ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

Transcription

1 ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND INTELLIGENCE REPORT FOURTH QUARTER 2012 OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2012 Enterprise ilembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: Fax:

2 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 FOREWORD This intelligence report comprises of an assessment of key economic indicators for the ilembe District for the fourth quarter of 2012, i.e. October to December This is the 8th edition of the quarterly reports, which are unique to ilembe as we are the only district municipality to publish such a report. The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist Enterprise ilembe in driving its mandate, which is to drive economic development and promote trade and investment in the District of ilembe. In these difficult economic times, it is good to focus on the positive coming out of ilembe. Some of the more positive findings of quarter four s report include: The introduction of an Urban Improvement Precinct in Ballito, modelled on the Umhlanga UIP. More information is given under the news section of this report; Enterprise ilembe s open farms are consistently yielding vegetables and farmers are supplying more and more established vegetable retailers; The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 4 of 2012 is 7.2. The index has increased quite substantially by 20 points from quarter when it was 5.2. This is the highest since the commencement of this survey; Building completions for KwaDukuza were at their highest point in two years in quarter 4 which is promising. Approvals also remained high, while submissions decreased which is largely due to the end of the year approaching. Building plans approved and completed in quarter three and four show increased activity and development in KwaDukuza; Tourism confidence has increased this quarter to 6.7, which, similar to other business confidence, is the highest since the survey commenced over a year ago. The first harvest of the ilembe Vineyard projects in Ndwedwe, Maphumulo and Mandeni is expected in February The grapes will be processed into wine at the newly developed winery at Collisheen Estate. Look out for ilembe s first Villard Blanc wine! 2

3 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Table of Contents Foreword... 2 Overview of the ilembe District Economy... 7 Latest News and Developments within ilembe... 8 Enterprise ilembe Update (Q4 2012) Section One: ilembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Quarterly Data) Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 4, Business Confidence Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza Transport Trends Tourism Trends Employment Indices for South Africa Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012) Section Two: ilembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Base Data) Demographic Profile Socio-Economic Indicators Employment Indicators The Informal Economy Production, Expenditure and Investment ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS A1.1 Population and Households A1.2 Racial Profile A1.3 HIV and AIDS A1.4 Gender Profile A1.5 Age Profile A1.6 Household Services A1.7 Household Dynamics A1.8 Education Level

4 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 A1.9 Employment and Unemployment A1.10 Employment by type and skill level A1.11 Employment by Industry A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry A1.13 Expenditure by Category A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements A1.20 Port Movements

5 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Summary of Key Indicators The table below contains a summary of the key indicators for ilembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2011, and the district indicators for 2010 for comparative purposes. In the few cases census data was available, it has been used. Table Summary of Key Economic Indicators Key Indicator ilembe KwaZulu-Natal Population ,809 10,267,300 Households 134, ,692 2,539,429 Race (%) African 90.48% 90.71% 85.64% Coloured 0.46% 0.47% 1.41% Asian 6.91% 6.67% 8.34% White 2.15% 2.15% 4.61% Gender (%) Male 48.35% 47.84% 47.69% Female 51.65% 52.16% 52.31% Age (%) 0-14 years 33.19% 34% 31.9% years 62.27% 61% 63.1% over 65 years 4.53% 5% 4.9% HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.82% 16.42% 15.68% Aids Deaths 1.27% 1.26% 1.20% Unemployment Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.39% 30.6% 33% Type of Employment (%) Youth Unemployment Rate 37.2% 42.1% Formal 78.32% 76.81% 76.98% Informal 21.68% 23.19% 23.02% Skill (%) Highly Skilled 11.32% 15.34% 18.07% Employment by Industry (%) Skilled 40.50% 39.00% 43.03% Semi and Unskilled 48.18% 45.67% 38.89% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.52% 10.16% 4.86% Mining and quarrying 0.52% 0.63% 0.80% Manufacturing 16.79% 16.47% 13.19% Electricity, gas and water 0.11% 0.11% 0.29% Construction 6.44% 6.33% 6.31% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 21.98% 21.48% 21.73% Transport, storage and communication 3.26% 3.17% 5.59% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 13.58% 13.28% 14.73% Community, social and personal services 17.19% 16.65% 16.59% General government 10.61% 11.73% 15.92% Gross Value Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.84% 4.47% 4.47% 5

6 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Key Indicator ilembe KwaZulu-Natal Added by Industry (%) Mining and quarrying 0.83% 2.14% 2.14% Manufacturing 29.17% 18.18% 18.18% Electricity, gas and water 0.93% 3.00% 3.00% Construction 2.83% 4.21% 4.21% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 14.83% 15.91% 15.91% Transport, storage and communication 7.21% 12.27% 12.27% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 19.85% 18.37% 18.37% Community, social and personal services 5.08% 7.12% 7.12% General government 9.43% 14.32% 14.32% Expenditure (%) Durable Goods 10.08% 7.90% 7.79% Domestic Fixed Investment (%) Semi-Durable Goods 13.00% 9.18% 9.09% Non-Durable Goods 36.02% 41.75% 40.80% Services 40.90% 41.16% 42.33% Buildings and construction works 32.57% 38.84% 45.24% Machinery and other equipment 49.22% 48.27% 39.45% Transport equipment 16.64% 11.49% 13.88% Transfer costs 1.58% 1.40% 1.42% Source: Quantec Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) with some Census 2011 data where available 6

7 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 OVERVIEW OF THE ILEMBE DISTRICT ECONOMY The ilembe District is situated on the east coast of South Africa, in the KwaZulu-Natal Province. ilembe is one of the 11 district municipalities of the KwaZulu-Natal province and is also the smallest District in the province, with a total population of approximately 606,809. The District covers approximately 3260 square kilometres and is divided into four local municipalities. The four municipalities are: Ndwedwe Mandeni KwaDukuza Maphumulo ilembe is located between two of Africa s busiest ports, Durban and Richards Bay, on the primary economic development corridor in the province, and is therefore well positioned not only to local, but also international markets. The recent development of King Shaka International Airport and the Dube Trade Port just a few kilometres from the southern border of ilembe has magnified what was already a prime investment destination. Despite its strategic location, ilembe faces numerous economic challenges such as the high levels of poverty in the rural inland areas, which contrasts with rapid development along its coastal regions. The District has been proactive in developing Enterprise ilembe, a broad based institution aimed at facilitating local economic development, in response to its challenges of high rates of unemployment and correspondingly high levels of poverty. 7

8 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 LATEST NEWS AND DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN ILEMBE Hlomendlini Cultural Event On the 22 nd of December 2012 Enterprise ilembe partnered with the Traditional Council of Hlomendlini (Doringkop) to host the first tourism cultural ceremony which was held in honour of 120 young maidens who preserved themselves and their virginity. Stepping Stone Productions headed up by two of South Africa s leading actors namely Rapulana Siepemo and Kenneth Nkosi, documented this historical event in the excitement of both the community and the maidens alike. We hope that this event can become an annual event in order to bring in more tourists within the District and hopefully investment within the communities like Hlomendlini. The event was also attended by the Mayor of Mandeni, Princess Nandi and other business people. Ballito Urban Improvement Precinct (UIP) Based on the Umhlanga UIP success story the ilembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (ICCIT) opened exploratory discussions about establishing a UIP in Ballito with Brian Wright, the driver behind the Umhlanga UIP. This led to an extensive process of pulling together key property owners and representatives in Ballito, which resulted in a mandate from these stakeholders and ICCIT members to allow the Chamber to open initial discussions with the municipality in September The successful outcome was the municipality adopting a resolution to research and adopt UIP policy allowing for the official establishment of a UIP. What is a UIP and what does it mean for Ballito? The UIP is a private sector driven initiative which works in partnership with the municipality to optimise municipal service delivery while providing supplementary services to PUBLIC AREAS, see The aim of the UIP: Secure property values, retain existing investment and create future value Build investor and business confidence in the precinct Support vibrant business activity and economic opportunity Improve the quality of life for those whose who live, work and visit Ballito The UIP mechanism is based on the Municipal Property Rates Act of 2004, which makes provision for the establishment of what is technically termed a Special Rating Area (SRA). The SRA is a defined geographic area within which the majority of property owners agree to pay for certain services supplementary to those supplied by the municipality. The levy is 8

9 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 collected by the municipality at no cost and paid over to the property owner Non Profit Company for delivery of services as determined by an annual Business Plan. Because the UIP mechanism is best suited to economic, tourism and mixed use nodes, there are two proposed precincts, which will be operationally managed as one integrated area under the Ballito UIP structure. These are the commercial node comprising the business park and surrounding commercial properties and the promenade node comprising all properties bordering the promenade and the commercial node on the southern end of the promenade. To formally initiate the UIP requires a Feasibility Study which focuses on public areas. The Feasibility Study proposal has been approved by the UIP Steering Committee comprising property owners and stakeholders located within the proposed precinct. The study is expected to be completed in the first quarter of

10 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 ENTERPRISE ILEMBE UPDATE (Q4 2012) Enterprise ilembe is the Economic Development Agency for the ilembe District responsible for Trade & Investment Promotion and Economic Development in the region. Since their inception, the agency has been responsible for an enormous amount of development and promotion within the district, which has resulted in real infrastructure and employment creation. Some examples of this development include: Agricultural Projects: Enterprise ilembe has been prolific in their initiation of diverse and unique agricultural projects. These projects have created 674 jobs thus far. These include: Agri-processing hubs: This project involves the establishment of 8 hydroponic (tunnel) farms in the four local municipalities. Over R17 million has been invested into this project to date, 140 jobs created, and profits are already being reaped through the sale of high quality fruit and vegetables harvested. Tunnels at Mathonsi, Maphumulo and Bulwer Farm are producing tomatoes, peppers, Cucumbers, Israeli Cucumbers, Baby Marrows, Patty Pans, Baby Gem Squash and Baby Butternut beginning to sprout. The second phase of the tunnels is waiting for electricity to be connected before completion. Project Funder is the Department of Cooperative Governance & Traditional Affairs. Open Farms: This project involves supporting community-based co-operatives to establish viable agricultural gardens which produce vegetables such as cabbage, butternut, potatoes, onions, etc. for both community needs and for sale in the market as processed products. 600 jobs have been retained through co-operatives across 18 farms. R1.5 million has been invested in this project by the ilembe District Vineyards & Winery: ILembe Vineyard project involves the establishment of a primary Villard Blanc crop that is being grown as a catalyst to the establishment of a wine industry in the district. Vineyards in Nyoni, Ndwedwe and Maphumlo were planted and are about to yield the first harvests. Thus far, 50 direct jobs have been created across the 10.1 hectares of vineyards that have been planted, and R8million has been invested. The winery has been built at Collisheen Estate just outside of Ballito and is ready to start producing wine. R5millon has been invested in this project by thedepartment of Cooperative Governance & Traditional Affairs. ILembe Moringa Tree Plantation: This Project has now been completed; plantations have been planted in three Municipalities: Mandeni, Maphumulo and Ndwedwe. Approximately trees have been planted. The cooperatives will start harvesting in December The Department of Cooperative Governance & Traditional Affairs has invested R3.5million into this project. 10

11 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Manufacturing Projects: Bio-diesel Manufacturing: This project aims to establish a bio diesel processing plant, delivering vehicle-grade diesel from used oil (initially) and ultimately from Moringa seed (as mentioned above). The Biodiesel Processing Facility has received the Environmental Authorization, the draft Waste Management license has been approved by the Department of Environmental Affairs and has been forwarded to the Provincial Department for review. Enterprise ilembe has since submitted the Manufacturing License application and adverts notifying the interested and affected parties of this application have been published in print media. An application to the Department of Energy has also been lodged. The Department of Cooperative Governance & Traditional Affairs has invested R6million into this project. Agri Processing Facilities: This is the third phase of the Agricultural Processing facility project. This project ultimately aims to link the greenhouses and open fields within the four local municipal areas to an advanced Agric processing centre, for the enhancement of post-agricultural activities such as chopping, packing, grading and sorting of produce grown in the District s gardens. A technical partner has been appointed and the project has commenced. The Department of Cooperative Governance & Traditional Affairs has invested R7.4million into this project. Marketing and Communications: Enterprise ilembe continues to establish new and maintain existing partnerships with various stakeholders and institutions in order to further the mandate of the agency. This is ongoing through media articles and social media platforms and delegate hosting. Recent articles include the biodiesel project in the Food & Beverage Magazine and the vineyard project in the Life&Style newspaper. The region gained immense exposure through the SABC3 Expresso adverts and 5minute feature aired from October The winners of the North Coast Big reported increased interest since the airing of the feature. Recent hostings included the Provincial Tourism Committee and the Munimec Meeting For more information on these projects and a large amount of potential investment opportunities visit 11

12 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 SECTION ONE: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (QUARTERLY DATA) Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 4, 2012 Quarter 4, like quarter 3, of 2012 was defined by the striking domino effect: as one mining strike was resolved, another would begin, and then the agricultural sector strikes began. A weakening rand remains cause for concern as petrol price hikes further dampen spending by business across the value chain and private households. Perhaps the most worrying economic data to come out of quarter was, however, the labour statistics which show a failing labour market. The quarterly labour force survey shows that South Africa lost approximately 755 jobs for every day of the previous quarter. The labour force decreased by persons between Q3: 2012 and Q4: This decrease was reflected in a decrease in the number of both unemployed persons ( ) and employed persons (68 000), which saw the unemployment rate decline by 0,6 of a percentage point from 25,5% to 24,9% in Q4: Unfortunately for us here in ilembe, the majority of those job losses were in KZN. The QLFS shows that the majority of jobs were lost in the private households and trade industries which reflect a slowdown in spending by private households as residents only buy necessities from retail shops and retrench domestic workers. The ADCORP employment index for January 2013 shows further massive job losses. With petrol and electricity costs increasing rapidly, the introduction of transport levies such as e-tolling along the Gauteng N3 corridor between Jhb and Pretoria, and high levels of job losses, one wonders how private households will manage to stay afloat. In these circumstances it is promising that 68% of all ilembe companies surveyed in the quarter 4 business confidence surveys said that the number of people employed by their business had stayed the same. 16% of all businesses said that the number of people employed had decreased, but this was balanced by 16% of businesses who said the number had increased. Furthermore, business confidence was at a two year high for both business and tourism businesses in quarter 4. The number and value of buildings completed in KwaDukuza was also at a two year high, with a notable increase in the number and value of commercial and industrial building. The introduction of a UIP in Ballito and EI s continued development projects will only add to business confidence and building activity is going to be a difficult year for the national economy and it will be felt strongly by private households and both the employed and unemployed. It is unlikely that ilembe will avoid the impact of this altogether, however, local indicators show that it has the potential to withstand the bulk of it. 12

13 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Business Confidence The business confidence section is made up of the ilembe BCI which is based on surveys conducted online in the district, the national BER BCI which is also based on surveys, and the national SACCI BCI which is based on market analysis. Enterprise ilembe Business Survey Both the business and tourism surveys are conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to businesses that are registered with the ilembe Business Chamber, and businesses on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). There are no criteria for businesses to take part in the business survey (other than they must be located in ilembe). Business Confidence Business confidence is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing business conditions. The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 4 of 2012 is 7.2 which means that 72% of respondents are satisfied with the business conditions. The index has increased quite substantially by 20 points from quarter when it was 5.2. This is the highest since the commencement of this survey as is portrayed in the graph below. Prevailing Business Conditions Businesses were asked to indicate movement (increase, decrease, no change) in certain indicators within their business in quarter 4, 2012 compared with quarter 3, As shown in the graph below, the majority of respondents said that their business conditions had remained unchanged (between 45% and 67%). Interestingly, the remainder was spread between improved and worsened conditions (between 30 and 20% 13

14 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 respectively). The most positive results were for the demand of goods and services which 36.7% of businesses say has increased in quarter 4 (largely seasonal). The largest constraints to business growth in quarter 4 are the same as in quarter 3. These are poor municipal services, the small size of the local market, and poor infrastructure. Future Expectations Businesses were asked to estimate movement in indicators within their business in the next quarter (1 2013) in comparison to the current quarter (4 2012). Expectations are positive with the vast majority of businesses stating that all indicators will either stay the same or improve in quarter This is in line with the high business confidence. 14

15 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Business Profile The majority of businesses this quarter are in the construction and manufacturing industries. 63% of respondents are part of the ilembe Business Chamber. The graphs below describe the number of full time staff, average annual turnover and location of businesses who responded. The majority of businesses (45%) have less than 5 staff members, with 13% having staff. The majority of businesses turn over between R2million to R10million (24%), and R to R2million (35%) annually. This profile suggests that the majority of respondents are small businesses who reside in greater Ballito. SACCI Business Confidence Index The SACCI BCI reflects that Business Confidence ended on a low note in The BCI increased from 91.7 points in November 2012 to 93 in December The slight improvement in the December 2012 figure is offset by the fact that the fourth quarter was the poorest performing quarter in Given that 2010 is the current BCI base year (at 100 points), the deterioration to an average of 94.1 for 2012 after averaging 119 in 2006 gives an indication of the extent of decrease of local business confidence in recent years. 15

16 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Source: South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry Business Confidence Index (December 2012) Press Release The BER/RMB Business Confidence Index The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) has declined to level 46 in the fourth quarter. However, sentiment improved in four of the five sectors making up the composite index. New motor vehicle trade was the exception from the improvement where confidence dropped a large 25 index point during the fourth quarter. There was a slight improvement in the business mood among manufacturers, with the index climbing by five points to 38. Business confidence for retailers and wholesalers continue to rise where retail index improved by eight points to 54. Wholesale index improved by four points to 57. Source: 16

17 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Key Findings: Business Confidence The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 4 of 2012 is 7.2 The index has increased quite substantially by 20 points from quarter when it was 5.2. This is the highest since the commencement of this survey. The SACCI BCI reflects that Business Confidence ended on a low note in 2012 at 93 index points. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) has declined to level 46 in the fourth quarter largely due to the decline in vehicle sales business confidence. 17

18 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza The following section looks at the total area of building plans approved, submitted and completed; the number of new water connection made; and the number of new single phase and triple phase electricity connections made over the last year in KwaDukuza. KwaDukuza has been chosen because it represents the majority of activity in ilembe. Building Plans, KwaDukuza The graph below shows the total value (millions of rand) of building plans (including additions, alterations and deviations) approved, submitted and completed since January The total value of building plans approved in Quarter 4 was R479 million, the total value submitted was R288 million, and the total value completed was R473.6 million. Completions were at their highest point in two years in quarter 4 which is promising. Approvals also remained high, while submissions decreased which is largely due to the end of the year approaching. Building plans approved and completed in quarter three and four show increased activity and development in KwaDukuza which is positive. Source: KwaDukuza, info for July and September 2011 not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations The table below gives a breakdown of the total area (m 2 ) of approvals, submissions and completions this year. Reside ntial APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Comme rcial Indust rial Total* Reside ntial Commer cial Industri al Total* Reside ntial Comme rcial Indust rial Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Total* 18

19 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Reside ntial APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Comme rcial Indust rial Total* Reside ntial Commer cial Industri al Total* Reside ntial Comme rcial Indust rial Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 12 8, ,320 4, , ,238 Nov ,953 7,363 5,215 2,105 16, ,331 Dec1 2 4, ,940 8,885 5, , ,386 Source: KwaDukuza, info for July and September 2011 not supplied Total* New water connections, KwaDukuza The graph below describes the number of new water connections made in KwaDukuza since the beginning of The number of water connection in quarter 4, 2012 has not been provided by KwaDukuza municipality. The number of water connections in Q was 234, up by 107% from 127 in Q2. The number of water connections made increased in Q in comparison to 2010 and 2011 which suggests an increase in construction of residents, commercial and industrial premises Total Water Connections, KwaDukuza Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: KwaDukuza 19

20 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 New electricity connections, KwaDukuza The graphs show the number of new single and three phase electricity connections for KwaDukuza. The number of new single phase connections represents the number of new small residential (3 bedroom house) and low cost housing (including prepaid connections). The graph shows a substantial decrease in single phase connections between quarter and quarter Connections have decreased to the lowest in three years (37 new connections). The number of three phase connections represents larger, upmarket urban houses (with air conditioning etc.). Three phase connections have levelled back to 15 this quarter. The number of maximum demand connections (commercial and industrial buildings) is 3 this quarter which is higher than it has been since This suggests a possible increase in commercial development. Source: KwaDukuza Key Findings: Building Plans and new service connections, KwaDukuza Completions were at their highest point in two years in quarter 4 which is promising. Approvals also remained high, while submissions decreased which is largely due to the end of the year approaching. Building plans approved and completed in quarter three and four show increased activity and development in KwaDukuza which is positive. The number of three phase and single phase connections have decreased again this quarter, however, there were three connections for maximum demand which suggests new commercial/industrial development. 20

21 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Transport Trends This section describes trends in road vehicles, airport trends and port movements within ilembe, the province and nationally. Vehicle Registrations The figure below indicates the quarter-to-quarter new additional vehicle registrations per licencing district, while the table below shows the total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district. This is a good reflection on sales and economic activity in these areas. In KwaDukuza, vehicle registrations increased by 659 vehicles to 39,973 which is the same as the increase in quarter 4 of the previous year. New vehicle registrations in Maphumulo declined by 6 to 748 in quarter 4 and new vehicle registrations declined by 1 to 450 in Ndwedwe Mapumulo Ndwedwe Stanger Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Source: The table below shows the total number of vehicles registered in Maphumulo, KwaDukuza and Ndwedwe. There has been a decline in Ndwedwe and Maphumulo while steady growth takes place in KwaDukuza. Maphumulo currently has 748, Ndwedwe 450, and KwaDukuza vehicles registered to be on the road. 21

22 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Table: Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district Total Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>3500kg,not to draw) Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>3500kg,equp to draw) Light Load Vehicle (GVM 3500kg or less) Heavy passenger mv (12 or more persons) Maphumulo Light passenger MV(less than 12 persons) Minibus Motorcycle/Motor tricycle/quadrucycle Q Q Q Q Q Ndwedwe Q Q Q Q Q Stanger Q Q Q Q Q KZN TOTAL Q Q Q Q Source: Special Vehicle Unknown 22

23 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Airport Passenger Movement King Shaka International Airport lies on the North Coast and is only approximately 13km from Ballito and therefore has a direct impact on the local economy. The graph below describes the number of passengers per quarter for each of the international airports. King Shaka International experiences the least passenger traffic at an average of passengers per month out of the three international airports. Passenger numbers in Durban have increased by 1% to , passenger numbers in O.R Tambo have decreased by 5% to and passenger numbers in Cape Town have increased by 11.4% to in quarter 4 of Passenger numbers through all three airports are lower in quarter than they were in quarter Source: Port Movements Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa. This is economically significant for ilembe because ilembe is situated between these two ports and therefore, the activity of these two ports is a good gage of economic activity in the area in general. The table below gives figures for total cargo handled, number of vessel calls and gross tonnage of vessels for the previous year in Durban, Richards Bay and South Africa. The figures in red show a decrease from the previous quarter and the figures in green show an increase. In Richards Bay cargo handled increased to , the total number of vessels increased to 440 and gross tonnage decreased to in quarter 4 of In Durban the total cargo handled decreased to , total number of vessels dropped to 1020 and gross tonnage of vessels increased to in quarter 4. All indicators have increased in total for South 23

24 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Africa with cargo handled at , total number of vessels is at 2807 and gross tonnage of vessels is in quarter 4. Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels Richards Bay Durban Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q South Africa Q Source: PORTS & SHIPS Key Findings: Transport Trends New vehicle registrations in Stanger increased by 659 vehicles to 39,973 which is the same as the increase in quarter 4 of the previous year. New vehicle registrations in Maphumulo declined by 6 to 748 in quarter 4 and new vehicle registrations declined by 1 to 450 in Ndwedwe. Passenger numbers in Durban have increased by 1% to 1,190,230, passenger numbers in O.R Tambo have decreased by 5% to 4,821,631 and passenger numbers in Cape Town have increased by 11.4% to 2 227,848 in quarter 4 of Indicators for Richards Bay are as follows; cargos handled increased to , the total number of vessels increased to 440 and gross tonnage decreased to in quarter 4 of In Durban the total cargo handled decreased to , total number of vessels dropped to 1020 and gross tonnage of vessels increased to in quarter 4. All indicators have increased in total for South Africa. 24

25 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Tourism Trends This section discusses the results from the tourism quarterly survey conducted by Enterprise ilembe; and the number of visitors to the Sangweni Information Centre in Ballito this quarter. Tourism Survey The tourism confidence survey is conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and is run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to tourism places of accommodation on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). Tourism Business Confidence Similarly to the business survey, business confidence for tourism in ilembe is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing tourism conditions. It is clear from the graph below that tourism confidence (blue line) has increased this quarter to 6.7. Confidence is higher this quarter than all previous quarters. Tourism Business Confidence Trend Percentage of Respondents Q Q Q Q Q Q Quarters Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Prevailing Business Conditions (Tourism) The graph below shows the trend for demand for tourism services over the previous year. It is positive to see that 50% of respondents experienced high demand in quarter 4, increased from 25% in quarter 3. 33% experienced medium demand; however, 17% experienced low demand which is not a positive trend in the peak tourism season. 25

26 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 The graph below describes occupancy as compared to the previous quarter and the previous year. The majority of tourism businesses (50%-55%) said that occupancy remained the same in quarter 4 compared to the previous year and the previous quarter. 40% of businesses said that occupancy decreased in quarter 4 in comparison to quarter 4 last year which is possibly a result of COP17 which inflated occupancy in quarter 4 of Future Expectations (Tourism) 8% of respondents expect bookings to increase over the next quarter (Q1 2013), a 50% decrease from the previous quarter. This is in line with seasonal trends. 26

27 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Number of tourists visiting Sangweni Tourism Information Centre, 2012 The number of people who make any type of query at the Sangweni Tourism Information Office in Ballito is recorded monthly and gives an indication of the number of new tourists visiting Ballito. This represents estimated figures for the North Coast but gives a useful indication of trends based on a segment of tourists in the North Coast. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased to 65 visitors in quarter 4, while local visitors increased to 981 visitors in quarter 4 mostly due to a peak in October of 399 visitors. Source: Sangweni Tourism Information Centre Key Findings: Tourism Tourism confidence has increased this quarter to 6.7 which, similar to other business confidence, is the highest since the survey commenced over a year ago. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased to 65 visitors in quarter 4 while local visitors increased to 981 visitors, after peaking at 399 in October. 27

28 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Employment Indices for South Africa The following employment indices and indicators are drawn from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by StatsSA, and the Adcorp Employment Index which is released by Adcorp monthly. These are for South Africa and KZN as quarterly data is not available for ilembe as yet. Quarterly Labour Force Survey The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is a household-based sample survey conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). It collects data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 years and above who live in South Africa. For the second quarter this year the South African labour market has lost jobs. This is the first time in years that jobs have been shed in the fourth quarter. The labour force decreased by persons between Q3: 2012 and Q4: This decrease was reflected in a decrease in the number of both unemployed persons ( ) and employed persons (68 000), which saw the unemployment rate decline by 0,6 of a percentage point from 25,5% to 24,9% in Q4: This means that the national economy shed 755 jobs a day in the previous quarter. Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 4, 2012 Between Q3:2012 and Q4:2012, the decline in total employment was mainly driven by the decrease in the number of employed persons in Private households (48 000), Trade (41 000) and Transport (18 000) industries, while employment gains were observed in Agriculture (24 000), Construction (15 000) and Mining (8 000). The table below shows that there were job losses in four of the nine provinces, with the largest declines observed in Eastern Cape (69 000), KwaZulu-Natal (40 000) and Gauteng (16 000). There were employment gains in Mpumalanga (31 000), Western Cape (18 000) and Limpopo (8 000) over the same period. Up until 28

29 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 this quarter, KZN had been one of the best performing provinces with regard to job gains and lowering unemployment rates. Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 4, 2012 Adcorp Employment Index As there was no index conducted in December 2012, January 2013 has been used. Employment fell sharply in January 2013, falling at an annualized rate of 3.2%. During the month, the economy lost 51,495 jobs. Job losses were observed in all contract types, with permanent jobs declining most, by 5.3% or 40,232, representing nearly 80% of the job losses observed during the month. All sectors experienced declines in employment, with the greatest declines observed in wholesale and retail trade (-8.8% or 13,000 jobs) and mining (-17.4% or 4,000 jobs). 29

30 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Key Findings: Employment According to the QLFS, the labour force decreased by persons between Q3: 2012 and Q4: This decrease was reflected in a decrease in the number of both unemployed persons ( ) and employed persons (68 000), which saw the unemployment rate decline by 0,6 of a percentage point from 25,5% to 24,9% in Q4: This means that the national economy shed 755 jobs a day in the previous quarter. As there was no index conducted in December 2012, January 2013 has been used. Employment fell sharply in January 2013, falling at an annualized rate of 3.2%. During the month, the economy lost 51,495 jobs. 30

31 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012) In 2011 the Ballito Chamber of Commerce Tourism and Industry implemented its first business retention and expansion programme. Following the success of the programme, and recognising that up to 80% of all new jobs are created by the growth of existing business, the Chamber with support from Itala Bank and funding from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), decided to implement a programme in the Isithebe Industrial Estate. The programme was launched on 6 September The majority of firms interviewed (72%) are in wholesale retail or motor trade whilst about 15% are wholesale, retail and motor trade. Out of the 59 respondents 3 were in construction and building and one in transport. Almost 80% of firms are locally owned, with the remainder of the 10% being branches of either national or international companies.almost all businesses are locally owned. Almost 77% of the respondents are well established having being in Isithebe for over 10 years, with 12% being in existence for about 5 years. Only 2 businesses interviewed have been in Isithebe for less than 1 year. National customers (around South Africa) are the main source of sales for 53% of the businesses surveyed while another 20% focus predominantly on the KwaZulu Natal and an equal amount do business with local customers from in and around Mandeni. Only 8% focus their sales internationally. Employment Between them the businesses surveyed employ 4831 men and 3633 women, i.e., a total of Of these 85% are full time, 7% part time and 8% are casuals or contractors. In light of the recession 40% of the respondents said they had decreased the number of people employed over the last two years while almost the same amount 38% said there had been no change in numbers. The reasons cited include economic restraint conditions, or closure of specific company departments, and poor labour relations. A quarter of respondents (21%) have increased the number of people employed mostly due to business expansions, and increased production demands. More optimistically, 36% of businesses interviewed expect to employ more people over the next two years, while about 46% expect their numbers to remain the same due to projected business growth and expansion. Business Environment Relative cost of land and property was cited by 44% of businesses interviewed, as the main advantage of doing business in Isithebe, whilst 40% feel that reliability of electricity and water and access to customers are the main advantages. The most frequently (47%) mentioned disadvantage was high crime rate. Next on the list for an equal number of respondents (42%) of businesses was availability of skills locally and access to suppliers. 31

32 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 The cost and reliability of transport and access to customers were also disadvantages for many businesses in Isithebe. With the onset of an oppressive economic climate, 45% of businesses said sales had decreased over the last two years. The majority of businesses however have optimistic outlooks for the future with 49% expect sales to increase over the next 2 years. Business Opportunities The vast majority (96%) cited availability as the reason for purchasing from outside of Mandeni. Most of these products are specific raw materials needed in manufacturing, but a vast number also cited the need for stationery. Other products that they would like purchase locally or have a bigger pool to source from include basic hardware and fresh produce. There was a strong opinion about on what new businesses might succeed in Isithebe. The most frequently mentioned was a stationery and general office equipment store, as well as a restaurant and take away store. Other suggestions were businesses who sell electrical components, and a major logistics/transport hub. Future Plans On the other hand 70% of business people say they have plans to expand or change their businesses. Some intend to acquire bigger premises or open new company branches; many are diversifying into new products or services. Most interviewees see new machinery and equipment (56%) and improved staff skills (43%) and new products (43%) as the key to improved performance in the year ahead. Improved labour relations (34%) would also help. Other ideas include trade information and improved management skills. Key Findings: Business Retention and Expansion Survey Labour laws and regulations are seen by 70% as a constraint to growth. Businesses supplying goods and services to factories in Isithebe are facing a declining market as firms close or relocate. The availability of artisans and skilled machinists is a constraint to growth. Access to suppliers, maintenance, repairs, service and spares is a disadvantage. Transport is increasingly costly; road transport is the only option since the rail service was withdrawn. 32

33 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 SECTION TWO: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (BASE DATA) Most socio-economic data is not available on a quarterly basis at a District and Municipal level. This section comprises of the most recent annual economic intelligence and statistical analysis available for ilembe and its LMs. It is broken down into various sub-sections, which include a demographic profile; a socioeconomic profile; education, employment and skills; and economic activity. Where Census data is available, it has been updated. Where census data is not yet available, Quantec Regional Data for 2011 has been used. Which source of data has been used is indicated at the bottom of each graph. Demographic Profile Population and Households Recent Census results show that the population in ilembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum. The trend of migration from rural local municipalities of Maphumulo and Ndwedwe to coastal and more urban LMs of Mandeni and especially KwaDukuza is evident. The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum. Households in KwaDukuza have grown at a fairly high rate of 4.8% per annum, whereas households in Maphumulo have declined by 1%. Average household size is 3.8 and the percentage of female headed households is 45.8% which is above the national average of 41%, but average for KZN. Table Population and Households (2011) Population Households Number Population Growth (% p.a.) Number Household Growth (% p.a.) Average Household Size Female Headed Households % ilembe 606, , % Maphumulo 96, , % Mandeni 138, , % KwaDukuza 231, , % Ndwedwe 140, , % Source: StatsSA, Census 2011 Population Groups The graph below displays the split of the population of the district and local municipalities by population group. For the district and all local municipalities besides KwaDukuza, Africans comprise over 90% of the total population, with KwaDukuza having the largest Asian population (predominately Indian) of 18.3%. KwaDukuza 33

34 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 also contributes the largest portion of Whites (5.3%) of which a large number reside in the urban area of Ballito. Maphumulo comprises the largest African population (99.9%). In terms of average yearly growth rates, the Black and Asian populations declined slightly over the previous 5 years, whereas the coloured and white populations experienced a positive growth rate. Graph Racial Profile for 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) Gender Profile The graph below displays the gender distribution of the district and local populations. There are 91 males in ilembe for every 100 females. KwaDukuza is the most even at almost 50% each, whereas Maphumulo is the most uneven with only 81 males for every 100 females. Graph Gender Profile 2011 Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) 34

35 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Age Profile The graph below provides an indication of the age distribution within the district. 34% of the district s population is under the age of 15, 61% is made up of the working age population (15-64), and only 5% are 65 and over. The youngest population is found in Maphumulo (41%) and KwaDukuza has the highest working age population (67%). Graph Age Distribution for 2011 Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) The dependency ratio describes the number of dependents per 100 people between the age of 15 and 64. Dependents are people who cannot work due to their young (under the age of 15), or old (over the age of 65) age. A high dependency ratio is a large burden to carry for carers who are in many cases unemployed. The highest dependency ratio of almost 90 people per 100 working age people is in Maphumulo and the lowest is in 50 in KwaDukuza. The average for ilembe is 63. Graph Dependency Ratio Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) 35

36 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Education Profile The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling. The number of people with higher education has decreased from 3.7% to 3.1% in 2011 which is alarming and shows possible out migration of highly skilled workers. The number of people with matric has increased to 26.6% in 2011 which is a per cent less than the average for South Africa. It is promising to see that 91.3% of all children between the ages of 6 and 13 are enrolled in primary education. Table Education Profile, 2011 Education Profile No Schooling Higher Education Matric Primary Educational Enrolment aged ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) HIV/AIDS Deaths The final demographic indicator is that of HIV positive individuals and AIDS Deaths recorded. The graph below displays these trends. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). This is 1% higher than the average for the province. The number of HIV infections increased by 0.7% in Graph HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) 36

37 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Key Findings: Demographic Profile Recent Census results show that the population in ilembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum, out-migration to coastal LMs persists; The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum; 34% of the population is under the age of 15 years, 62% of the ilembe population falls within the working age bracket (15 64 years), and only 5% is over the age of 65 years. The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). 37

38 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Socio-Economic Indicators Five socio-economic indicators are assessed before moving onto an analysis of growth indicators. The indicators analysed below are used as a measure of growth of social infrastructure such refuse removal, electricity, access to water, type of housing and type of toilets. Household Services Household services in ilembe are, in general, well below the national average. The number of houses with a flush toilet connected to sewerage on their property has increased by only 1% to 22.5% in 2011 (average for KZN is 40%). The percentage of houses with weakly refuse removal is 34%, but is as low as 2% in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe and as high as 60% in KwaDukuza. 24% of houses have piped water inside the dwelling which is half the national average. 71.4% of all houses have electricity. It is clear that KwaDukuza and Mandeni both have below average service delivery, while Maphumulo and Ndwedwe have near to no services at all, electricity being the only exception. This is indicative of municipalities with a severe service infrastructure backlog and a scattered settlement pattern that often comes with traditional land. Table Household Services, 2011 HOUSEHOLDS SERVICES Flush Toilet connected to sewerage % Weekly Refuse Removal % Piped Water Inside Dwelling % Electricity for Lighting % ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe SOUTH AFRICA KWAZULU-NATAL Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) Type of Dwelling 64% of the households in ilembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38% since This is highest in KwaDukuza (64%) and lowest in Maphumulo (22.9%). 57% of these dwellings are owned or being paid off. 38

39 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Table Percentage of formal dwellings and ownership, Census 2011 Formal Dwellings % % Housing owned/paying off % change % change ilembe % % Maphumulo % % Mandeni % % KwaDukuza % % Ndwedwe % % Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012) Key Findings: Socio-Economic Indicators Household services in ilembe are, in general, well below the national average with Maphumulo having almost no services other than electricity; 64% of the households in ilembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38% since

40 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Employment Indicators The graph below provides unemployment rates and youth unemployment rates for the district and LMs. The district s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). While unemployment is above the national average, it is average for KZN. Youth unemployment is substantially lower than both the national and KZN average (with the exception of Maphumulo and Ndwedwe). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively. Graph Employment Status in 2011 Source: StatsSA Census, 2011 (2012) The table below provides a comparison with Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in ilembe by 36% and 33% respectively since Table Unemployment 2001 vs 2011 Unemployment Rate Youth (15-34) Unemployment Rate % change % change ilembe % % Maphumulo % % Mandeni % % KwaDukuza % % Ndwedwe % % Source: StatsSA Census, 2011 (2012) The graph below shows the percentage contribution of employment by industry for ilembe and each of the LMs. The majority of employment in ilembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%). The majority of employment in Ndwedwe is in agriculture, 40

41 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 the majority of employment in Mandeni is in manufacturing, employment in Maphumulo is being sustained by government employment, and employment in KwaDukuza is most diversified across all sectors. Graph Employment contribution by industry and local municipality, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below shows the 10 year employment trend for ilembe. Agriculture has gone from the sector that employs the most people, to the sector that employs the 6 th most people. Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by and jobs respectively. The majority of job gains over the previous 5 years were in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors and the government and community services sectors. 41

42 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Graph Employment by Sector for ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below displays the breakdown of formal employment into the three skills categories. Between 14% and 16% of the formally employed in all municipalities are highly skilled, with the exception of Maphumulo which has 24% of its employment as highly skilled. This increase is mainly in government services, but also transport and communications. The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in ilembe has increased by 4% over the previous year, however, it is still lower than the average for KZN of 18%. Just over 39% of the formally employed district population are skilled persons, and 45.7% are semi and unskilled. 42

43 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Graph Formal Employment by Skill Level in 2011 Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The Informal Economy South Africa s informal sector is the unofficial part of the economy whereby many people are forced to eke out a meagre economic existence through lack of formal job opportunities. This sector of the economy, which evades income taxes and circumvents labour laws, now represents over 30% of SA S potential workforce and is the fastest growing sector. The graph below displays the distribution of formal and informally employed persons. In ilembe, about 23% of the working age population are informally employed, while approximately 77% are formally employed. Within the district, all the local municipalities display a similar trend, however with only 16% informal employment displayed in Maphumulo. 43

44 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Graph Formal and Informal Employment in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The informal economy in ilembe is heterogenic, ranging from average street traders and shebeen owners to child carers and domestic workers. It is often characterised by its flexibility, creativity, resilience to absorb shocks, and its ability to adapt to changing external environments. The largest informal economy exists in KwaDukuza. The following table describes the type of informal activities that occur in KwaDukuza and their estimated size. Table Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza Types of informal Activities Estimated Number Taxi and Minibus operators 200 Tourism (B&B, Tour guides) 10 Informal Builders 500 Domestic Workers Agriculture (urban subsistence) 60 Light industries (tailors, Dressmakers and hatters, Embroiderers and related workers, plumbers, welders) 2000 Informal technicians (shoe, watch, car, furniture, etc. repairers ) 2000 Street traders Numbers Barbers and Hairdressers 1000 Fruit sellers 2000 Craft and bead sellers 100 Cardboard collectors 40 Live chicken sellers 50 44

45 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Millie cookers 50 Newspaper vendors 5 Second hand clothes dealers 20 Tavern and shebeen operators 2000 Spaza shop owners 2000 Street food vendors 1000 Traditional Medicine practitioners and Muthi traders 150 Mr. Phone dealers 50 Source: KwaDukuza Business Development Unit, Urban-Econ Interviews Key Findings: Employment Indicators The district s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively.; Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in ilembe by 36% and 33% respectively since 2001; The majority of employment in ilembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%); Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by and jobs respectively; The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in ilembe has increased by 4% over the previous year. 45

46 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Production, Expenditure and Investment This section covers a variety of economic indicators and provides an understanding of the economic status of ilembe, as well as its leading and lagging industries. Gross Geographic Product In 2011 ilembe s GVA (an indicator of gross geographic produce) was R billion. This accounts for 3.8% of KZN s GGP making ilembe the 7 th highest contributor to KZN s GDP out of 11 districts and one metro. ilembe s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years. The majority of growth is being experienced in the tertiary sector which grew by almost 5% in The secondary sector grew by 0.6%, while the primary sector contracted by 0.8%. Graph GVA growth trend by 3 sectors, ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the contribution of each industry to total GGP in For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, contributing 18.4% to total GGP. This sector accounts for 19% of the Mandeni economy, 30% of the KwaDukuza economy, and 18% of the Ndwedwe economy, with manufacturing in Maphumulo only contributing 9%. The finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector has grown by 5.5% over the previous 5 years, despite the recession. Manufacturing is the next highest contributor, contributing 18.2% to total GGP in the district. Manufacturing accounts for 23% of Mandeni s economy, 30% of KwaDukuza s economy, 23% of Ndwedwe s economy and 46

47 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter % of Maphumulo s economy. Manufacturing grew over the previous year by 0.6%, but has declined over the previous 5 years by 0.4% (due to the recession in 2008). Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation contributed the third highest to GDP with 16%, general government contributed 14%, transport, storage and communication contributed 12%, and community services contributed 7%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing now only contribute 4.5% to ilembe s GDP, although it is the most significant sector in Maphumulo. Graph Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Income and Expenditure Average annual income per household for ilembe in 2011 was R (R7 881 per month) which is lower than the previous year. Total household income for 2011 in ilembe was estimated at R billion, of which 93% was used as household expenditure. Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district 47

48 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 are surviving on government grants and remittance. Mandeni and KwaDukuza accounted for 77% of total remuneration in the district which again shows the spatial economic dynamics of the district. The graph below shows the trend in income for ilembe over the previous 10 years. It is evident that current income has increased by 2 billion over the previous 10 years, however, the majority of this increase, especially over the previous 5 years, has been due to increases in unearned income. Unearned income increased by 4.3% over the previous 5 years, and 9.6% from 2010 to 2011, while remuneration only increased by 1.6% and 1.5% in these same years. Graph Income, remuneration and unearned income trends for ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the contribution of expenditure across the four categories of expenditure for each municipality. Durable goods comprised about 7.6% - 9.2% of total expenditure within all of the municipalities, with semi-durable goods comprising between 8% % of total expenditure. The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure. Non-durable goods expenditure was the highest in Ndwedwe (51% of expenditure), while services contributed 40% to expenditure in Mandeni, 47% in KwaDukuza, and almost 36% in Maphumulo. The proportion of expenditure on durable and semi-durable goods has decreased substantially over the previous year which is expected considering that income has reduced over this same period. Graph Distribution of Expenditure in

49 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below provides a detailed breakdown of the sub-categories within each main category as a percentage of total expenditure. Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe. Transport and communication contributed 8.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, while rental contributed 10.5% in the district and Clothing and footwear contributed 5.4% to total expenditure in the district. 49

50 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Graph Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Domestic Fixed Capital Investment A final indicator of economic activity that is assessed is domestic fixed capital investment by type and sector. R1 702 billion was invested into capital in ilembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza. The graph below shows that investment is mainly being directed into machinery and other equipment which is normal for an economy with a large agricultural and/or manufacturing sector. Investment into this category is decreasing, however, along with the agricultural and manufacturing industries and is being replaced by investment into building and construction works as well as transport equipment. 50

51 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Graph Domestic Fixed Investment, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the breakdown of capital investment into the various sectors within ilembe. It is clear that domestic fixed investment in ilembe has been predominately channelled into the manufacturing (29%), transport, storage and communications (16.5%), as well as finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors (15.6%). The most impressive sector over all is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms. However, within the local municipalities the situation varies according to the comparative advantages of that municipality. 24% of investment within Mandeni was in the finance sector, 41% into manufacturing, while investment into transport and storage contributed just over 12%. Within KwaDukuza 10% of investment was into agriculture, 30.5% into manufacturing, 15% into transport and storage and 15% into finance. Investment in Ndwedwe was more evenly distributed between the sectors, with agriculture (19%), manufacturing (15%), electricity, gas and water (18%), transport and storage (14%) and general government (14%) all contributing substantially. In Maphumulo, investment was dominated by the transport, storage and communication sector (43.6%) and the general government sector (almost 25%). 51

52 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Graph Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Key Findings: Production, Expenditure and Investment ilembe s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years; For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, contributing 18.4% to total GGP; Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district are surviving on government grants and remittance; The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure; Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe; R1 702 billion was invested into capital in ilembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza; and The most impressive sector with regard to domestic fixed investment is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms. 52

53 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS The tables below display both the nominal and percentage contribution values for each of the indicators presented in the report. A1.1 Population and Households Population Households Number Population Growth (% p.a.) Number Household Growth (% p.a.) Average Household Size Female Headed Households % ilembe 606, , % Maphumulo 96, , % Mandeni 138, , % KwaDukuza 231, , % Ndwedwe 140, , % A1.2 Racial Profile Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Black 90.7% 93.6% 76.2% 98.2% 99.9% Coloured 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Asian 6.7% 4.4% 17.6% 1.0% 0.0% White 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0% A1.3 HIV and AIDS Number Population HIV Positive AIDS Deaths Percentage Contribution HIV Positive AIDS Deaths ilembe ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 16.4% 18.9% 15.6% 16.8% 14.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% A1.4 Gender Profile ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Number of males per 100 females

54 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 A1.5 Age Profile < ilembe 36.6% 34% 58.5% 61% 4.9% 5% Maphumulo 44.1% 41% 49.6% 53% 6.3% 7% Mandeni 35.2% 33% 61.2% 63% 3.6% 4% KwaDukuza 29.9% 29% 65.7% 67% 4.3% 4% Ndwedwe 39.4% 37% 55.0% 57% 5.6% 6% A1.6 Household Services Flush Toilet connected to sewerage % Weekly Refuse Removal % Piped Water Inside Dwelling % Electricity for Lighting % ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe SOUTH AFRICA KWAZULU-NATAL A1.7 Household Dynamics Households Average Household Size HOUSEHOLDS DYNAMICS Female Headed Households % Formal Dwellings % % Housing owned/paying off ilembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe A1.8 Education Level No Schooling Higher Education EDUCATION (aged 20 +) Matric Primary Educational Enrolment (aged 6-13) ilembe Maphumulo

55 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe A1.9 Employment and Unemployment Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Population - Working age (16-65 years old) Employed - Formal and informal Unemployed Not economically active A1.10 Employment by type and skill level Number Employed - Formal and informal ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Employed - Formal Employed - Formal - Highly skilled Employed - Formal - Skilled Employed - Formal - Semiand unskilled Employed Informal KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni ilembe Percentage Contribution Formally Employed 77% 76% 76% 78% 84% Informally Employed 23% 24% 24% 22% 16% KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni ilembe Percentage Contribution Highly Skilled 15% 15% 14% 16% 24% Skilled 39% 45% 37% 34% 39% Semi and Unskilled 46% 40% 49% 50% 36% A1.11 Employment by Industry Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing

56 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.2% 3.8% 10.8% 21.1% 5.1% Mining and quarrying 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Manufacturing 16.5% 26.9% 15.0% 9.3% 4.0% Electricity, gas and water 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Construction 6.3% 2.2% 7.9% 10.2% 2.9% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 21.5% 25.7% 22.8% 18.4% 5.2% Transport, storage and communication 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 9.1% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 13.3% 22.8% 11.3% 6.0% 7.1% Community, social and personal services 16.7% 9.1% 19.6% 14.2% 31.0% General government 11.7% 5.6% 9.5% 17.2% 35.4% A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services

57 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.5% 9.9% 4.2% 10.5% 21.0% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% Manufacturing 18.2% 22.9% 30.4% 23.3% 15.1% Electricity, gas and water 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 3.7% Construction 4.2% 3.9% 1.4% 4.6% 7.4% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 15.9% 16.8% 18.6% 18.3% 14.9% Transport, storage and communication 12.3% 6.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 18.4% 19.3% 29.6% 17.8% 9.1% Community, social and personal services 7.1% 6.2% 3.0% 6.8% 5.6% General government 14.3% 10.9% 4.4% 10.2% 15.5% A1.13 Expenditure by Category KwaDukuza Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd Mandeni Ndwedwe ilembe quarter) Durable Goods Semi-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Services Total KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Ndwedwe ilembe Contribution Durable Goods 7.9% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% Semi-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods 9.2% 9.9% 8.0% 8.8% 12.4% 41.8% 42.6% 37.6% 51.0% 43.3% Services 41.2% 39.9% 46.8% 31.5% 35.2% 57

58 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Durable Goods Semi- Durable Non- Durable Services ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Furniture, household appliances, etc Personal transport equipment Recreational and entertainment goods Other durable goods Clothing and footwear Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and accessories Recreational and entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods Food, beverages and tobacco Household fuel and power Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical products Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods Rent Household services, including domestic servants Medical services Transport and communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services Miscellaneous services Percentage Contribution Durable Goods Semi- Furniture, household appliances, etc Personal transport equipment Recreational and entertainment goods Other durable goods Clothing and footwear ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 1.54% 1.57% 1.34% 1.74% 2.05% 4.50% 4.19% 4.10% 5.72% 5.48% 1.11% 1.09% 1.38% 0.56% 0.88% 0.74% 0.74% 0.76% 0.68% 0.75% 5.42% 6.17% 4.34% 5.03% 8.11% 58

59 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Durable Non- Durable Services Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and accessories Recreational and entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods Food, beverages and tobacco Household fuel and power Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical products Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods Rent Household services, including domestic servants Medical services Transport and communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services Miscellaneous services ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 1.40% 1.47% 1.16% 1.55% 1.97% 1.39% 1.36% 1.27% 1.66% 1.61% 0.64% 0.58% 0.78% 0.44% 0.49% 0.34% 0.36% 0.43% 0.11% 0.22% 26.57% 27.03% 24.33% 32.33% 26.28% 4.57% 5.42% 3.03% 6.24% 5.99% 4.12% 4.50% 3.83% 3.93% 4.40% 1.45% 1.11% 1.83% 1.29% 1.14% 4.09% 3.67% 3.45% 6.43% 4.78% 0.95% 0.83% 1.17% 0.78% 0.67% 10.55% 9.59% 13.58% 7.27% 5.55% 2.55% 2.58% 2.63% 2.45% 2.29% 6.47% 6.51% 7.24% 4.54% 5.85% 8.59% 8.40% 9.94% 5.72% 7.63% 4.65% 4.91% 4.55% 3.85% 5.33% 8.35% 7.93% 8.87% 7.66% 8.54% A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Total Buildings and construction works Machinery and other equipment Transport equipment Transfer costs Percentage Contribution Buildings and construction works Machinery and other equipment ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 38.8% 31.4% 37.6% 49.7% 51.3% 48.3% 55.4% 50.3% 39.0% 29.6% Transport equipment 11.5% 10.3% 11.2% 10.6% 18.7% Transfer costs 1.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 59

60 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.4% 4.0% 10.4% 19.4% 4.4% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% Manufacturing 29.0% 40.9% 30.5% 14.8% 6.2% Electricity, gas and water 6.0% 1.7% 4.9% 17.9% 4.3% Construction 1.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.6% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 6.6% 1.6% Transport, storage and communication 16.5% 12.6% 14.7% 14.2% 43.6% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 15.6% 24.1% 15.0% 7.1% 6.2% Community, social and personal services 2.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 8.2% General government 10.0% 4.0% 9.8% 13.8% 24.4% A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza Approvals Submissions Completions Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value January February ,730 20,321, ,274 88,310, ,132 53,595,200 March ,115 80,806, , ,871, ,855 70,215,327 April ,278 92,231, ,654 85,104, ,895 72,623,600 60

61 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Approvals Submissions Completions Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value May ,972 70,088, , ,547, ,267 56,281,000 June , ,642, , ,644, , ,105,300 August October November December January February March April May June July August Sep October ,320 87,899, ,912 46,169, ,238 96,858,200 Nov , ,013, , ,465, , ,773,589 Dec , ,629, , ,013, , ,034,000 A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza Single Phase Three Phase Maximum Demand Total Electricity Connections Total Water Connections Jan-March (Q1) April-June (Q2) July August September October November December January February March April May June July

62 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Single Phase Three Phase Maximum Demand Total Electricity Connections Total Water Connections August September October November December A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements King Shaka International OR Tambo International Cape Town International Jan ,781 1,507, ,035 Feb ,166 1,373, ,458 Mar ,680 1,665, ,929 Apr ,985 1,590, ,336 May ,906 1,516, ,991 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 A1.20 Port Movements ,959 1,457, , ,758 1,623, , ,966 1,599, , ,988 1,623, , ,379 1,672, , ,186 1,546, , ,665 1,603, ,823 Richards Bay Durban 62

63 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 4th Quarter 2012 Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, millions) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels (millions) Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, millions) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels (millions) Jan-11 6, ,878 6, ,504 Feb-11 7, ,611 7, ,274 Mar-11 7,031, 146 5,219 5, ,044 Apr-11 6,817, 162 5,108 5, ,559 May-11 6, ,140 6, ,981 Jun-11 5, ,216 7, ,039 Jul-11 6, ,639 6, ,140 Aug-11 8, ,513 7, ,692 Sep-11 6, ,214 6, ,620 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August September October November December

64 REPORT COMPILED FOR: Enterprise ilembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: Fax: REPORT COMPILED BY: Urban-Econ Development Economists 37 Hunt Road, Glenwood Durban, 4001 Tel: Fax: