ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

Transcription

1 ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND INTELLIGENCE REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2013 JANUARY-MARCH 2013 Enterprise ilembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: Fax:

2 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 FOREWORD This intelligence report comprises of an assessment of key economic indicators for the ilembe District for the first quarter of 2013, i.e. January to March This is the 9th edition of the quarterly reports, which are unique to ilembe as we are the only district municipality to publish such a report. The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist Enterprise ilembe in driving its mandate, which is to drive economic development and promote trade and investment in the District of ilembe. News this quarter is on DCOGTA s tour of EI s most successful projects where the HOD said that she was extremely pleased with the progress made and that she was impressed by the calibre and quality of the projects being implemented by Enterprise ilembe. It also provides an update on the Ballito Urban Improvement Precinct or Special Ratings Area which will go ahead if two critical amendments are made to local policy regarding to SRA: Commercial / business categorisation - support for establishment, property value and amendment of SRA boundaries be set at a 51% (a opposed to 90% currently); Residential categorisation - support for establishment, property value and amendment of SRA boundaries be set at a 66% (as opposed to 90% currently) You can also read an update on Enterprise ilembe s projects and marketing activities. Indaba 2013 is around the corner and Enterprise ilembe has secured its own 21m 2 stand this year to market the North Coast to over delegates attending from across the world. Other indicators that are updated quarterly include business confidence in the tourism industry and in other businesses, number of tourists who visit the tourism information centre in Ballito, building plans, water and electricity connections, employment indicators for the province, port, airport passenger, and vehicle growth. If there are any further quarterly or annual indicators that would be useful to business and investors please contact Cheryl from Enterprise ilembe: cheryl@enterpriseilembe.co.za 2

3 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Table of Contents Foreword... 2 Overview of the ilembe District Economy... 7 Latest News and Developments within ilembe... 8 Enterprise ilembe Update (Q4 2012) Section One: ilembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Quarterly Data)... 8 Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 4, Error! Bookmark not defined. Business Confidence Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza Transport Trends Tourism Trends Employment Indices for South Africa Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012) Section Two: ilembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Base Data) Demographic Profile Socio-Economic Indicators Employment Indicators The Informal Economy Production, Expenditure and Investment ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS A1.1 Population and Households A1.2 Racial Profile A1.3 HIV and AIDS A1.4 Gender Profile A1.5 Age Profile A1.6 Household Services A1.7 Household Dynamics

4 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 A1.8 Education Level A1.9 Employment and Unemployment A1.10 Employment by type and skill level A1.11 Employment by Industry A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry A1.13 Expenditure by Category A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements A1.20 Port Movements

5 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Summary of Key Indicators The table below contains a summary of the key indicators for ilembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2011, and the district indicators for 2010 for comparative purposes. In the few cases census data was available, it has been used. Table Summary of Key Economic Indicators Key Indicator ilembe KwaZulu-Natal Population ,809 10,267,300 Households 134, ,692 2,539,429 Race (%) African 90.48% 90.71% 85.64% Coloured 0.46% 0.47% 1.41% Asian 6.91% 6.67% 8.34% White 2.15% 2.15% 4.61% Gender (%) Male 48.35% 47.84% 47.69% Female 51.65% 52.16% 52.31% Age (%) 0-14 years 33.19% 34% 31.9% years 62.27% 61% 63.1% over 65 years 4.53% 5% 4.9% HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.82% 16.42% 15.68% Aids Deaths 1.27% 1.26% 1.20% Unemployment Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.39% 30.6% 33% Type of Employment (%) Youth Unemployment Rate 37.2% 42.1% Formal 78.32% 76.81% 76.98% Informal 21.68% 23.19% 23.02% Skill (%) Highly Skilled 11.32% 15.34% 18.07% Employment by Industry (%) Skilled 40.50% 39.00% 43.03% Semi and Unskilled 48.18% 45.67% 38.89% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.52% 10.16% 4.86% Mining and quarrying 0.52% 0.63% 0.80% Manufacturing 16.79% 16.47% 13.19% Electricity, gas and water 0.11% 0.11% 0.29% Construction 6.44% 6.33% 6.31% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 21.98% 21.48% 21.73% Transport, storage and communication 3.26% 3.17% 5.59% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 13.58% 13.28% 14.73% Community, social and personal services 17.19% 16.65% 16.59% General government 10.61% 11.73% 15.92% Gross Value Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.84% 4.47% 4.47% 5

6 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Key Indicator ilembe KwaZulu-Natal Added by Industry (%) Mining and quarrying 0.83% 2.14% 2.14% Manufacturing 29.17% 18.18% 18.18% Electricity, gas and water 0.93% 3.00% 3.00% Construction 2.83% 4.21% 4.21% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 14.83% 15.91% 15.91% Transport, storage and communication 7.21% 12.27% 12.27% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 19.85% 18.37% 18.37% Community, social and personal services 5.08% 7.12% 7.12% General government 9.43% 14.32% 14.32% Expenditure (%) Durable Goods 10.08% 7.90% 7.79% Domestic Fixed Investment (%) Semi-Durable Goods 13.00% 9.18% 9.09% Non-Durable Goods 36.02% 41.75% 40.80% Services 40.90% 41.16% 42.33% Buildings and construction works 32.57% 38.84% 45.24% Machinery and other equipment 49.22% 48.27% 39.45% Transport equipment 16.64% 11.49% 13.88% Transfer costs 1.58% 1.40% 1.42% Source: Quantec Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) with some Census 2011 data where available 6

7 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 OVERVIEW OF THE ILEMBE DISTRICT ECONOMY The ilembe District is situated on the east coast of South Africa, in the KwaZulu-Natal Province. ilembe is one of the 11 district municipalities of the KwaZulu-Natal province and is also the smallest District in the province, with a total population of approximately 606,809. The District covers approximately 3260 square kilometres and is divided into four local municipalities. The four municipalities are: Ndwedwe Mandeni KwaDukuza Maphumulo ilembe is located between two of Africa s busiest ports, Durban and Richards Bay, on the primary economic development corridor in the province, and is therefore well positioned not only to local, but also international markets. The recent development of King Shaka International Airport and the Dube Trade Port just a few kilometres from the southern border of ilembe has magnified what was already a prime investment destination. Despite its strategic location, ilembe faces numerous economic challenges such as the high levels of poverty in the rural inland areas, which contrasts with rapid development along its coastal regions. The District has been proactive in developing Enterprise ilembe, a broad based institution aimed at facilitating local economic development, in response to its challenges of high rates of unemployment and correspondingly high levels of poverty. 7

8 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 SECTION ONE: ECONOMIC INDICATORS-UPDATED QUARTERLY Latest News and Developments within ilembe Department of Co-operative Governance & Traditional Affairs showcases Enterprise ilembe projects The HOD for the Department of Co-Operative Governance & Traditional Affairs Ms. Desiree Nonhlanhla Qhobosheane led her team along with representatives from various municipalities from across KZN; and the local Amakhosi on site visits to the various projects that Enterprise ilembe are currently implementing. The purpose of the visit was two-fold; firstly to view progress of the projects and secondly to showcase to other municipalities the success stories in ilembe District. DCOGTA is one of Enterprise ilembe s largest funders for projects and these include the ilembe Agri-Processing Hubs and Facility, the ilembe Vineyards and Winery and the Biodiesel Processing facility amongst others. The HOD said that she was extremely pleased with the progress made and that she was impressed by the calibre and quality of the projects being implemented by Enterprise ilembe. The next step would now be to use the competitive advantages that ilembe District has such as the locality to the Dube Trade Port for export markets she added. The delegation visited the Agri-Hubs and vineyards projects in Maphumulo and the newly built winery at Collisheen Estate. Delegates were treated to a sneak preview by tasting wine that s in the making being produced at the Winery; with grapes harvested from the ilembe vineyards. The Vineyards and Winery Project will be launched in April this year. In a recent LED Maturity Benchmarking exercise also undertaken by DCOGTA ilembe District came out first out of the 15 municipalities that participated in the assessment. Ballito Urban Improvement Precinct (UIP) Based on the Umhlanga UIP success story Trenley Tilbrook, CEO of the ilembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (ICCIT) opened exploratory discussions about establishing a UIP in Ballito with Brian Wright, the driver behind the Umhlanga UIP. This led to an extensive process of pulling together key property owners and representatives in Ballito, which resulted in a mandate from these stakeholders and ICCIT members to allow Tilbrook and Wright to open initial discussions with the municipality in September The successful outcome was the municipality adopting a resolution to research and adopt UIP policy allowing for the official establishment of a UIP. What is a UIP and what does it mean for Ballito? 8

9 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 The UIP is a private sector driven initiative which works in partnership with the municipality to optimise municipal service delivery while providing supplementary services to PUBLIC AREAS, see The aim of the UIP: Secure property values, retain existing investment and create future value Build investor and business confidence in the precinct Support vibrant business activity and economic opportunity Improve the quality of life for those whose who live, work and visit Ballito The UIP mechanism is based on the Municipal Property Rates Act of 2004, which makes provision for the establishment of what is technically termed a Special Rating Area (SRA). The SRA is a defined geographic area within which the majority of property owners agree to pay for certain services supplementary to those supplied by the municipality. The levy is collected by the municipality at no cost and paid over to the property owner Non Profit Company for delivery of services as determined by an annual Business Plan. Because the UIP mechanism is best suited to economic, tourism and mixed use nodes, there are two proposed precincts, which will be operationally managed as one integrated area under the Ballito UIP structure. These are the commercial node comprising the business park and surrounding commercial properties and the promenade node comprising all properties bordering the promenade and the commercial node on the southern end of the promenade. To formally initiate the UIP requires a Feasibility Study which focuses on public areas. The Feasibility Study is underway. Two critically important amendments to policy need to occur before the SRA can be established. These are in line with ethekwini and Cape Town best practice. Commercial / business categorisation - support for establishment, property value and amendment of SRA boundaries be set at a 51% (a opposed to 90% currently); Residential categorisation - support for establishment, property value and amendment of SRA boundaries be set at a 66% (as opposed to 90% currently) 9

10 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Enterprise ilembe Update (Q1 2013) Enterprise ilembe is the Economic Development Agency for the ilembe District responsible for Trade & Investment Promotion and Economic Development in the region. Since their inception, the agency has been responsible for an enormous amount of development and promotion within the district, which has resulted in real infrastructure and employment creation. Some examples of this development include: Agricultural Projects: Agri-processing hubs: This project involves the establishment of 8 hydroponic (tunnel) farms in the four local municipalities, and ultimately a pack-house on each site and a processing facility. Over R17 million has been invested into this project to date, 140 jobs created, and profits are already being reaped through the sale of high quality fruit and vegetables harvested. There are tunnels at Mthonsi, Bulwer, Maphumulo and Ndwedwe. The project is in the process of being transferred to a company whose shareholders will be the technical partners and co-operatives at which stage the project will be closed. Open Farms: This project involves supporting community-based co-operatives to establish viable agricultural gardens, which produce vegetables such as cabbage, butternut, potatoes, onions, etc. for both community needs and for sale in the market as processed products. 600 jobs have been retained through co-operatives across 18 farms. R1.6 million has been invested. Open farms are now also supplying local schools through the National Schools Nutrition Programme. The Agriculture Development Agency has supplied open farms with chemicals, seeds, fencing and other needs. Social facilitation and co-operative training is still required across all sites. Vineyards: ILembe Vineyard project involves the establishment of a primary Villard Blanc crop that will be grown as a catalyst to the establishment of a wine industry in the district. Vineyards in Mandeni, Maphumulo and Ndwedwe underwent a successful harvest during the month of February until March with a total of 26 tons being harvested. Thus far, 50 direct jobs have been created across the 10.1 hectares of vineyards that have been planted, and R6 million has been invested. Manufacturing/Processing Projects: Bio-diesel Manufacturing: This project aims to establish a bio diesel processing plant, delivering vehicle-grade diesel from used oil (initially) and ultimately from Moringa seed. Enterprise ilembe is currently looking for investors for this project. 10

11 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 ilembe Winery: Grapes harvested from above mentioned vineyards have been fed into the winery, the wine has finished fermenting and the stabilising and clearing process has begun. This process will take 3-4 months and approximately 8000 litres of white wine will be produced and bottled. Tourism and Marketing: Cape Getaway Show: EI represented the North Coast in partnership with Tourism KZN at the event which had over visitors. Tugela River Raft Race: Over 40 teams from all of the country took part in this Mandeni event. Liberation Heritage Route project: The Ndwedwe launched the Bhambatha Rebellion event of 4 and 5 March. This included an all-day workshops and a re-enactment of the Bhambatha Rebellion of King Shaka Tourism Route: An amount of R has been approved by DEDT for upgrade to the King Shaka Visitor Centre in KwaDukuza. The Route business and implementation plans will be workshopped with local councilors in order that there is a full understanding of the project. Indaba 2013: Enterprise ilembe has secured its own 18m 2 stand this year to market the North Coast brand to over delegates that attend from across the world. North Coast-Zululand Great Train Race 2013: The inaugural race is scheduled for 3 August For more information on these projects and a large amount of potential investment opportunities visit 11

12 Percentage of Respondents ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Business Confidence The business confidence section is made up of the ilembe BCI, which is based on surveys conducted online in the district, the national BER BCI which is also based on surveys, and the national SACCI BCI which is based on market analysis. Enterprise ilembe Business Survey Both the business and tourism surveys are conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to businesses that are registered with the ilembe Business Chamber, and businesses on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). There are no criteria for businesses to take part in the business survey (other than they must be located in ilembe). Business Confidence Business confidence is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing business conditions. The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 1 of 2013 is 7.0, which means that 70% of respondents are satisfied with the business conditions. The index has decreased slightly by 2 points from quarter when it was 7.2. This still remains the highest since the commencement of this survey as is portrayed in the graph below Business Confidence Trend Q Q Q Q Q Q Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Prevailing Business Conditions Businesses were asked to indicate movement (increase, decrease, no change) in certain indicators within their business in quarter 1, 2013 compared with quarter 4, As shown in the graph below, the majority of respondents said that their business conditions had remained unchanged (between 45% and 55%). The remainder was spread between improved and worsened conditions (between 30% and 25% respectively). The 12

13 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 most positive results were for the demand of goods and services which 35% of businesses say has increased in quarter 1 (largely seasonal). Perhaps worrying is that 30% of businesses saying that the number of people employed had decreased this quarter. The largest constraints to business growth in quarter 1 differ from quarter These are the lack of marketing, costs of rates/property, and lack of attractions. Future Expectations Businesses were asked to estimate movement in indicators within their business in the next quarter (2 2013) in comparison to the current quarter (1 2013). The vast majority of businesses stated that all indicators will either stay the same or improve in quarter This is in line with the high business confidence. 13

14 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Business Profile The majority of businesses this quarter are in the construction and manufacturing industries. 59% of respondents are part of the ilembe Business Chamber. The graphs below describe the number of full time staff, average annual turnover and location of businesses who responded. The majority of businesses (52%) have less than 5 staff members, with 9% having staff. The majority of businesses turn over between R2million to R10million (13%), and R to R2million (49%) annually. This profile suggests that the majority of respondents are small businesses who reside in greater Ballito. Number of Employees Less than 5 3% 15% 5 to 10 9% 21% 52% 11 to to % 16% Annual Turn Over Less than R Over 100 3% R to R2million Mandeni 8% Location of Business 13% 49% R2million to R10million R10million to R30million Over R30million KwaDukuza 26% Ballito 66% SACCI Business Confidence Index The SACCI BCI reflects that Business Confidence is the same in February as recorded in December at 93 points. Given that 2010 is the current BCI base year (at 100 points), the deterioration to an average of 94.1 for 2012 after averaging 119 in 2006 gives an indication of the extent of decrease of local business confidence in recent years. 14

15 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Source: South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry Business Confidence Index (December 2012) Press Release The BER/RMB Business Confidence Index The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) has increased to 52 in the first quarter of Sentiment improved in four of the five sectors making up the composite index. Retail was the exception from the improvement where confidence dropped a large 54 to 50 index point during the first quarter. There was a slight improvement in the business mood among manufacturers, with the index climbing by four points to 42. The Business confidence for new vehicle dealers increased by twelve points to 66, wholesale index improved by fourteen points to 71. Source: 15

16 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Key Findings: Business Confidence The ilembe Business Confidence Index for Quarter 1 of 2013 is 7.0 which means that 70% of respondents are satisfied with the business conditions. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) has increased to 52 in the first quarter of 2013 The SACCI BCI reflects that Business Confidence is the same in February as recorded in December at 93 points. Given that 2010 is the current BCI base year (at 100 points), the deterioration to an average of 94.1 for 2012 after averaging 119 in 2006 gives an indication of the extent of decrease of local business confidence in recent years. 16

17 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza The following section looks at the total area of building plans approved, submitted and completed; the number of new water connection made; and the number of new single phase and triple phase electricity connections made over the last year in KwaDukuza. KwaDukuza has been chosen because it represents the majority of activity in ilembe. Building Plans, KwaDukuza The graph below shows the total value (millions of rand) of building plans (including additions, alterations and deviations) approved, submitted and completed since January The total value of building plans approved in Quarter 1 was R246 million, the total value submitted was R402 million, and the total value completed was R200.2 million. Completions and approvals have dropped in quarter 1 which has been the trend over the previous two years too. Submissions increased which is positive for development in Source: KwaDukuza, info for July and September 2011 not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations The table below gives a breakdown of the total area (m 2 ) of approvals, submissions and completions this year. Reside ntial APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Comm ercial Indust rial Total* Reside ntial Commer cial Industri al Total* Reside ntial Comme rcial Indust rial Total* Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

18 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Reside ntial APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Comm ercial Indust rial Total* Reside ntial Commer cial Industri al Total* Reside ntial Comme rcial Indust rial Total* Aug Sep Oct 12 8, ,320 4, , ,238 Nov ,953 7,363 5,215 2,105 16, ,331 Dec12 4, ,940 8,885 5, , ,386 Jan Feb Mar Source: KwaDukuza, info for July and September 2011 not supplied New water connections, KwaDukuza The graph below describes the number of new water connections made in KwaDukuza since the beginning of The number of water connections in quarter was 99, decreased by 22% from 127 water connections in Q The number of water connections has been decreasing gradually since the beginning of Source: KwaDukuza New electricity connections, KwaDukuza The graphs show the number of new single and three phase electricity connections for KwaDukuza. The number of new single phase connections represents the number of new small residential (3 bedroom house) and low cost housing (including prepaid connections). The graph shows a substantial decrease in single phase connections between quarter and quarter Connections have decreased to the lowest in three years (19 new connections). The number of three phase connections represents larger, upmarket urban houses (with air conditioning etc.). Three phase connections have levelled back to 5 this quarter. The number of maximum demand connections (commercial and industrial buildings) is 0 this quarter, which is lower than it has been since This suggests a possible decrease in commercial development. 18

19 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter Single Phase Electricity Connections, KwaDukuza Three Phase Electricity Connections, KwaDukuza Source: KwaDukuza Key Findings: Building Plans and new service connections, KwaDukuza Building plan completion and approvals declined this quarter, however, submissions increased which is positive for development to come. The number of water connections in quarter was 99, decreased by 22% from 127 water connections in Q The number of water connections has been decreasing gradually since the beginning of The number of three phase and single phase electricity connections has decreased again this quarter, and there were no maximum demand connections. Overall, connections are the lowest they have been since quarter

20 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Transport Trends This section describes trends in road vehicles, airport trends and port movements within ilembe, the province and nationally. Vehicle Registrations The figure below indicates the quarter-to-quarter new additional vehicle registrations per licencing district, while the table below shows the total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district. This is a good reflection on sales and economic activity in these areas. In KwaDukuza, vehicle registrations increased by 796 vehicles to 40,769 which is the highest increase in two years. New vehicle registrations in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe declined by 17 and 9 respectively. Source: The table below shows the total number of vehicles registered in Maphumulo, KwaDukuza and Ndwedwe. There has been a decline in Ndwedwe and Maphumulo while steady growth takes place in KwaDukuza. Maphumulo currently has 731, Ndwedwe 441, and KwaDukuza at 40,769 vehicles registered to be on the road. 20

21 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Table: Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district Total Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>3500kg,not to draw) Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>3500kg,equp to draw) Light Load Vehicle (GVM 3500kg or less) Heavy passenger mv (12 or more persons) Light passenger MV(less than 12 persons) Minibus Motorcycle/Motor tricycle/quadrucycle Maphumulo Q Q Q Q Q Ndwedwe Q Q Q Q Q Stanger Q ,165 1,435 1,171 10, , , Q ,803 1,435 1,182 10, , , Q ,314 1,414 1,190 10, , , Q ,973 1,432 1,184 10, , , Q ,769 1,428 1,203 11, , ,002 1, Special Vehicle Unknown KZN TOTAL Q2-12 1,413,631 39,602 37, ,799 6, ,269 46,731 33,623 39,590 2,182 Q3-12 1,428,169 39,411 38, ,490 7, ,266 46,823 34,077 39,690 2,188 Q4-12 1,439,026 39,061 38, ,425 7, ,852 46,937 34,358 39,657 2,194 Q1-13 1,455,173 38,665 38, ,347 7, ,137 47,048 34,530 39,610 2,187 Source: 21

22 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Airport Passenger Movement Passenger numbers for quarter were not available for this issue so quarter data was used in its place. King Shaka International Airport lies on the North Coast and is only approximately 13km from Ballito and therefore has a direct impact on the local economy. The graph below describes the number of passengers per quarter for each of the international airports. King Shaka International experiences the least passenger traffic at an average of passengers per month out of the three international airports. Passenger numbers in Durban have increased by 1% to , passenger numbers in O.R Tambo have decreased by 5% to and passenger numbers in Cape Town have increased by 11.4% to in quarter 4 of Passenger numbers through all three airports are lower in quarter than they were in quarter Source: Port Movements Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa. This is economically significant for ilembe because ilembe is situated between these two ports and therefore, the activity of these two ports is a good gage of economic activity in the area in general. The table below gives figures for total cargo handled, number of vessel calls and gross tonnage of vessels for the previous year in Durban, Richards Bay and South Africa. The figures in red show a decrease from the previous quarter and the figures in green show an increase. In Richards Bay cargo handled increased to , the total number of vessels increased to 458 and gross tonnage increased to in quarter 1 of In Durban the total cargo handled decreased to , total number of vessels dropped to 940 and gross 22

23 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 tonnage of vessels decreased to in quarter 1. Total cargo in South Africa decreased slightly to , total number of vessels increased to 2832 and gross tonnage of vessels increased to in quarter 1. Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels Richards Bay Durban South Africa Source: PORTS & SHIPS Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Key Findings: Transport Trends In KwaDukuza, vehicle registrations increased by 796 vehicles to 40,769 which is the highest increase in two years. New vehicle registrations in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe declined by 17 and 9 respectively. Passenger numbers in Durban have increased by 1% to 1,190,230, passenger numbers in O.R Tambo have decreased by 5% to 4,821,631 and passenger numbers in Cape Town have increased by 11.4% to 2 227,848 in quarter 4 of In Richards Bay cargo handled increased to , the total number of vessels increased to 458 and gross tonnage increased to in quarter 1 of In Durban the total cargo handled decreased to , total number of vessels dropped to 940 and gross tonnage of vessels decreased to in quarter 1. Total cargo in South Africa decreased slightly to , total number of vessels increased to 2832 and gross tonnage of vessels increased to in quarter 1. 23

24 Percentage of Respondents ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Tourism Trends This section discusses the results from the tourism quarterly survey conducted by Enterprise ilembe; and the number of visitors to the Sangweni Information Centre in Ballito this quarter. Tourism Survey The tourism confidence survey is conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and is run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to tourism places of accommodation on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). Tourism Business Confidence The tourism confidence survey is conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and is run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to tourism places of accommodation on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). Tourism Business Confidence Similarly to the business survey, business confidence for tourism in ilembe is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing tourism conditions. It is clear from the graph below that tourism confidence (blue line) has decreased this quarter to 5.4. Despite this quarterly decrease, confidence is still relatively high. Tourism Business Confidence Trend Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Quarters Satisfactory Unsatisfactory 24

25 Percentage of respondents ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Prevailing Business Conditions (Tourism) The graph below shows the trend for demand for tourism services over the previous year. 28% of respondents experienced high demand in quarter , down from 50% in quarter 4. 29% experienced medium demand; 43% experienced low demand which is concerning for quarter 1 which has the in season summer months Demand Trend Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Low demand Medium demand High demand Quarters The graph below describes occupancy as compared to the previous quarter and the previous year. The majority of tourism businesses (46% said that occupancy remained the same in quarter 1 compared to the previous year. It is concerning that only 23% of businesses feel that occupancy has increased when compared to quarter 1 last year. 61.5% of businesses said that occupancy decreased in quarter 1 in comparison to the previous quarter. Future Expectations (Tourism) 43% of respondents expect bookings to increase over the next quarter (Q2 2013), a 35% increase from the previous quarter. Only 14% of businesses expect bookings to decrease which is positive for the industry. 25

26 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Number of tourists visiting Sangweni Tourism Information Centre, 2012 The number of people who make any type of query at the Sangweni Tourism Information Office in Ballito is recorded monthly and gives an indication of the number of new tourists visiting Ballito. This represents estimated figures for the North Coast but gives a useful indication of trends based on a segment of tourists in the North Coast. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has increased to 178 visitors, while local visitors decreased slightly to 812 visitors in quarter 1. Source: Sangweni Tourism Information Centre Key Findings: Tourism Tourism confidence has decreased this quarter to 5.4 which is still relatively high. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has increased to 178 visitors, while local visitors decreased slightly to 812 visitors in quarter 1. 26

27 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Employment Indices for South Africa The following employment indices and indicators are drawn from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by StatsSA, and the Adcorp Employment Index which is released by Adcorp monthly. These are for South Africa and KZN as quarterly data is not available for ilembe as yet. The QLFS for quarter is only released after the publication of this quarterly report and therefore the stats for quarter have been included here. Quarterly Labour Force Survey The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is a household-based sample survey conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). It collects data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 years and above who live in South Africa. The labour force increased by persons between Q4:2012 and Q1:2013. This increase is reflected in an increase in the number of both unemployed persons ( ) and employed persons (44 000), which saw the unemployment rate increase by 0.3% from 24.9% to 25.2% in quarter Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 1, 2013 Between Q3:2012 and Q4:2012, the decline in total employment was mainly driven by the decrease in the number of employed persons in trade (66 000), construction (41 000), finance and other business services (23 000), and transport (3 000). The largest increase in employment was observed in Agriculture (54 000), followed by community and social services (44 000), and private households (29 000). The table below shows that between Q4:2012 and Q1:2013 employment declined in four of the nine provinces; Limpopo, North West, Western Cape and Northern cape. Employment increases were observed in Eastern Cape, KZN (27 000) and Free State. 27

28 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 1, 2013 Adcorp Employment Index Employment fell sharply in March 2013, declining at an annualized rate of 2.1%. The economy shed 33,202 jobs during the month, mostly in the permanent, full-time work sector. The informal sector created 6,610 jobs during the month, whereas employment in the formal sector fell by 39,812. Job losses were focused in the retail and wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors, which lost 9,000 and 8,000 jobs respectively. These job losses were largely offset by job creation in the government sector. Government employment remained strong, with 4,000 jobs created during the month. For the first time in 15 years, the economy shed high-skilled jobs (12,000 during the month). 28

29 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Key Findings: Employment According to the QLFS, the labour force increased by persons between Q4:2012 and Q1:2013. This increase is reflected in an increase in the number of both unemployed persons ( ) and employed persons (44 000), which saw the unemployment rate increase by 0.3% from 24.9% to 25.2% in quarter The Adcorp employment index shows that employment fell sharply in March 2013, declining at an annualized rate of 2.1%. The economy shed 33,202 jobs during the month, mostly in the permanent, full-time work sector. 29

30 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012) In 2011 the Ballito Chamber of Commerce Tourism and Industry implemented its first business retention and expansion programme. Following the success of the programme, and recognising that up to 80% of all new jobs are created by the growth of existing business, the Chamber with support from Ithala Bank and funding from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), decided to implement a programme in the Isithebe Industrial Estate. The programme was launched on 6 September The majority of firms interviewed (72%) are in wholesale retail or motor trade whilst about 15% are wholesale, retail and motor trade. Out of the 59 respondents 3 were in construction and building and one in transport. Almost 80% of firms are locally owned, with the remainder of the 10% being branches of either national or international companies.almost all businesses are locally owned. Almost 77% of the respondents are well established having being in Isithebe for over 10 years, with 12% being in existence for about 5 years. Only 2 businesses interviewed have been in Isithebe for less than 1 year. National customers (around South Africa) are the main source of sales for 53% of the businesses surveyed while another 20% focus predominantly on the KwaZulu Natal and an equal amount do business with local customers from in and around Mandeni. Only 8% focus their sales internationally. Employment Between them the businesses surveyed employ 4831 men and 3633 women, i.e., a total of Of these 85% are full time, 7% part time and 8% are casuals or contractors. In light of the recession 40% of the respondents said they had decreased the number of people employed over the last two years while almost the same amount 38% said there had been no change in numbers. The reasons cited include economic restraint conditions, or closure of specific company departments, and poor labour relations. A quarter of respondents (21%) have increased the number of people employed mostly due to business expansions, and increased production demands. More optimistically, 36% of businesses interviewed expect to employ more people over the next two years, while about 46% expect their numbers to remain the same due to projected business growth and expansion. Business Environment Relative cost of land and property was cited by 44% of businesses interviewed, as the main advantage of doing business in Isithebe, whilst 40% feel that reliability of electricity and water and access to customers are the main advantages. The most frequently (47%) mentioned disadvantage was high crime rate. Next on the list for an equal number of respondents (42%) of businesses was availability of skills locally and access to suppliers. The cost and reliability of transport and access to customers were also disadvantages for many businesses in 30

31 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Isithebe. With the onset of an oppressive economic climate, 45% of businesses said sales had decreased over the last two years. The majority of businesses however have optimistic outlooks for the future with 49% expect sales to increase over the next 2 years. Business Opportunities The vast majority (96%) cited availability as the reason for purchasing from outside of Mandeni. Most of these products are specific raw materials needed in manufacturing, but a vast number also cited the need for stationery. Other products that they would like purchase locally or have a bigger pool to source from include basic hardware and fresh produce. There was a strong opinion about on what new businesses might succeed in Isithebe. The most frequently mentioned was a stationery and general office equipment store, as well as a restaurant and take away store. Other suggestions were businesses who sell electrical components, and a major logistics/transport hub. Future Plans On the other hand 70% of business people say they have plans to expand or change their businesses. Some intend to acquire bigger premises or open new company branches; many are diversifying into new products or services. Most interviewees see new machinery and equipment (56%) and improved staff skills (43%) and new products (43%) as the key to improved performance in the year ahead. Improved labour relations (34%) would also help. Other ideas include trade information and improved management skills. Key Findings: Business Retention and Expansion Survey Labour laws and regulations are seen by 70% as a constraint to growth. Businesses supplying goods and services to factories in Isithebe are facing a declining market as firms close or relocate. The availability of artisans and skilled machinists is a constraint to growth. Access to suppliers, maintenance, repairs, service and spares is a disadvantage. Transport is increasingly costly; road transport is the only option since the rail service was withdrawn. 31

32 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 SECTION TWO: ECONOMIC INDICATORS-UPDATED ANNUALLY Most socio-economic data is not available on a quarterly basis at a District and Municipal level. This section comprises of the most recent annual economic intelligence and statistical analysis available for ilembe and its LMs. It is broken down into various sub-sections, which include a demographic profile; a socioeconomic profile; education, employment and skills; and economic activity. Where Census data is available, it has been updated. Where census data is not yet available, Quantec Regional Data for 2011 has been used. Which source of data has been used is indicated at the bottom of each graph. Demographic Profile Population and Households Recent Census results show that the population in ilembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum. The trend of migration from rural local municipalities of Maphumulo and Ndwedwe to coastal and more urban LMs of Mandeni and especially KwaDukuza is evident. The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum. Households in KwaDukuza have grown at a fairly high rate of 4.8% per annum, whereas households in Maphumulo have declined by 1%. Average household size is 3.8 and the percentage of female headed households is 45.8% which is above the national average of 41%, but average for KZN. Table Population and Households (2011) Population Households Number Population Growth (% p.a.) Number Household Growth (% p.a.) Average Household Size Female Headed Households % ilembe 606, , % Maphumulo 96, , % Mandeni 138, , % KwaDukuza 231, , % Ndwedwe 140, , % Source: StatsSA, Census 2011 Population Groups The graph below displays the split of the population of the district and local municipalities by population group. For the district and all local municipalities besides KwaDukuza, Africans comprise over 90% of the total population, with KwaDukuza having the largest Asian population (predominately Indian) of 18.3%. KwaDukuza 32

33 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 also contributes the largest portion of Whites (5.3%) of which a large number reside in the urban area of Ballito. Maphumulo comprises the largest African population (99.9%). In terms of average yearly growth rates, the Black and Asian populations declined slightly over the previous 5 years, whereas the coloured and white populations experienced a positive growth rate. Graph Racial Profile for 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) Gender Profile The graph below displays the gender distribution of the district and local populations. There are 91 males in ilembe for every 100 females. KwaDukuza is the most even at almost 50% each, whereas Maphumulo is the most uneven with only 81 males for every 100 females. Graph Gender Profile 2011 Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) 33

34 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Age Profile The graph below provides an indication of the age distribution within the district. 34% of the district s population is under the age of 15, 61% is made up of the working age population (15-64), and only 5% are 65 and over. The youngest population is found in Maphumulo (41%) and KwaDukuza has the highest working age population (67%). Graph Age Distribution for 2011 Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) The dependency ratio describes the number of dependents per 100 people between the age of 15 and 64. Dependents are people who cannot work due to their young (under the age of 15), or old (over the age of 65) age. A high dependency ratio is a large burden to carry for carers who are in many cases unemployed. The highest dependency ratio of almost 90 people per 100 working age people is in Maphumulo and the lowest is in 50 in KwaDukuza. The average for ilembe is 63. Graph Dependency Ratio Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) 34

35 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Education Profile The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling. The number of people with higher education has decreased from 3.7% to 3.1% in 2011 which is alarming and shows possible out migration of highly skilled workers. The number of people with matric has increased to 26.6% in 2011 which is a per cent less than the average for South Africa. It is promising to see that 91.3% of all children between the ages of 6 and 13 are enrolled in primary education. Table Education Profile, 2011 Education Profile No Schooling Higher Education Matric Primary Educational Enrolment aged ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) HIV/AIDS Deaths The final demographic indicator is that of HIV positive individuals and AIDS Deaths recorded. The graph below displays these trends. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). This is 1% higher than the average for the province. The number of HIV infections increased by 0.7% in Graph HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) 35

36 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Key Findings: Demographic Profile Recent Census results show that the population in ilembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum, out-migration to coastal LMs persists; The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum; 34% of the population is under the age of 15 years, 62% of the ilembe population falls within the working age bracket (15 64 years), and only 5% is over the age of 65 years. The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). 36

37 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Socio-Economic Indicators Five socio-economic indicators are assessed before moving onto an analysis of growth indicators. The indicators analysed below are used as a measure of growth of social infrastructure such refuse removal, electricity, access to water, type of housing and type of toilets. Household Services Household services in ilembe are, in general, well below the national average. The number of houses with a flush toilet connected to sewerage on their property has increased by only 1% to 22.5% in 2011 (average for KZN is 40%). The percentage of houses with weakly refuse removal is 34%, but is as low as 2% in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe and as high as 60% in KwaDukuza. 24% of houses have piped water inside the dwelling which is half the national average. 71.4% of all houses have electricity. It is clear that KwaDukuza and Mandeni both have below average service delivery, while Maphumulo and Ndwedwe have near to no services at all, electricity being the only exception. This is indicative of municipalities with a severe service infrastructure backlog and a scattered settlement pattern that often comes with traditional land. Table Household Services, 2011 HOUSEHOLDS SERVICES Flush Toilet connected to sewerage % Weekly Refuse Removal % Piped Water Inside Dwelling % Electricity for Lighting % ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe SOUTH AFRICA KWAZULU-NATAL Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) Type of Dwelling 64% of the households in ilembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38% since This is highest in KwaDukuza (64%) and lowest in Maphumulo (22.9%). 57% of these dwellings are owned or being paid off. 37

38 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Table Percentage of formal dwellings and ownership, Census 2011 Formal Dwellings % % Housing owned/paying off % change % change ilembe % % Maphumulo % % Mandeni % % KwaDukuza % % Ndwedwe % % Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) Key Findings: Socio-Economic Indicators Household services in ilembe are, in general, well below the national average with Maphumulo having almost no services other than electricity; 64% of the households in ilembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38% since

39 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Employment Indicators The graph below provides unemployment rates and youth unemployment rates for the district and LMs. The district s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). While unemployment is above the national average, it is average for KZN. Youth unemployment is substantially lower than both the national and KZN average (with the exception of Maphumulo and Ndwedwe). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively. Graph Employment Status in 2011 Source: StatsSA Census, 2011 (2012) The table below provides a comparison with Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in ilembe by 36% and 33% respectively since Table Unemployment 2001 vs 2011 Unemployment Rate Youth (15-34) Unemployment Rate % change % change ilembe % % Maphumulo % % Mandeni % % KwaDukuza % % Ndwedwe % % Source: StatsSA Census, 2011 (2012) The graph below shows the percentage contribution of employment by industry for ilembe and each of the LMs. The majority of employment in ilembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%). The majority of employment in Ndwedwe is in agriculture, 39

40 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 the majority of employment in Mandeni is in manufacturing, employment in Maphumulo is being sustained by government employment, and employment in KwaDukuza is most diversified across all sectors. Graph Employment contribution by industry and local municipality, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below shows the 10 year employment trend for ilembe. Agriculture has gone from the sector that employs the most people, to the sector that employs the 6 th most people. Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by and jobs respectively. The majority of job gains over the previous 5 years were in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors and the government and community services sectors. 40

41 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Graph Employment by Sector for ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below displays the breakdown of formal employment into the three skills categories. Between 14% and 16% of the formally employed in all municipalities are highly skilled, with the exception of Maphumulo which has 24% of its employment as highly skilled. This increase is mainly in government services, but also transport and communications. The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in ilembe has increased by 4% over the previous year, however, it is still lower than the average for KZN of 18%. Just over 39% of the formally employed district population are skilled persons, and 45.7% are semi and unskilled. 41

42 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Graph Formal Employment by Skill Level in 2011 Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The Informal Economy South Africa s informal sector is the unofficial part of the economy whereby many people are forced to eke out a meagre economic existence through lack of formal job opportunities. This sector of the economy, which evades income taxes and circumvents labour laws, now represents over 30% of SA S potential workforce and is the fastest growing sector. The graph below displays the distribution of formal and informally employed persons. In ilembe, about 23% of the working age population are informally employed, while approximately 77% are formally employed. Within the district, all the local municipalities display a similar trend, however with only 16% informal employment displayed in Maphumulo. 42

43 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Graph Formal and Informal Employment in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The informal economy in ilembe is heterogenic, ranging from average street traders and shebeen owners to child carers and domestic workers. It is often characterised by its flexibility, creativity, resilience to absorb shocks, and its ability to adapt to changing external environments. The largest informal economy exists in KwaDukuza. The following table describes the type of informal activities that occur in KwaDukuza and their estimated size. Table Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza Types of informal Activities Estimated Number Taxi and Minibus operators 200 Tourism (B&B, Tour guides) 10 Informal Builders 500 Domestic Workers Agriculture (urban subsistence) 60 Light industries (tailors, Dressmakers and hatters, Embroiderers and related workers, plumbers, welders) 2000 Informal technicians (shoe, watch, car, furniture, etc. repairers ) 2000 Street traders Numbers Barbers and Hairdressers 1000 Fruit sellers 2000 Craft and bead sellers 100 Cardboard collectors 40 Live chicken sellers 50 43

44 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Millie cookers 50 Newspaper vendors 5 Second hand clothes dealers 20 Tavern and shebeen operators 2000 Spaza shop owners 2000 Street food vendors 1000 Traditional Medicine practitioners and Muthi traders 150 Mr. Phone dealers 50 Source: KwaDukuza Business Development Unit, Urban-Econ Interviews Key Findings: Employment Indicators The district s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively.; Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in ilembe by 36% and 33% respectively since 2001; The majority of employment in ilembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%); Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by and jobs respectively; The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in ilembe has increased by 4% over the previous year. 44

45 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Production, Expenditure and Investment This section covers a variety of economic indicators and provides an understanding of the economic status of ilembe, as well as its leading and lagging industries. Gross Geographic Product In 2011 ilembe s GVA (an indicator of gross geographic produce) was R billion. This accounts for 3.8% of KZN s GGP making ilembe the 7 th highest contributor to KZN s GDP out of 11 districts and one metro. ilembe s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years. The majority of growth is being experienced in the tertiary sector which grew by almost 5% in The secondary sector grew by 0.6%, while the primary sector contracted by 0.8%. Graph GVA growth trend by 3 sectors, ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the contribution of each industry to total GGP in For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, contributing 18.4% to total GGP. This sector accounts for 19% of the Mandeni economy, 30% of the KwaDukuza economy, and 18% of the Ndwedwe economy, with manufacturing in Maphumulo only contributing 9%. The finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector has grown by 5.5% over the previous 5 years, despite the recession. Manufacturing is the next highest contributor, contributing 18.2% to total GGP in the district. Manufacturing accounts for 23% of Mandeni s economy, 30% of KwaDukuza s economy, 23% of Ndwedwe s economy and 45

46 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter % of Maphumulo s economy. Manufacturing grew over the previous year by 0.6%, but has declined over the previous 5 years by 0.4% (due to the recession in 2008). Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation contributed the third highest to GDP with 16%, general government contributed 14%, transport, storage and communication contributed 12%, and community services contributed 7%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing now only contribute 4.5% to ilembe s GDP, although it is the most significant sector in Maphumulo. Graph Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Income and Expenditure Average annual income per household for ilembe in 2011 was R (R7 881 per month) which is lower than the previous year. Total household income for 2011 in ilembe was estimated at R billion, of which 93% was used as household expenditure. Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district 46

47 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 are surviving on government grants and remittance. Mandeni and KwaDukuza accounted for 77% of total remuneration in the district which again shows the spatial economic dynamics of the district. The graph below shows the trend in income for ilembe over the previous 10 years. It is evident that current income has increased by 2 billion over the previous 10 years, however, the majority of this increase, especially over the previous 5 years, has been due to increases in unearned income. Unearned income increased by 4.3% over the previous 5 years, and 9.6% from 2010 to 2011, while remuneration only increased by 1.6% and 1.5% in these same years. Graph Income, remuneration and unearned income trends for ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the contribution of expenditure across the four categories of expenditure for each municipality. Durable goods comprised about 7.6% - 9.2% of total expenditure within all of the municipalities, with semi-durable goods comprising between 8% % of total expenditure. The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure. Non-durable goods expenditure was the highest in Ndwedwe (51% of expenditure), while services contributed 40% to expenditure in Mandeni, 47% in KwaDukuza, and almost 36% in Maphumulo. The proportion of expenditure on durable and semi-durable goods has decreased substantially over the previous year which is expected considering that income has reduced over this same period. Graph Distribution of Expenditure in

48 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below provides a detailed breakdown of the sub-categories within each main category as a percentage of total expenditure. Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe. Transport and communication contributed 8.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, while rental contributed 10.5% in the district and Clothing and footwear contributed 5.4% to total expenditure in the district. 48

49 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Graph Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Domestic Fixed Capital Investment A final indicator of economic activity that is assessed is domestic fixed capital investment by type and sector. R1 702 billion was invested into capital in ilembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza. The graph below shows that investment is mainly being directed into machinery and other equipment which is normal for an economy with a large agricultural and/or manufacturing sector. Investment into this category is decreasing, however, along with the agricultural and manufacturing industries and is being replaced by investment into building and construction works as well as transport equipment. 49

50 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Graph Domestic Fixed Investment, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the breakdown of capital investment into the various sectors within ilembe. It is clear that domestic fixed investment in ilembe has been predominately channelled into the manufacturing (29%), transport, storage and communications (16.5%), as well as finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors (15.6%). The most impressive sector over all is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms. However, within the local municipalities the situation varies according to the comparative advantages of that municipality. 24% of investment within Mandeni was in the finance sector, 41% into manufacturing, while investment into transport and storage contributed just over 12%. Within KwaDukuza 10% of investment was into agriculture, 30.5% into manufacturing, 15% into transport and storage and 15% into finance. Investment in Ndwedwe was more evenly distributed between the sectors, with agriculture (19%), manufacturing (15%), electricity, gas and water (18%), transport and storage (14%) and general government (14%) all contributing substantially. In Maphumulo, investment was dominated by the transport, storage and communication sector (43.6%) and the general government sector (almost 25%). 50

51 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Graph Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Key Findings: Production, Expenditure and Investment ilembe s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years; For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, contributing 18.4% to total GGP; Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district are surviving on government grants and remittance; The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure; Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe; R1 702 billion was invested into capital in ilembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza; and The most impressive sector with regard to domestic fixed investment is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms. 51

52 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS The tables below display both the nominal and percentage contribution values for each of the indicators presented in the report. A1.1 Population and Households Population Households Number Population Growth (% p.a.) Number Household Growth (% p.a.) Average Household Size Female Headed Households % ilembe 606, , % Maphumulo 96, , % Mandeni 138, , % KwaDukuza 231, , % Ndwedwe 140, , % A1.2 Racial Profile Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Black 90.7% 93.6% 76.2% 98.2% 99.9% Coloured 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Asian 6.7% 4.4% 17.6% 1.0% 0.0% White 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0% A1.3 HIV and AIDS Number Population HIV Positive AIDS Deaths Percentage Contribution HIV Positive AIDS Deaths ilembe ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 16.4% 18.9% 15.6% 16.8% 14.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% A1.4 Gender Profile ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Number of males per 100 females

53 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 A1.5 Age Profile < ilembe 36.6% 34% 58.5% 61% 4.9% 5% Maphumulo 44.1% 41% 49.6% 53% 6.3% 7% Mandeni 35.2% 33% 61.2% 63% 3.6% 4% KwaDukuza 29.9% 29% 65.7% 67% 4.3% 4% Ndwedwe 39.4% 37% 55.0% 57% 5.6% 6% A1.6 Household Services Flush Toilet connected to sewerage % Weekly Refuse Removal % Piped Water Inside Dwelling % Electricity for Lighting % ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe SOUTH AFRICA KWAZULU-NATAL A1.7 Household Dynamics Households Average Household Size HOUSEHOLDS DYNAMICS Female Headed Households % Formal Dwellings % % Housing owned/paying off ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe A1.8 Education Level No Schooling Higher Education EDUCATION (aged 20 +) Matric Primary Educational Enrolment (aged 6-13) ilembe Maphumulo

54 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe A1.9 Employment and Unemployment Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Population - Working age (16-65 years old) Employed - Formal and informal Unemployed Not economically active A1.10 Employment by type and skill level Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Employed - Formal and informal Employed - Formal Employed - Formal - Highly skilled Employed - Formal - Skilled Employed - Formal - Semiand unskilled Employed Informal KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni ilembe Percentage Contribution Formally Employed 77% 76% 76% 78% 84% Informally Employed 23% 24% 24% 22% 16% KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni ilembe Percentage Contribution Highly Skilled 15% 15% 14% 16% 24% Skilled 39% 45% 37% 34% 39% Semi and Unskilled 46% 40% 49% 50% 36% A1.11 Employment by Industry Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing

55 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.2% 3.8% 10.8% 21.1% 5.1% Mining and quarrying 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Manufacturing 16.5% 26.9% 15.0% 9.3% 4.0% Electricity, gas and water 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Construction 6.3% 2.2% 7.9% 10.2% 2.9% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 21.5% 25.7% 22.8% 18.4% 5.2% Transport, storage and communication 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 9.1% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 13.3% 22.8% 11.3% 6.0% 7.1% Community, social and personal services 16.7% 9.1% 19.6% 14.2% 31.0% General government 11.7% 5.6% 9.5% 17.2% 35.4% A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services

56 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.5% 9.9% 4.2% 10.5% 21.0% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% Manufacturing 18.2% 22.9% 30.4% 23.3% 15.1% Electricity, gas and water 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 3.7% Construction 4.2% 3.9% 1.4% 4.6% 7.4% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 15.9% 16.8% 18.6% 18.3% 14.9% Transport, storage and communication 12.3% 6.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 18.4% 19.3% 29.6% 17.8% 9.1% Community, social and personal services 7.1% 6.2% 3.0% 6.8% 5.6% General government 14.3% 10.9% 4.4% 10.2% 15.5% A1.13 Expenditure by Category KwaDukuza Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd Mandeni Ndwedwe ilembe quarter) Durable Goods Semi-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Services Total KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Ndwedwe ilembe Contribution Durable Goods 7.9% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% Semi-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods 9.2% 9.9% 8.0% 8.8% 12.4% 41.8% 42.6% 37.6% 51.0% 43.3% Services 41.2% 39.9% 46.8% 31.5% 35.2% 56

57 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Durable Goods Semi- Durable Non- Durable Services ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Furniture, household appliances, etc Personal transport equipment Recreational and entertainment goods Other durable goods Clothing and footwear Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and accessories Recreational and entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods Food, beverages and tobacco Household fuel and power Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical products Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods Rent Household services, including domestic servants Medical services Transport and communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services Miscellaneous services Percentage Contribution Durable Goods Semi- Furniture, household appliances, etc Personal transport equipment Recreational and entertainment goods Other durable goods Clothing and footwear ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 1.54% 1.57% 1.34% 1.74% 2.05% 4.50% 4.19% 4.10% 5.72% 5.48% 1.11% 1.09% 1.38% 0.56% 0.88% 0.74% 0.74% 0.76% 0.68% 0.75% 5.42% 6.17% 4.34% 5.03% 8.11% 57

58 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Durable Non- Durable Services Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and accessories Recreational and entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods Food, beverages and tobacco Household fuel and power Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical products Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods Rent Household services, including domestic servants Medical services Transport and communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services Miscellaneous services ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 1.40% 1.47% 1.16% 1.55% 1.97% 1.39% 1.36% 1.27% 1.66% 1.61% 0.64% 0.58% 0.78% 0.44% 0.49% 0.34% 0.36% 0.43% 0.11% 0.22% 26.57% 27.03% 24.33% 32.33% 26.28% 4.57% 5.42% 3.03% 6.24% 5.99% 4.12% 4.50% 3.83% 3.93% 4.40% 1.45% 1.11% 1.83% 1.29% 1.14% 4.09% 3.67% 3.45% 6.43% 4.78% 0.95% 0.83% 1.17% 0.78% 0.67% 10.55% 9.59% 13.58% 7.27% 5.55% 2.55% 2.58% 2.63% 2.45% 2.29% 6.47% 6.51% 7.24% 4.54% 5.85% 8.59% 8.40% 9.94% 5.72% 7.63% 4.65% 4.91% 4.55% 3.85% 5.33% 8.35% 7.93% 8.87% 7.66% 8.54% A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Total Buildings and construction works Machinery and other equipment Transport equipment Transfer costs Percentage Contribution Buildings and construction works Machinery and other equipment ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 38.8% 31.4% 37.6% 49.7% 51.3% 48.3% 55.4% 50.3% 39.0% 29.6% Transport equipment 11.5% 10.3% 11.2% 10.6% 18.7% Transfer costs 1.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 58

59 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.4% 4.0% 10.4% 19.4% 4.4% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% Manufacturing 29.0% 40.9% 30.5% 14.8% 6.2% Electricity, gas and water 6.0% 1.7% 4.9% 17.9% 4.3% Construction 1.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.6% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 6.6% 1.6% Transport, storage and communication 16.5% 12.6% 14.7% 14.2% 43.6% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 15.6% 24.1% 15.0% 7.1% 6.2% Community, social and personal services 2.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 8.2% General government 10.0% 4.0% 9.8% 13.8% 24.4% A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza Approvals Submissions Completions Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value January February March

60 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Approvals Submissions Completions Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value April May June July August Sep October ,899, ,912 46,169, ,238 96,858,200 Nov ,013, , ,465, , ,773,589 Dec ,629, , ,013, , ,034,000 January , 534, , 892, , 829, 600 February , 529, , 794, , 273, 500 March , 342, , 711, , 131, 200 A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza Single Phase Three Phase Maximum Demand Total Electricity Connections Total Water Connections January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements King Shaka International OR Tambo International Cape Town International Jan Feb

61 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 1st Quarter 2013 Mar Apr May Jun ,959 1,457, ,793 Jul ,758 1,623, ,114 Aug ,966 1,599, ,631 Sep ,988 1,623, ,027 Oct ,379 1,672, ,527 Nov ,186 1,546, ,498 Dec ,665 1,603, ,823 A1.20 Port Movements Richards Bay Durban Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, millions) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels (millions) Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, millions) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels (millions) Jan Feb March April May June July August September October November December January February March ,

62 REPORT COMPILED FOR: Enterprise ilembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: Fax: REPORT COMPILED BY: Urban-Econ Development Economists 37 Hunt Road, Glenwood Durban, 4001 Tel: Fax: