Risk profile of IDC s book

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1 Integrated Report 213 Risk profile Risk profile of IDC s book Credit risk Impairments Impairments (IDC Company) 5 2 IDC s level of impairments has been increasing gradually in recent years, with the ratio of impairments as a percentage of the portfolio at cost rising from 15% in March 29 to 18% in March 213. This reflects the Corporation s increased risk appetite towards distressed clients, as well as other ailing industries, such as the textiles industry. It also reflects IDC s increased focus on early stage projects and start-up companies. The impairment and write-offs charge to the Income Statement of R2 268 million for the year ended 31 March 213 was 38% higher compared to financial year 212. The main reasons for impairments included the deterioration in trading conditions together with low market penetration. This pointed to the slow economic recovery following the economic downturn. Depressed commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates also continued to impact IDC s business partners. Business units contributing significantly towards the increase in impairments included: Textiles, Media, ICT and Mining ,4 6,3 5,2 4,8 5, Book at cost Impairments raised Impairments as % of market value Impairments as % of cost 93

2 Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Limited Write-offs The IDC writes off investments when the exposure is considered unrecoverable and only after all viable restructuring options have been exhausted. During the financial year ended 31 March 213 a total amount of R47 million was written off. This compares to R157 million for the 212 financial year and R722 million for the 211 financial year. The Metals (56%), Chemicals (12%) and Tourism (4.1%) SBUs accounted for the majority of the write-offs. The major reasons for write-offs related to the distressed economic environment, non-existence of markets and operational inefficiencies, including delays in commissioning of plant, and raw-material supplyrelated challenges. The following analysis is an indication of the ongoing challenges which IDC is addressing through the various restructuring, business rescue and business support attempts conducted by the Workout & Restructuring unit. A high percentage of the business partners written off have a very low probability of recovery, whilst in some instances IDC does indeed recoup amounts already written off. Write-offs 8 Capital at risk Capital at risk is defined as total capital outstanding (excluding undrawn commitments) for facilities with capital repayments in arrears of more than 6 days. As at 31 March 213, capital at risk amounted to R6 billion (28% of total capital outstanding) an increase of around R1.4 billion from R4.6 billion (2 of capital outstanding) at 31 March 212. The graph below illustrates the growth in capital at risk over the past five financial years: As at 31 March 213, R747 million of the total capital at risk was attributable to the Metals, Transport and Machinery Products SBU (Metals), representing an increase of R179 million from 212. During the economic recession, Metals was adversely affected by the collapse of the steel industry and subsequently the influx of imports of cheap steel products from countries such as China, India and Turkey. Metals business partners are also indirectly affected by the ever-volatile mining industry and the automotive industry that has been struggling to recover fully following the recession. The second largest contributor to total capital at risk as at the end of the 213 financial year, was the Mining and Minerals Beneficiation SBU (Mining), at R746 million (an increase of R346 million from 212), followed by Tourism, Capital at risk Percentage Capital at risk Percentage of contract capital 94

3 Integrated Report 213 RISK PROFILE R68 million. Volatility within the mining industry has influenced the amount of capital at risk, while the tourism industry continues to be exposed to fluctuations in the economic cycle. The IDC s Post-Investment Monitoring Department (PIMD) is responsible for the proactive monitoring of the IDC s investments. PIMD ascertains the quality of the IDC s loan book, identifies early warning signs of deterioration and ensures timeous action is taken to protect the IDC s interests and to prevent or limit financial losses. Regular meetings of the IDC s Investment Monitoring Committee (IMC) also assist with the monitoring of the performance of the loan portfolio. Together with PIMD, IMC decides on an appropriate course of action to be taken with regard to non-performing clients, like those classified under capital at risk. The actions that are taken include: raising an impairment, serving the customer with a letter of demand and/or legal action. Unlisted equity investments This section focuses on the performance of IDC s private equity investments as at 31 March 213. Private equity investments include ordinary shares, preference shares, interest-free shareholders loans and quasi-equity loans. While the number of private equity investments increased by 11% from March 212 to March 213, the fair value increased by only 3% over the same period mainly due to the continued Eurozone economic crises, suppressed commodity prices and a number of equity redemptions. Equity investments: performance The private equity book is highly concentrated towards commodities, with three of the larger clients accounting for 5% of the fair value. The performance of the private equity book is assessed based on a weighting of corporate governance and financial performance. As at 31 March 213, 12% were rated as excellent performers, 36% rated as good, 36% fair and 9% as bad performers. The majority of bad and fair performers are investments within the manufacturing, services, farming and mining sectors. Clients in the start-up phase have not been rated as they are still implementing their business plans and have been in operation for less than two years. Good and excellent performers require minimal intervention from the IDC. Fair performers require some attention, while bad performers require significant IDC involvement. Some of the mechanisms utilised by the IDC in monitoring its private equity book in order to ensure good performance are as follows: (a) Attendance of shareholder s meetings; (b) Participation in project implementation steering committees; (c) Appointment of Board members; (d) Conduct of business reviews based on risk categorisation; and (e) Analysis of quarterly and annual financial information to monitor compliance with business plan and financial models (budgets thus approved). Clients at Workout and Restructuring (W&R) IDC proactively identifies high risk business partners who are financially distressed or who are unable to meet their financial commitments. To prevent failure, we introduce suitable commercial solutions, including restructurings and turnaround strategies. Clients that still have sound business plans or which have reasonable prospects of being viable are assisted in their turnaround efforts, through financial restructuring of their balance sheets, or through the provision of non-financial support, including the appointment of external experts to facilitate the turnaround. W&R also optimises financial recovery of IDC exposures where the financial failure or liquidation of the BP proves unavoidable. 12% 36% 36% 9% 7% Excellent performance Good performance Fair performance Bad performance Start-up 95

4 Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Limited Clients at W&R Concentration risk Sectoral Although IDC has recently made substantial investments in the green economy space, sector concentration remains one of the key strategic priorities of the Corporation. Exposure to the mining industry is at 3% and the top 1 business partners represent 62% of the IDC s portfolio at market value Number A positive trend in the journey towards portfolio diversification is the increasing share of the manufacturing sectors portion of the book. It currently amounts for 4 of the total portfolio compared to 38% five years ago. The main driver of portfolio diversification is the annual Board-approved capital allocation process, allocating capital amongst different SBUs over a five-year period. Additional safeguards against such concentration include the sector and counterparty limits guidelines and the monitoring of IDC s portfolio by the Corporate Strategy and Portfolio Management Department Value of clients at W&R Number of clients at W&R 1 Sectoral concentration As at the end of March 213, our W&R portfolio increased by 33% to R8.7 billion (212: R6.5 billion) in value. This figure represents a total of 283 clients in the W&R portfolio a reduction from 33 clients in March 212. A total of 6 clients with a combined value of R3.2 billion were transferred into the W&R portfolio during the year. Sectors with the highest increases in 212/13 FY were Media and Motion Pictures (46%), Metal, Transport and Machinery Products (23%) and Tourism (12%) by value of transactions. However, in terms of number, the largest transfers to the W&R portfolio came from Metals, Transport and Machinery Products SBUs. These have also seen the largest number of companies funded from the distress funds. Recently IDC has supported eight clients through Business Rescue, providing relief and an opportunity to turn around within a protected environment. The biggest challenge with the Business Rescue process is the unavailability of post-commencement funding (PCF), as the environment does not incentivise the provider of funding and the PCF is only secured to the extent of unencumbered assets. Other challenges include the lack of suitably qualified and industry experienced Business Rescue Practitioners as well as the reluctance by secured creditors to participate in the rescue process. 3% 18% 22% 2% 1% 6% 4 Manufacturing Agriculture and food Mining Chemicals and petroleum Metals and machinery Other manufacturing Trade, catering and accommodation Transport, communication and utilities Finance and insurance Other services 96

5 Integrated Report 213 RISK PROFILE Commodity Although commodity (resource-based) concentration of the IDC book is still evident, some progress has been made towards diversification as indicated by the growth of non-resource-based sectors share over recent years. The resource based portion of the portfolio keeps growing in absolute terms, but in relative terms it continues to decline (from 82% in 27 to 7% in 213), due to the rapid growth in non-resource-based investments (see accompanying graph). It still constitutes the largest portion of the book at two-thirds. The continued diversification of the portfolio is driven by the Green industries, ICT, Metals and SHIP business units. Commodity concentration 15 The book at market value is dominated by equity (both listed and unlisted), representing 72% of the portfolio, with the remainder attributable to loans (27%) with a small portion of guarantees. The nature of the IDC s mandate as a DFI often necessitates the financing of start-ups or market segments that are not funded by commercial financial institutions. Such funding represents equity instead of loan funding. Businesses that are in the early stage of their business lifecycle (e.g. conceptual or pre-feasibility) might be unable to provide sufficient security to obtain loan funding. In such instances, for example, IDC will acquire an equity stake. Large projects are also often funded through a combination of equity and loan funding, with the equity portion often exceeding the loans portion. Financial product concentration % 16% 1% 47% Unlisted equity and quasi-equity Loans Guarantees Listed equity Non-resource based Resource-based Resource-based, historically mature Financial product As at financial year-end (31 March 213), the total market value of the IDC portfolio (including commitments) had increased by 3% to R144 billion from the prior year level of R14 billion, mainly due to a number of large transactions approved in the Green industries, Mining and Metals SBUs. Regional Regional diversification of the IDC book is progressing well. It was especially evident over the past two years, with major growth in the IDC s involvement in South Africa s less developed provinces (except Gauteng and Western Cape) in terms of both value and number of investments, though there is still room for further improvement. The regional diversification over recent years was primarily due to some large investments in the green and mining sectors in rural areas. Diversification has also been assisted through the efforts of our regional offices. 97

6 Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Limited Regional concentration Eastern Cape Free State 5% <1% Gauteng 16% KwaZulu-Natal 11% Limpopo 5% Mpumalanga 15% North West Northern Cape 26% 87% 1% 3% South Africa SADC (excl. SA) Africa (outside SADC) Western Cape Investment in the rest of the continent is primarily driven by the Corporation s Rest of Africa Engagement Strategy and managed through our investment criteria and regional investment limits, as well as country boundaries. Sources of income Financial return risk Sources of income IDC s income is dominated by dividends (41%) from both listed and unlisted shares, thus creating dependency on the equity part of the portfolio. A major portion of IDC s balance sheet is made up of large, mature, listed investments, implying certain dependency on market sentiments and the cyclical nature of such sources of income. To address income risk, strategies have been put in place to ensure a more balanced investment return and risk profile, ensuring sufficient growth to replace existing cash generators as well as structuring of existing investments to increase direct equity returns. Pricing The average pricing of IDC loans is fairly distributed around the prime rate (at prime minus.5), strongly reflecting the developmental role of the IDC as a financier of higher-risk ventures. 16% 33% 3% 38% 1% Preference shares income Interest Dividends unlisted shares Dividends listed shares Other 98

7 Integrated Report 213 RISK PROFILE Average pricing of IDC loans Loan tenure 13% 19% 11% % > Prime (P) + 2 P+1 to P+2 P to P+1 P-1 to P P-1.7 to P-1 <P % 17% 28% 41% 3% <=1 year >1 & <=3 years >3 & <=5 years >5 & <=1 years >1 years The IDC s pricing methodology is based on a cost-plus calculation, recognising development impact and financial return for risks taken. In addition to accommodating industry dynamics, income generated by the loan portfolio should cover at least the cost of borrowings, impairments and a substantial portion of operating costs. Loan tenure The bulk of IDC loans (41%) is assigned a tenure between five and ten years, followed by an interval of between three and five years (28%). Only 3% of the loans are repayable in more than 1 years. The average loan tenure across all business units is six years. It is important to monitor loan tenure to avoid a borrowing/lending terms mismatch. The funding tenure is determined on the basis of the period required for the customer s business to reach maturity. A customer in the Green Industries sector will, for example, be assigned a longer loan tenure as these are long-term projects. A business partner in the agro industry sector will also be granted an extended loan tenure, depending on the time it would take for a specific type of crop to mature. Existing mature businesses will receive a shorter tenure of around three years, as such businesses are expected to yield the required return from the IDC s investment much sooner. Extensions of loan tenure via either the extension of the final draw-down date or deferment of capital repayments also impact on the overall tenure of the IDC s loan portfolio. IDC initiatives A key focus area of the Corporation s Leadership in Industrial Development Strategy, adopted in 212, is to put plans in place to ensure the balance sheet remains robust and can deliver the levels of funding required to make a meaningful impact in the industries the IDC is targeting over the next five years. Initiatives adopted to ensure long-term financial sustainability within an acceptable risk profile include: Stratify investments to take cognisance of different risk profiles and ensure that the returns of these investments are in line with the risks taken; Structure investments to increase direct equity returns; Reduce impairments and keep within risk appetite levels; Ensure that interest and fees generated from IDC s loan portfolio are appropriate and the level of crosssubsidisation is reduced; Increase its sourcing of lower cost funding; and Improve management of the portfolio. 99

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