Facing Tomorrow's Job Martet

Transcription

1 Facing Tomorrow's Job Martet Euler Hermes Axel Olesen, Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies

2 Trends and challenges of tomorrow's job market? What will the job market look like in the future? And which qualities and competences will the companies be looking for? Employability - how do you make yourself attractive to current or future employers?

3 Who are we? Private non-profit organization Founded in 1970 by former OECD Secretary-General Thorkil Kristensen Cross-disciplinary think tank humanists, economists, natural scientists, and others Membership-based 130 members 32 employees Oslo, Stavanger, Stockholm, Brussels Future Club

4 1. The medium-term is tomorrow The risk of loosing your leadership position has doubled in the last 20 years Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Huyett/Vigurie

5 2. Existing competitors mean nothing

6 Be interested in other things than business

7 3. The far horizon is the only sure thing Kvadratmeterprisen på parcelhuse K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K K Kilde: Realkreditrådet

8 15 Megatrends 1. Knowledge 2. New technology 3. Acceleration 4. Hypercomplexity 5. Globalisation 6. Commercialisation 7. Affluence 8. Democratisation 9. Polarisation 10.Immaterialisation 11.Individualisation 12.Networks 13.Health 14.Environment 15.Ageing Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence Consequence

9 Write down the consequences for yourself

10 If you are around 25 today You are probably going to work the next 50 years You will probably experience much more change than your parents You are probably having a pitstop in 25 years You will live in a world with less geographical differences You will live in a world with 10 times as much knowledge as today

11 If you are around 25 today You will live in a multi-polar world With low global unemployment and shortage of labor But less emphasis on work And less youth-focused And you will have colleagues who are 80 years old You won t be travelling that much

12 Talent growing in importance 70% of US jobs created in are tacit: Complex Interactions High education High level of judgement Intangible assets share of S&P 500 market value %

13 Talented and tacit

14 0IBM Dominance = paradigm1095?1google Microsoft

15 Brand yourself

16 In the future computers will weigh as little as 1,5 tons Popular Mechanics, 1949 There is a global market for app. five computers Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943 There is no reason why anybody should have a computer in their home Ken Olsen, Digital Equipment, k should be sufficient for everybody Bill Gates, 1981

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18 Short versus long term definitions 1 week 1 month 1 quarter 1 year 2 years 5-10 years 10 + Short term 6% 16% 45% 29% 3% 0% 0% Long term 0% 0% 4% 18% 40% 33% 3% Chuck Martin: Managing for the Short Term, N.Y >1500 companies, >50 countries

19 The risk of loosing your leadership position has doubled in the last 20 years Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Huyett/Vigurie

20 Number of years from introduction to 10 mio. users Pagers Telephone Cable Fax VCR Mobile phones PC CDROM Drive WWW Skype

21 80% of CEOs would cut expenditures on R&D and marketing to ensure that they met their quarterly earnings targets Even if they believed that the cuts were destroying long term value Source: Dobbs, Leslie, Mendonca. McKQ 05

22 Who will survive? It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change (Charles Darwin)

23 Required Leadership Skills Ethical decision Making Global Awareness Paying attention Adaptability Building and mending rel.ships. Coaching Driving Innovation Influence without Authority Building Effective Teams Change Leadership Collaboration across boundaries

24 Stay adaptable to change

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30 Offshoring will be over soon

31 Global Work Force % Tertiary education Secondary education Less than secondary International Migration by Educational Attainment ( ) - Release 1.1 Frédéric Docquiera;c and Abdeslam Marfoukb;c a National Fund for Scienti c Research, IRES, Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium), World Bank (USA) and IZA (Germany) b Free University of Brussels (Belgium) c IWEPS, Regional government of Wallonia (Belgium) March 2005

32 Source: The Economist 2006 Global talents Cost of an indian graduate compared to US graduate: 12% Supposedly seen at an indian GE Capital office building Indian graduates work 2350 hours US graduates work 1900 hours German graduates work 1700 hours

33 Global talents But: Wage inflation in the indian IT sector: 16% Shortfall of professionals in 2010: Some good universities Many bad universities 13% of LDC talent is capable of working for an MNC 10% of chinese engeneers are capable to work for a MNC Supposedly seen at an indian GE Capital office building Source: The Economist 2006

34 Required Leadership Skills Ethical decision Making Global Awareness Paying attention Adaptability Building and mending rel.ships. Coaching Driving Innovation Influence without Authority Building Effective Teams Change Leadership Collaboration across boundaries

35 The global brain drain Emigration rates worldwide: Low-skilled: 0,9% Medium-skilled: 1,6% High-skilled: 5,5% Brain drain perceived as bad for LDCs New research: More focus on education in LDC due to bigger pay offs from education Return migration after having aquired additional skills in the DCs The creation of business and trade networks between LDCs and DCs

36 Net Brain Gain In % of working-aged residents US 5,4-0,1 0,4 EU 15 Scan din avia -1 De nm ark 11,4 10,7 Australia Ca nad a International Migration by Educational Attainment ( ) - Release 1.1 Frédéric Docquiera;c and Abdeslam Marfoukb;c a National Fund for Scienti c Research, IRES, Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium), World Bank (USA) and IZA (Germany) b Free University of Brussels (Belgium) c IWEPS, Regional government of Wallonia (Belgium) March 2005 Note: Based on skilled workers. Stock not flow. Many shortcomings in the data material

37 Stay adaptable to change

38 End of offshoring + Climate crisis + hunt for talents:

39 Danish companies 1

40 Danish companies 2

41 Danish companies 3

42 Danish companies 4

43 Danish companies 5

44 GDP per. capita US$ (PPP) , , , , , , , ,00 0, Source: CIA, UN China India Brazil United States Denmark Italy

45 % answering Very important Family Work Friends Leisure Source: Danskernes værdier (2002) time Politics Religion

46 If you are ambitious, you are different

47 Consumer confidence, Denmark1987M011989M031991M051993M081995M101997M101999M102001M102003M102005M102007M

48 Don t panic, but remember that the labor market is a market

49 World population ,6 billions 0, ,5 billions 0,47 0,52 0,82 0,71 0,60 (7%) ,96 1,09 1,22 (14%) 3,3 3,6 (56%) 3,9 4,1 4,3 4,5 4,7 4,8 4,9 (57%) 2,4 2,4 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 (37%) 0-19 (29%) Source: UN

50 EU 25 population projection % ource: Eurostat Baseline Variant ttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

51 Population Forecast China % 80% 73,05% 70,51% 80,00% 60% 48,36% 50,65% 40% 20% 18,92% 14,05% 29,86% 19,27% 39,37% 36,10% 24,67% 12,73% 0% -20% -40% 1,16% ,47% -13,20% -18,58% -17,70% -23,38% Source: UN

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54 The new phases of life (CIFS ca. 1995) Ca Dependent Free One I Independent Parenthood & Career Free One II Senior Dependent Elderly Ca. 2020

55 Updated phases of life Free One I Parenthood Career Free Always Free One II Depen- dent young Inde- pendent young Inde- pendent elderly Depen- dent elderly Ca. 2007

56 Boston Consulting 2007

57 Change USA Time

58 Change USA Scandinavia Time

59 The future arrives faster than you think!