Advance retail sales in July

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1 Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer Jordy Juvera Economics Associate Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst HR Ratings comments on the acceleration in retail sales growth although inflation is also playing a major role. US retail sales continued to show strength in July with acceleration in the rate of growth. The implications are positive for the July report for overall consumer goods spending. As is always the case, the analysis of the numbers is complicated by the fact that they are in nominal as opposed to real terms with different rates of inflation for the different components of total sales. Total Retail and Food Services sales on a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) advanced at an annual rate of 6.32% vs. the same period in 2017, and at an annualized rate of 8.34% (please see table below) vs. the quarter that ended in April. In the June report the increases were at a less robust 5.72% and 7.22%, respectively. Food services and gasoline station sales grew at extremely strong rates of 19.7% and 15.4% on an annualized basis. High rates of inflation probably play a major role here and should be considered when evaluating the strength of these sectors. Adjusting for gasoline prices, the real term increase in gasoline station sales has probably been minimal. Were we to exclude both gasoline and foods services, remaining retail sales advanced at slower rates of 4.77% and 6.0% on an annual and annualized basis. However, although the nominal rates of growth are significantly lower, inflation is also weaker. July Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales in Millions of USD (3MMA) Jul-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 YoY Change QoQ Change* Retail and Food Services, Total 475, , , % 8.34% Total excluding Food Services 419, , , % 6.89% Total excluding Motor Vehicles & Parts 376, , , % 8.85% Total excluding Gasoline Stations 439, , , % 7.70% Total excluding Food and Gasoline 383, , , % 6.02% Food Services 56,192 58,058 60, % 19.69% Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers 99, , , % 6.34% Gasoline Stations 36,020 41,757 43, % 15.42% Source: HR Ratings w ith data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. *Quarter vs. immediately prior quarter at annualized rate. In Graph 1 below we show the annual 3MMA rates of growth for total retail and food services sales as well as for different components of the total. The strength of the gray line shows the impact of excluding relatively weak motor vehicles and parts sales. The orange line, which is substantially weaker than the total retail and food services line, reflects the strength in nominal terms of gasoline sales. Finally, excluding both gasoline and food services, we have the purple line which shows relatively significant weakness in contrast to the other series. Hoja 1 de 5

2 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Advance retail sales in July Graph 1: Retail sales annual change - excluding key categories (3MMA) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% Total Retail Sales Total excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers Total excl. food and gasoline Total excluding food services Total excluding gasoline stations 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: HR Ratings with data from the United States Census Bureau and FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Based on nominal seasonally adjusted data. In Graph 2 we present the evolution of inflation measured based on the PCE consumer goods price deflator as well as those based on durable goods and energy. The differences across these measures reflects the complexity of inferring real changes in the retail sales numbers. Durable goods inflation, for example, remains persistently negative while energy inflation (on the right-hand scale) is currently very high and historically very volatile. Significantly, even though energy inflation is on a substantially different scale its movements track relatively closely those of the overall PCE goods inflation deflator. What is significant is the upward trend in overall consumer goods inflation. Graph 2: Year over year monthly change in PCE goods inflation 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1% 3.9% PCE Goods Inflation PCE Durable Goods Inflation PCE: Energy Inflation (Scale on right) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 4.7% 25% Source: HR Ratings with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In Graph 3 below we show the relatively close relationship between retail sales and consumer goods spending, one of the more important components of GDP growth. Although the relationship is significant, consumer goods spending is consistently weaker. Hoja 2 de 5

3 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Advance retail sales in July Graph 3: Annual change in Retail Sales and Goods Consumer Expenditures (3MMA) 6.5% 5.9% 5.3% 4.7% Total Retail and Food Services Sales Retails sales less food services Consumer Goods 4.1% 3.5% 2.9% 2.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% Source: HR Ratings with data from the U.S. Census Bureau, BEA and FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Based on nominal seasonally adjusted data. In evaluating the significance of the upward trend in annual retail sales growth and in consumer goods pending, the assessment of inflation is important. In Graph 4 we show the differences in real and nominal consumer goods spending growth. Although nominal consumer spending on goods has been accelerating, as we also saw in Graph 3, this has not been the case with spending in real terms. This suggests that PCE consumer goods inflation has been accelerating, which is what is evidenced in Graph 2. Graph 4: Annual change in Consumer Expenditures: Goods (3MMA) 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Year over year real change Year over year nominal change 0.5% Source: HR Ratings with data from the United States Census Bureau in nominal seasonally adjusted terms. Hoja 3 de 5

4 HR Ratings Management Contacts Management Chairman of the Board Vice President Alberto I. Ramos Aníbal Habeica Chief Executive Officer Fernando Montes de Oca Analysis Chief Credit Officer Deputy Chief Credit Officer Felix Boni Pedro Latapí Public Finance / Infrastructure Financial Institutions / ABS Ricardo Gallegos Fernando Sandoval ricardo.gallegos@hrratings.com fernando.sandoval@hrratings.com Roberto Ballinez roberto.ballinez@hrratings.com Corporates / ABS Methodologies José Luis Cano Alfonso Sales joseluis.cano@hrratings.com alfonso.sales@hrratings.com Regulation Chief Risk Officer Head Compliance Officer Rogelio Argüelles Rafael Colado rogelio.arguelles@hrratings.com rafael.colado@hrratings.com Business Development Business Development Francisco Valle francisco.valle@hrratings.com Hoja 4 de 5

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