Six Cities Impacts Forecasting

Transcription

1 Six Cities Impacts Forecasting Annual Meeting Progress Update October 26, 2016

2 STUDY SCOPE Impacts Forecasts for Six Participating Cities Williston Watford City Dickinson Tioga Stanley Killdeer Study Funded 50/50 by NDAOGPC and Participating Cities What Impacts are being forecasted? Development and Growth Projections Capital Improvements Plan Incorporation Operational Impacts Forecast Financial Projections Gap Analysis

3 WHAT ARE WE CURRENTLY WORKING ON? Development and Growth Projections: NDSU is near complete on comprehensive County level workforce/population/housing forecasts through Vision West Projections are oil price dependent All city projections are being developed based on this information Growth Benchmarking City Service Level Impacts Revenue Forecasts

4 NDSU POPULATION & WORKFORCE STUDY For Vision West with support by NDAOGPC Study Focuses on County-level Economic Activity in the Region and Effect on Workforce and Population through 2040 OIL PRICE JOBS PEOPLE HOUSING

5 NDSU STUDY BACKGROUND COHORT Model Approach Fertility, Mortality, Migration, etc. Detailed analysis on current workforce / housing / population to better predict through 2040 Three Price Ranges Three economic (oil) activity scenarios within each price scenario 9 scenarios total NDSU Presented Scenarios Low (low price / medium activity) Moderate (medium price / medium activity) High (high price / medium activity)

6 PRICE SCENARIO SUMMARY EXAMINED 3 SETS OF FUTURE CONDITIONS: SCENARIOS* PRICES** WELLS COMPLETED PER YEAR RIG COUNTS PER YEAR FIRST PURCHASER PRICES IN ND LOW MED HIGH LOW HIGH Low Price $25 - $ Moderate Price $60 - $90 1,000 1,250 1, High Price $>90 1,700 2,000 2, * Price ranges are approximate as many factors influence development activities **Scenarios do not include re-fracking, CO 2 EOR, or restrictions on fracking From VisionWest webinars by NDSU

7 McKENZIE COUNTY JOBS Job growth driven by drilling & well activity with supporting activities Includes where people live & work to better estimate housing POPULATION Combination of birth, death, net migration, and job growth HOUSING Reviews existing housing stock and predicts needs based estimated population growth

8 MODERATE PRICE SCENARIO INCORPORATED Medium Price scenario represents 1.8% monthly growth rate over 36 months $75 (2020) first purchaser target (from $40 today) Well Completions Rig Count FIRST PURCHASER PRICES IN ND LOW MED HIGH LOW HIGH Moderate Price $60 - $90 1,000 1,250 1, City Challenges Include: Service Level Increases Need for New Infrastructure

9 McKENZIE COUNTY From VisionWest webinars by NDSU.

10 COUNTY LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS Moderate Price Scenario County Williams 22,398 35,294 32,130 33,030 33,954 34,905 35,883 36,887 37,920 38, % <-2010 to 2015 Growth Rate Projected County Growth Rate 2.8% McKenzie 6,360 12,826 10,996 11,282 11,575 11,876 12,185 12,502 12,827 13, % 2.6% Mountrail 7,673 10,331 9,782 10,027 10,277 10,534 10,797 11,067 11,344 11, % 2.5% Dunn 3,536 4,646 4,399 4,500 4,604 4,710 4,818 4,929 5,042 5, % 2.3% Stark 24,199 32,154 30,372 31,253 32,159 33,092 34,051 35,039 36,055 37, % 2.9% From VisionWest webinars by NDSU.

11 COUNTY LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS Moderate Price Scenario How do we project City? Participating City * Projected City Growth Rate Williston 14,716 26,997 26,668 27,415 28,182 28,971 29,783 30,616 31,474 32, % % Share of County** -> 66% 76% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% Watford City 1,744 6,708 6,598 7,333 7,871 8,313 8,651 9,001 9,364 9, % 27% 52% 60% 65% 68% 70% 71% 72% 73% 74% Stanley 1,458 2,721 2,641 2,707 2,878 2,950 3,239 3,320 3,517 3, % 19% 26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 30% 30% 31% 31% Tioga 1,230 2,400 2,249 2,312 2,377 2,443 2,871 2,951 3,034 3, % 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% Killdeer 751 1,254 1,232 1,260 1,335 1,366 1,445 1,479 1,563 1, % 21% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 31% Dickinson 17,787 23,765 22,779 23,440 24,441 25,150 26,220 26,980 28,123 28, % 74% 74% 75% 75% 76% 76% 77% 77% 78% 78% *2015 County and City values based on "American Community Survey 2015 Population Estimate" **State-wide, Metros range between 69 percent and 88 percent of County populations

12 McKENZIE COUNTY From VisionWest webinars by NDSU. Average ~100 units/year over study timeframe.

13 BENCHMARKING - Growth in Watford City Watford City August 2009

14 BENCHMARKING - Growth in Watford City Watford City September 2014

15 BENCHMARKING Growth in Watford City Since 2010 Watford City has added: ~76% to its horizontal infrastructure ~78% to their utility service accounts What does this mean moving forward?

16 WATFORD CITY GROWTH METRICS Population 1,744 2,283 2,989 3,914 5,124 6,708 Water Utility Accounts Population per Account Infrastructure Miles ,059 1,205 1,402 1, Inf Miles per 1,000 pop

17 FORECASTING GROWTH IN WATFORD CITY Population 7,333 7,871 8,313 8,651 9,001 9,364 9,739 Infrastructure Miles Utility (Water) Accounts 1,691 1,834 1,951 2,041 2,134 2,230 2,330

18 GROWTH METRICS and BENCHMARKING Regional analysis looking at operational levels of service from communities similar in size to long-term growth trajectory of participating cities Operational levels based in metrics: Population Utility Service Accounts Infrastructure Miles Facilities Operated Population & housing projections along w/ forecasted metrics form the core of City impact forecasts

19 BENCHMARKING Regional analysis looking at operational levels of service from communities similar in size to long-term growth trajectory of participating City s: Operational levels Benchmark based in Communities metrics of population, utility Large accounts, and infrastructure Intermediate miles (Williston/Dickinson) (Watford City) Small (Stanley/Tioga/Killdeer) Population & housing projections form the core of growth in utility accounts West Fargo, ND Grafton, ND Mayville, ND Gillette, WY Valley City, ND Langdon, ND Bozeman, MT Devils Lake, ND Rugby, ND Minot, ND Wahpeton, ND Grafton, ND Grand Forks, ND Yankton, SD Valley City, ND Jamestown, ND

20 BENCHMARKING Information Gathered Population City Land Mass Departmental Structure and Staffing Levels General Government Police Fire Streets Utilities Fleet Levels Infrastructure Operations Facilities Infrastructure Miles Number of Lift Stations Other Budget Levels

21 BENCHMARKING RESULTS DRAFT EMPLOYEE GROWTH: WILLISTON Police Fire Public Works Other General Government Not Benchmarked / New Departments Total Previous 2020 Estimate: 453 Population 27,415 28,182 28,971 29,783 30,616 31,474 32,355 Excludes Commission, Visitor Promotion, Library

22 MAJOR REVENUE FORECASTING Gross Production Tax Examining Current Formula and Reversion Specific to Moderate Price Forecast and Production Levels Sales Tax Analyzing Growth Considering Population Increases, Building Activity, and Industry Activity State Aid Moderate Scenario Population Estimates being utilized to Forecast Revenues Highway Tax Based State Level Revenue Generation and 2010 Population Distribution Property Tax Projecting Taxable Value Based on Building Activity Forecasts Utility Services Projected Account Growth and Usage Characteristics tied to Metrics

23 NEXT STEPS Finalize Benchmarking and Revenue Forecasts Expense Forecasts in Development for the Study Horizon Based on Projected Growth Incorporate Capital Improvement Plan Projections/Impacts Develop Overall Gap Analysis Work w/ Association and Each City on Final Results and Messaging Strategy Expected Completion Mid-December