Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers the Difficult Way Ahead

Transcription

1 Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers the Difficult Way Ahead Nondas Nicolaides Vice President - Senior Credit Office EMEA Banking 9 November, 2017

2 Agenda 1. Moody s rating methodology and Greek banks ratings coverage 2. Focus on NPE reduction and recoveries; the primary challenge 3. Comfortable regulatory capital, but quality is weak 4. Despite significant funding improvements, liquidity remains tight amid capital controls 5. Marginal profitability expected in Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

3 1 Moody s rating methodology and Greek banks ratings coverage

4 Moody s Bank Methodology Overview Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

5 Greek banks ratings coverage Name Consolidated reported total assets ( Billion as of June 2017) Market share (commercial banks total assets) Long-Term bank deposit rating and outlook Baseline Credit Assessment» Despite similar bank ratings, there are differences among banks in their financial fundamentals» However, rating compression problem causes limited ratings differentiation, constrained by the sovereign rating (Caa2 positive)» We expect that bank ratings will further diverge once the sovereign rating improves Notches of uplift from external support Piraeus Bank SA (Piraeus) % Caa3 / Stable caa2 0 National Bank of Greece S.A. (NBG) % Caa3 / Positive caa2 0 Eurobank Ergasias SA (Eurobank) % Caa3 / Stable caa2 0 Alpha Bank SA (Alpha) % Caa3 / Positive caa2 0 Attica Bank SA (Attica) 3.6 1% Caa3 / Stable caa3 0 Total Rated Banks Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

6 2 Focus on NPE reduction and recoveries; the primary challenge

7 Billion Banks main focus is on reducing the backlog of Non Performing Exposures and recoveries 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% NPL (%) gross loans - Greece (left axis) NPE (%) gross loans - Greece (left axis) NPL coverage - Greece (right axis) NPE coverage - Greece (right axis) 75% 74% 68% 69% 69% 68% 65% 65% 56% 56% 51% 51% 47% 48% 45% 45% 54% 54% 53% 52% 48% 44% 45% 45% 37% 38% 38% 35% 34% 34% 37% 37% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Gross NPEs (left axis) NPE ratio (right axis) 50.5% 50.9% 50.5% 50.6% 50.0% 49.6% 48.0% 41.8% 33.9% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Greece Group Greece Group Greece Group Greece Group Alpha Bank AE Eurobank Ergasias S.A. National Bank of Greece S.A. Source: Banks Q results Piraeus Bank S.A. 0% Source: Bank of Greece» Sizeable NPEs/NPLs, among the highest in our banks rating universe; generation of new NPEs on a declining trend, which is encouraging.» Greek banks NPE reduction target of around 40% by the end of 2019; targets recently revised and approved by the SSM/BoG giving more emphasis on sale of problem loans and foreclosures/liquidations through auctions.» Track record has shown that NPE/NPL formation in Greece is highly contingent on political developments; we expect that the bulk of the NPE reduction will be mainly driven through restructurings, recoveries and write-offs Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov % 0%

8 Challenges in improving asset quality; legislative improvements to assist» Problematic mortgage loans are among the hardest to tackle; more than 30% of mortgage borrowers have applied for legal protection under the Katseli Law (around 10 billion).» Banks have limited to no leverage on such borrowers, many of whom are strategic defaulters. Indicatively, around 40% of personal bankruptcy cases heard so far at courts have been decided in favour of banks as they do not meet the criteria.» For business loans, the out of court work-outs (OCW) law passed in 2017 has not been very effective so far with a limited number of applicants (debts > 20,000).» The market for the sale of NPEs is still at its early stage of development, as only Attica Bank and Eurobank have performed their first sales.» We expect the implementation of IFRS 9 to trigger additional provisions for Greek banks although these will be phased-in over a five year period.» New ECB guidance on stricter provisions from 2018 onwards, also likely to raise credit costs Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

9 3 Comfortable regulatory capital, but quality is weak

10 Billion EUR An Enhanced Regulatory Capital Base, Although Significant DTAs Compromise its Quality CET1 (excl. DTC, CoCos & State Prefs) (left axis) DTA eligible for DTC (left axis) CoCos (left axis) State prefs (left axis) Reported CET1 ratio - right axis 17.9% 17.4% % % Alpha Bank AE Eurobank Ergasias S.A. National Bank of Greece S.A. Piraeus Bank S.A. 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% Above regulatory minimum» Phased-in CET1:17.2%» Fully Loaded CET1: 16.2% Sizeable DTAs» Around 83% of DTAs is eligible to be converted into DTCs» DTCs / Phased-in CET1: 53% Sources: Moody s Investors Service; Banks Financials June 2017 Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

11 Downside risks to banks capital metrics Non-provisioned NPEs» Only around half of NPEs have been provisioned.» Including the value of collaterals (reported up to the gross value of the loan) NPEs are almost fully covered.» Texas Ratio [Gross NPEs % (Loan Loss Reserves + Equity)] = 141% Exposure to GGBs» Exposure to Greek Government Bonds remains high at 11.2 billion (including T-bills), or around a third of banks capital.» GGBs and government loans account half of Greek banks capital and reserves (excluding provisions for credit losses). Future treatment of DTCs» Currently DTCs are recognized as CET1 by the ECB under the fully-loaded Basel III framework.» However, uncertainty exists whether this treatment will remain the same going forward. Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

12 4 Despite significant funding improvements, liquidity remains tight amid capital controls

13 Funding and liquidity will remain a key challenge as capital controls remain in place» Deposits vulnerable to political developments» Eurosystem funding remains high but significantly reduced, especially ELA, since June 2015» Increased inter-bank repo transactions with foreign banks involving mainly high quality securities» Three Greek banks issued covered bonds in Q that will further reduce ELA, although at a higher cost Billion Domestic Private-Sector Deposits (LHS) ECB Funding (RHS) Emergency Liquidity Assistance (RHS) Capital controls imposed Note: The December 2016 decline owes to a reclassification of 6.3 billion of deposits held by the Consignment Deposits and Loan Fund and the Hellenic Deposit and Investment Guarantee Fund. Excluding that reclassification, private sector deposits increased by 2.9 billion in December. Source: Bank of Greece Billion Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

14 ELA dependence significantly reduced since imposition of capital controls NBG best placed to fully eliminate ELA exposure Sources: Banks Financials Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

15 5 Marginal profitability expected in

16 Profit Before Tax ( million) Marginal profitability in will likely end capital consumption» Banks will remain marginally profitable in , following years of heavy losses.» Provisioning costs will decline from the high levels in to meet the ECB's AQR requirements.» Moving towards normalisation of pre-provision income (PPI), excluding one-off items.» Net interest margins to benefit from decline in ELA, and gradual increase in loan growth.» Declined operating costs (VRS & branch closures) to support profits Sources: Banks Financials Eurobank - Jun 2016 NBG - Jun 2016 Piraeus Bank - Jun 2016 Eurobank - Jun 2017 NBG - Jun 2017 Piraeus Bank - Jun 2017 Alpha Bank - Jun 2017 Alpha Bank - Jun Core PPI ( million) Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

17 Greek banking system profitability metrics on an improving trend from a low base 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% H H % 2.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% -1.8% Net interest margin Pre provision income (%) average total assets Return on average assets (RoAA) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% H H % 97% 51% 49% -2% 0% Cost-to-income ratio Loan loss provisions (%) pre-provision income Net income (%) tangible assets Source: Moody s Financial Metrics Greek Banks Key Challenges and Rating Drivers, 9 Nov

18 Nondas Nicolaides Vice President Senior Credit Officer odys.com Henry MacNevin Associate Managing Director odys.com Sean Marion Managing Director ys.com moodys.com

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