Population and Demographic Changes

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Kimberly Hudson
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1 Population and Demographic Changes

NDSU POPULATION AND WORKFORCE STUDY Impacts

workforce and population analyses performed

support by WDEA through VisionWest ND NDSU

2 NDSU POPULATION AND WORKFORCE STUDY Impacts forecasting based on adaptations from workforce and population analyses performed by North Dakota State University with support by WDEA through VisionWest ND NDSU Study Focused on County-level Economic Activity in the Region and Effect on Workforce and Population through 2040 OIL PRICE JOBS PEOPLE HOUSING

3 COUNTY LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS Moderate Price Scenario County ,398 35,294 32,130 33,030 33,954 34,905 35,883 36,887 37,920 38,982 Williams 9.5% < to 2015 Growth Rate Projected County Growth Rate 2.8% McKenzie 6,360 12,826 10,996 11,282 11,575 11,876 12,185 12,502 12,827 13, % 2.6% Mountrail Dunn Stark 7,673 10,331 9,782 10,027 10,277 10,534 10,797 11,067 11,344 11, % 2.5% 3,536 4,646 4,399 4,500 4,604 4,710 4,818 4,929 5,042 5, % 2.3% 24,199 32,154 30,372 31,253 32,159 33,092 34,051 35,039 36,055 37, % 2.9% From NDSU VisionWest webinars supported by WDEA.

4 COUNTY to CITY POPULATION PROJECTIONS Moderate Price Scenario Participating City * Projected City Growth Rate Williston 14,716 26,997 26,668 27,415 28,182 28,971 29,783 30,616 31,474 32, % % Share of County** -> 66% 76% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% Watford City 1,744 6,708 6,598 7,333 7,871 8,313 8,651 9,001 9,364 9, % 27% 52% 60% 65% 68% 70% 71% 72% 73% 74% Stanley 1,458 2,721 2,641 2,707 2,878 2,950 3,239 3,320 3,517 3, % 19% 26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 30% 30% 31% 31% Tioga 1,230 2,400 2,249 2,312 2,377 2,443 2,871 2,951 3,034 3, % 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% Killdeer 751 1,254 1,232 1,260 1,335 1,366 1,445 1,479 1,563 1, % 21% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 31% Dickinson 17,787 23,765 22,779 23,440 24,441 25,150 26,220 26,980 28,123 28, % 74% 74% 75% 75% 76% 76% 77% 77% 78% 78% *2015 County and City values based on "American Community Survey 2015 Population Estimate" **State-wide, Metros range between 69 percent and 88 percent of County populations

5 Staffing and Organizational Changes

CITY STAFFING AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES Historical

240 208 181 120 132 146 156 146 145 2006 2007 2008 2009

and City expansion has placed significant service demands

6 CITY STAFFING AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES Historical Employee Growth Population growth and City expansion has placed significant service demands on the City of Williston in order to meet the needs of the Industry 6

CITY STAFFING AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 GROWTH BY DEPARTMENT 0 2006 2007 2008

7 CITY STAFFING AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES GROWTH BY DEPARTMENT Airport Fire Other General Governemental Police E-911 Public Works 7

8 CITY STAFFING AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES Key Organizational Structure Changes Fire Department: Transition from more paid than volunteer positions began in 2014, and transition is still in process Staffing 3 fire stations led to expanded command structure, hiring and training has been a challenge Williston Fire Department conducted its own fire recruitment and training program for the first time in 2017 Police Department: Grown to approximately 55 personnel with an active drug task force, K-9 unit and SORT team Growth in dispatch positions City Administrator: Position discussion began over 5 years ago Key need to address the future growth of the community and the associated complexities of proactively running an organization that provides a highly diverse mix of municipal services Position filled in November of

9 CITY STAFFING AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES Key Organizational Structure Changes Cont. Human Resources Director: With increased staff counts across all departments, the HR scope of duties has expanded drastically New position filled in May 2017 Development Services: Williston Center for Development established to house Planning and Zoning, Building Department, Code Enforcement, and Economic Development Allows staff to work together more efficiently to address the growth and development needs of the community Other Changes being Considered in the Future: Dedicated City Assessing (currently a shared service with County) Information Technology 9

10 10-Years of Infrastructure Improvements for Oil and Gas Development

11 WILLISTON 2006

12 WILLISTON

13 DEVELOPMENT AND BACKBONE INFRASTRUCTURE

14 DEVELOPMENT AND BACKBONE INFRASTRUCTURE

15 CITY BACKBONE INFRASTRUCTURE Backbone Infrastructure Expansion and Renewal Highlights: $143M in Total Investments since 2010 $96M in Other Revenue Sources Utilized Investments Included: 23.8 Miles of Water Main 21.7 Miles of New Sewer 33.8 Miles of New Street Construction and Renewal

WILLISTON MAJOR FACILITY INVESTMENTS Over $283M in Facility Investments Since 2006 Fire #3: $5.5M Fire #1 Renovations: $3.5M Fire #2: $6M Airport Terminal and Hangar Improvements: $6.

16 WILLISTON MAJOR FACILITY INVESTMENTS Over $283M in Facility Investments Since 2006 Fire #3: $5.5M Fire #1 Renovations: $3.5M Fire #2: $6M Airport Terminal and Hangar Improvements: $6.2M Development Services Center: $5.5M Landfill Expansions: $5.2M Water Treatment Plant Expansions: $80M *Joint WAWSA Investment City Hall Renovations: $1.5M Law Enforcement Center Improvements: $45M *Joint County Investment Water Resource Recovery Facility: $125M

17 WATER RESOURCE RECOVERY FACILITY 2017 Completion of a new 5.4 MGD Water Resource Recovery Facility First facility in ND to achieve Class A level of biosolids Supports a population of 60,000 $125M State Revolving Fund Loan

18 WILLISTON WTP Water Treatment Plant Expansions: Partnering between the City and WAWSA to improve and expand $80M Total invested through WAWSA Since 2006 Capacity has tripled from 7 million gallons per day (MGD) Expansion allows the City to treat up to 21 MGD

WILLISTON LANDFILL Landfill Expansion: Cell 4 Expansion in 2009 - $650K Cells

19 WILLISTON LANDFILL Landfill Expansion: Cell 4 Expansion in $650K Cells 5 and 6 Currently Under Construction - $4.5M Other Key Numbers of Consideration?

20 CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT Development Services Center: Relocation of Planning, Building, Economic Development, and Convention and Visitors Bureau $5.5M Renovation of Existing Hess Property Opened in 2015

21 WILLISTON FIRE STATIONS Fire Station Investments: Major Remodel and Construction of 2 New Stations $3.5M Renovation of Existing Station # $11.5M on 2 new stations (2016/2017) on west end and north end of City to accommodate expanded service area

22 LAW ENFORCEMENT EXPANSIONS Law Enforcement Center Expansions in Cooperation with Williams County: $15M Expansion in 2008 $25M Expansion Including Jail Currently Under Construction $5M Court House Renovation Under Construction

23 CITY HALL RENOVATIONS City Hall Renovations: $1.5M Renovation Completed in 2017 Modernizing and Reconfiguring Administrative Spaces following Transfer of Departments to Development Center

24 EXISTING AIRPORT IMPROVEMENTS Airport Improvement Highlights: $3.2M Renovation of Terminal Completed in 2006 $3.0M City Hangar Completed in????

25 Upcoming Major Capital Improvement Needs

26 CIP NEEDS WILLISTON

27 CIP CORRIDOR COMPLETION Transportation Needs Highlights: Numerous corridor extensions to improve connectivity of transportation network in growth areas Corridor Connectivity through Sloulin Field Upgrade of one roadway damaged by oilfield truck traffic (Need east truck bypass!) Estimated cost of improvements is $82.6M

28 CIP WILLISTON INTERNATIONAL - XWA New Airport (Terminal, Runways, Utilities, Access, etc.) Highlights: $240M Project Minimum of $60M in Local Financing Expected Groundbreaking in Late 2016 Target Opening Late 2019 First New Airport Siting in United States in 12 years

29 CIP SLOULIN FIELD REDEVELOPMENT Airport Redevelopment Highlights: 800 Acre Redevelopment to be Undertaken with XWA Commissioning City is Currently Studying Highest and Best Use of Property Proceeds from Land Sales to Offset XWA Project Costs

30 CIP PUBLIC WORKS FACILITY Public Works Facility Improvement Highlights: Expanding from current 47,000 s.f. facility to 130,000 s.f. of future space Aquired land from Williams County after their relocation First phase of construction proceeding at a cost of $4M Future phase estimated to cost $20-25M (alternatives under consideration)

31 CIP FUTURE CITY HALL INVESTMENTS City Hall Expansion Highlights: Land aquistion of adjacent property to accommodate future expansion Renovation of first floor office space planned in coming years (~$1M) Future study of space needs to be conducted

32 Overview and Recent History of Major Revenue Sources and Uses

33 CITY S GUIDING PRINCIPALS FOR BOOM TIME BUDGETING Work diligently to Minimize the Impact on Existing Residents and Businesses to Support Industry Development Allow Voters to Have a Say in how they would like to Generate the Revenues Required to Meet the Needs Provide Industry Support Spending before General Government Expansion Work closely with the State to ensure understanding and support of impacts and benefits from investment at the local level 33

OVERVIEW OF MAJOR REVENUE SOURCES Major Revenue Sources - 2017 Budget State

Streams $30,000,000 $17,364,865 $7,433,000 $10,000,000 Property Tax Utility

34 OVERVIEW OF MAJOR REVENUE SOURCES Major Revenue Sources Budget State Allocations: GPT In Lieu of Property Tax $2,023,275 $4,823,155 Local Revenue Streams $30,000,000 $17,364,865 $7,433,000 $10,000,000 Property Tax Utility Revenues Sales Tax -Infrastructure Sales Tax - Public Safety GPT State Aid 34

35 EXISTING CITY SALES TAX OVERVIEW 1% City Infrastructure/Economic Development Sales Tax: Original Allocations - 75% Infrastructure / 25% Economic Development In 2013, the City issued $100M in Sales Tax backed Infrastructure Bonds allocation of the sales tax was adjusted to 93.75% towards debt payment to these bonds, and the remaining 6.25% to Economic Development Sunsets in % Shared County/City Sales Tax for Public Safety and Emergency Services: County Wide Sales Tax Enacted in 2015 Williston Receives 50% of the proceeds Critical revenue to meet the growing service and facility needs for Police, Fire, PSAP, and Ambulance Services Sunsets in 2025 Recent Other Voter Enacted Local Sales Taxes: Middle School Bond Referendum: 1% - Expired? Jail Bond Referendum: 0.5% - Expired? Park District Funding: 1.0% - Currently in Effect 35

36 HISTORICAL SALES TAX REVENUES Infrastructure Sales Tax: Pre-Boom used to support infrastructure maintenance and replacement projects Increase in collections allowed for transition to support the large needs of new backbone infrastructure such as new streets, sewer and water lines Public Safety Sales Tax: Eases what would have been a significant burden on General Fund for core Police, Fire, Ambulance, and 911 services $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $ Infrastructure Economic Develoment Public Safety 36

37 PROPERTY TAX REVENUES Taxable Value $160,000,000 $140,000,000 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $ $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $- Increase in Valuations vs. Increase in Revenues Required Property Tax Revenue

17 48.85 $85,849 39.55 $134,089 $152,092 $123,748 90 80 70 60 50 40 $60,000 $51,541 31.83 30.99 31.

38 PROPERTY TAX REVENUES Significant Increase in Valuation has Driven Down the Required Mill Levy to Meet Budgetary Needs $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80, (City Budgets to a Dollar Amount Not Mills) $85, $134,089 $152,092 $123, $60,000 $51, $40,000 $23,282 $27,764 $30,041 $34, $20, $ Value of One Mill City Mill Levy 38

PROPERTY TAX IMPACTS COMMERCIAL Sample Commercial Property Valuation 2007

$800,000 Combined Property Tax Increase* Mill Levy - City, County, School

00 300.00 183.84 $8,000 $6,000 $4,242 200.00 $4,000 100.00 $2,000 0.

39 PROPERTY TAX IMPACTS COMMERCIAL Sample Commercial Property Valuation 2007 $203,000 Valuation Increase 2016 $761,600 $0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 Combined Property Tax Increase* Mill Levy - City, County, School Combined Property Tax Bill City, County, School* $7, $8,000 $6,000 $4, $4, $2, $ City County School City County School *Not Including 12% State Property Tax Relief 39

PROPERTY TAX IMPACTS - RESIDENTIAL Sample Residential

$218,800 Combined Property Tax Increase* $0 $50,000 $100,000

00 Combined Mill Levy - City, County, School 417.97 183.

School* $1,420 $1,853 200.00 $1,000 100.00 $500 0.

40 PROPERTY TAX IMPACTS - RESIDENTIAL Sample Residential Property Valuation 2007 $75,500 Valuation Increase 2016 $218,800 Combined Property Tax Increase* $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250, Combined Mill Levy - City, County, School $2,000 $1,500 Combined Property Tax Bill City, County, School* $1,420 $1, $1, $ $ City County School City County School *Not Including 12% State Property Tax Relief 40

PROPERTY TAXES Mill Levy Corrections Impacts of

Disregarding Budgetary Needs, if City Mill levy

have been the impact to the property tax bills

Sample Residential Property Property Tax Bill -

Bill - City $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300

$3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500

41 PROPERTY TAXES Mill Levy Corrections Impacts of No-Change in Mill? Disregarding Budgetary Needs, if City Mill levy was held constant at 2007 levels, what would have been the impact to the property tax bills for the sample properties? Sample Residential Property Property Tax Bill - City Sample Commercial Property Property Tax Bill - City $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Actual Example $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Actual Example City Mill: City Mill:

42 PROPERTY TAXES vs. GPT REVENUE No Change in 2007 Mill Levy would have done little to replace the value of GPT the City receives: Property Tax Revenue vs GPT Revenue $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,414,632 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $ Property Tax Example at Mills 2017 Budgeted GPT 42

43 TOTAL UTILITY REVENUES $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $ Budget Water Sewer Refuse Landfill *Excludes transfers from other funds and debt proceeds 43

UTILITY RATE REVENUE SUFFICIENCY With significant operational changes being realized in the City s Water and Sewer Funds, existing rates are not projected to be sufficient into the future: Projected

44 UTILITY RATE REVENUE SUFFICIENCY With significant operational changes being realized in the City s Water and Sewer Funds, existing rates are not projected to be sufficient into the future: Projected 2023 Water Rate Revenue Deficit from 6-Cities Study Projected 2023 Sewer Rate Revenue Deficit from 6-Cities Study The City is currently discussing the completion of comprehensive rate studies to determine best way to approach projected deficits 44

45 GROSS PRODUCTION TAX Gross Production Tax revenue as an in lieu of Property Tax is the most significant source of revenue the City utilizes to minimize the impacts of Oil Gas (O&G) Development on the City Early in the Boom, the City spent significant local resources in the form of $100M worth of Sales Tax backed infrastructure debt prior to Hub City formula changes GPT formula changes that recognized the impacts on Hub Cities have brought the resources required for Williston to continue to be the service center for O&G Development Predictable GPT Funding moving forward will be the key to backing existing and future debt issuance to deliver the infrastructure to serve the long-term needs of the Industry 45

46 GROSS PRODUCTION TAX City Allocation vs. State Oil Production $40,000,000 $35,000,000 Current Funding will allow City to continue to Deliver Key Infrastructure and Back Existing and Additional Debt Issuances 1,400,000 1,200,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 Delayed Timing of Key Formula Changes required CIty to Dedicate Significant Sales Tax Early in the Boom 1,000, , , ,000 $5,000, ,000 $ Williston GPT State-Wide BOPD 46

47 GROSS PRODUCTION TAX GPT and Debt: 6-Cities Study Forecast GPT is Dedicated Source of Repayment for WRRF Debt: GPT is Proposed Source of Repayment for XWA Debt: Funding for Future Facility and Transportation Improvements: 47

48 Planning for the Future: 6-Cities Study Financial Gap Analysis Results

Dickinson Tioga Stanley Killdeer Further projected population increases are expected to place additional service demands

49 WDEA 6-Cities Study Results Completed Early 2017 Capital and Operational Forecasting and Financial Gap Analysis Study Funded 50/50 by WDEA and Participating Cities Impacts Forecasts for Six Participating Cities Williston Watford City Dickinson Tioga Stanley Killdeer Further projected population increases are expected to place additional service demands on each city Impacts to include the expansion of infrastructure and operations that will be required to meet the needs of each community.

50 NDSU POPULATION AND WORKFORCE STUDY Impacts forecasting based on adaptations from workforce and population analyses performed by North Dakota State University with support by WDEA through VisionWest ND NDSU Study Focused on County-level Economic Activity in the Region and Effect on Workforce and Population through 2040 OIL PRICE JOBS PEOPLE HOUSING

51 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS EXPENSE PROFORMA Incorporation of 2017 Budget Incorporation of CIP Projections Incorporation of Benchmark Based Staffing and Fleet Projections Application of Inflationary or Growth-based Escalation Factors 51

52 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS MAJOR REVENUE PROJECTIONS Sales Tax Oil & Gas Production Tax Distribution Property Tax Utility Rate Revenue based upon projected growth in user base Application of inflationary or growth based escalation factors for minor revenue sources (i.e. fees, permits, misc revenues) 52

53 BENCHMARKING Regional analysis looking at operational levels of service from communities similar in size to and on the growth trajectory of Williston Operational levels based on metrics of population, utility accounts, infrastructure miles, and facilities operated Updated Williston s Benchmark data with updated metrics to use as basis for future staffing and fleet projections 53

BENCHMARKING RESULTS EMPLOYEE GROWTH 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 120 132 146 146 145 156 181 208 240 273 2023 Staffing Needs = 72 Additional FTE Historical and Projected Employee Growth 288 323

54 BENCHMARKING RESULTS EMPLOYEE GROWTH Staffing Needs = 72 Additional FTE Historical and Projected Employee Growth Projected Projected Total Annual Cost for New FTE $767K $2.1M $4.6M $5.1M $6.2M $6.7M 54

55 SALES TAX REVENUE Developed sales tax revenue projections based on historical correlation analysis regarding development and projected taxable sales and purchases Projected Sales Tax Revenue Projections (Total) Growth Rate (Growth in Taxable Sales = Sales Tax Growth) $13.3M $17.1M $24.9M $26.0M $27.3M $28.5M $29.7M $30.1M 28% 46% 4% 5% 4% 5% 1% 55

56 GROSS PRODUCTION TAX GPT Revenue Projections Based on Most Recent Forecast Provided by NDDMR consistent with OPEC Projections: Average Production of 1.1 MM Barrels per Day across period Projected Jan 2018 price of $45/barrel (WTI)* Growing by $5/barrel/year thereafter Total $29.24M $26.81M $28.63M $30.49M $32.30M $33.12M $34.71M *10% Bakken Discount 56

57 PROPERTY TAX REVENUE Baseline annual Property Tax Revenue projections based on the following: Previous year s end of year projected taxable value Projected Increase in Valuation based on projected building activity 4% annual increase in valuation for prior year s in-place tax base Estimated 5% maximum annual property tax increase to in-place tax base Value of one Mill $152,092 $165,328 $175,051 $185,946 $200,008 $214,340 $229,007 $243,970 Property Tax Revenue* $4.71M $5.13M $5.43M $5.76M $6.20M $6.64M $7.10M $7.56M *Property Tax Revenue Assuming Mill is Maintained at or Near Current Levels 57

58 REVENUE WILLISTON

59 DEBT PROFILING - WILLISTON

60 CITY FUND GAP ANALYSIS BASELINE SCENARIO Baseline Analysis Includes: Utility rate revenue projections with no rate increases Cash funding of Infrastructure CIP projects without a designated funding source Currently Unassigned Revenue Gross Production Tax, City Sales Tax 60

61 FUNDING GAP - WILLISTON

Six Cities Impacts Forecasting

Six Cities Impacts Forecasting Executive Summary January 9, 2017 STUDY SCOPE Study Funded 50/50 by WDEA and Participating Cities Impacts Forecasts for Six Participating Cities Williston Watford City Dickinson