Coastal hazard zones and home values: Main analysis & results
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1 Coastal hazard zones and home values: Main analysis & results Christine Blinn Rob Johnston Klaus Moeltner Presented at the workshop: The Economics of Natural and Nature Based Coastal Adaptation - Separating Fact from Fiction for Resilience Decision-making, Great Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, Greenland, NH, March 29, 217 Funding by the Northeast Sea Grant Consortium is gratefully acknowledged 1 / 33
2 Intro Impact of location in SFHA on home values (CT,RI,MA,NH,ME) 2 / 33
3 Intro Impact of location in SFHA on home values (CT,RI,MA,NH,ME) Existing lit: -1% to -11% loss - not much known about New England 2 / 33
4 Intro Impact of location in SFHA on home values (CT,RI,MA,NH,ME) Existing lit: -1% to -11% loss - not much known about New England Residential sales / 33
5 Intro Impact of location in SFHA on home values (CT,RI,MA,NH,ME) Existing lit: -1% to -11% loss - not much known about New England Residential sales Focus on 1% annual flood risk Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) 2 / 33
6 Intro Impact of location in SFHA on home values (CT,RI,MA,NH,ME) Existing lit: -1% to -11% loss - not much known about New England Residential sales Focus on 1% annual flood risk Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) Matching with Bayesian regression adjustment 2 / 33
7 Intro true treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) 3 / 33
8 Intro true treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) basic estimate of counter-factual: ŷ (x i ) = y (x j ) 3 / 33
9 Intro true treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) basic estimate of counter-factual: ŷ (x i ) = y (x j ) resulting estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = y 1 (x i ) y (x j ) 3 / 33
10 Intro true treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) basic estimate of counter-factual: ŷ (x i ) = y (x j ) resulting estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = y 1 (x i ) y (x j ) expectation ( ) of treatment estimate: E ˆT i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x j )) 3 / 33
11 Intro true treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) basic estimate of counter-factual: ŷ (x i ) = y (x j ) resulting estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = y 1 (x i ) y (x j ) expectation ( ) of treatment estimate: E ˆT i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x j )) unbiased if: E (y (x i )) = E (y (x j )) 3 / 33
12 Intro True treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) 4 / 33
13 Intro True treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) regression-adjusted estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = {y 1 (x i ) y (x j )} {ˆµ (x i ) ˆµ (x j )} 4 / 33
14 Intro True treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) regression-adjusted estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = {y 1 (x i ) y (x j )} {ˆµ (x i ) ˆµ (x j )} expectation ( ) of adjusted estimate: E ˆT i = {E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x j ))} {E (ˆµ (x i )) E (ˆµ (x j ))} 4 / 33
15 Intro True treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) regression-adjusted estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = {y 1 (x i ) y (x j )} {ˆµ (x i ) ˆµ (x j )} expectation ( ) of adjusted estimate: E ˆT i = {E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x j ))} {E (ˆµ (x i )) E (ˆµ (x j ))} unbiased if: E (y (x i )) = E (y (x j )) OR E (ˆµ (x s )) = E (y (x s )), s = i, j 4 / 33
16 Intro True treatment effect: T i = E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x i )) regression-adjusted estimate of treatment effect: ˆT i = {y 1 (x i ) y (x j )} {ˆµ (x i ) ˆµ (x j )} expectation ( ) of adjusted estimate: E ˆT i = {E (y 1 (x i )) E (y (x j ))} {E (ˆµ (x i )) E (ˆµ (x j ))} unbiased if: E (y (x i )) = E (y (x j )) OR E (ˆµ (x s )) = E (y (x s )), s = i, j Double-robust 4 / 33
17 Intro Estimation risks and responses Mis-specified hedonic price function / Use non-parametric matching instead 5 / 33
18 Intro Estimation risks and responses Mis-specified hedonic price function / Use non-parametric matching instead Space-invariant temporal shocks / Force matches to be within 1 calendar year 5 / 33
19 Intro Estimation risks and responses Mis-specified hedonic price function / Use non-parametric matching instead Space-invariant temporal shocks / Force matches to be within 1 calendar year Time-invariant spatial confounders / Include SZ effects in aux. regression 5 / 33
20 Intro Estimation risks and responses Mis-specified hedonic price function / Use non-parametric matching instead Space-invariant temporal shocks / Force matches to be within 1 calendar year Time-invariant spatial confounders / Include SZ effects in aux. regression Biased standard errors / Use Bayesian framework for regression adjustment 5 / 33
21 Matching Balanced Matching Pick control homes such that treatment becomes (largely) independent of observables 6 / 33
22 Matching Balanced Matching Pick control homes such that treatment becomes (largely) independent of observables Same / similar distribution of x for both groups 6 / 33
23 Matching Balanced Matching Pick control homes such that treatment becomes (largely) independent of observables Same / similar distribution of x for both groups Less specification burden for the auxiliary regression 6 / 33
24 Matching Balanced Matching Pick control homes such that treatment becomes (largely) independent of observables Same / similar distribution of x for both groups Less specification burden for the auxiliary regression GenMatch algorithm developed by Diamond and Sekhon (213) 6 / 33
25 Matching MatchingVariables structural nature urban age elevation interstate (miles) sqft beach (miles) pricipal artery (miles) lot coast, estuary (miles) high-density development (miles) bedrooms reservoir, lake (miles acres of industrial land 1m bathrooms river (miles) acres of agricultural land 1m acres of open land 1m sale year forced to be within 1 year on either side of treated 7 / 33
26 Matching Variables in the auxiliary regression: 8 / 33
27 Matching Variables in the auxiliary regression: 1 Same as for matching, PLUS: 8 / 33
28 Matching Variables in the auxiliary regression: 1 Same as for matching, PLUS: 2 /1 indicator for waterfront location (<.5 miles form shore) 8 / 33
29 Matching Variables in the auxiliary regression: 1 Same as for matching, PLUS: 2 /1 indicator for waterfront location (<.5 miles form shore) 3 /1 indicators for all relevant school zones 8 / 33
30 Matching Variables in the auxiliary regression: 1 Same as for matching, PLUS: 2 /1 indicator for waterfront location (<.5 miles form shore) 3 /1 indicators for all relevant school zones 4 /1 indicators for all relevant sale years 8 / 33
31 available controls available controls available controls available controls available controls matched controls matched controls matched controls matched controls matched controls Matching Example: Suffolk/Norfolk Counties, MA 4 age 2 age square footage (1s) lot size (1s of sqft) square footage (1s) lot size (1s of sqft) bedrooms bedrooms bathrooms treated bathrooms treated 9 / 33
32 available controls available controls available controls available controls available controls matched controls matched controls matched controls matched controls matched controls Matching Example: Suffolk/Norfolk Counties, MA 6 elevation (1 meter resolution) 2 elevation (1 meter resolution miles to beach miles to beach miles to coast/estuary miles to coast/estuary miles to lake/reservoir miles to river treated miles to lake/reservoir miles to river treated 1 / 33
33 available controls available controls available controls available controls available controls matched controls matched controls matched controls matched controls matched controls Matching Example: Suffolk/Norfolk/Plymouth Counties, MA 3 miles to principal artery 3 miles to principal artery miles to high-density development acres of ind. land, 1 meters acres of ag. land, 1 meters acres of open land, 1 meters treated miles to high-density development acres of ind. land, 1 meters acres of ag. land, 1 meters acres of open land, 1 meters treated 11 / 33
34 Matching Example: Suffolk/Norfolk Counties, MA 12 / 33
35 CT CT matching statistics controls treated available chosen <.25 5,553 9,428 2,247 <.5 7,284 19,129 3,66 <1. 9,667 38,414 5,365 >1. 5, ,742 4, / 33
36 CT CT results SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % -5.95% -2.72% < % -6.7% -3.62% < % -2.41% -.53% > % -1.12% -.51% 14 / 33
37 MA MA matching statistics (Islands) controls treated available chosen < , < , <1. 1,52 1, > , / 33
38 MA MA results (Islands) SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % -3.26% 7.86% < % 1.99% 1.18% < % -6.27% 1.12% > % -3.69% 22.3% 16 / 33
39 MA MA matching statistics (Bristol) controls treated available chosen < , < , < , > , / 33
40 MA MA results (Bristol) SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % 3.2% 11.57% < % 8.51% 15.3% < % 8.65% 14.2% > % -2.11%.1% 18 / 33
41 MA MA matching statistics (Plymouth) controls treated available chosen <.25 2,153 5, <.5 2,585 8,991 1,37 <1. 3,26 15,12 1,385 > , / 33
42 MA MA results (Plymouth) SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % 8.75% 12.2% < % 7.98% 1.9% < % 5.1% 6.92% > % -2.%.96% 2 / 33
43 MA MA matching statistics (Norfolk/Suffolk) controls treated available chosen <.25 2,36 5, <.5 2,397 1,15 1,224 <1. 2,61 17,259 1,43 >1. 2, ,922 2,35 21 / 33
44 MA MA results (Norfolk/Suffolk) SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % -3.13% -1.68% < % -3.75% -2.54% < % -2.93% -1.71% > % -2.47% -1.57% 22 / 33
45 density density MA.2 Coastal estimation results Plymouth Norfolk/Suffolk ATT ($s).2 Interior estimation results Plymouth Norfolk/Suffolk ATT ($s) 23 / 33
46 MA MA matching statistics (Essex) controls treated available chosen <.25 1,338 9,518 8 <.5 1,654 17, <1. 1,789 25,953 1,155 >1. 1,5 57, / 33
47 MA MA results (Essex) SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % 1.92% 5.64% < % 1.67% 4.67% < % 2.5% 5.18% > %.51% 2.49% 25 / 33
48 ME ME matching statistics controls treated available chosen < , < , < ,96 15 > , / 33
49 ME ME results SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % -.37% 45.51% < %.26% 26.39% < % % 8.5% > %.2% 13.63% 27 / 33
50 NH NH matching statistics controls treated available chosen < < , < , >1. 1,869 11,897 1,92 28 / 33
51 NH NH results SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % % -1.48% < % % % < % % -9.1% > % -.56%.9% 29 / 33
52 RI RI matching statistics controls treated available chosen <.25 1,59 6, <.5 1,868 12,978 1,2 <1. 2,261 24,44 1,576 >1. 1,791 7,41 1,433 3 / 33
53 RI RI results SFHA effect ($s) SFHA effect (% of avg. price) low mean high low mean high < % -4.2% 1.43% < % -3.86% -.1% < % 1.37% 3.74% > % 3.37% 5.6% 31 / 33
54 Conclusions CT: Perceived SFHA risk diminishes as we move away from shore -6% (.25 miles) to 1% (interior) 32 / 33
55 Conclusions CT: Perceived SFHA risk diminishes as we move away from shore -6% (.25 miles) to 1% (interior) MA (Norfolk/Suffolk): basically same pattern -3% (.25 miles) to -2.5% (interior) 32 / 33
56 Conclusions CT: Perceived SFHA risk diminishes as we move away from shore -6% (.25 miles) to 1% (interior) MA (Norfolk/Suffolk): basically same pattern -3% (.25 miles) to -2.5% (interior) Remaining MA areas noisy, confounding effects 32 / 33
57 Conclusions CT: Perceived SFHA risk diminishes as we move away from shore -6% (.25 miles) to 1% (interior) MA (Norfolk/Suffolk): basically same pattern -3% (.25 miles) to -2.5% (interior) Remaining MA areas noisy, confounding effects NH: -2 to 23% (coast), basically % (interior) 32 / 33
58 Conclusions CT: Perceived SFHA risk diminishes as we move away from shore -6% (.25 miles) to 1% (interior) MA (Norfolk/Suffolk): basically same pattern -3% (.25 miles) to -2.5% (interior) Remaining MA areas noisy, confounding effects NH: -2 to 23% (coast), basically % (interior) RI: -4% (coast) to +3% (interior) 32 / 33
59 Conclusions CT: Perceived SFHA risk diminishes as we move away from shore -6% (.25 miles) to 1% (interior) MA (Norfolk/Suffolk): basically same pattern -3% (.25 miles) to -2.5% (interior) Remaining MA areas noisy, confounding effects NH: -2 to 23% (coast), basically % (interior) RI: -4% (coast) to +3% (interior) ME: samples sizes too small to draw meaningful conclusions 32 / 33
60 Conclusions Caveats & Next steps SFHA designations may have changed over time 33 / 33
61 Conclusions Caveats & Next steps SFHA designations may have changed over time Temporal variation in SFHA effect likely due to storm shocks and Biggert-Waters FI reform act ( ) 33 / 33
62 Conclusions Caveats & Next steps SFHA designations may have changed over time Temporal variation in SFHA effect likely due to storm shocks and Biggert-Waters FI reform act ( ) MA: More detailed GIS analysis needed for some areas (viewshed, exposure, slope, private pier, etc.) 33 / 33
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