The Great Economist Debate on Global Policy

Transcription

1 The Great Economist Debate on Global Policy Moderator: Amy Resnick, Editor, Pensions & Investments Teresa Ghilarducci, Director, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, Professor of Economics, The New School Megan E. Greene, Chief Economist and Managing Director Manulife Asset Management Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D., Founder and Chairman, Laffer Associates Stephen Moore, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, The Heritage Foundation

2 THE GREAT ECONOMIST DEBATE ON GLOBAL POLICY Stephen Moore Distinguished Visiting Fellow The Heritage Foundation

3 Total Percent Growth in Real GDP Reaganomics Vs. Obamanomics 35% 30% Recovery's Growth Gap vs. Reagan Reagan Recovery 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Current Recovery 0% Quarters After Recession End Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4 Millions of Jobs Reagan-style Recovery = 8.4 Million More Private Sector Jobs Reagan Recovery Current Recovery Months After Cycle Low for Private Sector Employment Source: BLS, JEC Staff, Job creation estimate Reagan-style recovery based on percentage gain over comparable period

5 Actual vs. Expected unemployment rate: Obama Stimulus Failed to deliver Source: "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan," 2009, president's Council of Economic Advisers; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department. Graphic: The Heritage Foundation, April 2015

6 America s Oil Boom

7 Jan-2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 Jul-2013 Aug-2013 Sep-2013 Oct-2013 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 Jan-2014 Feb-2014 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun-2014 Jul-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Dollars per Barrel, Oil Energy Costs Plummeting $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 Petroleum, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

8 Billions of barrels of oil equivalent Billions of barrels of oil equivalent 8 Total Production AMERICA S SOARING OIL & GAS OUTPUT 2.5 Growth in Production Since Oil & Gas 2 Oil & Gas Renewables other than hydro Renewables other than hydro The growth in oil & gas production in the eight years exceeds by nearly two fold the total current production of energy from all renewable resources (excluding hydro dams). Most recent annual data through Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

9 Red States Vs Blue States 80% 70% Jobs Growth December % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Texas Florida USA California New York Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey

10 Economic Outlook: Policy Affects Growth TOP TEN BOTTOM TEN Rank State Rank State 1 Utah 41 Pennsylvania 2 North Dakota 42 Maine 3 Indiana 43 Montana 4 North Carolina 44 California 5 Arizona 45 Oregon 6 Idaho 46 New Jersey 7 Georgia 47 Connecticut 8 Wyoming 48 Minnesota 9 South Dakota 49 Vermont 10 Nevada 50 New York Based upon equal-weighting of each state s rank in 15 policy variables. Source: ALEC-Laffer State Economic Outlook Rankings, 2014

11 Texas: 1.1 Million Jobs Created Rest of the U.S.: 350,000 Jobs Lost From late July 2014

12 The Greatest Story Never Told

13 Taxmageddon Tax Rates Under Obama in 2013 Death Tax Old Rate Obama Rate 35% 40% Dividends 15% 24% Capital Gains 15% 24% Income tax rate 35% 41% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00%

14 Percentage of total Rich Pay More Than Their Fair Share 2012 Income and Income Tax Shares 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 38% 15% 10% 22% 5% 11% 0% Income Share Top 1% Bottom 50% Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics on Income 3% Income Tax Share

15 real interest rate on 10-year U.S bonds January 2003 to February 2015 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

16 Percent Bottom 95 Percent Pays Less than Top 1 Percent Top 1% share Bottom 95% Share Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics on Income, Number of Returns, Shares of AGI and Total Income Tax, AGI Floor on Percentiles in Current and Constant Dollars, and Average Tax Rates, Table 1. Available at:

17 Education and Medical Prices Skyrocket While Import Prices Drop CPI, Percent Change, Jan through April % 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Combined Central and Subcentral Government Corporate Tax Rate Central and Subcentral Government Corporate Tax Rate U.S. Combined Federal an U.S. Corporate Tax Rate v. Average for De High Corporate Taxes Make the U.S. Uncompetitive U.S. Corporate Tax Rate v. Average for Developed Countries 45 U.S. Corporate Tax Rate v. Average for Developed Countries 40 U.S. Combined Federal and State Tax Rate Note: The bars are the average tax rate in the rest of the world. Source: OECD Tax Policy Analysis

19 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Return of king dollar Dollar Index, June 2009 February 2015

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21 Great Economist Debate Megan Greene Chief Economist, Managing Director Manulife Asset Management

22 Global Future of Retirement - We live in an age of oversupply; there is a glut of debt, macro liquidity (if not market liquidity!), regulation, years (demographics), commodities and labor - Huge debt overhangs are preventing most governments from stimulating demand - Central bankers (unelected ones, at that) are the main policy and market drivers, pushing to corner more global aggregate demand with weaker currencies - The global macro environment will be characterized by low growth, low inflation and low rates for years to come - We can expect a bear flattening of the yield curve in North America. Lower interest rates mean lower discount rates and higher liabilities in the pension world - Monetary policy divergence may not last the biggest risk of liftoff is that it happens too soon and too quickly, in which case the Fed will have to loosen again

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25 The Great Economist Debate on Global Policy Teresa Ghilarducci Professor of Economics The New School for Social Research

26 Growth Factors Why the factor matters Labor Force Savings Rate Aggregate Demand and Extent of Inequality The aging workforce reduces the availability and utilization of human capital Investments are only somewhat affected by the stock of savings, which affects the quantity and quality of physical and entrepreneurial capital Demand and business confidence raises the expected rate of return on capital and labor inputs 26

27 Growth Predictions Source Predictions OECD 3.1 US Social Security Administration 2.1 Gordon,

28 Secular Supply Side Stagnation labor productivity GDP 28

29 Inequality and Slow Growth 2.5 growth in Real Per Capital Income growth in Real Per Capital Income 29

30 Sources of Gordon s Pessimism 2.5 How Future Growth Reduces From 2% to.2% Actual Subtract Subtract Lower Reduced Hours Pace of Education Subtract Inequality Dampens Demand Subtract Future Subtract Post Tax Increases 1972 Less G Innovation (Indoor Plumbing Beats IPad 30

31 Business are hoarding, not investing or adding to aggregate demand Net private investment as a share of the private capital stock, measured as a five-year moving average, fell from 3.8 percent during 2000 Walmart could have used 2014 $6.6 billion on repurchasing stock to increase pay of 825,000 workers $5.13 an hour 31

32 Implications for pension funds and pensions Elderly need buying power Respond to pressure for mandatory add-ons to Social Security and refundable tax credits Asset managers could be beneficiaries to 63 million more people saving for retirement. 32

33 The Great Economist Debate on Global Policy Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D. Founder and Chairman Laffer Associates

34 The Great Economist Debate on Global Policy Moderator: Amy Resnick, Editor, Pensions & Investments Teresa Ghilarducci, Director, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, Professor of Economics, The New School Megan E. Greene, Chief Economist and Managing Director Manulife Asset Management Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D., Founder and Chairman, Laffer Associates Stephen Moore, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, The Heritage Foundation