1Q14 Results Analyst s Appendix. Madrid, April 30 th 2014

Transcription

1 1Q14 Results Analyst s Appendix Madrid, April 30 th 2014

2 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular Español solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation. This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever. 2

3 NII further details. ALM Portfolio & interest rate yield curve ALM Portfolio Euribor. Interest rate yield curve. Implicit (%) ( million) Mar-13 Dec 13 Mar-14 QoQ QoQ (%) Sovereign Debt 6,017 7,186 13,090 5,904 82% Spain 5,532 7,148 13,078 5,930 83% Italy - - Portugal % Non sovereign 3,505 6,023 7,058 1,035 17% Total Available for Sale (A) 9,522 13,209 20,148 6,939 53% Total Loans (B) , % Total Held To Maturity (C) 12, TOTAL PORTFOLIO (A+B+C) 23,466 14,111 21,281 7,170 51% 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,7 0,5 0,3 0,1 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Gross yield securities portfolio: 2.12% Euribor 12M rolling average Euribor 3M rolling average Average maturity (including swaps): 1.58 years (, million) Net interest income evolution Q13 ALM portfolio rotation Deleveraging and NPLs formation Liabilities costs improvement 1Q14 3

4 Loan exposure by segment Loan exposure by segment evolution (, million) mar-13 Dec-13 mar-14 YoY Lending to construction & Real Estate purposes 20,949 20,312 19, % Public works 2,280 2,368 2, % Corporates ex Real Estate 13,627 10,982 9, % SMEs ex Real Estate 28,901 31,070 30, % Individuals with mortgage collateral 27,333 24,642 24, % Individuals with other collaterals % Individuals rest 3,071 2,345 2, % Subtotal lending Spain 96,315 91,790 89, % Rest (repos, public administration, non Spain) 18,761 17,236 20, % Total gross loans group 115, , , % Note: From January 1 st 2014, due to the entry into force of IFRS 11, the equity method is applied to jointly controlled entities. For comparative purposes, this criterion has been applied to information concerning the financial year

5 Non performing & Doubtful loans evolution Non performing & Doubtful loans evolution (, million) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 NPLS+ Doubtful loans for objective reasons (1) 13,995 15,516 15,910 17,089 17,315 Doubtful loans for subjective reasons 1,387 1,081 1,788 4,127 3,743 Total 15,382 16,597 17,698 21,216 21,058 NPL ratio 9.91% 10.80% 11.81% 14.35% 14.28% o/w NPL 9.02% 10.10% 10.61% 11.56% 11.74% o/w Doubtful loans 0.89% 0.70% 1.19% 2.79% 2.54% (1) Performing companies under Chapter 11 NPL stock: split by collateral 55% 35% 26% 27% 25% 26% 45% 65% 74% 73% 75% 74% Q14 Without mortgage collateral With mortgage collateral Note: From January 1 st 2014, due to the entry into force of IFRS 11, the equity method is applied to jointly controlled entities. For comparative purposes, this criterion has been applied to information concerning the financial year

6 BoS Transparency exercise (I). Exposure to developers Lending to construction and RE: breakdown by type 1.44% 19.86% (, million) Real Estate lending % of total 59% 12% 29% 19,862 11, % 8.74% 12.45% 2,445 5, % Personal guarantee Finished buildings Buildings 52.19% Total exposure NPLs Substandard (watch list) Total coverage Still performing! Exposure Buildings under construction Developed land Other land General Corporate purposes with mortgage collateral (, million) 4Q13 1Q14 Total exposure 20,274 19,862 Specific+generic provisions 4,962 4,904 Write-offs 1,616 1,585 Total provisions 6,578 6,490 6

7 BoS Transparency exercise (II). RE foreclosed assets Foreclosed assets: detail & coverage Foreclosed assets: split by origin (, million) 1Q14 16% 3% Foreclosed assets (net amount) (1) 7,202 Provisions 5,485 Coverage 43% 11% 70% (1) Spain. Including financial stakes Foreclosed assets from lending to construction & RE purposes Foreclosed assets from retail mortgages Foreclosed assets: rest Capital instruments Foreclosed assets: split by type of collateral 3% 38% 4% 55% Finished buildings Buildings under construction Land Capital instruments 7

8 Finished buildings sales Coverage vs. Discount over book value evolution 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Discount over book value (gross) Finished buildings coverage 8

9 Provisions for loans & RE assets Provisions for loans, others & RE assets evolution (, million) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Specific + Country risk+ Equitys stakes & others Countercyclical Provisions for loans and others (A) Provisions for foreclosed assets (goodwill included) (B) Total provisions for loans and RE assets (A+B) , Note: From January 1 st 2014, due to the entry into force of IFRS 11, the equity method is applied to jointly controlled entities. For comparative purposes, this criterion has been applied to information concerning the financial year

10 Funding split Funding split Wholesale funding breakdown (, billion) Mar-14 Wholesale funding 14% ( 19.4 bn) Commercial paper 0.6 Interbank funds 3.7 Retail funding 59% Retail funding decreasing from 60% last year Official Institutions (1) 18% Clearing houses 9% EMTN 2.0 Covered bonds 11.5 Securitization 0.5 Subordinated debt 0.4 Preference shares 0.1 Institutional MCNs (BSOC III/IV) 0.5 Total wholesale funding bn total ECB exposure (o/w 1.2bn LTRO) (1) 3% ECB + 10% Treasury Exposure + 5% ICO credit lines to customers 10

11 Fully Diluted & TNAV/TBV calculations TNAV & TBV calculation TNAV & TBV per share calculation (, million) Mar-14 Equity 12,636 New equity from MCNs floating price conversion (1) 111 Fully diluted equity 12,747 Intangibles - goodwill -2,455 Tangible equity 10,181 Fully diluted Tangible equity 10,293 Valuation adjustments -127 ( ) Mar-14 Total shares outstanding 31 Mar 2014 (Mn) 2,074 New theoretical shares from MCNs conversion (Mn) (2) +56 Fully diluted number of shares (Mn) 2,130 TBV per share (shares outstanding) 4.91 Fully diluted TBV per share 4.83 TNAV per share (shares outstanding) 4.85 Fully diluted TNAV per share 4.77 Tangible NAV 10,054 Fully diluted Tangible NAV 10,165 (1) EUR78,0Mn MCN III/2012+ EUR33,3Mn MCN IV/2012 (2) 36 shares from MCN II/2012 converting at (floor) + 14 shares from MCN III/2012 converting at 5.48 (market price 31 Mar 2014) + 6 shares from MCN IV/2012 converting at

12 Reference shareholders Shareholders distribution Mar-14 Board of Directors 19.26% Institutional 50.15% Retail 30.59% Popular Shareholders syndicate 8.84% Credit Mutuel (1) 4,07% Allianz 3.50% Barrie de la Maza Foundation 2.68% Other core shareholders 0.17% (1) Represented by Alain Fradin. 12

13 13