ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

Transcription

1 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY NOVEMBER 2010 QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS NOVEMBER 2010 AND INTELLIGENCE REPORT SECOND QUARTER 2012 APRIL-JUNE Enterprise ilembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: Fax:

2 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 FOREWORD This intelligence report comprises of an assessment of key economic indicators for the ilembe District for the second quarter of 2012, i.e. April to June This is the 6th edition of the quarterly reports, which are unique to ilembe as we are the only district municipality to publish such a report. The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist Enterprise ilembe in driving its mandate, which is to drive economic development and promote trade and investment in the District of ilembe. This quarter sees the inclusion of updated annual data for 2011 which was released by Quantec in the first week of August The updated data shows that ilembe has grown by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, with the tertiary sector showing the most significant growth. Manufacturing has been taken over by finance, insurance, real estate and business services as the highest contributor to GDP. The unemployment rate has reduced in 2011 to 21.3%, and ilembe has managed to attract 4% more highly skilled workers than the previous year. See further updated annual stats from page 41 onwards. All the regular quarterly statistics are also included from page 15. It is positive to see that while both the BER and SACCI business confidence indices are down this quarter, the ilembe BCI is up to 6.8 points. There has been growth this quarter in the number of building plans submitted and approved, and vehicle sales also continue to show growth. While passenger movement through KSIA is down year on year, volumes of cargo handled at Richards Bay and Durban Ports shows consistent year on year growth. Enterprise ilembe has been busy this quarter. We have created 99 new jobs in agriculture this quarter, adding to the total of 674 jobs in agriculture created to date. Moringa tree plantations that will supply a bio-diesel manufacturing plant have been completed and the building of ilembe s first winery is underway. See more news and updates on projects in the News and Enterprise Ilembe Update sections below. Finally, we are excited to announce that EI has gone live with its Twitter and Facebook pages like our Facebook page by searching for us, or simply following this link: Page 2

3 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Table of Contents Foreword... 2 Summary of Key Indicators... 6 Overview of the ilembe District Economy... 8 Latest News and Developments within ilembe Enterprise ilembe Update (Q2 2012) Section One: ilembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Quarterly Data) Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 2, Business Confidence Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza Transport Trends Employment Indices for South Africa Enterprise ilembe Business Expansion & Retention Survey Section Two: ilembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Base Data) Demographic Profile Socio-Economic Indicators (2010) Employment Indicators The Informal Economy Production, Expenditure and Investment ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS A1.1 Population and Households A1.2 Racial Profile A1.3 HIV and AIDS A1.4 Gender Profile A1.5 Age Profile A1.6 Energy used for Lighting (2010) Page 3

4 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 A1.7 Type of Toilet (2010) A1.8 Water (2010) A1.9 Type of Dwelling (2010) A1.10 Education Level (2010) A1.11 Employment and Unemployment A1.12 Employment by type and skill level A1.13 Employment by Industry A1.14 Gross Geographic Product by Industry A1.16 Expenditure by Category A1.17 Expenditure by sub-category A1.18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type A1.19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry A1.20 Building Plans KwaDukuza A1.21 New Service Connections KwaDukuza A1.22 Airport Passenger Movements A1.23 Port Movements LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 2 Racial Profile for Graph 3 Gender Profile Graph 4 Age Distribution for Graph 5 HIV Positive and AIDS deaths (2011) Graph 6 Energy used for lighting (2010) Graph 7 Type of Toilet Graph 8 Source of Water in Graph 9 Type of Dwelling in Graph 10 Employment Status in Graph 11: Employment by Sector for ilembe, Graph 12: Formal Employment by Skill Level in Graph 13: Formal and Informal Employment in Page 4

5 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 14 Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors Graph 15 Distribution of Expenditure in Graph 16 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, Graph 17: Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Summary of Key Economic Indicators... 6 Table 2: Population and Households (2011) Table 3 Higher estimate of ilembe s population based on StatsSA information Table 4 Unemployment rate, Table 5 Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza Page 5

6 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 SUMMARY OF KEY INDICATORS The table below contains a summary of the key indicators for ilembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2011, and the district indicators for 2010 for comparative purposes. Table 1: Summary of Key Economic Indicators Key Indicator ilembe KwaZulu-Natal Population Households Race (%) African 90.48% 90.71% 85.64% Coloured 0.46% 0.47% 1.41% Asian 6.91% 6.67% 8.34% White 2.15% 2.15% 4.61% Gender (%) Male 48.35% 47.84% 47.69% Female 51.65% 52.16% 52.31% Age (%) 0-14 years 33.19% 33.64% 33.84% years 31.67% 31.07% 30.42% years 21.49% 21.71% 22.57% years 9.11% 9.01% 8.75% over 65 years 4.53% 4.57% 4.42% HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.82% 16.42% 15.68% Employment (number) Type of Employment (%) Aids Deaths 1.27% 1.26% 1.20% Employed (Formal and informal ) Unemployed Not economically active Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.39% 21.3% 21.57% Formal 78.32% 76.81% 76.98% Informal 21.68% 23.19% 23.02% Skill (%) Highly Skilled 11.32% 15.34% 18.07% Employment by Industry (%) Skilled 40.50% 39.00% 43.03% Semi and Unskilled 48.18% 45.67% 38.89% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.52% 10.16% 4.86% Mining and quarrying 0.52% 0.63% 0.80% Manufacturing 16.79% 16.47% 13.19% Electricity, gas and water 0.11% 0.11% 0.29% Construction 6.44% 6.33% 6.31% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and 21.98% 21.48% 21.73% Page 6

7 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Key Indicator ilembe KwaZulu-Natal Gross Value Added by Industry (%) accommodation Transport, storage and communication 3.26% 3.17% 5.59% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 13.58% 13.28% 14.73% Community, social and personal services 17.19% 16.65% 16.59% General government 10.61% 11.73% 15.92% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.84% 4.47% 4.47% Mining and quarrying 0.83% 2.14% 2.14% Manufacturing 29.17% 18.18% 18.18% Electricity, gas and water 0.93% 3.00% 3.00% Construction 2.83% 4.21% 4.21% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 14.83% 15.91% 15.91% Transport, storage and communication 7.21% 12.27% 12.27% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 19.85% 18.37% 18.37% Community, social and personal services 5.08% 7.12% 7.12% General government 9.43% 14.32% 14.32% Expenditure (%) Durable Goods 10.08% 7.90% 7.79% Domestic Fixed Investment (%) Semi-Durable Goods 13.00% 9.18% 9.09% Non-Durable Goods 36.02% 41.75% 40.80% Services 40.90% 41.16% 42.33% Buildings and construction works 32.57% 38.84% 45.24% Machinery and other equipment 49.22% 48.27% 39.45% Transport equipment 16.64% 11.49% 13.88% Transfer costs 1.58% 1.40% 1.42% Source: Quantec Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Page 7

8 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 OVERVIEW OF THE ILEMBE DISTRICT ECONOMY The ilembe District is situated on the east coast of South Africa, in the KwaZulu-Natal Province. ilembe is one of the 11 district municipalities of the KwaZulu-Natal province and is also the smallest District in the province, with a total population of approximately The District covers approximately 3260 square kilometres and is divided into four local municipalities. The four municipalities are: Ndwedwe Mandeni KwaDukuza Maphumulo ilembe is located between two of Africa s busiest ports, Durban and Richards Bay, on the primary economic development corridor in the province, and is therefore well positioned not only to local, but also international markets. The recent development of King Shaka International Airport and the Dube Trade Port just a few kilometres from the southern border of ilembe has magnified what was already a prime investment destination. Despite its strategic location, ilembe faces numerous economic challenges such as the high levels of poverty in the rural inland areas, which contrasts with rapid development along its coastal regions. The District has been proactive in developing Enterprise ilembe, a broad based institution Page 8

9 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 aimed at facilitating local economic development, in response to its challenges of high rates of unemployment and correspondingly high levels of poverty. Page 9

10 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 LATEST NEWS AND DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN ILEMBE King Shaka Tourism Route The King Shaka Tourism Route draft report has been completed and a preview is given here. The report was developed through extensive stakeholder consultation and existing products and routes were incorporated. It was recommended that each road and product falls under the Route, which follows the main roads of the District, and has gateway entrance points at the south in Ballito, the north along the R102 near Amathikhulu, and the west along the R102 toward Maphumulo. Five Sub Routes, all of which will fall under the District Route brand, were recommended. They are listed and described below: SUB ROUTE NAME Footsteps Shaka Brave Way Birder s Paradise of North Coast Meander (developed by Celia Tabb) Warrior Walk (developed by ubuhle Belembe Tour Operators) SUB ROUTE LOCATION This sub route will begin in KwaDukuza, and branch west along the R74, incorporating the King Shaka Visitors Centre. It will also branch north onto the R102 from KwaDukuza, along the R102 with the proposed King Shaka Statue in Mandeni as well as the Ultimatum Tree as key point in the north, ending at the P415 in Mandeni in the north. It is proposed that another sub route begin in Ballito, and branch off along Holla Trials, and into Ndwedwe. This route is aimed at the adventure lover, and therefore includes surfing, micro lighting, and other adventurous activities. This route begins in the north at Amathikhulu, along the R102, south to Groutville, branching off to birding products at Glendhow, Zinkwazi, the Tugela Mouth, and the Amatikhulu Game Reserve. The route also stretches west to include the Tugela Loop in Maphumulo. This is an existing route and has an important role to play, being at the southern gateway entrance. It currently runs from outside the District in the south and ends at Tinley Manor, as well as along the P467 in the north. It starts at the Amathikulu Nature Reserve and follows the coastline, stopping over at community owned tented camps along the route and ending at the one of the prestigious hotels or resorts in Ballito. DESCRIPTION It is suggested that the route builds on the existing King Shaka Heritage Route and its heritage sites. This route will include the waterfall in Ndwedwe s Nsuze area, as well as sites where mineral deposits have been discovered and provide opportunity for tourism development. This route will incorporate birding found in Mandeni and Maphumulo Municipalities. This route is aimed at birding-niche tourists (twitchers) and incorporates the natural beauty of the District s hinterland. It is proposed that this route falls under the broader District Route, running further to Groutville in the north. It is proposed that this route remains branded as the North Coast Meander, as an individual product, but under the umbrella brand of the District Route. The ilembe Warrior Walk (Bhaduza ne Hawed) is a fully escorted 6 day walk/ hike that is steeped in local cultural experiences. This route is best experienced through tour operators. It is proposed that this route remains branded as the Warrior Walk, as an individual product, but under the umbrella brand of the District Route. In order to unlock the Route, additional products (some of which were identified as being priority), as well as 3 infrastructural requirements were identified. The nine priority projects are listed below: Hot Ballito Campaign

11 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 King Shaka Heritage Route Rehabilitation of Ngwenya Nature Reserve Development of Adventure Hub along Tugela River Sugar Rush Adventure Centre Nsuze Waterfall The Groutville Zulu Village The Fraser s Zulu Village Umhlali Village Infrastructural requirements, as listed below have been recommended at specific points and roads throughout the Route, these include: Information Centres Upgrades Signage Upgrades Road Upgrades The route plan is still in draft format and is in the process of being reviewed by Enterprise ilembe. The final report will be released soon and will be available from EI. Enterprise ilembe on Facebook and Twitter Ei has gone live with its Facebook and Twitter pages; within 24 hours the Facebook page received over 40 likes increasing to 182 over a period of a few weeks. Please search Enterprise ilembe and like the page. Or click on the following link: or Follow us on Twitter: Mr. Price Pro a great success Ballito s Willards beach proved, yet again, to be the perfect and ever-obliging host of this year s Mr Price Pro With gorgeous weather for the majority of the week, the event saw a record number of beach-goers flock to the North Coast beaches with an excess of people coming through the gates over the seven days 1. The image to the left shows the Mens Runner-up, Nathaniel Curran (USA), and The Mens Champion, Glenn Hall (Ireland) 2. The Entrepreneur is back! Last year s popular Entrepreneur Competition is back and, this year, with a new and improved programme that has had the KwaZulu-Natal north coast s budding businessmen and women clamouring to enter. The competition is a joint venture between the ilembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (ICCIT), 1 Kirsten Heilgendorff, 2 Image: Ryan Janssens, Page 11

12 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 African Bank and Enterprise ilembe. It ran for the first time in 2011 and proved to be an effective vehicle for driving enterprise development opportunities, creating jobs and stimulating economic growth in the area. Over 100 entries have been received this year and the panel of experts (mentors) are in the process of scoring the entries. Thirty contestants will be chosen and receive eight weeks of free training and mentorship every Saturday from August 25. During this time they will put together a comprehensive business plan. The top ten business plans will be selected and presented to a panel of judges known as the Eagle s Nest on October 25. Besides funding, winners will also receive 12 months of business support from ICCIT and its mentors. For more information see Upcoming Events Dolphin Coast Striders Ultra Marathon 02 September This event includes a 50 km, 21 km and 10 km run and a 5 km fun run. For more information and to enter online visit: Page 12

13 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Enterprise ilembe Update (Q2 2012) Enterprise ilembe is the Economic Development Agency for the ilembe District responsible for Trade & Investment Promotion and Economic Development in the region. Since their inception, the agency has been responsible for an enormous amount of development and promotion within the district which has resulted in real infrastructure and employment creation. Some examples of this development include: Agricultural Projects: Enterprise ilembe has been prolific in their initiation of diverse and unique agricultural projects. These projects have created 674 jobs thus far. These include: Agri-processing hubs: This project involves the establishment of 8 hydroponic (tunnel) farms in the four local municipalities. Over R17 million has been invested into this project to date, 140 jobs created, and profits are already being reaped through the sale of high quality fruit and vegetables harvested. Open Farms: This project involves supporting community-based co-operatives to establish viable agricultural gardens which produce vegetables such as cabbage, butternut, potatoes, onions, etc. for both community needs and for sale in the market as processed products. Over 500 jobs have been retained through co-operatives thus far. The total number of farms supported this past year is eighteen. Vineyards: ILembe Vineyard projects involves the establishment of a primary Villard Blanc crop that will be grown as a catalyst to the establishment of a wine industry in the district. This involves the going of grapes within the Municipalities that will be used in the winery to produce wine and brandy, table grapes and fruit juice. Thus far, 50 direct jobs have been created across the 10.1 hectres of vineyards that have been planted, and R5.5 million has been invested. Moringa Tree Plantations: Phase 2 of the ilembe Bio Diesel Project is the Moringa Tree plantations Project. The purpose of this project is to facilitate a process whereby small growers or communities with land are able to participate in a district wide programme by planting and supplying Moringa to a centralised biodiesel manufacturing plant. Thus far, almost R3 million has been invested and 94 jobs have been created between four co-operatives. Tourism Projects: Tourism is an important sector for ilembe and a lot of work is being done to ensure that the sector is diversified and includes opportunities for SMMEs. Page 13

14 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Nonoti Mass Beach Resort: This is an exciting new tourism project planned for the Nonoti River Mouth in KwaDukuza which will uplift the currently underdeveloped area of Nonoti and compliment the planned Blythdale Coastal Resort. The resort will be an exhibition of the Zulu Culture by using soft ethnic colours and materials, and including a 5-star tented camp! The Area Based Plan, Environmental Plan and Precinct Plan are currently underway. Winery: The vineyards mentioned above will supply grapes to a winery that will be established on a 10 hectare parcel of land. Building of the winery has commenced at Collisheen Estate and to date R3.5million has been invested and 12 direct jobs have been created. King Shaka Tourism Route: The draft route report has been completed and is awaiting approval. Arts and Crafts Projects: Crafters are located across the district; the ilembe Craft Hub was established at the Sangweni Tourism Centre where local product being are being sourced and sold. The centre averages R6 000 sales per month (over R sales to date). Ei was presented with an opportunity to use the PSA exhibition at Gateway on 27 & 28 May 2012 and local crafters were given the opportunity to exhibit their wares at the exhibition under the guidance of our Arts & Crafts Officer. The recycled tin products were a big hit. Manufacturing Projects: Bio-diesel Manufacturing: This project aims to establish a bio diesel processing plant, delivering vehicle-grade diesel from used oil (initially) and ultimately from Moringa seed (as mentioned above). R7.4 million rand has already been invested into the plant which is situated in Mandeni and 10 jobs have been created. The EIA has been approved, awaiting the Manufacturing Waste Licence. Informal market and ilembe pack house: The feasibility study has been completed and is under review. The Mambulu Titanium Project: Mambulo is located in the Maphumulo. MINTEK investigated and confirmed that titanium deposits had been found in this area however a further geotechnical study is required to verify the amount of titanium deposits and sustainability thereof. Marketing and Communications: Enterprise ilembe are establishing and maintaining partnerships with various stakeholders and institutions in order to further the mandate of the agency. Some of the recent initiatives include the RPMASA & Proudly South African Workshop, Indaba 2012, the Fashion Industry Networking Session. In addition a weekly column has been negotiated and secured for the Agency in the North Coast Courier, Eyethu and Stanger Weekly, the column is used to communicate the various Page 14

15 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 programmes and activities in addition to profiling the staff members. Enterprise ilembe has also has gone live with its Facebook and Twitter pages. For more information on these projects and a large amount of potential investment opportunities visit Key Findings: Enterprise ilembe Update Agricultural projects (agri-processing hubs, vineyards, open farms, moringa planting) have created 674 jobs to date 99 of which were in quarter ; Moringa tree plantations to supply the biodiesel processing plant have been established, almost R3million has been invested and 94 jobs have been created in 4 co-operatives; Villard blanc vineyards have been planted and building of the winery has commenced; The King Shaka Tourism Route draft report has been completed; Ei has gone live with its Facebook and Twitter pages. Page 15

16 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 SECTION ONE: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (QUARTERLY DATA) Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 2, 2012 Quarter 2 has seen the South African economy move from coasting to stagnating, as the majority of indicators show declining growth as 2012 progresses. The national BER Business Confidence Index fell by 11 points to 41 (4.1); and the SACCI BCI was 94.9 points in June which is historically very low, albeit up from May s all-time low of 92.8 points. The FNB property index shows that while house price growth on a year-on-year basis is still at a relatively healthy level of 8.3%, it is believed that the above-8% levels of recent months reflects the peak in the recent resurgence in house price growth which originated during the summer months, and that a broad slowing is once more the order of the day in the near term. John Loos from FNB anticipates a year-on-year property price growth rate of around 5-6% by year end. Furthermore, according to Adcorp, employment in South Africa fell sharply at an annualised rate of 2.0% in June, following an even higher decline in May of 3.1%. Job losses in June amounted to , bringing the total job losses for the past two months to However, Stassa labour force survey showed that employment increased by 0,2% or between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012 and unemployment declined by persons, while the inactive population increased by While this is more positive than the Adcorp index, it is still a rather poor performance on the whole. The disparity is likely due to the fact that the majority of jobs, according to Statssa were recorded in the public sector which is not impact the Adcorp index. KZN is still fairing relatively well, largely due to the fact that it is not affected as much as the inland areas of SA by the mining sector which is performing particularly poorly. This is according to Mike Schussler s KZN business barometer 3. The KZN barometer for May (released April) shows that manufacturing experienced its lowest growth in 8 months (0.8%); supported by evidence of declining exports, which coupled with a struggling financial, property and business services index, will ultimately, have a negative impact on the KZN economy. Currently, the local economy is being kept afloat by consumer spending and, particularly in KZN, parastatal spending. As usual, however, ilembe seems to still be coasting, as the ilembe business confidence index was up this quarter to a high 6.8 points. Other positive indicators include residential building, car sales and port 3 Page 16

17 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 movement. Negative indicators were seen in tourism, commercial and industrial building, and passenger movement through KSIA. Business Confidence The business confidence section is made up of the ilembe BCI based on surveys, the national BER BCI which is also based on surveys, the national SACCI BCI which is based on market analysis. In quarter two of 2012, business confidence for ilembe is up again by 1 percentage points to 6.8; the BER BCI fell by 11 points to a level of 41 in the second quarter, and the SACCI BCI is low at The decline in business confidence does not bode well for the 2nd half of 2012, however, it seems that ilembe remains largely unscathed by the national negative sentiment for now. Enterprise ilembe Business Survey Both the business and tourism surveys are conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to businesses that are registered with the ilembe Business Chamber, and businesses on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on durban@urban-econ.com if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). There are no criteria for businesses to take part in the business survey (other than they must be located in ilembe). Business Confidence Business confidence is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing business conditions. The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 2 of 2012 is 6.8 which indicates that 68% of respondents are satisfied with the business conditions. This is high when compared with the national BER/RMB BCI which was 4.1 in Quarter 2. The index is up by 1 percentage point from last quarter. Page 17

18 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Prevailing Business Conditions Businesses were asked to indicate movement (increase, decrease, no change) in certain indicators within their business in quarter 2, 2012 compared with quarter 1, The following graph shows that most indicators were unchanged in quarter 2, however, the graph indicates more negative responses than in the previous quarter. Demand for goods has particularly slowed. This is reflected in the tourism survey too where it is felt that people are quite conscious of their spending and are not parting with their money easily. The largest constraints to business growth at the moment are the cost of rates and property, poor municipal services, and the cost of labour. Page 18

19 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Future Expectations Businesses were asked to estimate movement in indicators within their business in the next quarter (3) in comparison to the current quarter (2). The high business confidence is reflected in the fact that few businesses expect conditions to worsen in the next quarter (around 10%), with the majority expecting conditions to remain the same. However, almost 20% of businesses expect the number of staff employed to decrease next quarter. Business Profiles The majority of businesses this quarter are in the Tourism, Catering and Accommodation (21%), construction (19%) and manufacturing (14%) industries. 75% of respondents are part of the ilembe Business Chamber. The graphs below describe the number of full time staff, average annual turnover and location of businesses who responded. The majority of businesses (33%) have less than 5 staff members, with 25% having staff. The majority of businesses turn over between R and R2 million (34%) and R2 million to R10 million (34%) annually. This profile suggests that the majority of respondents are small businesses who reside in greater Ballito. Page 19

20 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 SACCI Business Confidence Index SACCI s Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined by 0.8 index points to 94.9 by the end of Q2 2012, improved however from the May 2012 low of 92.8 index points. The May 2012 reading is the worst since January This decline reflects a volatile and precarious economic recovery in the global economy and at home. There were notable positive improvements in the sub-indices in June 2012 indicating an overall positive trajectory. Where only two of the thirteen sub-indices of the BCI were positive m/m in May, eight sub-indices turned positive with one remaining unaffected in June Source: South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry Business Confidence Index (June 2012) Page 20

21 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 The BER/RMB Business Confidence Index After a marked increase in Q from the back drop of Q4 2011, the RMB/BER BCI fell by 11 points to a level of 41 in the second quarter. Business confidence declined in four of the five sectors making up the RMB/BER BCI. Confidence fell sharply in the retail trade and manufacturing sectors. In the case of building contractors, almost the entire first quarter improvement in sentiment was reversed in the second quarter. The sharp drop in business confidence does not bode well for prospective private sector investment in particular and economic growth in general during the second half of Source: Key Findings: Business Confidence Business confidence for ilembe is up this quarter to 6.8 from 6.7 in the previous quarter; The national BER BCI fell by 11 points to 41 (4.1); and The SACCI BCI is down in June to 94.9 points which his historically very low, albeit up from May s all-time low of Page 21

22 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Page 22

23 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza The following section looks at the total area of building plans approved, submitted and completed; the number of new water connection made; and the number of new single phase and triple phase electricity connections made over the last year in KwaDukuza. KwaDukuza has been chosen because it represents the majority of activity in ilembe. Building Plans, KwaDukuza The graph below shows the total value (millions of rand) of building plans (including additions, alterations and deviations) approved, submitted and completed since January The total value of building plans approved in Quarter 2 was R496 million and the total value submitted was R471. These values are up from the previous quarter and almost reach levels experienced in Q The total value of building completed was R113 million which is the lowest since the beginning of Source: KwaDukuza, info for July and September not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations The table below gives a breakdown of the total area (m 2 ) of approvals, submissions and completions this year. The highest area of approved, submitted and completed plans is for residential building, with relatively smaller spikes in commercial and industrial building. After months of no industrial premises being built, a 2838m 2 factory and warehouse was completed in June and a 4511m 2 warehouse was approved in the same month. Plans for a bakery and new service stations were submitted in April accounting for a spike in commercial plans submitted, and the bakery of m 2 was approved in June. Residential building has remained consistent. Page 23

24 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Table: Total area (m 2 ) of Residential, Commercial and Industrial Building Plans for KwaDukuza APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Resid Comm Indust Total* Resid Comm Indust Total* Reside Comm Indust Total* ential ercial rial ential ercial rial ntial ercial rial Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: KwaDukuza, info for July and September not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations New water connections, KwaDukuza The graph below describes the number of new water connections made in KwaDukuza since the beginning of The number of water connections in Q was 113, down by 11% from 127 in Q1. The number of water connections made has been low in general over the previous four quarters in comparison to 2010 and early 2011 which suggests a slowdown in construction of residents, commercial and industrial premises. Page 24

25 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Source: KwaDukuza New electricity connections, KwaDukuza The graphs show the number of new single and three phase electricity connections for KwaDukuza. The number of new single phase connections represents the number of new small residential (3 bedroom house) and low cost housing (including prepaid connections). The graph shows a substantial decrease in single phase connections between quarter and quarter Connections have decreased from 725 to 285 over this time, however this is still high and shows that fairly large residential building projects are taking place. The number of three phase connections represents larger, upmarket urban houses (with air conditioning etc.). Three phase connections are up from 8 connections to 15 connections in this quarter. The number of maximum demand connections (commercial and industrial buildings) is zero for the 6 th month in a row. Source: KwaDukuza Page 25

26 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Key Findings: Building Plans and new service connections, KwaDukuza While the value of plans submitted and approved spiked in quarter 2, the value of completions is the lowest it has been since Jan 2010; Residential building has been consistent in quarter 2 with previous quarters, however, commercial and industrial approvals and completions both spiked this quarter, albeit with only 2 plans in each category. Water connections have decreased by 11% this quarter to 113, and remain consistently low relative to 2010 and early The number of single phase electricity connection is down from the previous quarter but continues to be high at 285 connections. There were 15 three phase connections and no maximum demand connections for the 6 th month in a row. All evidence points to consistent residential building, especially of small houses (mostly government issue), but very low commercial and industrial building. Page 26

27 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Transport Trends This section looks at trends in road vehicles, airport trends and port movements within ilembe, the province and nationally. Vehicle Registrations The figure below details the quarter-to-quarter new additional vehicle registrations per licencing district, while the table below shows the total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district. This is a good reflection on sales and economic activity in these areas. New vehicle registrations in Stanger are still strongly positive in Q (638), although slightly less than Q (750). Ndwedwe has the least amount of registered vehicles in the area (422) and Maphumulo (701), while almost double that of Ndwedwe, still falls far shy of Stanger which has over vehicle registrations. Registrations in Ndwedwe have been growing at an average quarterly growth of 4.42% over the previous year this translates to an increase of 60 vehicles over the past year. Stanger is also showing good growth of 1.3% (an increase of 1991 vehicles over the past year). Registrations at Maphumulo have decreased over the last year, with a decrease of 14 vehicles in one year. This is indicative of unroadworthy vehicles or vehicles sold and not replaced. Source: and Urban-Econ Page 27

28 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Table: Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district Mapumulo Total Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>350 0kg,not to draw) Heavy Load Vehicle (GVM>350 0kg,equp to draw) Light Load Vehicle (GVM 3500kg or less) Heavy passenger mv (12 or more persons) Light passenger MV(less than 12 persons) Minibus Motorcycle /Motor tricycle/qu adrucycle Special Vehicle Q Q Q Q Q Q Ndwedwe Q Q Q Q Q Q Stanger Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Unknown Page 28

29 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Airport Passenger Movement King Shaka International Airport lies on the North Coast and is only approximately 13km from Ballito and therefore has a direct impact on the local economy. The graph below describes the number of passengers per quarter for each of the international airports. King Shaka International experiences the least passenger traffic at an average of passengers per month out of the three international airports. Passenger numbers have dropped this quarter from 1,199 million to 1,190 million passengers (0.7%). Cape Town international airport s passenger numbers were also down this quarter, while OR Tambo remained constant. One would hope that passenger numbers would be increasing given the new KSIA, but over the previous year they have decreased by 0.85% while Cape Town and JHB have seen modest growth. Hopefully new flights to major African destinations will grow passenger numbers at KSIA. Source: Port Movements Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa. This is economically significant for ilembe because ilembe is situated between these two ports and therefore, the activity of these two ports is a good gage of economic activity in the area in general. The graph below describes the trend in the amount of cargo handled at each of these ports. It is clear that the amount of cargo handled at RB has declined for the second quarter in a row, while the amount of cargo handled at Durban Port has increased substantially this quarter to million metric tonnes. Both ports are experiencing higher numbers of cargo movement than this quarter in 2011.

30 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Source: PORTS & SHIPS The table below gives comparative figures for quarter 2, The figures in red show a decrease from the previous quarter and the figures in green show an increase. This quarter Richards Bay has received less vessels than the previous quarter, while Durban has received a higher number than the previous quarter. South Africa, overall is showing positive growth. The volumes in general are showing good year on year growth. Table: Port movements Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, thousands)* Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels Richards Bay Q Q Q Q Q Q Durban Q Q Q Q Q Q South Africa Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: PORTS & SHIPS *As is customary the figures shown in this table reflect an adjustment on the overall tonnage to include containers by weight for which PORTS & SHIPS estimates an adjustment of 13,5 tonnes per TEU to reflect tonnages. This figure is on the conservative Page 30

31 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 side with 14 tonnes or even more perhaps being a more realistic figure, particularly in view of the increasing quantity of bulk cargo which is now being handled in containers. Key Findings: Transport Trends Vehicle numbers continue to grow in Stanger and Ndwedwe, but are sluggish in Maphumulo where car registrations are declining quarter on quarter. Passenger movement through KSIA dropped this quarter again by 0.7% and declined year on year by 0.85%. The amount of cargo handled at RB has declined for the second quarter in a row, while the amount of cargo handled at Durban Port has increased substantially this quarter to million metric tonnes. The volumes across SA, including Durban and RB, are showing good year on year growth. Page 31

32 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Tourism Trends This section discusses the results from the tourism quarterly survey conducted by Enterprise ilembe; and the number of visitors to the Sangweni Information Centre in Ballito this quarter. Tourism Survey The tourism confidence survey is conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and is run for approximately two weeks. s containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to tourism places of accommodation on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). Tourism Business Confidence Similarly to the business survey, business confidence for tourism in ilembe is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing tourism conditions. After increasingly steadily to 5.5 in Quarter , tourism business confidence is on the decline this quarter. It has decreased by 5 percentage points to 5 this quarter which means that exactly half of all tourism service providers are satisfied with the prevailing conditions. With quarter 3 being a quiet month for tourism, one would expect business confidence to decline below the 50% mark next quarter. Prevailing Business Conditions (Tourism) The graph below shows the trend for demand for tourism services over the previous year, where 1 equals the lowest demand and 5 equals the highest demand. It is clear that both the number of 4s and 5s (which represent high demand) have declined steadily from Q to Q This is partly seasonal but partly due to poor tourism conditions as one will see below when analysing occupancy trends. Conversely, the Page 32

33 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 number of 2s and 1s (representing low demand) has increased from last quarter. The majority of respondents (40%) say that the demand level for quarter 2 was medium. The graph below describes occupancy as compared to the previous quarter and the previous year. 46% of respondents say that occupancy rates have decreased this quarter when compared to the previous quarter, 31% say that they have stayed the same and only 23% say that they have increased. A higher percentage of respondents (56%) say that occupancy has decreased when compared to this time last year. This is the fourth quarter in a row where occupancy levels are perceived to be lower than the previous year which is a concerning trend. 46% of respondents say that occupancy has been between 20 and 40% this quarter, and 23% say that it has been between 41 and 60%. Page 33

34 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Future Expectations (Tourism) 23% of respondents expect bookings to increase over the next quarter (Q3 2012), down from 45% in the previous quarter. The majority (50%) expect bookings to stay the same, whereas 27% expect them to decrease. Number of tourists visiting Sangweni Tourism Information Centre, 2011 The number of people who make any type of query at the Sangweni Tourism Information Office in Ballito is recorded monthly and gives an indication of the number of new tourists visiting Ballito. This does not represent actual figures for the North Coast but gives a helpful indication of trends based on a segment of tourists in the North Coast. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased this quarter by 57% to 184 visitors, and the number of local visitors has decreased by 32% to 425 visitors. The graph shows a clear downward trend which supports the tourism survey results in the perception that tourism numbers are declining year on year. Page 34

35 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Source: Sangweni Tourism Information Centre Key Findings: Tourism Tourism confidence has declined for the first time in quarter 2 to 5, and future expectations show that most tourism service providers expect bookings to remain the same next quarter. Four the fourth quarter in a row the majority of service providers have stated that occupancy has been less than the same time the previous year which shows a constant decline in occupancy levels. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased this quarter by 57% to 184 visitors, and the number of local visitors has decreased by 32% to 425 visitors. The graph shows a clear downward trend which supports the tourism survey results in the perception that tourism numbers are declining year on year. Page 35

36 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Employment Indices for South Africa The following employment indices and indicators are drawn from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by StatsSA, and the Adcorp Employment Index which is released by Adcorp monthly. These are for South Africa and KZN as quarterly data is not available for ilembe as yet. Quarterly Labour Force Survey The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is a household-based sample survey conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). It collects data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 years and above who live in South Africa. Employment increased by 0,2% or between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012 and unemployment declined by persons, while the inactive population increased by A decrease in the number of unemployed persons, coupled with an increase in both employment and inactivity resulted in the decrease in the unemployment rate (down by 0,3 of a percentage point) to 24,9%. Between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012, formal sector employment increased by jobs while informal sector employment decreased by jobs. The growth in formal sector jobs was mainly driven by Community & social services ( ) industry. The biggest decrease in the unemployment rate was observed in Limpopo (1,7 percentage points), Mpumalanga (1,4 percentage points) and KwaZulu-Natal (0,7 of a percentage point). Page 36

37 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 2, 2012 Adcorp Employment Index Employment in South Africa fell sharply at an annualised rate of 2.0% in June, following an even higher decline in May of 3.1%. Job losses in June amounted to , bringing the total job losses for the past two months to Adcorp, the JSE-listed human capital management group, found that most sectors apart from wholesale and retail trade (+2.1%), all occupations except managers (+2.2%) and professionals (+3.3%) reported declines. All employment categories except the informal sector reported a decline. The sharpest declines were recorded in: Agriculture (- 12,7%); Transport (- 8.6%); Mining (-8.1%); Plant and equipment (-4.7%); and Construction (-4.7%) Adcorp s index of informal sector employment rose 0.2%, representing the 12th consecutive monthly improvement. Page 37

38 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Key Findings: Employment Employment increased by 0,2% or between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012 and unemployment declined by persons, while the inactive population increased by The growth in formal sector jobs was mainly driven by Community & social services ( ) industry. KZN experienced a 0.7% decline in the unemployment rate. According to Adcorp, employment in South Africa fell sharply at an annualised rate of 2.0% in June, following an even higher decline in May of 3.1%. Job losses in June amounted to , bringing the total job losses for the past two months to The hardest hit sectors were agriculture, transport and mining. Page 38

39 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Enterprise ilembe Business Expansion & Retention Survey The B, E&R survey was run by Enterprise ilembe in partnership with the ilembe Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism over June and July 2011 in Ballito. Funding was provided by the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC). The survey s intention was to capture what it is like to be in business in the Ballito area and record ideas, concerns, priorities and obstacles to economic growth. Only a selection of the report has been reproduced here. 61 businesses were surveyed, majority were in the Business Park area. Businesses surveyed covered a variety of activities; over 25% are in the finance, insurance, property or business services, 23% are in wholesale retail or motor trade while construction and building formed nearly 20% of the total. Almost all businesses are locally owned. 36% of businesses have been operating for 1-5 years, 31% for 6-10 years, 21% longer than 10years and 12% less than one year. customers are the main source of sales (41%), 31% focus on KZN, while 28% do business throughout South Africa. None see international customers as their primary target. 60% purchase the bulk of their supplies from within KZN and 22% from other parts of South Africa. Relatively few (17%) can find supplies locally. Majority of business (46%) have increased staff numbers of the last two years and plan to increase staff numbers over the next two years (64%). A large majority of the skills in demand are sales and marketing skills; as well as business and financial management skills. Page 39

40 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 The following graph describes the advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito (advantages in blue and disadvantages in purple). Graph: Advantages and disadvantages to locating business in Ballito Source: ilembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July 2011 Majority of business owners (74%) see quality of life as a key advantage to doing business in Ballito. Other advantages include the image of the area (67%), access to customers (51%) and the local market (41%). The most frequently mentioned disadvantage was the unreliability of electricity supply (49%). Other disadvantages include the lack of municipal support (43%), poor public transport (41%) and expensive rates and services (38%). Page 40

41 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph: Sales over two years Source: ilembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July 2011 The graph shows that 63% of businesses say that sales have increased over the last two years. 85% expect sales to increase which shows that business confidence in Ballito is good. 80% of businesses have not considered selling, moving or closing in the last two years which also shows high business confidence. Business opportunities lie in the fact that there are products in demand locally that are not produced locally such as electrical repairs, quality furniture, IT and computer maintenance, the services of mechanical engineering workshops, packaging, panel beaters, power tools, printing including size A0, general motor vehicle spares, speciality food, wholesale dry goods as well as bakery and supermarket supplies. The following products and services are not purchased locally for price reasons: wholesale cement, cool-drinks, chocolate, dairy products, fish and meat, paper and stationary. When asked what new businesses would succeed in Ballito, suggestions included: artists, authors, electronic traders, cinema, gym, laundry, printers, security equipment supplier and an arts and crafts heritage market in Umhlali, as well as businesses relating to above mentioned products. Restaurants and fast food outlets were mentioned several times. Page 41

42 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph: Main constraints to expansion Source: ilembe B,E&R Programme, Results of the Ballito Business Survey, July % of businesses consider the small size of the local market the main constraint to expansion. Other constraints include availability of finance (32%), too much competition and problems relating to the municipality (28%). These largely included the poor supply of electricity. Key Findings: Business Retention and Expansion Survey Majority of business owners (74%) see quality of life as a key advantage to doing business in Ballito. The most frequently mentioned disadvantage was the unreliability of electricity supply (49%). 43% of businesses consider the small size of the local market the main constraint to expansion. Business opportunities lie in the fact that there are products in demand locally that are not produced locally Page 42

43 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 SECTION TWO: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (BASE DATA) Most socio-economic data is not available on a quarterly basis at a District and Municipal level. This section comprises of the most recent annual economic intelligence and statistical analysis available for ilembe and its LMs. It is broken down into various sub-sections, which include a demographic profile; a socioeconomic profile; education, employment and skills; and economic activity. The majority of data is for 2011, however, the following indicators have not yet been updated and are for 2010 only: Education Data for all socio-economic indicators (this includes water, electricity, hygiene and type of dwelling) Demographic Profile Population and Households The ilembe District has experienced an average yearly growth rate of -0.21% in population since 2005, bringing the population total in 2011 to approximately 564,088 people. The total number of households in ilembe is 134,514. This figure has been declining by 0.34% over the previous five years. Table 2: Population and Households (2011) Population Households Number Average Yearly Number Average yearly Growth Rate Growth Rate ( ) ( ) ilembe % % Mandeni % % KwaDukuza % % Ndwedwe % % Maphumulo % % Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below shows the population trends for each of local municipalities since The graph shows that the total population and number of households have been declining in Ndwedwe and Maphumulo Municipalities, whereas the total population has been increasing in Mandeni and KwaDukuza Municipalities. This is consistent with provincial and national trends which indicate that an increasing proportion of the population previously housed in rural areas are migrating to urban areas in search of employment and other opportunities. This is expected given that KwaDukuza and Mandeni house much of the formal economic activity in the region. Page 43

44 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 1: Population trend for each of the local municipalities, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) It should be noted that, given that it has been 10years since the last census was conducted, population figures are a rough estimate. Figures released by stats SA show a higher estimate of population in ilembe. The following table represents this higher estimate. Table 3 Higher estimate of ilembe s population based on StatsSA information Municipal Area Census 1996 Census 2001 DWAF 2004 Census 2006 Backlog Study 2007 Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo ilembe Source: ilembe IDP 2011 Population Groups The graph below displays the split of the population of the district and local municipalities by population group. For the district and all local municipalities besides KwaDukuza, Africans comprise over 90% of the total population, with KwaDukuza having the largest Asian population (predominately Indian) of 18.3%. KwaDukuza also contributes the largest portion of Whites (5.3%) of which a large numbers reside in the urban area of Ballito. Maphumulo comprises the largest African population (99.9%). In terms of average yearly growth rates, Page 44

45 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 the Black and Asian populations declined slightly over the previous 5 years, whereas the coloured and white populations experienced a positive growth rate. Graph 1 Racial Profile for 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) Gender Profile The graph below displays the gender distribution of the district and local populations. The gender split is fairly equal for most of the municipalities besides Maphumulo, which comprises 44.3% of males and 55.7% of females. Graph 2 Gender Profile 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) Page 45

46 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Age Profile The graph below provides an indication of the age distribution within the district. From the graph it is clear that Maphumulo has a much greater percentage of the population under the age of 19 years than the rest of ilembe. 65% of ilembe is under 29 years old, just over 30% is between the ages of 30 and 65, and only 4.5% is over 65 years old. The composition has not changed significantly since 2010 and is standard for KwaZulu- Natal. Graph 3 Age Distribution for 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Education Profile (2010) As the table shows, 22% of all people in ilembe above the age of 25 years have no schooling. This is 3% higher than the rest of KZN. Only 12% have matric and 5% have some form of tertiary education. These percentages are both lower than the average for KZN. Percentage of people age 25+ with the following level of schooling ilembe KZN No Schooling 22% 18% Grade 12 12% 19% Tertiary 5% 7% Page 46

47 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 HIV/AIDS Deaths The final demographic indicator is that of HIV positive individuals and AIDS Deaths recorded. The graph below displays these trends. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). This is 1% higher than the average for the province. The number of HIV infections increased by 0.7% in Graph 4 HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) Key Findings: Demographic Profile Out-migration of residents from Ndwedwe and Maphumulo to areas with urban-centres such as KwaDukuza and Mandeni; The population and number of households have been decreasing on average 0.2% and 0.3% respectively over the previous 5 years. 34% of the population is under the age of 15 years, 62% of the ilembe population falls within the working age bracket (15 64 years), and only 5% is over the age of 65 years. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). Page 47

48 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Socio-Economic Indicators (2010) Data for 2011 for socio-economic indicators is not yet available. Four socio-economic indicators are assessed before moving onto an analysis of growth indicators. The indicators analysed below are used as a measure of growth of social infrastructure such electricity, access to water, type of housing and type of toilets. Energy used for lighting Electricity is the major source of energy for lighting in the district and both the Mandeni and KwaDukuza local municipalities, accounting for 63%, 78%, and 86% of total energy sources respectively. Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are however both lagging behind the district trend with only 28% and 35% of the population having access to electricity respectively, although growth trends indicate that Maphumulo has experienced a growth in electricity usage. These households are predominately using candles as their main source of energy. Graph 5 Energy used for lighting (2010) Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010) Type of toilet The type of toilet used is displayed in graph 6 below. The percentage of people using flush or chemical toilets is still relatively low for all municipalities, with an average of 28% for ilembe. This trend is higher for both Mandeni and KwaDukuza (35% and 39% respectively), with Ndwedwe only achieving a rate of 16% and Page 48

49 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Maphumulo a very low rate of 7%. The largest source of toilet facility for all municipalities are pit latrine toilets, with this accounting 70% in Maphumulo, and 58% for the entire district. Graph 6 Type of Toilet 2010 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010) Source of Water Graph 7 displays the distribution of access to water in ilembe. KwaDukuza has the highest occurrence of water within the dwelling of 28% of the population, with the district average of almost 17% of the population. Again, Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind with only 5% of their respective populations having access to water within their dwelling. A large portion of the district population (21%) still use a dam, river, stream or spring for water, with the largest contributing local municipalities being Ndwedwe (38%) and Maphumulo (57%). Page 49

50 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 7 Source of Water in 2010 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010) Type of Dwelling The graph below displays the final socio-economic indicator, namely the type of dwelling occupied by the respective populations. 38% of the district population live in a brick structure on a separate stand, i.e. a formal house structure. The largest contributor to this is KwaDukuza (50% of the population) and Mandeni (42% of the population), with Ndwedwe and Maphumulo only contributing 26% and 21% respectively. About 32% of the district population lived in a traditional dwelling made from traditional materials, of which Ndwedwe and Maphumulo were the largest contributing populations (49.7% and 69.3% respectively). About 9% of the ilembe population lived in an informal dwelling or shack, with contribution from 15.1% of the Mandeni population, and 12.4% of the KwaDukuza population. This could be explained by the negative population growth rates for Ndwedwe and Maphumulo, where people have moved into informal dwellings in KwaDukuza and Mandeni in search of employment. Page 50

51 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 8 Type of Dwelling in 2010 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2010) Key Findings: Socio-Economic Indicators (2010) Ndwedwe and Maphumulo are lagging behind the district with regards access to electricity; Less than 28% of the district population have access to a flush or chemical toilet; Less than 17% of households have access to water inside their dwelling; Page 51

52 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Employment Indicators The graph below provides a picture of the current employment environment in the district and local municipalities. The majority of the working age population and employment opportunities exist in KwaDukuza LM. Unfortunately, in 2011 the number employed people decreased by 0.5%, the number of unemployed people increased by 4.3% and the number of not economically active people increased by 3.3%. It seems that employment in ilembe is still being negatively impacted by the global economic downturn, whereas the rest of KZN, on average, has shown increases in employment, and decreases in unemployment. Graph 9 Employment Status in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The table below shows the unemployment rates for ilembe and the local municipalities. ilembe has an unemployment rate of 21.3% which is average for the province and the country, however, the labour force participation rate is low at 37% (compared to 42% for KZN) which suggest a high number of economically inactive persons contributing to a lower unemployment rate. KwaDukuza has the lowest unemployment rate at 14% and Ndwedwe has the highest unemployment rate at 31%. Page 52

53 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Table 4 Unemployment rate, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below shows the percentage contribution of employment by industry for ilembe and each of the LMs. The majority of employment in ilembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%). The majority of employment in Ndwedwe is in agriculture, the majority of employment in Mandeni is in manufacturing, employment in Maphumulo is being sustained by government employment, and employment in KwaDukuza is most diversified across all sectors. Page 53

54 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 2: Employment contribution by industry and local municipality, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below shows the 10 year employment trend for ilembe. Agriculture has gone from the sector that employs the most people, to the sector that employs the 6 th most people. Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by and jobs respectively. The majority of job gains over the previous 5 years were in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors and the government and community services sectors. Page 54

55 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 10: Employment by Sector for ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The graph below displays the breakdown of formal employment into the three skills categories. Between 14% and 16% of the formally employed in all municipalities are highly skilled, with the exception of Maphumulo which has 24% of its employment as highly skilled. This increase is mainly in government services, but also transport and communications. The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in ilembe has increased by 4% over the previous year, however, it is still lower than the average for KZN of 18%. Just over 39% of the formally employed district population are skilled persons, and 45.7% are semi and unskilled. Page 55

56 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 11: Formal Employment by Skill Level in 2011 Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The Informal Economy South Africa s informal sector is the unofficial part of the economy whereby many people are forced to eke out a meagre economic existence through lack of formal job opportunities. This sector of the economy, which evades income taxes and circumvents labour laws, now represents over 30% of SA S potential workforce and is the fastest growing sector. The graph below displays the distribution of formal and informally employed persons. In ilembe, about 23% of the working age population are informally employed, while approximately 77% are formally employed. Within the district, all the local municipalities display a similar trend, however with only 16% informal employment displayed in Maphumulo. Page 56

57 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 12: Formal and Informal Employment in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012) The informal economy in ilembe is heterogenic, ranging from average street traders and shebeen owners to child carers and domestic workers. It is often characterised by its flexibility, creativity, resilience to absorb shocks, and its ability to adapt to changing external environments. The largest informal economy exists in KwaDukuza. The following table describes the type of informal activities that occur in KwaDukuza and their estimated size. Table 5 Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza Types of informal Activities Estimated Number Taxi and Minibus operators 200 Tourism (B&B, Tour guides) 10 Informal Builders 500 Domestic Workers Agriculture (urban subsistence) 60 Light industries (tailors, Dressmakers and hatters, Embroiderers and related workers, plumbers, welders) 2000 Informal technicians (shoe, watch, car, furniture, etc. repairers ) 2000 Street traders Numbers Barbers and Hairdressers 1000 Page 57

58 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Fruit sellers 2000 Craft and bead sellers 100 Cardboard collectors 40 Live chicken sellers 50 Millie cookers 50 Newspaper vendors 5 Second hand clothes dealers 20 Tavern and shebeen operators 2000 Spaza shop owners 2000 Street food vendors 1000 Traditional Medicine practitioners and Muthi traders 150 Mr. Phone dealers 50 Source: KwaDukuza Business Development Unit, Urban-Econ Interviews Key Findings: Employment Indicators In KwaDukuza in 2011 the number employed people decreased by 0.5%, the number of unemployed people increased by 4.3% and the number of not economically active people increased by 3.3%. It seems that employment in ilembe is still being negatively impacted by the global economic downturn, whereas the rest of KZN, on average, has shown increases in employment, and decreases in unemployment; ilembe has an unemployment rate of 21.3% which is average for the province and the country, however, the labour force participation rate is low at 37% (compared to 42% for KZN); The majority of employment in ilembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%); Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by and jobs respectively; The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in ilembe has increased by 4% over the previous year. Page 58

59 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Production, Expenditure and Investment This section covers a variety of economic indicators and provides an understanding of the economic status of ilembe, as well as its leading and lagging industries. Gross Geographic Product In 2011 ilembe s GVA (an indicator of gross geographic produce) was R billion. This accounts for 3.8% of KZN s GGP making ilembe the 7 th highest contributor to KZN s GDP out of 11 districts and one metro. ilembe s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years. The majority of growth is being experienced in the tertiary sector which grew by almost 5% in The secondary sector grew by 0.6%, while the primary sector contracted by 0.8%. Graph 3: GVA growth trend by 3 sectors, ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the contribution of each industry to total GGP in For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, contributing 18.4% to total GGP. This sector accounts for 19% of the Mandeni economy, 30% of the KwaDukuza economy, and 18% of the Ndwedwe economy, with manufacturing in Maphumulo only contributing 9%. The finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector has grown by 5.5% over the previous 5 years, despite the recession. Manufacturing is the next highest contributor, contributing 18.2% to total GGP in the district. Manufacturing accounts for 23% of Mandeni s economy, 30% of KwaDukuza s economy, 23% of Ndwedwe s economy and Page 59

60 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter % of Maphumulo s economy. Manufacturing grew over the previous year by 0.6%, but has declined over the previous 5 years by 0.4% (due to the recession in 2008). Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation contributed the third highest to GDP with 16%, general government contributed 14%, transport, storage and communication contributed 12%, and community services contributed 7%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing now only contribute 4.5% to ilembe s GDP, although it is the most significant sector in Maphumulo. Graph 13 Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Income and Expenditure Average annual income per household for ilembe in 2011 was R (R7 881 per month) which is lower than the previous year. Total household income for 2011 in ilembe was estimated at R billion, of which 93% was used as household expenditure. Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district Page 60

61 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 are surviving on government grants and remittance. Mandeni and KwaDukuza accounted for 77% of total remuneration in the district which again shows the spatial economic dynamics of the district. The graph below shows the trend in income for ilembe over the previous 10 years. It is evident that current income has increased by 2 billion over the previous 10 years, however, the majority of this increase, especially over the previous 5 years, has been due to increases in unearned income. Unearned income increased by 4.3% over the previous 5 years, and 9.6% from 2010 to 2011, while remuneration only increased by 1.6% and 1.5% in these same years. Graph 4: Income, remuneration and unearned income trends for ilembe, Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the contribution of expenditure across the four categories of expenditure for each municipality. Durable goods comprised about 7.6% - 9.2% of total expenditure within all of the municipalities, with semi-durable goods comprising between 8% % of total expenditure. The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure. Non-durable goods expenditure was the highest in Ndwedwe (51% of expenditure), while services contributed 40% to expenditure in Mandeni, 47% in KwaDukuza, and almost 36% in Maphumulo. The proportion of expenditure on durable and semi-durable goods has decreased substantially over the previous year which is expected considering that income has reduced over this same period. Graph 14 Distribution of Expenditure in 2011 Page 61

62 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below provides a detailed breakdown of the sub-categories within each main category as a percentage of total expenditure. Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe. Transport and communication contributed 8.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, while rental contributed 10.5% in the district and Clothing and footwear contributed 5.4% to total expenditure in the district. Page 62

63 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 15 Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Domestic Fixed Capital Investment A final indicator of economic activity that is assessed is domestic fixed capital investment by type and sector. R1 702 billion was invested into capital in ilembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza. The graph below shows that investment is mainly being directed into machinery and other equipment which is normal for an economy with a large agricultural and/or manufacturing sector. Investment into this category is decreasing, however, along with the agricultural and manufacturing industries and is being replaced by investment into building and construction works as well as transport equipment. Page 63

64 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 5: Domestic Fixed Investment, 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) The graph below displays the breakdown of capital investment into the various sectors within ilembe. It is clear that domestic fixed investment in ilembe has been predominately channelled into the manufacturing (29%), transport, storage and communications (16.5%), as well as finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors (15.6%). The most impressive sector over all is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms. However, within the local municipalities the situation varies according to the comparative advantages of that municipality. 24% of investment within Mandeni was in the finance sector, 41% into manufacturing, while investment into transport and storage contributed just over 12%. Within KwaDukuza 10% of investment was into agriculture, 30.5% into manufacturing, 15% into transport and storage and 15% into finance. Investment in Ndwedwe was more evenly distributed between the sectors, with agriculture (19%), manufacturing (15%), electricity, gas and water (18%), transport and storage (14%) and general government (14%) all contributing substantially. In Maphumulo, investment was dominated by the transport, storage and communication sector (43.6%) and the general government sector (almost 25%). Page 64

65 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Graph 16: Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in 2011 Source: Quantec s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) Page 65

66 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Key Findings: Production, Expenditure and Investment ilembe s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years; For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector, contributing 18.4% to total GGP; Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district are surviving on government grants and remittance; The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure; Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in ilembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe; R1 702 billion was invested into capital in ilembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza; and The most impressive sector with regard to domestic fixed investment is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms. Page 66

67 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS The tables below display both the nominal and percentage contribution values for each of the indicators presented in the report. Where indicators are not up to date for 2011 this is indicated. A1.1 Population and Households Population Households Number % growth Number % growth ilembe % % Mandeni % % KwaDukuza % % Ndwedwe % % Maphumulo % % A1.2 Racial Profile ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Black Coloured Asian White Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Black 90.7% 93.6% 76.2% 98.2% 99.9% Coloured 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Asian 6.7% 4.4% 17.6% 1.0% 0.0% White 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0% A1.3 HIV and AIDS Number Population HIV Positive AIDS Deaths Percentage Contribution HIV Positive ilembe ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 16.4% 18.9% 15.6% 16.8% 14.4% Page 67

68 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 AIDS Deaths 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% A1.4 Gender Profile Number Male Female Total Percentage Contribution Male Female ilembe ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 47.8% 47.0% 48.8% 50.3% 44.3% 52.2% 53.0% 51.2% 49.7% 55.7% A1.5 Age Profile Number Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) 80+ Year(s) Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Page 68

69 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Number Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) Year(s) 80+ Year(s) ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 11.2% 10.4% 11.0% 10.6% 13.1% 11.1% 10.2% 10.5% 11.2% 13.1% 11.3% 10.9% 8.8% 11.9% 14.9% 11.2% 10.4% 9.9% 12.0% 13.2% 10.2% 10.9% 11.2% 9.6% 8.5% 9.6% 11.5% 9.8% 9.8% 7.0% 7.7% 9.7% 9.0% 6.7% 4.8% 6.1% 7.2% 6.7% 5.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 3.9% 2.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 3.2% 2.7% 3.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% A1.6 Energy used for Lighting (2010) Number Solar/other/unspecified Electricity Gas Paraffin Candles Total Percentage contribution Solar/other/unspecified Electricity Gas Paraffin Candles ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 2, ,671 84,717 28,458 40,432 8,354 7, , , ,606 7,099 5,060 19,451 11, ,275 36,483 46,774 29,543 21,476 ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 2.0% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 7.8% 63.1% 78.0% 86.4% 28.3% 34.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 3.8% 1.1% 32.5% 19.5% 10.8% 65.8% 55.9% Page 69

70 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 A1.7 Type of Toilet (2010) KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Ndwedwe Number ilembe Flush or chemical toilet 37,225 12,784 18,125 4,742 1,574 Pit latrine 73,162 20,477 20,337 17,173 15,174 Bucket latrine 1, None of the above 21,424 2,716 7,219 7,116 4,374 Unspecified/Dummy 1, Total 134,275 36,483 46,774 29,543 21,476 Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage ilembe Flush or chemical toilet 27.7% 35.0% 38.8% 16.0% 7.3% Pit latrine 54.5% 56.1% 43.5% 58.1% 70.7% Bucket latrine 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% None of the above 16.0% 7.4% 15.4% 24.1% 20.4% Unspecified/Dummy 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% A1.8 Water (2010) Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Piped water inside dwelling 22,713 7,061 12,995 1,510 1,147 Piped water inside yard 29,136 10,857 8,310 8,303 1,666 Piped water on community stand: distance less than 200m. from dwelling Piped water on community stand: distance greater than 200m. from dwell 28,672 7,685 15,266 3,266 2,454 14,433 4,596 6,182 2,225 1,430 Borehole/rain-water tank/well 8,416 2, ,629 2,217 Dam/river/stream/spring 28,233 3,202 1,553 11,151 12,326 Water-carrier/tanker/Water vendor 1, Other/Unspecified/Dummy 1, Total 134,275 36,483 46,774 29,543 21,476 Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Page 70

71 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Piped water inside dwelling 16.9% 19.4% 27.8% 5.1% 5.3% Piped water inside yard 21.7% 29.8% 17.8% 28.1% 7.8% Piped water on community stand: distance less than 200m. from dwelling Piped water on community stand: distance greater than 200m. from dwell 21.4% 21.1% 32.6% 11.1% 11.4% 10.7% 12.6% 13.2% 7.5% 6.7% Borehole/rain-water tank/well 6.3% 7.6% 1.7% 8.9% 10.3% Dam/river/stream/spring 21.0% 8.8% 3.3% 37.7% 57.4% Water-carrier/tanker/Water vendor 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% Other/Unspecified/Dummy 1.2% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% A1.9 Type of Dwelling (2010) Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo House or brick structure on a separate stand or yard 50,975 15,327 23,371 7,653 4,624 Traditional dwelling/hut/structure made of traditional materials 43,419 8,716 4,903 14,839 14,960 Flat in a block of flats 6,810 1,980 3, Town/cluster/semi-detached house (simplex, duplex or triplex) 1, House/flat/room, in backyard 2,631 1, Informal dwelling/shack, in backyard 2, , Informal dwelling/shack, NOT in backyard, e.g. in an 12,404 5,348 5, informal/squatter settlement Room/flatlet not in backyard but on a shared property 2,735 1, Other/unspecified/NA 11,331 1,505 5,077 4, Total Percentage Contribution 50,975 15,327 23,371 7,653 4,624 ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo House or brick structure on a separate stand or yard 37.96% 42.01% 49.97% 25.90% 21.53% Traditional dwelling/hut/structure made of traditional materials 32.34% 23.89% 10.48% 50.23% 69.66% Flat in a block of flats 5.07% 5.43% 7.90% 2.29% 2.13% Town/cluster/semi-detached house (simplex, duplex or triplex) 1.06% 0.49% 1.97% 0.68% 0.58% House/flat/room, in backyard 1.96% 3.35% 1.60% 1.71% 0.74% Informal dwelling/shack, in backyard Informal dwelling/shack, NOT in backyard, e.g. in an 1.90% 1.37% 3.43% 0.34% 1.61% 9.24% 14.66% 12.53% 3.07% 1.33% Page 71

72 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 informal/squatter settlement Room/flatlet not in backyard but on a shared property 2.04% 4.69% 1.27% 0.59% 1.20% Other/unspecified/NA 8.44% 4.12% 10.85% 15.19% 1.22% A1.10 Education Level (2010) Number Grade 0/No schooling Grade 1/Sub A Grade 2/Sub B Grade 3/Standard 1 Grade 4/Standard 2 Grade 5/Standard 3 Grade 6/Standard 4 Grade 7/Standard 5 Grade 8/Standard 6/Form 1 Grade 9/Standard 7/Form 2 Grade 10/Standard 8/Form 3/NTC1 Grade 11/Standard 9/Form 4/NTC11 Grade 12/Standard 10/Form 5/Matric/NTC111 Less than matric & certif/dip Certificate with Grade 12 Diploma with Grade 12 Bachelor's Degree Bachelor's Degree and Diploma Honours degree Higher Degree (Master's, Doctorate) Other/Unspecified/NA Total Percentage Contribution Grade 0/No schooling Grade 1/Sub A Grade 2/Sub B Grade 3/Standard 1 Grade 4/Standard 2 Grade 5/Standard 3 ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 79,311 14,329 18,678 24,127 22,177 22,556 4,956 6,165 6,299 5,136 25,281 5,872 6,148 7,208 6,053 22,689 4,113 5,797 7,385 5,394 24,381 5,278 7,422 6,854 4,827 27,979 6,356 7,451 8,378 5,794 26,553 5,766 8,060 7,347 5,380 31,877 6,480 11,431 7,180 6,786 34,840 8,854 10,336 8,704 6,946 37,352 9,299 10,936 10,516 6,601 37,083 10,120 12,552 9,015 5,396 51,475 16,335 12,813 13,923 8,403 51,319 15,192 21,022 7,975 7,131 6,160 1,112 3,059 1, , , , , , , , ,289 15,078 21,366 15,786 16, , , , , ,692 ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo % 10.9% 10.9% 16.7% 19.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 3.6% 5.0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 3.4% 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.3% 5.8% 5.1% Page 72

73 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Number Grade 6/Standard 4 Grade 7/Standard 5 Grade 8/Standard 6/Form 1 Grade 9/Standard 7/Form 2 Grade 10/Standard 8/Form 3/NTC1 Grade 11/Standard 9/Form 4/NTC11 Grade 12/Standard 10/Form 5/Matric/NTC111 Less than matric & certif/dip Certificate with Grade 12 Diploma with Grade 12 Bachelor's Degree Bachelor's Degree and Diploma Honours degree Higher Degree (Master's, Doctorate) Other/Unspecified/NA ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.7% 5.7% 4.9% 6.6% 5.0% 5.9% 6.2% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.6% 7.1% 6.4% 7.3% 5.8% 6.6% 7.7% 7.3% 6.2% 4.7% 9.1% 12.4% 7.5% 9.6% 7.3% 9.1% 11.5% 12.2% 5.5% 6.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.1% 11.5% 12.4% 10.9% 14.0% A1.11 Employment and Unemployment Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Population - Working age (16-65 years old) Employed - Formal and informal Unemployed Not economically active A1.12 Employment by type and skill level Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Employed - Formal and informal Employed - Formal Employed - Formal - Highly skilled Employed - Formal - Skilled Employed - Formal - Semiand unskilled Employed Informal Page 73

74 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Maphumulo KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Mandeni ilembe Percentage Contribution Formally Employed 77% 76% 76% 78% 84% Informally Employed 23% 24% 24% 22% 16% KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni ilembe Percentage Contribution Highly Skilled 15% 15% 14% 16% 24% Skilled 39% 45% 37% 34% 39% Semi and Unskilled 46% 40% 49% 50% 36% A1.13 Employment by Industry Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.2% 3.8% 10.8% 21.1% 5.1% Mining and quarrying 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Manufacturing 16.5% 26.9% 15.0% 9.3% 4.0% Electricity, gas and water 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Construction 6.3% 2.2% 7.9% 10.2% 2.9% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication 21.5% 25.7% 22.8% 18.4% 5.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 9.1% Page 74

75 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Number ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 13.3% 22.8% 11.3% 6.0% 7.1% Community, social and personal services 16.7% 9.1% 19.6% 14.2% 31.0% General government 11.7% 5.6% 9.5% 17.2% 35.4% A1.14 Gross Geographic Product by Industry Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Page 75

76 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.5% 9.9% 4.2% 10.5% 21.0% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% Manufacturing 18.2% 22.9% 30.4% 23.3% 15.1% Electricity, gas and water 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 3.7% Construction 4.2% 3.9% 1.4% 4.6% 7.4% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 15.9% 16.8% 18.6% 18.3% 14.9% Transport, storage and communication 12.3% 6.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 18.4% 19.3% 29.6% 17.8% 9.1% Community, social and personal services 7.1% 6.2% 3.0% 6.8% 5.6% General government 14.3% 10.9% 4.4% 10.2% 15.5% A1.16 Expenditure by Category KwaDukuza Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd Mandeni Ndwedwe ilembe quarter) Durable Goods Semi-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Services Total KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Ndwedwe ilembe Contribution Durable Goods 7.9% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% Semi-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods 9.2% 9.9% 8.0% 8.8% 12.4% 41.8% 42.6% 37.6% 51.0% 43.3% Services 41.2% 39.9% 46.8% 31.5% 35.2% A1.17 Expenditure by sub-category Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Durable Goods Furniture, household appliances, etc Personal transport equipment ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Page 76

77 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Semi- Durable Non- Durable Services ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Recreational and entertainment goods Other durable goods Clothing and footwear Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and accessories Recreational and entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods Food, beverages and tobacco Household fuel and power Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical products Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods Rent Household services, including domestic servants Medical services Transport and communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services Miscellaneous services Percentage Contribution Durable Goods Semi- Durable Furniture, household appliances, etc Personal transport equipment Recreational and entertainment goods Other durable goods Clothing and footwear Household textiles, furnishings, glassware, etc Motor car tyres, parts and accessories Recreational and entertainment goods ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 1.54% 1.57% 1.34% 1.74% 2.05% 4.50% 4.19% 4.10% 5.72% 5.48% 1.11% 1.09% 1.38% 0.56% 0.88% 0.74% 0.74% 0.76% 0.68% 0.75% 5.42% 6.17% 4.34% 5.03% 8.11% 1.40% 1.47% 1.16% 1.55% 1.97% 1.39% 1.36% 1.27% 1.66% 1.61% 0.64% 0.58% 0.78% 0.44% 0.49% Page 77

78 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Rand Millions (2nd quarter) Non- Durable Services Miscellaneous goods Food, beverages and tobacco Household fuel and power Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical products Petroleum products Recreational and entertainment goods Rent Household services, including domestic servants Medical services Transport and communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services Miscellaneous services ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 0.34% 0.36% 0.43% 0.11% 0.22% 26.57% 27.03% 24.33% 32.33% 26.28% 4.57% 5.42% 3.03% 6.24% 5.99% 4.12% 4.50% 3.83% 3.93% 4.40% 1.45% 1.11% 1.83% 1.29% 1.14% 4.09% 3.67% 3.45% 6.43% 4.78% 0.95% 0.83% 1.17% 0.78% 0.67% 10.55% 9.59% 13.58% 7.27% 5.55% 2.55% 2.58% 2.63% 2.45% 2.29% 6.47% 6.51% 7.24% 4.54% 5.85% 8.59% 8.40% 9.94% 5.72% 7.63% 4.65% 4.91% 4.55% 3.85% 5.33% 8.35% 7.93% 8.87% 7.66% 8.54% A1.18 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Total Buildings and construction works Machinery and other equipment Transport equipment Transfer costs Percentage Contribution Buildings and construction works Machinery and other equipment ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo 38.8% 31.4% 37.6% 49.7% 51.3% 48.3% 55.4% 50.3% 39.0% 29.6% Transport equipment 11.5% 10.3% 11.2% 10.6% 18.7% Transfer costs 1.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% A1.19 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry Page 78

79 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Rand Millions ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation Transport, storage and communication Finance, insurance, real estate and business services Community, social and personal services General government Total Percentage Contribution ilembe Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.4% 4.0% 10.4% 19.4% 4.4% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% Manufacturing 29.0% 40.9% 30.5% 14.8% 6.2% Electricity, gas and water 6.0% 1.7% 4.9% 17.9% 4.3% Construction 1.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.6% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 6.6% 1.6% Transport, storage and communication 16.5% 12.6% 14.7% 14.2% 43.6% Finance, insurance, real estate and business services 15.6% 24.1% 15.0% 7.1% 6.2% Community, social and personal services 2.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 8.2% General government 10.0% 4.0% 9.8% 13.8% 24.4% A1.20 Building Plans KwaDukuza Approvals Submissions Completions Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value Total no of plans Area (m2) Total est. value January February March April May Page 79

80 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 June July August September October November December January February ,730 20,321, ,274 88,310, ,132 53,595,200 March ,115 80,806, , ,871, ,855 70,215,327 April ,278 92,231, ,654 85,104, ,895 72,623,600 May ,972 70,088, , ,547, ,267 56,281,000 June , ,642, , ,644, , ,105,300 August October November December January February March April May June A1.21 New Service Connections KwaDukuza Single Phase Three Phase Maximum Demand Total Electricity Connections Total Water Connections Jan-March (Q1) April-June (Q2) July-Sept (Q3) Oct-Dec (Q4) Jan-March (Q1) April-June (Q2) July August Page 80

81 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 September October November December January February March April May June A1.22 Airport Passenger Movements King Shaka International OR Tambo International Cape Town International Richards Bay Jan ,474 1,379, ,777 8,045 Feb ,138 1,294, ,521 8,093 Mar ,244 1,541, ,347 8,122 Apr ,248 1,471, ,799 8,177 May ,712 1,415, ,701 8,195 Jun ,958 1,606, ,907 8,219 Jul ,342 1,571, ,722 8,236 Aug ,934 1,606, ,716 8,249 Sep ,797 1,605, ,168 8,269 Oct ,150 1,680, ,713 8,288 Nov ,454 1,540, ,598 8,299 Dec ,535 1,600, ,783 8,357 Jan ,781 1,507, ,035 5,273 Feb ,166 1,373, ,458 6,371 Mar ,680 1,665, ,929 7,203 Apr ,985 1,590, ,336 May ,906 1,516, ,991 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Page 81

82 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 Apr-12 May A1.23 Port Movements Richards Bay Durban Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, millions) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels (millions) Total Cargo Handled (metric tonnes, millions) Total Number of Vessels Gross Tonnage of Vessels (millions) Jan-10 8, ,182 5, ,182 Feb-10 5, ,842 7, ,842 Mar-10 7, ,167 5, ,527 Apr-10 5, ,217 5, ,866 May-10 6,601 5, ,665 Jun-10 5,877 6, ,825 Jul-10 7, ,628 6, ,321 Aug-10 7, ,180 7, ,950 Sep-10 6, ,810 5, ,978 Oct-10 9, ,670 6, ,671 Nov-10 8, ,341 8, ,146 Dec-10 7, ,412 5, ,238 Jan-11 6, ,878 6, ,504 Feb-11 7, ,611 7, ,274 Mar-11 7,031, 146 5,219 5, ,044 Apr-11 6,817, 162 5,108 5, ,559 May-11 6, ,140 6, ,981 Jun-11 5, ,216 7, ,039 Jul-11 6, ,639 6, ,140 Aug-11 8, ,513 7, ,692 Sep-11 6, ,214 6, ,620 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June Page 82

83 ilembe District Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 2 nd Quarter 2012 REPORT COMPILED FOR: Enterprise ilembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: Fax: REPORT COMPILED BY: Urban-Econ Development Economists 37 Hunt Road, Glenwood Durban, 4001 Tel: Fax: durban@urban-econ.com