December Alberta and Strathcona are predicting:

Transcription

1 December 2017 Alberta and Strathcona are predicting:

2 Agenda 1. Municipal Election Major themes for our area: Macro view world events, Canada and Alberta Metro Edmonton economic outlook 3. Census updates - Strathcona County 4. What s new AIH and recent data? 12/6/2017 2

3 Municipal Election Results New Mayor Rod Frank Ward One Robert Parks Ward Two Dave Anderson* Ward Three Brian Botterill* Ward Four Bill Tonita Ward Five Paul Smith* Ward Six Linton Delainey* Ward Seven Glen Lawrence Ward Eight Katie Berghoffer 12/6/2017 *Incumbent 3

4 Tax Rate Dollar Decrease /6/2017 4

5 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 12/6/2017 5

6 Economic outlook 2018 and beyond 12/6/2017 6

7 Loonie and the price of oil 12/6/ The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada

8 Price of Oil 12/6/2017 8

9 $53 USD for 2017 $58 USD for 2018 $70 USD for * 12/6/ *Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

10 13,000 new jobs Edmonton CMA, since beginning of year 12/6/

11 CENSUS 12/6/

12 Population 98,044 70,618 urban 27,467 rural 99,600* 12/6/ census results

13 Alberta Population Statistics Cities Calgary 1,235,171* Edmonton 899,447* Red Deer 99,832* Lethbridge 96,828* St. Albert 64,645 Medicine Hat 63,018 Grande Prairie 55,032 Airdrie 61,842 Spruce Grove 33,640 Ft. Sask 24,569 * Counties/Special Municipality Wood Buffalo 116,407 Strathcona 95,597 Projected ,600* Rocky View 38,055 Parkland 30,568 Grande Prairie 20,347 Sturgeon 19,578 Red Deer 18,351 Leduc 13,524 Yellowhead 10,469 Lamont 3,872 Source: Municipal Affairs pop. List 2016, *Census /6/

14 Strathcona Overview

15 Work Commute 65% Residents 50% Non-residents 12/6/ census results

16 Average Total One-Family Household Incomes $ $171, % of total households in Strathcona County had income of $125,000 or higher 12/6/ McSweeney report

17 Youth and seniors /6/2017 census results 17

18 Demographic Information 12/6/

19 Demographic Information 12/6/

20 Demographic Information 12/6/

21 RESIDENTIAL 12/6/

22 Oct. 12/6/ , Maxwell Realty 22

23 12/6/ Savona

24 12/6/ Bedford Village

25 25 Waybury Park

26 12/6/ Hillshire

27 12/6/ Tisbury Crossing

28 12/6/ Salisbury Village

29 12/6/ Cambrian Crossing

30 12/6/ Bremner

31 12/6/ North Summerwood

32 COMMERCIAL 12/6/

33 Commercial permit values 12/6/

34 Commercial permit activity As of 12/6/2017 April

35 Office leasing TOTAL 1.4 million sf VACANT 400,000 sf VACANCY RATE 28.51% Source: 12/6/2017 Colliers Q1 35

36 12/6/

37 12/6/ The Market at Centre in the Park

38 12/6/ Cameron Developments Market in the Park

39 12/6/ Savona

40 12/6/ Sherwood Common

41 12/6/ Emerald Hills

42 12/6/ Salisbury Gate

43 12/6/ Aspen Plaza

44 12/6/ Emerald Hills

45 12/6/ Buckingham Business Park

46 Buckingham Business Park Car Wash Xpress Lane Car Wash 12/6/

47 12/6/ Sandman Signature Hotel

48 12/6/ Towne Place Suites by Marriott

49 12/6/ Four Points by Sheraton

50 12/6/ Superstore retail

51 New and upcoming 12/6/

52 INDUSTRIAL 12/6/

53 Industrial leasing TOTAL 4,025,800 sf VACANT 367,908 sf VACANCY RATE 9.14% Source: 12/6/2017 Colliers Q1 53

54 Price of oil and project economics Current price of oil is around $45 to $60 USD Project economics for Greenfield open pit mining and upgrader in the range of $105 US bpd Project economics for SAGD is around $65-$85 US bpd Most producers are paid in $US and pay their expenses in $CDN Major firms looking to increase some capital spending 2017 Current estimates for break even Oilsands US$35 to US$38 per barrel Current estimates for break even shale production US$29-39 per barrel Carbon tax of $30 per tonne equals somewhere between $0.75 to $4 per barrel 12/6/

55 CAPP outlook for oil production GLOBAL NET OIL IMPORTS: CANADIAN OIL SANDS & CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION Source: 12/6/2017 Derived from IEA data. IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, New Policies Scenario 55

56 Oilsands areas in Alberta and Sask WESTERN CANADA OIL SANDS PRODUCTION 12/6/

57 Refineries in Western Canada 683,000 Plus 16,000 bpd added 12/6/

58 Updates for oil demand and products 12/6/

59 Strathcona Industrial Area (SIA) 12/6/

60 12/6/ Proposed Cogeneration site

61 Keyera and Kinder Morgan Project 12/6/2017 Total value of JV projected at $660 million 61

62 Kinder Morgan Rail Yard SIA 12/6/

63 Summary of Projects - SIA Keyera Rail Terminal Kinder Morgan and Keyera Tank Terminal Project Imperial Oil Co-generation plant Kinder Morgan Pipeline Bridge 12/6/

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65 8. Keyera Energy Limited 12/6/

66 1. Interpipe Limited PDH and PP Plant

67 12/6/

68 2. Air Products Hydrogen Plant Value $300 million opened July 7, 2016 Full time jobs estimated 40 Project Methodology 100%

69 Air Products New Hydrogen Plant - NWR

70 4 MEG Stonefell Terminal 900,000 barrels of storage Filling up with diluent and bitumen Pipeline to Cenovus Terminal Lamont Project value $250 million

71 4 MEG Energy Land purchase from Statoil Constructing a Hi-Q process test plant Lamont in the near future Bitumen Processing for pipeline Considering a diluent recovery unit in SC Interesting paper from U of C Public Policy about partial upgrading in Canada

72 MEG Energy Land Purchase May 15, 2013

73 1. Inter Pipeline Limited Installation of approximately 50 km of 24 inch pipeline and facilities to transport diluent This pipeline will provide 700,000 barrels per day of diluent supply to the Lamont station Expansion of the Sherwood Park operations centre with over 125 operators 12/6/

74 6 ATCO Energy Solutions Cavern Storage development for natural gas liquids (NGL) New Industrial Water facility opened July 15, /6/

75 7 ATCO Power Generation New 400 MW Gas Generation Station Combined cycle Project value estimated at $800 million Construction jobs: 200 Full time: 30 Project Methodology 70% Subject to market conditions and final board approval, government policy

76 8 Trans Canada Pipeline and Heartland Terminal Three projects: Storage Tanks - 6 Grand Rapids Pipeline Project value estimated: $300 million Construction has started on the 20 and 36 line between AIH and SIA

77 9 Pembina Diluent Centre 12/6/

78 Keyera has purchased the land from Sasol 78

79 Construction storage Expansion One Shell Upgrader Shell Chemicals Shell Refinery Shell Canada Limited opened the Quest (CCS) project $1.4 billion. Results are exceeding expectations. The debottlenecking project is finished adding another 16,000 bpd. 79

80 Canadian Natural Resources and Royal Dutch Shell Group Oilsands Asset Purchase Net consideration of US$7.25 billion $9.79 billion CDN Athabasca Oil Sands Project CNRL purchasing upstream assets from Royal Dutch Shell Group The total purchase price including nonoperating leases was in the range of $12.74 Billion CNRL will become operator of Athabasca Oilsands Project (ASOP) taking over Shell 60% majority ownership. CNRL and Shell will acquire Marathon Oil 20% CNRL will be adding 3100 employees including 2,760 at the mine, 110 in the Peace River Region and 230 in Calgary Shell Scotford Shell will continue to operate Upgrader, Refinery, Quest and Shell Chemicals CNRL will acquire 70% owner of Scotford Upgrader Shell will continue to own Scotford Refinery and chemical plants Upon closing of the transactions and additional further considerations, Shell may swap its 50% interest of MOCC for 20% interest in Scotford Upgrader and Quest CCS project Shell will continue to own the land 80

81 14 Enbridge Pipelines Expansion projects in Strathcona County: Woodland Expansion project linking Kearl Lake Oil Sands to Enbridge Main terminal at 379,000 bpd to 800,000 bpd Edmonton to Hardisty line completed and in service 36 pipeline Line 3 replacement to US approved by Canadian Government From Hardisty Ab to Superior WI 1031 miles or (1.660 km.) Project value $7.5 billion 12/6/

82 Heartland Sulphur Terminal 12/6/

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85 Pipelines and impact on Strathcona Existing and proposed Canadian and U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines 12/6/ Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

86 12/6/ IEA is predicating a 31% increase in global energy consumption driven by non-oedc countries like India and China Renewables might make up 6% Natural gas is predicted to rise 49% Oil increases by 12% As a group, fossil fuels continue to meet 74% of the worlds energy needs.

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88 There are two ways of spreading light: to be the candle or the mirror that reflects it. Edith Wharton For more information, please contact: Gerry Gabinet, Director Economic Development & Tourism Shane Olson, Manager Commercial Development Sean McRitchie, Manager Industrial Development 12/6/

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