Corporate presentation. February 2018

Transcription

1 Corporate presentation February 2018

2 Important Notice Forward Looking Information No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from the Group s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group s view only as of the date hereof. 1 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Legal

3 Table of Contents 1 Overview 2 Financial Highlights 3 Profitability 4 Asset Quality 5 Liquidity 6 Macro 7 Appendix I Appendix II: Financials

4 Overview 1

5 Comprehensive strategy to tap the Greek recovery potential Utilize high coverage and capital levels to work through NPLs Deploy liquidity to support the recovery of the Greek economy Improve profitability to allow for strong organic capital generation Overview 4 Corporate Presentation February 2018

6 Successfully completed all major strategic objectives since the 2015 recapitalization Consistently delivering on all strategic objectives m 2018E 2015 Recapitalization following the AQR results Restructuring plan approval by EC Revised strategy and changed leadership Completed divestments in line with the restructuring plan Increased loan loss coverage to the highest levels among peers Set the basis for OPEX reduction Optimized collateral and liquidity management Significantly improved financial performance across key metrics Exceeded NPE and NPL reduction targets 9m.17 Group PPI increases by +9% yoy 9m.17 Group OpEx declines by 8% yoy Exceeded 2017 NPE reduction targets Ongoing divestments expected to enhance further capital and liquidity position Clear path towards ELA exposure elimination in Q b loan disbursements to corporates during 9m.17 Loan & Deposit balances lag RP predictions by c. 4b and c. 5b respectively, due to extended economic uncertainty Higher core income driven by increased NII on funding benefits and positive growth in corporate loans offsetting lower NPL accruals Substantially lower CoR vs persistently high levels of 2017 ELA elimination: liquidity to be channeled towards healthy corporates Enhancing outperformance buffer on NPE reduction c 2.5b in new corporate disbursements Overview 5 Corporate Presentation February 2018

7 Positioning to take advantage of gradual economic recovery in the following years Strategic objectives going forward A Enhance core income growth B Improve asset quality C Normalize the liquidity position - Satisfy healthy corporate credit demand induced by a growing macroeconomic environment, benefiting NIM through mix improvement and NII through levering up - Capitalize on leading debit card position to increase POS fees and e-banking transaction fees as well as corporate credit extension to drive lending related fees - Further improve efficiency - Utilize high coverage and capital levels to work through NPE reduction over and above the targets agreed with the SSM - Achieve all asset quality KPIs agreed with SSM - Increase restructuring efforts, containing re-defaults - Utilize closure measures to allow for effective signaling towards strategic defaulters - Establish a sizable and recurring presence in the primary wholesale funding markets - Capitalize on leading franchise position to attract deposit inflows 6 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Overview

8 NPEs decline for a 6 th quarter in a row adding up to a total reduction of 3.5b since end 2015 NPEs NPLs Parent NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) ( b) FY.17 target exceeded NPE operational performance ahead of targets Operational targets submitted to the SSM contain a reduction of NPLs and NPEs by 7.4b and 8.5b over the period , equal to a reduction of c.50% and 40% respectively; slight revision of targets relating to the timing of reduction until 2019 Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NPL and NPE ratios will have been reduced by c.15ppts, with NPE coverage around 50% Reduction of 3.5b so far, exceeding the 2017 target Remaining NPE reduction at 4.9b ( b) Total targeted: - 8.5b FY15 Done Remaining FY19 NPE reduction target 7 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Asset quality

9 NBG stands out in asset quality Peer Group 1 : NPE & Coverage (Group) Peer Group 1 : 90dpd & Coverage (Group) Peer Group 1 : net NPLs vs TBV (Group) 55% 54% NPE ratio 45% 45% 90dpd ratio 34% 36% 37% 35% TBV ( b) Coverage ratio 56% 45% 48% 52% Coverage ratio 74% 70% 69% 66% Unprovided NPLs ( b) NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 2.8b 0.6b 2.1b - 0.1b NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 TBV less net NPLs ( b) 1. Latest available data 8 Corporate Presentation February 2018

10 P/TBV (3Q17) Asset quality developments drive valuations NBG domestic NPE stock vs P/TBV 4Q16-3Q17 P/TBV vs unprovided NPLs / TBV 3Q17 NPE stock ( b) - 0.2b - 0.3b - 0.2b NBG 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Alpha P/TBV (x) Eurobank Piraeus 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Unprovided NPLs/TBV Mkt prices as at February 23 rd, Corporate Presentation February 2018

11 Divestiture plan enhances capital and liquidity substantially and underlines NBG s commitment to the successful implementation of the RP CET 1 ratio Divestments: latest developments 16.5% 16.8% 16.6% OCR: 12.25% Ethniki Insurance impact of: c110bps in capital and c 770m in liquidity Vojvodjanska and NBG Leasing (Serbia) closed in December 2017 adding +44bps to capital and c 270m in liquidity, Banca Romaneasca to close soon; RWA deconsolidation impact of c35bps in capital; liquidity impact of c 0.6b DTC: 4.7b CET1: 8.75% CET1: 6.5bn CET1: 6.5bn CET1: 6.4bn 2Q17 3Q Regulatory Requirement CRD IV fully loaded RWAs ( bn) Corporate Presentation February 2018 Profitability

12 Superior liquidity position gives NBG the opportunity to reclaim profitable market share in the corporate segment Domestic L:D ratio (%) Q317 ELA exposure ( b) latest available Alpha Eurobank 111 Piraeus Current cash buffer NBG Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Corporate loans market shares Q317 NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank Risk adjusted spread by LoB 9m17 Risk #4 74 #3 adjusted spread 35.4% Gross Loans Performing Loans 22.8% 18.8% 30.3% 25.6% 25.2% 21.7% 20.2% Spread , CoR NBG Piraeus Alpha Eurobank -884 Mortgages Consumer SBLs Corporates 11 Corporate Presentation February 2018

13 Financial Highlights 2

14 NPE reduction continues, ELA disengagement is imminent, agreed capital actions to provide a buffer against regulatory exercises Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Domestic NPE stock reduction continues for a 6 th consecutive quarter NPE reduction continues in 3Q17, with the stock reduced by 0.2b, reflecting negative formation of 119m and fully provided write offs of 105m Net NPE reduction achieved since end-2015 at 3.5b, exceeding the FY.17 SSM target Group NPE and NPL coverage at sector leading levels (56% and 74%), combined with the lowest NPL and NPE levels among domestic banks ELA close to elimination ELA exposure reduced by 2.8b since 2Q17, standing at 1.0b in October 17 1 st covered bond transaction since 2009 completed in October, raising 750m at a yield of 2.90%; 85% of the issue was covered from international investors Short term completion of agreed capital transactions of Ethniki Insurance, Banca Romanesca and Vodvodjanska to provide an additional 1.7b in liquidity Superior liquidity position and lowest funding cost among local peers, imply NBG is best positioned to satisfy future corporate credit demand CET 1 ratio at 16.8% or 16.6% on a CRD IV FL basis Group RWAs at 38.5b of which 34.4b in Greece Agreed capital actions expected to complete by early 2018, providing additional capital buffer ahead of upcoming regulatory exercises Key Ratios - Group 9M17 1H17 1Q17 9M16 Liquidity Loans-to-Deposits ratio 83% 86% 87% 89% ELA exposure ( bn) Profitability NIM (bps) Cost-to-Core income 51% 50% 49% 55% Asset quality NPE ratio 45.2% 45.0% 44.9% 46.6% NPE coverage ratio 55.9% 55.7% 56.0% 55.5% Cost of Risk (bps) Capital CET1 phased-in 16.8% % % % 3 CET1 ratio CRD IV FL 16.6% % % % 3 RWAs ( bn) Excludes the impact from the agreed sales of S.A.B.A., Ethniki Insurance, Banca Romaneasca and Vojvodjanska Banka 2. Excludes the impact from the agreed sales of UBB, Interlease & S.A.B.A. 3. Excludes CoCos 13 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Highlights

15 9m17 Group core PPI increases by +9% yoy; Q317 provisions level off P&L Highlights Group P&L 9m17 group PPI at 513m, flat yoy, on the back of: Flat group core income reflecting sustained deleveraging offset by lower funding costs Lower group OpEx (-8% yoy equal to c 60m yoy) Increased non core income losses of 155m in 9m.17 More specifically in 3Q: NII down by 7% qoq or - 27m qoq, reflects continuing deleverage of the loan portfolio, as well as reducing exposure to high yielding GGBs Net fees and commissions (-4% qoq) are up +43% yoy in the 9m, benefitting from the elimination of Pillar funding costs and a pick up in retail and other banking related fee income Group OpEx reduction (-8.0% yoy), is driven by domestic personnel costs (-12.4% yoy), reflecting the 2016 VES Domestic credit risk charges are down by 24% qoq, but remain conservative with a CoR ratio of 198bps; NPE coverage increases by 40bps qoq to 56.6%, the highest among domestic peers m 9M17 9M16 YoY 3Q17 2Q17 QoQ NII % % Net Fees & Commissions % % Core Income % % Trading & other income (155) (96) +61% (81) (73) +11% Income % % Operating Expenses (701) (762) -8% (238) (232) +3% Core PPI % % PPI % % Provisions (589) (487) +21% (156) (200) -22% Operating Profit (77) 30 n/m (40) (41) -3% Other impairments (4) (59) -93% 2 (1) n/m PBT (81) (29) >100% (38) (42) -10% Taxes (23) (11) >100% (6) (10) -41% PAT (cont. ops) (104) (40) >100% (44) (52) -16% PAT (discont. ops) (48) (2 891) -98% 19 (97) n/m Minorities (26) (28) -6% (10) (7) +42% 1. 9m.17 PAT incorporates a capital loss of 94m and 56m form the agreed sales of the Romanian and Serbian businesses which have not yet completed. Upon completion capital will benefit from RWA deconsolidation. PAT 1 (178) (2 959) -94% (35) (156) -78% 14 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Highlights

16 Profitability 3

17 9m17 domestic core PPI +10% yoy, as funding cost benefits and cost savings outweigh NII pressure Group Core PPI decomposition by region ( m) Group Core PPI bridge ( m) YoY -14.1% NII drop reflects mainly sustained deleveraging and lower NPL accruals partially offset by NII funding cost benefits o/w: P2 funding benefit 42m YoY 9M16 ΔNII Δfees ΔOpEx 9M17 On lower NII due to GGBs (- 14m) % -6.6% % Group Core PPI margin Group CoR Group Core Operating margin 1 (bps) Q16 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 GRE SEE & Other Group Core operating margin M16 9M17 3Q17 1. Core PPI margin and CoR are calculated over net loans 16 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Profitability

18 Domestic NIM maintained north of 300bps Greece Domestic NII breakdown Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 Loans ,157 1, Deposits Bonds Eurosystem & wholesale Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 NII ( m) NIM (bps) Subs & other Total ,168 1,116 SEE & Other Evolution of domestic net loans ( b) Reduction of c. 1.6b in eop net balances in 12months Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 Mortgages Consumer SBLs Corporate 9M17 NII ( m) NIM (bps) 17 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Profitability

19 Domestic deposits pick up by 0.5b qoq, while time deposit yields bottom out Greek deposit yields (bps) Greek deposits evolution ( b) % 69% 69% 69% 68% Core deposits/total % qoq New production yield at c75 bps Time Time Total Sight & other Core Savings Mkt share 37%, +1.0 ppts yoy 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 18 Profitability Corporate Presentation February 2018

20 Domestic deleveraging continues, driven mainly be retail exposures; lending yields are down slightly but remain at high levels supporting NIM at a +300bps level Greek lending yields 1 (bps) Greek loan evolution ( b) Consumer Total lending yield (bps) Net loans Performing loans SBLs % qoq Corporate Corporate SBL Consumer Mortgages Mortgages 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1: Calculated on performing loans including FNPEs<90dpd 2: Performing loans derived after deducting 90dpd loans 19 Profitability Corporate Presentation February 2018

21 9m17 domestic fee income up by +8% yoy, driven by retail and other banking related fee income; including PII fee impact, fees are up by +52% yoy Group fee income by region excl. ELA fees ( m) Domestic fee decomposition excl. ELA fees ( m) ELA cost ELA cost % 0.38% 0.38% 0.31% 0.38% Fees/Assets 1 YoY YoY Total % +0% Fund mgm, Brokerage & other % +28% SEE & Other Greece YoY +4% +0% +5% % Wholesale Banking Fees Retail Banking Fees YoY +5% +34% -2% % +5% % 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 Column1 9M16 9M17 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 Column1 9M16 9M17 1: Excluding assets held for sale 20 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Profitability

22 9m17 personnel costs decline 12% yoy, leading total costs down by 9% yoy and cost-to-core income to 50% Group OpEx by category ( m) Domestic cost-to-core income evolution Greece Group 9M17 9M16 yoy 9M17 9M16 Yoy 55% 54% Personnel % % G&As % % Depreciation % % 50% Total % % Domestic OpEx evolution ( m) 9M16 9M17 3Q17 Headcount evolution ( 000) G&A & other SEE & Other Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Staff 2.5m one off due to employee promotions Greece FY09 1 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1. Excludes Ethniki Insurance Company, UBB, BROM & Vojvo employees 21 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Profitability

23 Asset quality 4

24 Despite low write offs in 3Q, negative formation of - 119m allows the NPE stock to keep declining Domestic NPE stock per category 3Q17 ( b) Domestic NPE stock movement ( b) FNPE & other impaired 90dpd Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Domestic NPE stock evolution ( b) NPE ratio 46.4% 45.1% 45.1% 45.2% 45.3% FNPEs & other impaired bps reported basis, -59bps qoq ex deleveraging 90dpd Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 23 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Asset quality

25 NPE formation remains negative in 3Q17, improving to - 119m qoq Mortgages ( m) Consumer ( m) NPE formation* ( m) Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q SBLs ( m) Corporate ( m) Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 * SSM perimeter 24 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Asset quality

26 90dpd formation in 3Q reflects improving retail 90dpd inflows, offset by corporate flows Mortgages ( m) Consumer ( m) Domestic 90dpd formation ( m) Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 66 SBLs ( m) Corporate ( m) Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 25 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Asset quality

27 Lowest 90dpd and NPE ratios in Greece, combined with the highest cash coverage Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment Domestic 90dpd NPE bridge ( bn) 34% 51% 62% 94% 79% 23% 34.1% 34.1% SEE & other: 90dpd ratio: 34% Coverage: 56% Cash coverage 42% 109% 75.2% 74.1% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group 90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE Other impaired NPEs Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment Domestic forborne stock breakdown ( bn) Collateral coverage 1 76% 8% 52% 53% 55% 58% 71% SEE & other: NPE ratio: 44% Coverage: 43% FPE 2.9 FNPE<30 dpd % 83% 69% 38% 45.3% 45.2% 10.1 Cash coverage 34% 66% 56.6% 55.9% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group FNPE >90dpd 3.2 FNPE 31-90dpd 0.8 LLAs/ Gross loans 14% 48% 49% 25% 26% 1. cash provisions incorporate additional haircuts on the market value of collateral to account for the prospect of forced sale; all numbers bank level 26 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Asset quality

28 Large scale Special Asset (Corporate) and Retail Collection Units Corporate NPL Management Special Assets Unit ( SAU ) is a centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility for the management of corporate NPLs with: Vertically integrated management to ensure single point accountability and efficient decision making Dedicated SAU RMs and separate Credit Committees Clear prioritisation strategy based on ageing, size, collateralisation levels and legal status Internally developed tools to prioritise alternative strategies and assess debtors viability Short-term and longer-term target setting and RM productivity monitored monthly Overview of Portfolio Corporate Balance ( bn) of which (denounced) #Clients Large Corporates & Shipping (291) 29 SMEs ,075 (3,312) 74 (2) SBL ,705 (2,084) 72 of which (1) (3) & (4) Denounced (Admin.) (2.4) (5,687) 63 Legal, Control & Operational 71 Total 5.8 (2.4) 11, FTEs Retail Collections Unit Retail Collections Unit ( RCU ) is an independent unit focused on management of retail NPLs and collections Centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility Strategy differentiated by customer segmentation: collecting in early buckets, restructuring subsequently, legal actions according to selection criteria, and settlements for >360dpd New restructuring products designed to ensure solution sustainability based on PTI and on client s disposable income after subtracting reasonable living expenses Tight performance monitoring of internal collection center and external agents and lawyers through comprehensive KPIs Champion/challenger tactics frequently employed to test new segment strategies based on cohort attributes (profession, income, dpd, collateral) Retail Balance ( bn) Treatment Clients ( 000) FTE Mortgages 9.1 Collections Consumer 2.8 Restructuring Micro-SBL 1.2 Legal/ Settlements Total Branches (execution) 807 Various support functions 133 c. 2,000 FTEs deployed in collections and NPL management (1) SME: small & medium enterprises (2) SBL: small business loans Overview (3) Denounced: legal procedures have been initiated. (4) Clients with all contracts denounced 27 Corporate Presentation February 2018

29 Liquidity 5

30 Total Eurosystem exposure reduced by c. 20b; ELA reduced by c. 16b; on the back of the divestment plan, interbank access and deleveraging Eurosystem and Interbank funding evolution (all amounts in bn and cash equivalents) ECB ELA Interbank Collateral optimization Interbank funding -4,0bn Eurosystem exposure Waiver 8.9 Reinstatement 8.2 Sinepia +0,3bn cash Pillars cancellation Correlated assets repos -1,2bn Eurosystem exposure Increase of correlated assets repos Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 ELA reduction Key items (all amounts in bn and cash equivalents) ELA June 2015 Divestment Plan Net Loans Net Intragroup Funding Net Interbank Repos (Corellated) Net Deposits Net Bond Redemptions Waiver Reinstatement Net Cash Recapitalization Cash Collateral Other Covered Bond Maturity ELA December Liquidity Corporate Presentation February 2018

31 Best in class liquidity and lowest cost of funding place NBG at an advantageous position vs peers to satisfy demand for credit from healthy corporates Peer group analysis: liquidity position (Group) Peer Group: Domestic funding cost 2 ELA/ Assets 1 0% 9% 12% 12% % 0.56% 0.66% 0.63% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Domestic L:D ratio evolution NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 NBG domestic deposit flows per quarter ( b) Peer domestic L:D ratio 3 141% 138% 134% 130% 130% 128% 124% NBG Greece 91% 91% 89% 86% 87% 85% 83% 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 L/D ratio provides upside for selective credit growth b b Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 1: Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds 2: Estimated based on latest available funding balances & yields 3: Peer average data excluding NBG, based on latest available data 30 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Liquidity

32 Macro 6

33 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Aug-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Apr-12 Dec-12 Aug-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Apr-16 Dec-16 Aug-17 Economic recovery gained traction in Q3:2017, buoyed by tourism and other exports Manufacturing production and capacity utilization Unemployment rate and employment growth % index y-o-y % Capacity utilization (right axis) Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis) Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis) External trade & services balance (y-o-y) Greece: Business confidence indicators y-o-y y-o-y Index Exports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis) Imports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis) Travel services receipts (12m m.a., right axis) Services receipts (excl. travel services, 12m m.a., right axis) Industrial (left axis) Retail (left axis) Services (left axis) Construction (right axis) Sources: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, EU Commission 32 Corporate Presentation February 2018

34 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17* 25/9/ /9/2017 3/10/2017 7/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/2017 4/11/2017 8/11/ /11/ /11/ /11/2017 Capital controls Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec e 2018f The fiscal performance remains solid and increasing credibility is gradually factoring into financial market conditions Greece: Gen. Gov. Primary balance (as % of GDP) State budget Primary balance (as % of GDP) 4 0 % GDP surplus % GDP deficit *excluding SMP & ANFA revenue -6-9 Gen.Gov. total balance Gen.Gov. primary balance Primary balance (Programme target) Primary balance (Budget 2018) Greek Sovereign, corporate bond yields & stock market * 2015* 2016* 2017* Greek Sovereign bond yields index % 3rd MoU ,6 4,2 3,8 3,4 3,0 2,6 2,2 % % 6,0 5,8 5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 4,8 4,6 FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap (left axis) 10yr Greek Government bond yield (right axis) Greek non-financial corp. bond yield (BoG Composite Index, right axis) *as of November 20, yr GGB (left axis) 6m T-bill (left axis) 2yr GGB (left axis) 10yr GGB (right axis) Sources: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, Bloomberg, PDMA, EU Commission 33 Corporate Presentation February 2018

35 e* H1:2009 H2:2009 H1:2010 H2:2010 H1:2011 H2:2011 H1:2012 H2:2012 H1:2013 H2:2013 H1:2014 H2:2014 H1:2015 H2:2015 H1:2016 H2:2016 H1:2017 Q3:2017 Q2:2016 Q3:2016 Q4:2016 Q1:2017 Q2:2017 Q3:2017 Q4:2017 Q3:2007 Q1:2008 Q3:2008 Q1:2009 Q3:2009 Q1:2010 Q3:2010 Q1:2011 Q3:2011 Q1:2012 Q3:2012 Q1:2013 Q3:2013 Q1:2014 Q3:2014 Q1:2015 Q3:2015 Q1:2016 Q3:2016 Q1:2017 Q3:2017 The economic recovery will be supported in the near term by higher public investment and an improving corporate performance, but the adjustment of households and less competitive firms remains slow. Residential and commercial real estate prices are stabilizing Government arrears clearance and public investment Households assessment of economic conditions 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 as % of GDP Index Index Consumer Survey data Payments for arrears clearance (incl. tax refunds, % GDP) Public investment budget expenditure (% GDP) Consumer confidence & household income Intention for home improvements (left axis) Intention to purchase or build a home (left axis) Financial situation over the next 12 months (right axis) Real estate prices (y-o-y) y-o-y index Oct: y-o-y 2017Q3: -0.6% yoy *2017: Ameco & NBG estimates Household disposable income (left axis) Consumer confidence (total, right axis) Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) House prices (total, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y) Sources: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, Bank of Greece, Ameco & NBG estimates 34 Corporate Presentation February 2018

36 Appendix I 7

37 NBG delivery of medium term targets envisaged in the 2015 capital raise A) Funding Cost Improvement Greece 2Q15 3Q17 Δ Time deposits repricing (bps) Reduction of ELA ( b) Elimination of Pillar bonds ( b) B) Business Mix Optimization & Income growth Gross Corporate loans / Total loans (%) Greece 2Q15 1 3Q17 3 Δ bps Lending yield 2 (bps) Net Interest Income ( m) Net Interest Margin (bps) Deposit inflows ( b) C) Efficiency Improvement Fee Income / Assets (bps) D) CoR Evolution Greece 2Q15 1 3Q17 3 Δ # of employees (in 000s) Employee wage bill ( m, ann.) Cost-to-Core income (%) ppts Greece FY14A FY16A 3Q17A CoR (bps) P&L charge ( m, annualized) 1, Q15 figures include the Ethniki Insurance Company 2. Down due to restructuring impact 3. Excludes the Ethniki Insurance company agreed to be sold 4. Expected NBG inflows in the 2 years following the imposition of capital controls at c. 3-4b, actual experienced at 1.3b 36 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Overview

38 Capital controls framework Cash withdrawal limit 100% of cash deposited after can be withdrawn 840 equivalent per fortnight per customer (applicable up to ) equivalent per month per customer (applicable from ) Purchase of Greek mutual funds Allowed New account opening Allowed for existing (as of ) customers Subject to specific criteria, e.g. primary payroll account, for new customers Greek capital market instruments Allowed Additional account beneficiary Allowed for existing (as of ) customers Prohibited for new customers Foreign investments liquidation Proceeds can be re-invested Transfers from abroad 100% of incoming funds can be re-transferred abroad 10% of incoming funds received before can be withdrawn 30% of incoming funds received between and can be withdrawn 50% of incoming funds received after can be withdrawn Change of Custodian Bank Prohibited when changing to foreign custodian Outgoing wire transfers abroad Private individuals can transfer up to 1,000 per month Trade related payments < 350k approval at bank level Weekly limit for bank-level committee at 112mn > 350k approval by the Banking Transactions Approval Committee Time deposit break Allowed Early loan repayment Allowed Appendix I 37 Corporate Presentation February 2018

39 RWA Evolution Asset-liability mix Evolution of RWAs ( b) Asset mix ( b) Liability mix ( b) Planned Divestments Interbank placements, 1.9 Securities, 10.1 EFSF/ESM bonds, 2.0 Domestic net loans, Cash, 1.2 Interbank liabil, 3.8 ECB, 3.8 ELA, 2.3 Savings, 18.1 Current & Sight, Domestic deposits 36.0 SEE & Other net loans, 2.0 DTA, 4.9 Other, 13.5 Time & Other, 11.1 SEE & Other deposits, 2.1 Other Liabil, 10.0 Total equity and minorities, 6.8 Debt securities, 0.5 RWAs 2015 RWAs 2016 RWAs 9M17 Assets Liabilities 38 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Overview

40 NBG Shareholder structure as at February 2018 Other 0.6% HFSF 40.4% Int'l Institutionals 47.8% Domestic legal entities 1.2% Domestic institutionals 2.5% Domestic retail 7.5% Domestic investors: 11.2% 39 Appendix I Corporate Presentation February 2018

41 Appendix II: Financials

42 Group Balance Sheet & P&L Balance Sheet Group P&L Group m 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 Cash & Reserves Interbank placements Securities Loans (Gross) Provisions (10 900) (10 968) (11 176) (11 301) (11 867) Goodwill & intangibles Tangible assets DTA Other assets Assets held for sale Total assets Interbank liabilities Due to customers Debt securities Other liabilities Hybrids Liabilities held for sale Minorities Equity Total liabilities and equity m 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 NII Net fees Core Income Trading & other income 1 (81) (73) (1) 104 (27) Income Operating Expenses (238) (232) (231) (255) (257) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (156) (200) (233) (210) (161) Operating Profit (40) (41) Other impairments 2 (1) (6) (28) (15) PBT (38) (42) (1) 74 8 Taxes (6) (10) (7) (9) (6) PAT (cont. ops) (44) (52) (8) 65 2 PAT (discount. ops) 19 (97) Minorities (10) (7) (9) 1 (7) PAT (35) (156) Q16 includes 150m gain from the sale of Astir Pallas, 41 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Appendix

43 Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other Greece SEE & Other m 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 NII Net fees Core Income Trading & other income 1 (81) (71) (1) 99 (27) Income Operating Expenses (217) (213) (210) (235) (237) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (151) (199) (232) (200) (162) Operating Profit (47) (51) (4) 96 9 Other impairments 3 0 (6) (27) (15) PBT (44) (50) (10) 70 (6) Taxes (5) (8) (5) (7) (4) PAT (cont. ops) (49) (58) (15) 62 (10) PAT (discount. ops) Minorities (10) (7) (9) 2 (7) PAT (40) (43) m 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 NII Net fees Core Income Trading & other income (0) (2) (1) 5 0 Income Operating Expenses (21) (19) (21) (20) (21) Core Pre-Provision Income Pre-Provision Income Provisions (5) (1) (1) (10) 1 Operating Profit Other impairments (0) (1) (0) (1) - PBT Taxes (1) (2) (2) (1) (2) PAT (cont. ops) Q16 includes 150m gain from the sale of Astir Pallas,. 42 Corporate Presentation February 2018 Appendix

44 Definition of financial data & ratios used Name Abbreviation Definition Common Equity / Book Value BV Equity attributable to NBG shareholders less minorities (non-controlling interests) and contingent convertible securities (CoCos) Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio CET1 ratio CET1 capital, as defined by Regulation No 575/2013 and based on the transitional rules over RWAs Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Fully Loaded CET1 ratio, CRD IV FL CET1 capital as defined by Regulation No 575/2013, without the application of the transitional rules over RWAs Core Income CI Net Interest Income ( NII ) + Net fee and commission income + Earned premia net of claims and commissions Core Operating Result (Profit / (Loss)) - Core income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Core Operating Margin - Core operating profit / (loss) annualized over average net loans Core Pre-Provision Income Core PPI Core Income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Core Pre-Provision Margin Core PPI margin Core PPI annualized over average net loans Cost of Risk / Provisioning Rate CoR Credit provisions of the period annualized over average net loans Cost-to-Core Income Ratio C:CI Operating expenses over core Income Cost-to-Income Ratio C:I Operating expenses over total income Deposit Yields - Annualized interest expense on deposits over deposit balances Forborne - Forborne Non-Performing Exposures Forborne Performing Exposures FNPEs FPEs Exposures for which forbearance measures have been extended according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures Exposures with forbearance measures that meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures Exposures with forbearance measures that do not meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures and forborne exposures under probation period Funding cost - The blended cost of deposits, ECB refinancing, repo transactions and ELA funding Gross Loans - Loans and advances to customers before allowance for impairment, excluding the loan to the Greek State of 6.0bn Loan Yield - Annualized loan interest income over gross performing loan balances Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D Net loans over total deposits, period end 43 Corporate Presentation February 2018

45 Definition of financial data & ratios used Name Abbreviation Definition Net Interest Margin NIM NII annualized over average interest earning assets Net Loans - Loans and advances to customers, excluding the loan to the Greek State of 6.0bn Net Profit / (Loss) - Profit / (loss) for the period attributable to NBG equity shareholders Non-Performing Exposures NPEs Non-Performing Exposures Coverage Ratio NPE coverage Non-performing exposures are defined according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non- Performing Exposures as exposures that satisfy either or both of the following criteria: a) Material exposures which are more than 90 days past due b) The debtor is assessed as unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full without realization of collateral, regardless of the existence of any past due amount or of the number of days past due. Stock of provisions (allowance for impairment for loans and advances to customers) over non-performing exposures, period end Non-Performing Exposures Ratio NPE ratio Non-performing exposures over gross loans, period end Non-Performing Loans NPLs Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more 90 Days Past Due Coverage Ratio 90dpd coverage Stock of provisions over loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, period end 90 Days Past Due Formation 90dpd formation Net increase / (decrease) of loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, before write-offs and after restructurings 90 Days Past Due Ratio 90dpd ratio Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more over gross loans, period end Operating Expenses OpEx, costs Personnel expenses + General, administrative and other operating expenses ( G&As ) + Depreciation and amortisation on investment property, property & equipment and software & other intangible assets Operating Profit / (Loss) - Total income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Pre-Provision Income PPI Total income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges) Profit / (loss) after tax PAT (cont. ops) Profit / (loss) for the period from continuing operations Risk Weighted Assets RWAs Assets and off-balance-sheet exposures, weighted according to risk factors based on Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 Tangible Equity / Book Value TBV Common equity less goodwill & intangibles (goodwill, software and other intangible assets) Total deposits - Due to customers 44 Corporate Presentation February 2018

46 This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.