Oil Sands: Forecast Update. Date: March 20, 2009

Transcription

1 Oil Sands: Forecast Update Date: March 20, 2009

2 Athabasca Oil Sands Area Status of Oil Sands Projects Under Construction/Approved/Application (Jan. 2009) Total potential bitumen production for projects currently: Under construction 207,000 bpd Under ERCB approval 1,324,000 bpd Under regulatory application 1,600,000 bpd Projects Under Construction Status Est. Start Up Barrels/day Devon - Jackfish Insitu Ph. 2 Construction ,000 EnCana - Christina Lk. Insitu Ph. 1C Construction ,000 MEG Energy - Christina Lk Reg. Proj. Insitu Ph. 2A Construction ,000 Suncor - Voyageur and Firebag insitu Ph. 3 Construction (suspended) TBD (was 2012) Shell - Exp 1 (Jackpine Mine Ph. 1A/MRM facilities) Construction ,000 StatoilHydro - Leismer Demo Insitu Construction ,000 Projects- ERCB Approved Status Est. Start Up Barrels/day Shell - Jackpine Mine Ph. 1B Approved /delayed TBD (was ) 200,000 CNRL - Horizon 2/3 Approved/delayed TBD 110,000 Petro-Canada - Fort Hills Mine Ph. 1 and debottleneck Approved /delayed TBD (was 2011) 191,000 Opti/Nexen - Long Lake Phase 2 Approved /delayed TBD (was 2013) 70,000 Imperial - Kearl Mine Ph. 1,2,3 Approved ,000 Husky - Sunrise insitu Ph. 1-4 Approved ,000 Connacher - Great Divide Pod 2 (Algar) Approved /delayed TBD (was 2009) 10,000 ConocoPhillips - Surmont Ph. 2 Approved ,000 EnCana - Christina Lake Insitu Ph. 1D Approved ,000 Petro-Canada - Meadow Cr. Insitu Ph. 1 & 2 Approved TBD 80,000 Petro-Canada - McKay River insitu Ph. 2 Approved ,000 Note: Even approved projects that have not officially deferred or delayed are experiencing delays and the their timing is not clear Data source: adapted from Strategy West Jan Under Application Athabasca Oil Sands - MacKay insitu CNRL - Kirby insitu Ph. 1 EnCana - Foster Cr. insitu 1F EnCana-Borealis Insitu Ph. 1 Enerplus Kirby - insitu Ph. 1 Husky - McMullen pilot Ph. 1 Suncor - Voyageur Mine Ph 1 Suncor - Firebag Insitu Ph.4-6 Suncor - Debottleneck Ph.3 Sunshine Oilsands-Harper CSS Shell - Jackpine Min Ph. 2 Shell - Pierre River Mine Under Application Korea National - Black Gold Ph.1 Laracina -Saleski insitu pilot Laracina -Germain insitu pilot MEG Christina Lk- insitu Ph. 2B-3B Nexen/Opti-Long Lk S. Ph.1/2 Petrobank-May R. insitu Ph. 1 Total - Northern Lights Mine (withdrawn) Total - Joslyn Mine Ph. 1 & 2 Total - Joslyn Insitu Ph. 3A Serrano - Blackrod insitu pilot StatoilHydro - Kai Kos De Seh Value Creation- Terre de Grace insitu 1

3 Despite setbacks, oil sands production expected to increase TOTAL 08 Forecast 1, , , ,671.6 Current Forecast 1, , , ,416.9 Difference k k k k Actual Bitumen Production Original Estimated Bitumen Production (January, 2008) Adjusted Estimated Bitumen Production (January 26, 2009) 1 Bitumen forecast for all Alberta oil sands projects original estimate (January, 2008) and adjusted estimate per public announcements (January 26, 2009) Source: CAPP and Nichols Applied Management 2

4 Combined oil sands expenditures: historical and estimated 1 Construction Capital Operating Costs Spent Forecast Revised Forecast Difference $62 B $79 B $33 B $46B $40 B $49 B $48 B $1B TOTAL $102 B $128 B $81 B $47B Capital: $12.8 Billion Operating: $17.9 Billion Actual Construction Capital Expenditures Actual Operating Expenditures Original Estimated Construction Capital Expenditures (Jan. 08) Original Estimated Operating Expenditures (Jan. 08) Adjusted Estimated Construction Capital Expenditures (Jan. 26, 09) Adjusted Estimated Operating Expenditures (Jan. 26, 09) construction capital expenditure estimate for all Alberta oil sands projects, including related pipeline, upgrader and co generation projects original estimates (January, 2008) and adjusted (January 26, 2009) per public announcements. Source: Construction Capital: CAPP and Nichols Applied Management, Operating Expenditure Nichols Study 3

5 Slower growth in permanent operations jobs estimated Estimate of permanent operations jobs in the Wood Buffalo region Does not include construction jobs or contractors Year 2007 New Jobs 2009 New Jobs Difference , ,893 1, , Total Source: Nichols Applied Management Study 4

6 Projected population growth has shrunk to 2.2% / yr OSDG 04 forecast population for 07 was 67,391 (2007 Census: 66,137) Reduction in growth from 8%/yr to 2.2%/yr to 2010 Camp population not included but has also declined dramatically OSDG s population forecast process has been approved by a third party audit performed by Deloitte Touche Source: Nichols Applied Management 5

7 OSDG members continue to invest significantly in the community $12 million donated in 2007 within the RMWB and $11.5 million in 2006 including: $2.5 million to MacDonald Island recreation facility $2.5 million to Timberlea Athletic Park $750,000 donation to MRI campaign $200,000 to Leadership Wood Buffalo Ongoing support for key community service organizations including: United Way (Fort McMurray is per capita leader in Canada) Keyano College Northern Lights Regional Health Centre YMCA of Wood Buffalo Day Care More than $52 million donated over the past 10 years. 6

8 Aboriginal participation and opportunities in oil sands development are substantial Aboriginal Companies value of contracts in 2007 $606 million Aboriginal Companies value of contracts $2.6 billion Aboriginal employees in permanent jobs in ,500+ Contributions to Aboriginal communities in 2007 $3.6 million Athabasca Tribal Council APCA funding 2007 $1.6 million Industry Relations Corporations funding 2007 $8 million 7

9 Environment - Land 8

10 Environment Water Total Annual Net Water Allocation of the Athabasca River represents less than 3.2% of flow, compared to: 37% North Saskatchewan River (Edmonton) 60% Oldman River (Southern Alberta) 65% Bow River (Calgary) Oil sands industry net water allocation is 2.2% of flow Industry has consistently used less than its allocated amount There has been a decrease in the overall amount of water used in mining over the past 30 years of oil sands development. Saline/brackish water use in in situ operations is the norm Oil sands mining operations recycle more than 80% of the fresh water used. Cooling tower evaporation accounts for 30% of any lost water which is returned to the hydrologic cycle. Intense sampling of water reveals no change in naturally occurring contaminants from oil sands development. Industry is constantly researching ways to further reduce water use. It makes sense from an environmental, social and business perspective. 9

11 Environment Air The oil sands industry has reduced NO x and SO 2 emissions on a per barrel basis since the beginning of oil sands production Air quality in the Fort McMurray Wood Buffalo region rated good or better nearly 90% of the time, consistently higher than major cities like Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton The Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) operates 14 active and 14 passive air monitoring stations with real time air quality data available via the internet 24/7 The Oil Sands currently account for 5% of Canada s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions or 0.1% of global emissions Barring significant change, the Oil Sands could grow to 8% of Canada s GHG emissions by 2015 From a full life cycle or Wells to Wheels perspective, production methods account for approximately 15% of the total carbon output from an Oil Sands barrel. The majority of the carbon is produced by end use combustion. 10

12 Environment - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Canada s Oil Sands currently account for less than 5% of Canada s GHG emissions or ~ 1/10th of 1% of global total Source: CAPP 11

13 GHG emissions: From Wells to Wheels Oil Sands production vs. other sources (full cycle basis) 6,000 5,000 kg CO2E/1000L fuel 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Brent Canadian Light Saudi Light* North American Import Crude Basket Oil Sands Venezuela* Nigerian Forcados* Combustion Transportation Refining Production Source: T.J. McCann & Assoc. & OSDG

14 Wood Buffalo major regional challenges Uncertain economic climate Environmental issues Industry has consistently reduced water use, GHG, SO 2 and NO x emissions on a per barrel basis Industry is strongly monitored and regulated New technology is constantly researched and applied Industry needs to improve communication Aboriginal relations maintain and increase opportunities Demand on infrastructure i.e. housing, transportation, utilities, health care Skilled labour availability recruitment and retention 13

15 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking information. Actual results could differ materially due to market conditions, changes in law or government policy, changes in operating conditions and costs, changes in project schedules, operating performance, demand for oil and gas, commercial negotiations or other technical and economic factors. For more information contact: The Oil Sands Developers Group Franklin Avenue Fort McMurray, AB T9H 4G8 Canada Ph: