Turistika Model scenario s (part IV)

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Rudolf Randall
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1 Turistika Model scenario s (part IV) Amsterdam/Willemstad dec CTB & DEZ 1

2 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze 2

3 Turistika break Supply side restrictions? Scenariostudy: Main markets compared Scenariostudy: Airline Outfall US Future of Turistika: the people s voice... 3

4 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze 4

5 Workshop objectives Getting people to know Turistika WhatcanTuristikado foryou? Presentation policy-relevant scenario s Gather input from participants 5

6 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze 6

7 The Turistika project: Calculate economic effects of tourism on different sectors Signal capacity restraints Calculate scenario s and policy intentions Provide a user friendly instrument Cooperative knowledge building Scientific quality 7

8 What is Turistika? Economicmodel for estimating tourism effects Based on expenditure surveys Tourist groups differ in demand patterns # arrivals still exogenous Calculating effects on local sectors & labour market Marketing strategies Policy measures Capacity restraints & development plans 8

9 Turistika - data sources CBS Consumer Price Index Employment by sector Production by sector (hence productivity) CTB Arrivals statistics, by country purpose of visit month of arrival carrier etc. etc. CTB Expenditure Survey CTB & DEZ 9

10 Turistika demand patterns Cruise tourists Stayover tourists 7 regions of origin (US, NL, EU, VZ, AUA, Carib, Latin, rest) 4 purposes of visit (holiday, family, business, trade) 3 age classes (young, middle aged, elderly) Totalling 49 relevant tourist groups Tourist behaviour Destination choice (exogenous) Length of stay (endogenous) Expenditure per day (endogenous) 10

11 49 tourist groups Xi, characterised by: country purpose of visit age class with different demand patterns Poisson OLS regression regression estimated length of stay estimated daily expenditure multiply total expenditure of group Xi share of expenditure labour per sector; productivity known for each of the per sector 49 tourist groups employment per sector total revenue per sector 11

12 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze 12

13 A. TURISTIKA I B. CURALYSE II C. SEPARATE QUALITATIVE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Tourist expenditures direct effect Economy of Curacao Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector n Indirect effect Investment in capacity: hotels, apts; air capacity, etc direct effect Economy of Curacao Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector n Indirect effect Dynamic effects: Intensified competition amongst airlines, hotels, apartments, restaurants, etc. Intensified competition leads to: Lower prices Increased consumer and social welfare Higher quality, better service Innovation 13

14 What s new october 2006 new accommodation classification expenditures now at product level (taxi etc.) expenditure patterns by [age * purpose * region * time] model estimations updated with more recent expenditure surveys supply side capacity implemented (partially) 14

15 What s new december 2008 indirect effects updated with new I/O table CBS (Curacao 2004) seasonal patterns for all countries sampling weights in model estimations labour & productivity update CBS Hotel Room Development update (dec. 2008) other capacity growth possible 15

16 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze 16

17 Tourist arrival in Curacao Thousands Bron: CTB USA&Canada Netherlands Venezuela Rest 17

18 Tourist arrival in Curacao Thousands Bron: CTB USA&Canada Netherlands Venezuela Rest 18

19 Stayover nights in Curacao Thousands 1,400 1,200 1, Bron: CTB USA/Canada Netherlands Venezuela Other 19

20 Stayover nights in Curacao Bron: CTB Other 33% VZ 10% USA 13% total = 1,6 mln NL 44% VZ 9% Other 26% USA 15% NL 50% total = 2,6 mln 20

21 Baseline - arrivals CTB & DEZ Moderate inflation after 2009 Moderate labour productivity growth (1%) US/Canada growth after 2009 NL growth diminishes Venezuela only marginal growth Aruba strong growth, Caribbean not South America growth Cruise increase mostly from South-America 21

22 Baseline - airlift USA airlift remains the same (average) NL/European airlift same or higher CTB promotional activities same Venezuela airlift already at its peak 22

23 Baseline - capacity CTB & DEZ Based on CTB Hotel Room Development, but updated and conservative Rif Fort 237 rooms in 2009 Hyatt 350 rooms in 2010 Clarion 96 rooms in 2009 Blue Bay over period La Morena 139 rooms in 2009 Palapa, Kontiki Beach Boca Gentil & other apartments Restaurants & car rental capacity is relatively flexible: increase 10% yearly 23

24 Baseline assumptions CTB & DEZ Economic variables Inflation (yearly growth; %) 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% Labour productivity (yearly growth; %) 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Inflow STA YOVER USA & Canada 8% -3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% Netherlands 10% 18% 12% 5% 5% 5% 5% Europe (excl. NL) 11% 11% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Aruba 19% 14% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Caribean -8% 22% -1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Venezuela -11% 184% 60% 4% 4% 4% 4% South America (excl. VZ) 12% 22% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Inflow CRUISE VS 16% 6% 5.5% 3% 3% 3% 3% other 16% 6% 5.5% 7% 7% 7% 7% Capacity Hotels-1 6% 4% 3% 22% 21% 0% 0.0% Hotels-2 0% 0% 3% 5% 6% 11% 0% Bungalowresorts 13% 14% 16% 54% 20% 0% 0% Apartments 6% 55% 0% 39% 15% 0% 0% Restaurants 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Car rental 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 24

25 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze 25

26 Turistika Opening speeches Workshop objectives What is Turistika? What s new? Base projection - assumptions How does Turistika work? pasteitjespauze! 26

27 Turistika break Supply side restrictions? Scenariostudy: Main markets compared Scenariostudy: Airline Outfall US Future of Turistika: the people s voice... 27

28 Supply side restrictions Untill now: capacity always too low lot of extra rooms available how much can Curacao tourism grow now? show scenario s in Excel 28

29 Turistika break Supply side restrictions? Scenariostudy: Main markets compared Scenariostudy: Airline Outfall US Future of Turistika: the people s voice... 29

30 Main markets compared Three scenarios: Sunny Europeans Latin Flow Americans are coming again additional to baseline Show scenario s in Excel 30

31 Tourist nights 2012 (mln) CTB & DEZ base Europe Latin American 31

32 Expenditures 2012 (mln US$) CTB & DEZ base Europe Latin American 32

33 Employment 2012 CTB & DEZ base Europe Latin American 33

34 Extra expenditure 2012 (relative to baseline, mln US$) CTB & DEZ Hotels-1 Hotels-2 Bungalowresorts Apartments Food at accommodation Restaurants Food at supermarket etc. Casino's Activities etc. Shopping Free zone Car rental Direct taxes Sunny Europeans Latin flow Americans 34

35 Turistika break Supply side restrictions? Scenariostudy: Main markets compared Scenariostudy: Airline Outfall US Future of Turistika: the people s voice... 35

36 Turistika break Supply side restrictions? Scenariostudy: Main markets compared Scenariostudy: Airline Outfall US Future of Turistika: the people s voice... 36

37 Future of Turistika Aviation module: capacity restraints at airport and especially airlines Seperate product markets: diving? And of course new scenario s Any suggestions? The floor is yours... 37

38 Turistika Model scenario s (part IV) Amsterdam/Willemstad dec CTB & DEZ 38

Turistika - Tourism scenario s

Turistika - Tourism scenario s 2010-2018 Amsterdam/Willemstad oct. 2011 1 Workshop objectives Getting people to know Turistika Present & discuss analyses of recent tourism trends Present & discuss policy-relevant