Sustainable Oil Sands Development A Shared Pursuit. November 20, 2014 Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Sustainable Oil Sands Development A Shared Pursuit. November 20, 2014 Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce"

Valerie O’Neal’
5 years ago
Views:

1 Sustainable Oil Sands Development A Shared Pursuit November 20, 2014 Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce

2 Overview Scope of oil sands development Update on OSCA Current situation

3 How Much Oil Does Canada Have? Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec & AER billion barrels Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria United States Kazakhstan Qatar China World Oil Reserves Restricted (81%) Open to Private Sector Open to Private Sector 19% Oil Sands 53% Other 47%

4 Canadian Production - Oil Sands & Conventional Source: CAPP 2014 Oil Sands - Mbpd

5 Oil Sands Workforce Demand Forecast Sources: Petroleum HR Council and BuildForce,

6 A Key Driving Force in the Canadian Economy $71B Industry investment in Canada in 2014 Canada s exports from oil and gas 19% Largest single private investor in Canada Payments to all levels of governments per year $18B 550,000+ Employed by industry (direct and indirect) 6

7 Creating Economic Benefits Across Canada No. of Direct Oil Sands Suppliers ( ) 2,370 Canada 1,939 U.S Europe YT NWT NU BC AB SK MB 60 ON 1123 QC 191 NB NL PEI NS 41 Source: 2014 CAPP Oil Sands Supply Chain Identification 7

8 Origins of OSCA - Five Pillars of Collaboration Oil Sands CEO Council Environmental innovation and regional performance Regional socio-economic issues Regional execution and operational excellence Communications and engagement Policy and strategy Oil Sands Community Alliance (OSCA) 8

9 OSCA Vision To pursue innovative solutions that help to build thriving communities and shared value with our neighbours and enables the responsible growth of Canada s oil sands. We facilitate engagement, build relationships and collaborate to create measurable socio-economic benefits. 9

10 OSCA Community Engagement Encourage and promote increased collaboration and new ways for industry and community to work together; Identify, prioritize and manage regional socio-economic issues, and Develop strategies, principles and make recommendations on socio-economic policy Acknowledge and understand that meaningful change takes time and effort. 10

11 Aboriginal Relations Focus Area Strategic Mandate and Priorities 1. Promote Aboriginal Community Well-Being 2. Enhance economic opportunities 3. Improve education capacity and employment 11

12 Value of Contracts with Aboriginal Companies Aboriginal companies performed over $1.9 billion in contract work with OSCA members in Over the past 15 years, Aboriginal companies have earned over $10 billion in revenues. 2,500 2,000 $Millions - Dollars 1,500 1, Source: 2014 OSCA Annual Surveys 12

13 Community Well-Being Focus Area Strategic Mandate and Priorities 1. Define Sustainable Community Indicators 2. Healthy Society 3. Responsible Corporate Citizens 4. Capital Planning and Budgeting 13

14 Infrastructure Focus Area Strategic Mandate and Priorities 1. Identify changing priorities and infrastructure needs of the region Ground transportation Aviation Camps Power and Co-generation 2. Enhance Decision Making and Investment Planning 3. Develop Collaborative Solutions 14

15 Workforce Focus Area Strategic Priorities 1. Identify required skills 2. Retain an adequate supply of trained workers 3. Work with active groups to forecast labour numbers 15

16 Pressures on the Canadian Oil Industry Geopolitics Crude Oil Supply Market Access Social License Demand & Competition The Canadian Oil Industry to 2030 Technology Environmental Performance Government Policy Skilled Workforce Aboriginal Relationships 16

17 Workforce Challenges FIFO/DIDO Fort McMurray RMWB Est. Shadow Population Count June 25, 2014 Type Project accommodation N. Fort McMurray Project Accommodation S. of Fort McMurray # Enumerated Count 58 31, ,908 SUB-TOTAL ,686 Campgrounds, Hotels, Motels 31 4,264 Homeless shelters TOTAL ,101 Source: RMWB Est Shadow Population. Map for reference only 17

18 Canadian Pipeline Capacity vs 2014 Supply Forecast Enbridge Mainline PADD IV Trans Mountain Express

19 Going Forward Production Workforce Population 19

20 CAPP Bitumen Production Forecast 6,000 5, bpd 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Total Production 2014 Total Production 2013 Total bitumen production (Athabasca, Cold Lake, Peace River) CAPP 2014 forecast reduced marginally Production bpd Avg annual growth rate from M 3.2 M 4.8 M 7.4% 5.5% All Areas 2030 (2014 Forecast) 4.8 M bpd 2030 (2013 Forecast) 5.5 M bpd

21 In Situ and Mining Bitumen Output In situ production is larger than mining output In situ production is expected to grow more quickly than mining output 000 bpd 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Total Production 2014 Oil Sands Mining Oil Sands In Situ Mining output Mineable oil sands north of Fort McMurray 2013 mining production: 0.85 M bpd 2030 forecast: 1.6 M bpd Average annual growth: 3.8% In situ output Cold Lake and Peace River Oil Sands Area. Wabasca/Desmarais and Anzac/Conklin areas 2013 in situ production: 1.1 M bpd 2030 forecast: 3.2 M bpd Average annual growth: 6.5%

22 Bitumen Production by Area RMWB and northern portion of LLB County: 74%-80% of total bitumen production Well understood geology & proven technology o Truck and Shovel Mining o SAGD in situ Substantial challenges o Tailings pond management/reclamation o Water usage Other areas: 20%-26% of total bitumen production Wabasca-Desmarais Area: o Technology in pilot phase o Large potential; substantial challenges 000 bpd 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Other areas (continued) Cold Lake o Well understood geology and proven technology Peace River Areas o Relatively well understood geology and emerging technological solutions Total Production 2014 Oil Sands Production RMWB/LLB Oil Sands Production Other

23 RMWB Population Forecast Methodology Consensus: Need to link population forecasts and bitumen output and type of project Need to reflect the industry reality of construction and operations camps RMWB MDP 2011 forecast model and output Link between bitumen output and population MDP derives low, medium high cases MDP high case, which implies very high bitumen output relative to 2014 CAPP forecast Bitumen Production M bpd CAPP 2014 (RMWB ~2.4 ~3.9 only) MDP 2011 (high case) ~5.0 ~6.9 A recent forecast suggests: Resident Population Fort McMurray 96, ,000 Rural Areas of Wood Buffalo ,500-5, , ,000 5,800-6,200 Camps 50,000-53,000 75,000-80,000 Total 3 rd RMWB party forecast 150,500- is in line 202,800- medium MDP 158,000 case; well 213,200 below the high MDP case used Draft 3 rd party forecast

24 AOSA Aviation Activity

25 AOSA Aviation Activity Map-Based Summary Relative Distribution of Passenger Flows (2023)

26 AOSA Aviation Activity Map-Based Summary Ten Year Outlook (2023)

27 Origins of Flight Communities Airport Code City # Companies Using this Airport YYC Calgary 24 YEG Edmonton 17 YXE Saskatoon 6 YVR Vancouver 3 YLW Kelowna 3 Other communities of origin for regularly scheduled flights (incl. stopovers) include: St. Johns Medicine Hat Lethbridge Prince Albert Comox Hamilton Springbank Bonnyville Lloydminster Cranbrook Winnipeg Montreal Red Deer Lac La Biche Peace River Kamploops Thunder Bay Moncton Sydney Halifax

28 Current Activity Current AOSA Oil Sands Production Capacity Study Sub region 2013 Production (Mbpd) As % of Total North % Central % South % West % Total %

29 Current Onsite Workforces Study Sub region Pre Project + Construction Operations + Sustaining Maintenance 2013 Total Onsite As % of Total North 14,800 8,300 23,100 42% Central 9,100 14,400 23,500 43% South 3,600 3,700 7,300 14% West % Total 27,600 26,800 54, % As % of Total 51% 49% 100%

30 Current Passenger Movements Study Sub region Public Airports* Private Aerodromes 2013 Total Weekly Passenger Movements As % of Total North ,200 14,800 53% Central 6,200 3,200 9,400 34% South 3,500 3,500 13% West % Total 6,890 20,920 27, % As % of Total 25% 75% 100% *All but West via YMM. Represents only portion of total commercial traffic.

31 Total Expected Onsite Workforces by Sub-Region 40,000 35,000 33,500 On site Workforce 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 23,500 23,100 7,300 26,300 14,500 28,900 23,900 15,500 North Central South West 5,000 2, ,500

32 Expected Passenger Movements Over Time Study Total Weekly Passenger Movements Change ( ) Change ( ) Sub region PMs (%) PMs (%) North 14,800 20,000 18,100 5,200 35% 3,300 22% Central 9,400 11,800 10,800 2,400 26% 1,400 15% South 3,500 5,100 6,300 1,600 46% 2,800 80% West 110 1,600 3,000 1, % 2, % Total 27,810 38,500 38,200 10,690 38% 10,390 37%

33 Expected Passenger Movements (Weekly) Study Sub region Public Airports* Private Aerodromes 2023 Total Weekly Passenger Movements As % of Total North ,500 18,100 47% Central 6,900 3,900 10,800 28% South 6,300 6,300 16% West 100 2,900 3,000 8% Total 7,600 30,600 38, % As % of Total 20% 80% 100% *All but West via YMM. Represents only portion of total commercial traffic.

34 Expected Passenger Movements by Sub-Region 35,000 Weekly Passenger Movements 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 20,000 18,100 14,800 11,800 10,800 9,400 6,300 5,100 3,500 3,000 1, North Central South West

35 Total Workforce, Production and Passenger Movements On site Workforce & Passenger Movements 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 76,500 71,600 54,200 38,500 38,200 27, Production (Mbpd) Onsite Workforce Passenger Movements (Weekly) Production (Mbpd)

36 Current and Forecasted Passenger Movements - Annual 2,500,000 Annual Passenger Movements 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 1,591,000 1,088, , , Public Airports Private Aerodromes

37 Estimated Number of Workforce Private Flights Study Sub region # Flights 2013 # Flights 2023 Weekly Annual As % of Total Weekly Annual As % of Total North ,440 59% ,000 56% Central 40 2,100 11% 45 2,300 5% South 100 5,200 27% ,400 23% West % 140 7,300 16% Total , % , % Notes: Caution, high level estimates derived from extrapolations of limited data sets. Private flights refer to aircraft flying directly to/from private aerodromes (with a small segment also using YMM does not include commercial flights through YMM.

38 AOSA Private Aerodromes Sub region Code Aerodrome Name Projects Using North CAL4 Shell Albian Shell (MRM, JPM); Imperial (K) CYNR Horizon CNRL (H) CFG6 Suncor Firebag Suncor (FB, FH); Husky (S) Central CER4 Mildred Lake Syncrude (ML) South CET2 Leismer StatoilHydro (L, C); Cenovus (CL) CRL4 Kirby Lake Devon (JF) CFN6 Primrose CNRL (K) CCL3 Christina Lake MEG (CL) West CFT8 Pelican Lake Cenovus (GR)

39 Current Private Flights by Day of the Week M 73 T 86 W 73 Tr 86 F 24 Sa 6 Su 12 Daily Private Flights (Incoming & Outgoing)

40 Other Factors Other Factors Potentially Affecting Aviation Levels Company or project specific strategic plans (eg. Shift redesigns, staff deployment in the region, etc.) Repurposing the existing terminal at YMM to a charterspecific, corporate / workforce aviation terminal Completion of the new YMM passenger terminal Construction of a new road corridor east west between Fort McMurray and Wabasca (as per CRISP study) Construction of new highway corridors north of Fort McMurray (as per CRISP study) Widening and bridge improvements along Hwy 881 Completion of Twinning of Hwy 63 (from Grasslands to Fort McMurray) Up to 10% increase in flying Up to 10% decrease in flying No change

41 Key Findings While oil sands workforce passenger movements are expected to increase for both public airports and private aerodromes, the relative share accounted for by private aerodromes would rise from 75% in 2013 to 80% in Current industry plans indicate this growth may likely result in the development of only two additional aerodromes in the entire region Industry expects minimal change to forecasted private aviation activity levels in the event of road and public airport improvements in the region

42 Complex Workforce Environment Galaxy Diagram Contractors Association Continuity of construction Gov. of Alberta Land Release Petroleum HR Council RMWB Gov. of Canada Temp. Foreign Workers Helmets to Hardhats WB Apprenticeship Forum GOA Energy WF Committee Chamber of Commerce Multi-Company Strategies Recruiting for select supply needs Camps Fly in/fly out Bussing Relocation of work Scheduling High Cost of Labour Professional Dev. Groups Non-Profit Sector Workforce Multi-Company Efforts Skill Shortages Construction Owner s Ass. Provioncial Nominee Program Gov. of Alberta AB Coalition for Action AB Enterprise Group RAP Program Keyano NAIT/SAIT Portage College Lakeland College Athabasca Univ. Apprenticeship Programs Oil Sands Safety Ass. Colleges Trades Unions Careers/Next Generation Building Trades Council Vocational Education Red Seal WB Apprenticeship Forum NADC = Industry Driven = Industry has Influence = Other Atha. Tribal Council Women Building Futures Petroleum HR Council TILMA Apprenticeship Alberta 42

43 Thank You! For more information: Reegan McCullough Executive Director Phone:

Current Economic Climate. May 7, 2015 Presentation to ROABA

Current Economic Climate. May 7, 2015 Presentation to ROABA Current Economic Climate May 7, 2015 Presentation to ROABA Overview Role of OSCA Business environment and trends Working with change OSCA s Vision To pursue innovative solutions that help to build thriving