Economic Cycles Continue Economic Update Sherwood Park & District Chamber. of Commerce. January 21, 2015

Transcription

1 Economic Cycles Continue Economic Update Sherwood Park & District Chamber Gerry Gabinet, Director Randy Richards, Manager, Commercial Development Tyler Westover, Manager Industrial Development Economic Development & Tourism Strathcona County of Commerce January 21, 2015

2 Agenda 1. Who we are: 2. What we are: 3. What s new in Retail? 4. What s new in office? 5. Project Update for AIH 6. Heavy Industry Information and Perspectives 7. Summary and projections 1/21/2015 2

3 1/21/2015 3

4 1/21/2015 4

5 1/21/2015 5

6 Top 20 Tax Payers Total Municipal Tax Collected Total by Top 20 (52.1%) Top 14 in Energy ( 49.6 %) Top 6 in Commercial Real Estate (2.5 %) Non residential 64%/ Residential 36% Tax Split 180 million 93.8 million 89.3 million 4.5 million Municipal 1/21/2015 6

7 Alberta Population Stats Cities Calgary 1,195,194* Edmonton 877,926* Red Deer 98,585* Lethbridge 93,004* St. Albert 61,466 Medicine Hat 61,180 Grande Prairie 55,032 Airdrie 49,560 Spruce Grove 27,875 Ft. Sask 21,795 Counties/Special Municipality Wood Buffalo 116,407 Strathcona 92,490 Rocky View 38,055 Parkland 30,568 Grande Prairie 20,347 Sturgeon 19,578 Red Deer 18,351 Leduc 13,524 Yellowhead 10,469 Lamont 3,872 1/21/ Source: Municipal Affairs pop. List 2013, *Census 2014

8 Stats Canada Update February 2012 Canada 5.9% Alberta 10.8% Edmonton 11.2% Calgary 10.9% Strathcona 12.1% Edmonton CMA 11.8% Calgary CMA 12.9% Strathcona 92,490 Sherwood Park 64,733 Rural 27,757 Growth 9,979 Urban 13.9% Rural 8.2% Total 12.1% Last 20 years 62.9% Average rate 2.45% Since 2006 Yellowhead County Lethbridge County 97,500 Projected /21/2015 8

9 Metro Region: Population1.2 million 1/21/2015 9

10 1/21/

11 1/21/

12

13 1/21/

14 Average Apartment / Townhouse Rent 14

15 Residential Rental Vacancy Rates 15

16 Edmonton Suburban Rental Universe October 2014 This does not include rented condominium ownership units estimated at 30% or 1400 rented units

17 Annualized Industrial Permit Activity to December 31 17

18 Annualized Commercial Building Permit Activity to December 31 18

19 Annualized Single Family Housing Starts to December 31st 19

20 Retail Market Update New inventory added in ,169 sq.ft. Completed and occupied 53,400 Completed and vacant 20,769 Total retail million sq.ft. Total retail million sq.ft. Vacancy rate 4.4% for non committed buildings New hotels and car dealers 1,000,000 sq.ft. 20

21 2009 to 2013 Retail Comparison At December Annual Retail Purchases 1.04 Billion 1.34 billion Occupied Floor Area 2,558,206 3,118,693 Vacant Space Inventory 17, ,635 Outflow Estimates 34% 23% Inflow Estimates 7.9% 9.6% Average outflow per day $826,301 $624,000 Combined Weighted Outflow 29% 17% Additional Space Demand 345,106 90,427 1/21/

22 Industrial Real Estate Q-3 Source Colliers 1/21/

23 Office Leasing Data Q-3 Source: Avison Young 1/21/

24 Broadmoor Heritage Plaza 1/21/

25 1/21/

26 Baseline Village Redevelopment 1/21/

27 Baseline Village Concept Occupancy Underway 1/21/

28 Baseline Village Site Plans 1/21/

29 Buckingham Business Park - Wexford Also watch for potential : Hotel Auto Dealers others sold P sold sold P sold 1/21/

30 Pembina Pipelines Buckingham Park Pembina Pipeline Operations Centre and Warehouse 85,000 sq.ft.- 40,000 sq.ft. office and 45,000 sq.ft, warehouse 1/21/

31 Nerval Holdings Buckingham Park 1/21/

32 Chester Developments Buckingham Park 1/21/

33 Canadian Hydrovac Buckingham Park 1/21/

34 Sherwood Business Park 1/21/

35 LEDR Developments Millennium Ridge

36 Professional Building 60,000 Sq.ft

37 Provincial Avenue 50,000 sq.ft

38 Portage Place 46,000 sq. ft

39 NE 10 Conceptual Plan 6 lots under contract

40 Sandman Signature Hotel Concept 1/21/

41 New Sandman Hotel Concept 1/21/

42 Emerald Drive Development /21/

43 WAM Emerald Hills Center New for 2015 Canadian Tire

44 Lakeland Drive Conceptual 1/21/

45 Emerald Corner 1/21/

46 Emerald Hills Urban Village 1/21/

47 208 home rental apartment project comprised of four 4 storey wood frame buildings wood-park/emerald-hills 1/21/

48 Hillshire Proposed 1/21/

49 Hillshire Development Concept Timing: Size: 129 acres Low density -38 acres Medium -28 Medium/High 4.8 High-1.65 Commercial Population: 2,850

50 Salisbury Village Aerial 1/21/

51 Salisbury Village- Development Concept

52 Salisbury Gate Commercial 1/21/

53 Salisbury Proposed Multi Family 1/21/

54 Cambrian Revised Concept Plan Approx: 400 acres Total Population: 11,447 (proposed) Build out: years Two Developers:

55

56 Qualico North Summerwood ASP 1/21/

57 Sochastsky Concept ASP 1/21/

58 Baseline Road 1/21/

59 Yellowhead 1/21/

60 At Broadmoor 1/21/

61 Nearing Sherwood Drive Anthony Henday Video 1/21/

62 Strathcona Industrial Area (SIA) 1/21/

63 Price of Oil 1/21/

64 Opec producing 30 million per day global production 75 million per day 1/21/

65 Source: Matthew Hulbert/European Energy Review /21/

66 Price of Oil and Project Economics Current price of oil is around $50-80 USD Project economic for Greenfield open pit mining and upgrader in the range of $105 US bpd Project economics for SAGD is around $65-$85 US bpd Most producers are paid in $US and pay their expenses in $Cdn. Major firms cutting capital spending for 2015 Projections towards the future? $70-95 US bpd 1/21/

67 Comments about Price of Oil Economics Saudi Arabia and Opec still producing and adding to total world supply Russia needs price of oil around $120 per barrel value of ruble declined 45% Oil Demand in China and Europe down Saudi Arabia using oil as geopolitical weapon Increase of Iraq supply 4 million barrels per day Types of oil needed in US Gulf Coast 1/21/

68 1/21/ Source: CERI

69 How sustainable is Cdn Oil and Gas at US$50 per barrel? Source: CanOils /21/

70 Assumptions Source: CanOils /21/

71 Rail Terminal in Strathcona County Kinder Morgan and Esso $270 million project (SIA) unit car trains AIH two possibly three Lamont County Cannex operating 1/21/

72 Kinder Morgan Rail Terminal Project A crude by rail loading terminal for up to 3 unit trains/day (200,000 to 250,000 bbls/day). Located in Strathcona County Heavy Industrial Zoning Kinder Morgan and Imperial Oil announce on Dec.13, 2013 Open to third party crude volumes.

73 1/21/

74 1/21/

75 AIH Project Strathcona Portion Shell Quest under construction Air Products-under construction Pembina- DP MEG Energy - DP Atco Power- delayed Atco Storage- DP Keyara-DP Trans Canada Oil Tanks and Pipelines- under construction IPF pipeline under construction Sasol- FEED Study 2016 Williams PDH Plantgrading permit Enbridge Pipeline- 1/21/

76 Major Events Strathcona County 2015 Mayor State of County Address Feb. 18 Great Canadian Trade Fair April Provincial Syncro Swimming Classic April Junior Handball Provincials May Senior National Team Handball May 20 th Anniversary of Broadmoor Park and spry park July 1 st Road to Rio National Olympic Wrestling team selection Dec /21/

77 Potential Risks 2015 and Beyond In Alberta the Opex is projected the same as the Capex for the first time ever. Price of Oil for major projects Delay in major pipeline projects Changing world geo politics Change in capital spending for 2015 by major firms Project execution for mega projects Locally pricing and availability of serviced industrial land 1/21/

78 Predictions for 2015 GDP growth for Alberta 2% GDP growth for Edmonton CMA 3.0% Housing price Strathcona County Urban $460,000 Rural $600,000 Condo $320,000 Apartment rental rate $1300 per month two bedroom Price of oil Q--4 US$65-75 per barrel WTI* * Subject to Supply- demand and geopolitics 1/21/

79 Recent Updates Council has approved a 2.58% tax dollar increase for 2015 budget Plans for IHO review of the SIA and AIH Strathcona portion for 2015 New taxi cab bylaw for July 2015 Census for Strathcona County 2015 Bank of Canada reduce interest rate to 0.75% Jan. 21 1/21/

80 You're going to come across people in your life who will say all the right words at all the right times. But in the end, it's always their actions you should judge them by." Nicholas Sparks For more information, please contact: Gerry Gabinet, Director Economic Development & Tourism Randy Richards, Manager Commercial Development Tyler Westover, Manager Industrial Development 1/21/