Deploy liquidity to support the recovery of the Greek economy Improve profitability to allow for strong organic capital generation 4 Overview
6 Successfully completed all major strategic objectives since the 2015 recapitalization Consistently delivering on all strategic objectives E 2015 Recapitalization following the AQR results Restructuring plan approval by EC Revised strategy and changed leadership Completed divestments of FB, Astir & PE funds in line with the restructuring plan Increased loan loss coverage to the highest levels among peers Set the basis for OPEX reduction Optimized collateral and liquidity management Significantly improved financial performance across key metrics Exceeded NPE and NPL reduction targets FY.17 Group cppi increases by +4% yoy FY.17 Group OpEx declines by 6% yoy Exceeded 2017 NPE reduction targets by more than 0.83 b Divestments of UBB & Vojvo enhance further capital and liquidity position ELA elimination 1.5b loan disbursements to corporates Successful ST result on the back of high CET Return to profitability on the back of substantially lower CoR vs high levels of 2017 Liquidity to be channeled towards healthy corporates, c 2.5b in new corporate disbursements Enhancing outperformance buffer on NPE reduction Complete divestments of Insurance business and SEE subs 5 Overview
7 Positioning to take advantage of gradual economic recovery in the following years Medium Term Strategic objectives A Aid pre provision income growth B Improve asset quality C Normalize the liquidity position - Satisfy healthy corporate credit demand induced by a growing economic environment, benefiting NIM through mix improvement and NII through levering up - Capitalize on leading debit card position to increase POS fees as well as e-banking transaction fees and lending related fees - Utilize high coverage to work through NPE reduction over and above the targets agreed with the SSM - Achieve all asset quality KPIs agreed with SSM - Increase restructuring efforts, containing re-defaults - Establish a sizable and recurring presence in the primary wholesale funding markets - Capitalize on leading brand name to attract deposit inflows - Further staff cost reduction to improve efficiency - Utilize closure measures to allow for effective signaling towards strategic defaulters 6 Overview
8 FY15 1 1Q16 2 2Q16 3 3Q16 4 4Q16 5 1Q17 6 2Q17 7 3Q17 8 4Q17 9 1Q18 10 FY18 11 FY19 NPEs decline for 8 straight quarters adding up to a reduction of 5b; 1Q18 NPE stock 0.9b lower vs SSM target Bank NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) ( b) 2017 NPE operational performance ahead of targets NPEs Q.18 target exceeded by 0.9b Operational targets submitted to the SSM commit to a reduction of NPLs and NPEs by 7.5b and 8.4b over the period , equal to a reduction of c.50% and c.40% respectively Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NPL and NPE ratios will have been reduced by c.15ppts, with NPE coverage above 50% Reduction of 5.0b to date, is in part due to negative NPE formation (- 1.8b) and due to write offs (- 3.2b) NPLs Remaining NPE reduction at 3.4b ( b) 21.5 Total targeted: - 8.4b FY15 Done Remaining FY19 NPE reduction target 7 Overview
9 NBG stands out in asset quality Peer Group 1 : NPE & Coverage (Group) 56% 52% Peer Group 1 : 90dpd & Coverage (Group) Peer Group 1 : net NPLs/TBV (Group) NPE ratio 43% 42% 36% 35% 90dpd ratio 31% 33% TBV ( b) Coverage ratio 60% 51% 50% 56% Coverage ratio 83% 80% 73% 71% Unprovided NPLs ( b) 0.45x 0.77x 0.66x 0.96x Texas ratio 2 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 1. Latest available data, including IFRS9 impact 2. Texas ratio=net NPLs/TBV 8 Overview
10 P/TBV Asset quality developments correlate with valuations NBG Bank NPE stock vs P/TBV 4Q16-1Q18 P/TBV vs unprovided NPLs / TBV latest* NPE stock ( b) - 0.2b - 0.3b - 0.2b - 0.7b b NBG 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 P/TBV (x) Alpha Eurobank Piraeus 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q Unprovided NPLs/TBV *Mkt prices as at July 9 th, Overview
11 CET1 ratio at 16.5%, comfortably above regulatory requirements CET 1 ratio IFRS 9 CET1 evolution 17.0% 16.5% 17.0% (0.5%) (0.2%) 16.3% 0.2% 16.5% 13.0% OCR: % DTC: 4.7b 9.375% CET1: 9.375% CET1: 6.3bn CET1: 6.0bn 4Q17 1Q Regulatory Requirement 4Q17 CET1 IFRS9 impact CRR FL 4Q17 CET1 pf 1Q18 CET1 evolution CET1 1Q18 CET1 FL 1Q18 RWAs ( bn) Overview
12 Superior liquidity gives NBG the opportunity to reclaim profitable market share in the corporate segment Domestic L:D ratio (%) 1Q18 ELA exposure ( b) latest available Alpha Eurobank Piraeus NBG Current cash buffer Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Corporate loans market shares 1Q18 NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank Total & Core deposit market shares 1Q18 Gross Loans 18.9% Performing Loans 23.0% 35.0% 28.3% 25.5% 25.8% 22.9% 20.6% Total deposits Core deposits 31.2% 30.5% 30.8% 28.3% 22.3% 21.0% 19.0% 17.1% NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank 11 Overview
13 Financial Highlights 2
14 NBG NPE reduction 0.9 ahead of the 1Q SSM target; imminent loan sale will accelerate performance Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Domestic NPE stock reduction continues for 8 straight quarters NPE reduction continues in 1Q, with the stock reduced by 0.8b, reflecting negative formation of 0.1b and write offs of 0.7b, fully provided Key Ratios - Group Liquidity 1Q18 FY17 9M17 1Q17 Net NPE reduction achieved since end-2015 at 5.0b, exceeds FY.17 SSM target by 0.9b; reduction is attributable to negative NPE formation of - 1.8b, with the remainder realized from write offs NPE and NPL coverage at sector leading levels of 60% and 84%, combined with the lowest NPL and NPE levels in Greece ELA has been safely eliminated Domestic deposits stabilized in 1Q despite a seasonally strong 4Q17, when deposits had increased by 1.7b Superior liquidity position and lowest funding cost among local peers, put NBG in an advantageous position to satisfy accelerating corporate credit demand in 2018 as corporate disbursements exceeded 0.5b per quarter in 4Q17 and 1Q18, a post crisis record CET1 ratio at 16.5% IFRS9 CET1 at 16.5% incorporating IFRS9 phase in impact of 50bps and the CRD IV FL impact of 16bps CET1 ratio factors in BROM and Albania capital losses Loans-to-Deposits ratio 1 76% 77% 83% 87% ELA exposure ( b) Profitability NIM (bps) Cost-to-income 61% 58% 58% 49% Asset quality NPE ratio 42.7% 43.7% 45.2% 45.0% NPE coverage ratio 60.2% 61.2% 55.7% 55.9% Cost of Risk (bps) Capital CET1 ratio CRD IV FL 16.5% 16.7% 16.6% 15.8% RWAs ( bn) FY17 restated for IFRS9 FTA 13 Highlights
15 NBG is back in the black: 1Q18 PAT from continued operations at 20m P&L Highlights Group P&L 1Q18 group PAT from continued operations at 20m vs losses of 60m in 4Q17, reflects: A reduction in group core income (-10% qoq) driven by lower NII (-11% qoq) and Fees (-5%); NII drop is due to the once off impact of IFRS9 FTA, additional restructurings and sustained deleveraging on the retail book, with corporate balances remaining stable Non core income stood at 25m vs 21m in Q4.17 adjusted for the Titlos reclassification Lower group OpEx aided by seasonality in 4Q17 (-7% qoq or +1% yoy) Credit risk charges dropping by 40% qoq, translating into a CoR ratio of 156bps vs 249bps in 4Q; a level expected to be reduced further going forward m 1Q18 1Q17 YoY 4Q17 QoQ NII % % Net Fees & Commissions % 65-5% Core Income % % Trading & other income % % Income % 410-8% Operating Expenses (231) (228) +1% (248) -7% Core PPI % % PPI % % Provisions (120) (233) -49% (200) -40% Operating Profit 25 4 >100% (38) n/m Other impairments 1 (7) n/m (19) n/m PBT 26 (3) n/m (57) n/m Taxes (6) (6) -9% (4) +66% PAT (cont. ops) 20 (9) n/m (60) n/m PAT (discont. ops) % (200) n/m Minorities (10) (9) +11% (5) >100% PAT >100% (265) n/m 14 Highlights
16 Profitability 3
17 Despite NII pressure from IFRS9 FTA 1, 1Q18 operating profit reaches 25m, driven by normalizing credit risk charges Group PPI by region ( m) Group PPI bridge ( m) SEE QoQ -10.4% 162 NII drop reflects IFRS9 FTA, deleveraging and restructuring impacts % Greece % Q17 1Q18 4Q17 ΔNII Δfees Δnon core income ΔOpEx 1Q18 Group NII & NIM ( m) Group Operating margin 2 (bps) Group Operating Profit ( m) Group PPI margin (bps) Group CoR (bps) Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 NII ( m) NIM (bps) Group operating margin (bps) Q17 1Q18 1. First time adoption 2. PPI margin & CoR are calculated over net loans 16 Profitability
18 IFRS9 FTA adjust NII and NIM to lower levels; continued deleveraging in 1Q adds to the pressure Greece Domestic NII breakdown Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Loans Deposits Bonds Eurosystem & wholesale Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 NII ( m) NIM (bps) Evolution of domestic net loans ( b) Subs & other Total Domestic NII evolution ( m) reduction of 1.1b in eop net balances, due to IFRS9 FTA and 0.3b due to retail book deleveraging Q17 Mortgages Consumer SBLs Corporate 1Q18 4Q17 Loans Unwind Bonds Eur/stem & wholesale Subs & other 1Q18 17 Profitability
19 Domestic deposits remain flat qoq, despite positive seasonality in 4Q (+ 1.7b qoq) Greek deposit yields (bps) Greek deposits evolution ( b) % 69% 70% 71% 68% Core deposits/total +6.5% yoy Time Time Total Sight & other Core Savings Market share at 36% 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 18 Profitability
20 Encouraging signs of corporate credit demand picking up, lead to disbursements of 1.1 in 4Q.17 and 1Q.18 Greek lending yields 1 (bps) Greek loan evolution ( b) Consumer Lending yield (bps) Net loans Performing loans SBLs % qoq Corporate Corporate SBL Consumer Mortgages Mortgages 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1: Calculated on performing loans including FNPEs<90dpd 19 Profitability
21 1Q18 domestic fee income up by +5% yoy, driven by Pillar II savings Group fee income by region incl. ELA fees ( m) Domestic fees excl. ELA fees ( m) 0.38% 0.44% 0.43% Fees/Assets 1 ELA cost YoY Total SEE & Other % -8% Fund mgm, Brokerage & other Wholesale Banking Fees Greece % Retail Banking Fees Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1: Excluding assets held for sale 20 Profitability
22 1Q18 domestic costs +1% yoy / -7% qoq; Greek headcount at 9.8K vs 15.0K pre crisis Group OpEx by category ( m) Domestic cost-to-income evolution Greece Group 1Q18 1Q17 yoy 1Q18 1Q17 yoy Personnel % % 58% 60% 61% G&As % % Depreciation % % Total % % FY17 4Q17 1Q18 Domestic OpEx evolution ( m) Headcount evolution ( 000) G&A & other SEE & Other Staff Greece Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 FY09 1 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1. Excludes Ethniki Insurance, UBB, BROM, Vojvo & NBG Albania employees 21 Profitability
23 Asset quality 4
24 Consistently negative NPE formation, pre write offs Domestic NPE stock per category 1Q18 ( b) Domestic NPE stock movement ( b) FNPE & other impaired dpd Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Domestic NPE stock evolution ( b) NPE* flows ( m, SSM perimeter) NPE ratio % 45.2% 45.3% 44.1% 43.1% FNPEs & other impaired 90dpd NPE inflows NPE outflows Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Recoveries, liquidations & other Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1 FY17 restated for IFRS9 23 Asset quality
25 Negative NPE formation (pre write offs) continues in all books except mortgages Mortgages ( m) Consumer ( m) NPE formation* ( m) Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 SBLs ( m) Corporate ( m) Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 * SSM perimeter 24 Asset quality
26 Negative 90dpd formation in 1Q is driven by corporates Mortgages ( m) Consumer ( m) Domestic 90dpd formation ( m) Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 SBLs ( m) Corporate ( m) Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 25 Asset quality
27 Lowest 90dpd and NPE ratios in Greece, combine with the highest cash coverage especially following IFRS9 FTA Domestic 90dpd ratios Domestic 90dpd NPE bridge ( bn) Collateral coverage 1 73% 11% 55% 51% 57% 34% 38% 115% 59% 91% 21% 30.9% 31.0% SEE & other: 90dpd ratio: 32% Coverage: 63% Cash coverage 53% 119% 84.0% 82.9% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group 90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE Other impaired NPEs Domestic NPE ratios and coverage Domestic forborne stock ( bn) Collateral coverage 1 75% 12% 57% 53% 59% 44% 47% 94% 68% 78% 36% 43.1% 42.7% SEE & other: NPE ratio: 35% Coverage: 57% FPE FNPE<30 dpd 3.2 Cash coverage 68% 60.4% 60.2% 41% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group FNPE >90dpd 2.9 FNPE 31-90dpd 1.1 LLAs/ Gross loans 18% 44% 53% 25% 26% 1. Cash provisions incorporate additional haircuts on the market value of collateral to account for the prospect of distressed sale; all numbers bank level 26 Asset quality
28 S3 loan exposure lower by 0.9b qoq, coverage at 55.8% (Group) Loan staging and evolution ( b) S3 ratios and coverage (%) Δ S Ratio 43.6% 42.6% S Coverage 57.7% 55.8% S S2 ratios and coverage (%) Total NPE (%) Ratio 43.7% 42.7% Ratio 18.1% 19.6% Coverage 61.2% 60.2% Coverage 7.1% 7.1% Asset quality
29 Liquidity 5
30 Total Eurosystem exposure reduced by c. 20b; ELA reduced by c. 16b; on the back of the divestment plan, interbank access and deleveraging Eurosystem and Interbank funding evolution (all amounts in bn and cash equivalents) ECB ELA Interbank Jun Sep-15 Collateral optimization Interbank funding -4,0bn Eurosystem exposure Sinepia +0,3bn cash Waiver 8.2 Reinstatement Pillars cancellation Correlated assets repos -1,2bn Eurosystem exposure Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar Jun-17 Increase of correlated assets repos Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Key drivers of ELA elimination: Jun-17 Market access through interbank repos transactions ( 3.0b) & bond issuance ( 0.75b) Divestments proceeds ( 3.5b) Deposit inflows ( 2.4b) Loan deleveraging ( 3.3b) 29 Liquidity
31 Best in class liquidity and lowest cost of funding place NBG at an advantageous position vs peers to satisfy demand for credit from healthy corporates Peer group analysis: liquidity position (Group) Peer Group: Domestic funding cost 2 ELA/ Assets 1 0% 2% 5% 7% % 0.54% 0.70% 0.69% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Domestic L:D ratio evolution NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 NBG domestic deposit flows per quarter ( b) Peer domestic L:D ratio 3 141% 138% 134% 131% 131% 128% 124% 119% % NBG Greece 91% 91% 89% 86% 87% 85% 83% 79% 75% 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 L/D ratio provides upside for selective credit growth Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q b b 1: Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds 2: Estimated based on latest available funding balances & yields 3: Peer average data excluding NBG, based on latest available data 30 Liquidity
32 Macro 6
33 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May :Q1 2006:Q4 2007:Q3 2008:Q2 2009:Q1 2009:Q4 2010:Q3 2011:Q2 2012:Q1 2012:Q4 2013:Q3 2014:Q2 2015:Q1 2015:Q4 2016:Q3 2017:Q2 2018:Q1 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Activity is gaining strength in the run-up to the completion of the 3rd programme Economic sentiment & real GDP growth PMI & Capacity utilization y-o-y index May Index % GDP growth (left axis) EC Economic sentiment indicator (right axis) PMI, deviat. from 50 (left axis) Capacity utilization (right axis) Retail sales & consumer confidence Greece: Business confidence indicators y-o-y index Index Retail sales (volume, y-o-y, left axis) Consumer confidence (index, right axis) Industrial (left axis) Retail (left axis) Services (left axis) Construction (right axis) Sources: EL.STAT., EU Commission & PMI Markit 32 Macro
34 22/11/17 1/12/17 10/12/17 19/12/17 28/12/17 6/1/18 15/1/18 24/1/18 2/2/18 11/2/18 20/2/18 1/3/18 10/3/18 19/3/18 28/3/18 6/4/18 15/4/18 24/4/18 3/5/18 12/5/18 21/5/18 30/5/18 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18* e 2018f Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Fiscal overperformance continues, albeit financial market volatility increased Greece: Gen. Gov. Primary balance (as % of GDP) State budget Primary balance (as % of GDP) % GDP surplus *excluding SMP & ANFA revenue % GDP deficit Gen.Gov. total balance Gen.Gov. primary balance Primary balance (Programme target) Primary balance (Budget 2018) 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* Greek Sovereign, corporate bond yields & stock market Greek Government bond yields Index % % Italy FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap (left axis) 10yr Greek Government bond yield (right axis) Greek non-financial corp. bond yield (BoG Composite Index, right axis) *as of May 30, m T-bill 5yr GGB 7yr GGB 10yr GGB 10yr Italian GB Sources: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, Bloomberg, PDMA, EU Commission & NBG estimates 33 Macro
35 Q1 H2:2009 H1:2010 H2:2010 H1:2011 H2:2011 H1:2012 H2:2012 H1:2013 H2:2013 H1:2014 H2:2014 H1:2015 H2:2015 H1:2016 H2:2016 H1:2017 H2:2017 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 The labor market and export activity entered 2018 in high gear and the real estate market is stabilizing LFS Employment & ERGANI net flows Trade of goods and services annual flow, thsnd persons thousand persons 3,80 3,75 3,70 3,65 3, y-o-y, 12m m.a. y-o-y, 12m m.a Net hiring (ERGANI data, s.a., annual flow, thsnd persons, 3m m.a., left axis) Employment (LFS s.a. data, thsnd persons, 3m m.a., right axis) Exports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis) Imports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis) Total services receipts (12m m.a., right axis) Tourism: Arrivals & Revenue (excluding cruises) Real estate prices (y-o-y) y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y 2017 Q4: -0.3% y-o-y Tourist arrivals (excl. cruises, y-o-y) Tourism receipts (excl. cruises, y-o-y) Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y) House prices (total, y-o-y) Sources: EL.STAT., Greek Ministry of Labour, EU Commission, Bank of Greece & NBG estimates 34 Macro
36 Appendix I 7
37 NBG delivery of medium term targets envisaged in the 2015 capital raise A) Funding Cost Improvement Greece 2Q15 1Q18 Δ Time deposits repricing (bps) Reduction of ELA ( b) Elimination of Pillar bonds ( b) Deposit inflows ( b) C) Efficiency Improvement B) Business Mix Optimization & Income growth Gross Corporate loans / Total loans (%) D) CoR Evolution Greece 2Q15 1 1Q18 3 Δ bps Lending yield 2 (bps) Net Interest Income ( m) Net Interest Margin (bps) Fee Income / Assets (bps) Greece 2Q15 1 1Q18 3 Δ # of employees (in 000s) Employee wage bill ( m, ann.) Greece FY14A FY17A 1Q18A CoR (bps) P&L charge ( m, annualized) 1, Q15 figures include the Ethniki Insurance Company 2. Down due to restructuring impact 3. Excludes the Ethniki Insurance company agreed to be sold 4. Expected NBG inflows in the 2 years following the imposition of capital controls at c. 3-4b, actual experienced at 3.0b 36 Appendix I
38 Capital controls framework Cash withdrawal limit 100% of cash deposited after can be withdrawn 840 equivalent per fortnight per customer (applicable up to ) equivalent per month per customer (applicable from ) equivalent per month per customer (applicable from equivalent per month per customer (applicable from Purchase of Greek mutual funds Allowed New account opening Allowed for existing (as of ) customers Subject to specific criteria, e.g. primary payroll account, for new customers Greek capital market instruments Allowed Additional account beneficiary Allowed for existing (as of ) customers Prohibited for new customers Foreign investments liquidation Proceeds can be re-invested Transfers from abroad 100% of incoming funds can be re-transferred abroad 10% of incoming funds received before can be withdrawn 30% of incoming funds received between and can be withdrawn 50% of incoming funds received after can be withdrawn Change of Custodian Bank Prohibited when changing to foreign custodian Outgoing wire transfers abroad Private individuals can transfer up to 1,000 per month Trade related payments < 350k approval at bank level Weekly limit for bank-level committee at 112mn > 350k approval by the Banking Transactions Approval Committee Time deposit break Allowed Early loan repayment Allowed 37 Appendix I
39 RWA Evolution Asset-liability mix Evolution of RWAs ( b) Asset mix ( b) Liability mix ( b) 61.8 Planned Divestments Interbank placements; 1.9 Securities; 7.0 EFSF/ESM bonds; Cash; 3.3 Interbank liabil, 4.8 ECB, 2.8 Savings; Domestic net loans; 28.9 Current & Sight; 7.7 Domestic deposits 38.4 SEE & Other net loans, 1.7 Time & Other; 12.2 DTA, 4.9 Other, 12.7 SEE & Other deposits; 1.9 Other Liabil; 7.3 Total equity and minorities; 5.2 Debt securities; 1.2 RWAs 2015 RWAs 2016 RWAs Q18 Assets Liabilities 38 Appendix I
40 NBG Shareholder structure as at July 2018 Domestic pension funds & other 0.3% Domestic retail investors 6.9% Domestic inst. investors 2.1% HFSF 40.4% Int'l Institutionals 49.1% Domestic private & public entitieslegal entities 1.2% Domestic investors: 10.5% 39 Appendix I
41 Appendix II: Financials
42 Group Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet Group P&L Group m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 Cash & Reserves Interbank placements Securities Loans (Gross) Provisions (10 439) (11 135) (10 868) (10 937) (11 144) Goodwill & intangibles Tangible assets DTA Other assets Assets held for sale Total assets Interbank liabilities Due to customers Debt securities Other liabilities Hybrids Liabilities held for sale Minorities Equity Total liabilities and equity m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 NII Net fees Core Income Trading & other income (39) (29) 39 Income Operating Expenses (231) (248) (237) (229) (228) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (120) (200) (155) (200) (233) Operating Profit 25 (38) (42) (38) 4 Other impairments 1 (19) 3 (1) (7) PBT 26 (57) (39) (39) (3) Taxes (6) (4) (6) (10) (6) PAT (cont. ops) 20 (60) (44) (49) (9) PAT (discount. ops) 24 (200) 20 (100) 31 Minorities (10) (5) (10) (7) (9) PAT 34 (265) (35) (156) Appendix II
43 Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other Greece SEE & Other m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 NII Net fees Core Income Trading & other income (39) (29) 41 Income Operating Expenses (213) (228) (219) (211) (210) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (121) (189) (151) (199) (232) Operating Profit 13 (36) (48) (48) (5) Other impairments 1 (16) 4 (1) (7) PBT 14 (52) (44) (49) (11) Taxes (4) (3) (4) (8) (5) PAT (cont. ops) 10 (55) (49) (57) (16) PAT (discount. ops) Minorities (9) (4) (10) (7) (9) PAT 26 (43) (40) (42) 12 m 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 NII Net fees Core Income Trading & other income (1) Income Operating Expenses (18) (20) (19) (18) (18) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions 1 (11) (4) (0) (1) Operating Profit 12 (2) Other impairments (0) (3) (0) (1) (0) PBT 12 (5) Taxes (1) (0) (1) (2) (2) PAT (cont. ops) 11 (5) Appendix II
44 Definition of financial data & ratios used Name Abbreviation Definition Common Equity / Book Value Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Fully Loaded Equity attributable to NBG shareholders less minorities (non-controlling interests) and contingent convertible BV securities (CoCos) CET1 capital as defined by Regulation No 575/2013, with the application of the regulatory transitional CET1 ratio, CRD IV FL arrangements for IFRS9 impact (for 1Q.18) over RWAs Core Deposits - Consists of current, sight and other deposits, as well as savings accounts, and exclude repos and time deposits Core Income CI Net Interest Income ( NII ) + Net fee and commission income + Earned premia net of claims and commissions Core Operating Result (Profit / (Loss)) - Core income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Core Operating Margin - Core operating profit / (loss) annualized over average net loans Core Pre-Provision Income Core PPI Core Income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Core Pre-Provision Margin Core PPI margin Core PPI annualized over average net loans Cost of Risk / Provisioning Rate CoR Credit provisions of the period annualized over average net loans Cost-to-Core Income Ratio C:CI Operating expenses over core Income Cost-to-Income Ratio C:I Operating expenses over total income Deposit Yields - Annualized interest expense on deposits over deposit balances Forborne - Forborne Non-Performing Exposures Forborne Performing Exposures Funding cost/cost of funding - FNPEs FPEs Exposures for which forbearance measures have been extended according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures Exposures with forbearance measures that meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures Exposures with forbearance measures that do not meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures and forborne exposures under probation period The blended cost of deposits, ECB refinancing, repo transactions, ELA funding (until late November 2017), as well as covered bonds and securitization transactions Gross Loans - Loans and advances to customers before allowance for impairment Loan Yield - Annualized loan interest income over gross performing loan balances Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D Net loans over total deposits, period end 43 Appendix II
45 Definition of financial data & ratios used Name Abbreviation Definition Net Interest Margin NIM NII annualized over average interest earning assets Net Loans - Loans and advances to customers Net Profit / (Loss) - Profit / (loss) for the period attributable to NBG equity shareholders Non-Performing Exposures NPEs Non-Performing Exposures Coverage Ratio NPE coverage Non-performing exposures are defined according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non- Performing Exposures as exposures that satisfy either or both of the following criteria: a) Material exposures which are more than 90 days past due b) The debtor is assessed as unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full without realization of collateral, regardless of the existence of any past due amount or of the number of days past due. Stock of provisions (allowance for impairment for loans and advances to customers) over non-performing exposures, excluding loans mandatorily classified as FVTPL,period end Non-Performing Exposures Ratio NPE ratio Non-performing exposures over gross loans, period end Non-Performing Loans NPLs Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more 90 Days Past Due Coverage Ratio Stock of provisions over loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more excluding loans 90dpd coverage mandatorily classified as FVTPL, period end 90 Days Past Due Formation Net increase / (decrease) of loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, before write-offs and 90dpd formation after restructurings 90 Days Past Due Ratio 90dpd ratio Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more over gross loans, period end Operating Expenses OpEx, costs Personnel expenses + General, administrative and other operating expenses ( G&As ) + Depreciation and amortisation on investment property, property & equipment and software & other intangible assets Operating Profit / (Loss) - Total income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Pre-Provision Income PPI Total income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Profit / (loss) after tax PAT (cont. ops) Profit / (loss) for the period from continuing operations Risk Weighted Assets RWAs Assets and off-balance-sheet exposures, weighted according to risk factors based on Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 Tangible Equity / Book Value TBV Common equity less goodwill & intangibles (goodwill, software and other intangible assets) Total deposits - Due to customers 44 Appendix II
46 Paul Mylonas Acting CEO Ioannis Kyriakopoulos Group CFO Greg Papagrigoris Head of IR Maria Kanellopoulou Investor Relations Ilias Katsikalis Investor Relations This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.
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