Ben Brunnen, Vice President, Oil Sands January 19, Upstream Oil and Gas Industry Outlook Presentation to Alberta s Industrial Heartland
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1 Ben Brunnen, Vice President, Oil Sands January 19, 2017 Upstream Oil and Gas Industry Outlook Presentation to Alberta s Industrial Heartland
2 2 About CAPP and Canada s Oil and Gas Industry Large and small producer companies and associate members Represent about 85% of Canada s natural gas and crude production Largest private sector investor in Canada ($53 billion in 2015) Annual government revenues average $15 billion Employ approx. 440,000 in Canada (direct & indirect) Canada is the 5 th largest producer of natural gas globally Canada is the 6 th largest producer of crude oil globally
3 3 About Canada s Oil and Gas Industry
4 4 Oil & natural gas are part of our every day life
5 Top 10 World Crude Oil Producers in 2014 Russia Saudi Arabia United States China Canada Iraq Iran United Arab Emirates Kuwait Venezuela Sources: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration Crude oil including lease condensate Million Barrels per Day
6 Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country billion barrels Includes 166 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves Restricted (80%) Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 50% Other 50 % Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait UAE Russia Libya United States Nigeria Kazakhstan Qatar China Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec & AER 2015
7 7 Canada s Oil Sands 167 billion barrels recoverable At current economics and technology Well over 100 years of production 20% of resource is mineable Just under 3% of oil sands land area 80% of resource is drillable 97% of oil sands land area
8 8 Oil Sands Area Comparisons ,200 Area (square kilometres) ,919 90,462 0 Defined Oil Sands Area Oil Sands Leased Area 4,802 Oil Sands Mineable Area 760 Oil Sands Disturbed Area (Mining) Protected Areas in Alberta
9 9 Economic Context
10 01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 ' Crude Oil and Natural Gas prices Crude Oil Prices (WTI NYMEX) $US per barrel Natural Gas Prices (AECO Daily Spot Price) $Cdn/mcf
11 11 Economic Context: Oil Glut to Continue Through 2017 US Energy Information Administration anticipates production to exceed consumption till 2 nd half of 2017.
12 12 Economic Context: Prices Not Anticipated to Recover Quickly
13 Global North America Europe Latin America Middle East Russia/FSU Africa India/Asia/Australia Canada Global Investment Trends Upstream Sector 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2017/16 Source: Barclays Upstream Spending Survey 13
14 14 Investment and Production Forecast
15 E 2017F Capital Investment in the Upstream Sector $ Billions Oil sands Conventional Capital Investment - YOY% Change 2016/ /16 Oil Sands -30% -19% Conv. -35% +20% TOTAL -33% +3%
16 16 Canadian Production Eastern + Western Canada
17 17 Western Canada Oil Sands Production (Bitumen & SCO)
18 18 Western Canada Conventional Production
19 Total Wells Drilled in Western Canada 28,000 24,000 Dry/Susp. Gas Oil Yr/yr change in drilling: 2015: 49% 2016: -33% 2017: % E 2017F* 20,000 Alberta 2,891 1,850 2,230 British Columbia ,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 Saskatchewan 1,617 1,210 1,450 Manitoba * Based on 20% increase 2016E = 3, F = 4,200-4, E 2017F Source CAPP. Based on Rig Release
20 20 Market Opportunity
21 21 WCSB Pipeline Takeaway Capacity vs Supply Forecast
22 22 Canada and US: 2015 Crude Oil Receipts by Source
23 23 Western Canadian Crude Oil Demand: Actual 2015 and 2020 Forecast
24 24 Global Net Imports: 2014 to 2040
25 25 Our Biggest Client is our Biggest Competitor
26 26 Importing foreign oil into Canada
27 Infrastructure for Eastern Canada Gas Markets Source: GS3 Consulting 27
28 New Market Opportunities for W. Canadian Gas 28 Area of Oil Sands Deposit NGTL Westcoast PNG (Capacity approx: 110 MMcfd) Pacific Trail: Proposed (Kitimat LNG) Coastal GasLink: Proposed (LNG Canada) Prince Rupert Gas Trans: Proposed (Pacific Northwest LNG) Westcoast Connector: Proposed (Prince Rupert LNG) Potential LNG Export Demand Growing Oil Sands Demand Declining Traditional Market Demand
29 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 $US/MM btu Global Natural Gas Prices North America Europe Japan North America Europe Japan Source: World Bank
30 30 Discussion
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