ECONOMIC UPDATE. Figure 1: Economic projections of the Federal Reserve. September 19, 2013 ASIA PACIFIC
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- Mervin Freeman
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1 ASIA PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE CIMB Analyst(s) LEE Heng Guie T () E hengguie.lee@cimb.com We could begin later this year. But even if we do that, the subsequent steps will be dependent on continued progress in the economy. So we are tied the data. We don't have a fixed calendar schedule. Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman US FOMC - No tapering yet The Fed delivered a positive surprise by keeping the status quo on its QE programme amid broad-based moderate economic improvement, in contrast market expectations of a tapering announcement. While this move provides some temporary respite for the market, it will lead prolonged market uncertainty as invesrs recalibrate expectations wards a tapering announcement during the next two FOMC meetings on 8-9 Oct and -7 Dec. Adding the uncertainty are the upcoming budget and debt-ceiling battles in Oct. Fed needs more time decide... Contrary market expectations of a tapering announcement, the Fed has decided keep its asset-purchase programme unchanged after the conclusion of a two-day meeting. The Fed decided await more evidence that economic progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Although this move provides some temporary respite for the market, it will cause prolonged market uncertainty as invesrs recalibrate expectations wards a tapering announcement during the next two FOMC meetings on 8-9 Oct and -7 Dec. Adding the uncertainty are the upcoming budget and debt-ceiling battles in Oct and the Fed chair selection process....amid still-decent economic data flows The Fed sees continued moderate economic growth amid some improvement in the labour market. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the housing secr has been strengthening. Nevertheless, the Fed downgraded this year's GDP growth estimate.-.3% from.3-.%. Its unemployment rate projection was roughly maintained at %. For, the Fed also revised down its GDP growth.9-3.% (3.-3.5% previously), while unemployment will be at.-.8% (.5-.8% previously). Focus on Fed's forward guidance Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the tapering plan was never a "preset course" and indicated that the Fed's plan taper this year is still on track, contingent on its assessment of the economic outlook. In our view, the Fed's interest-rate normalisation will be a lengthy process that could last well in 5, beginning with the tapering of the pace of QE3 and going on ending QE3 (sp purchasing completely), shrinking its balance sheet (either by running off positions or selling) and finally, gradually raising the Fed funds rate. Currently, the Fed has linked its interest-rate normalisation the unemployment rate (.5%), a threshold it has conditionally set begin raising interest rates. Figure : Economic projections of the Federal Reserve 3 5 Longer run New Old (Jun est.) New Old (Jun est.) New Old (Jun est.) New Old (Jun est.) Real GDP Unemployment rate PCE inflation Core PCE inflation IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
2 Figure : Fed keep rate at.-.5% for the foreseeable future % Jan-3 Mar- May-5 Jul- Sep-7 Nov-8 Jan- Mar- May- Jul-3 Fed funds target rate Fed funds discount rate SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB RESEARCH Figure 3: US Treasury yields rising % Jan- Jul- Jan-3 Jul- Jan- Jul-7 Jan-9 Jul- Jan- Jul-3 Y 5Y Y 3Y SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, CIMB RESEARCH Figure : More FOMC participants think the first rate hike come in 5 No. of participants Mar 3 Jun 3 Sep 3
3 Figure 5: Fed responses financial market events and recessions Fed responses financial market events and recessions Year(s) Event Recession - Oil crisis coupled with high government spending due Vietnam war 98 Recession - Oil crisis triggered by Iranian revolution 98-8 Recession - Tight monetary policy control high inflation Fed funds target rate 987 Sck-market crash on Oct 987 No target rate from 99-9 Recession - Collapse of savings and loans and restrictive monetary policy 998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis -3 Recession - Dot Com bubble burst, Sep terrorist attacks, accounting scandals 7 Subprime crisis fallout - housing recession 8 Downside risks growth, financial market stress 9 Economy enters recovery, financial secr recovers but banking secr still weak and unemployment rate exceeds % -3 Bumps in economic recovery, unemployment rate remains high, housing market still weak Period Quantum of rate cuts (bps) Frequency of rate cuts 3.% Jul % Apr-75.% Mar-8, % Jul-8.% May-8,5 8.5% Dec Oct 3 Nov % Jul % Dec-9 5.5% Aug % May-99.5% Dec % Jun-3 5.5% Sep-7 3.5% Dec-7.5% Jan % -.5% Oct-8 No change in rates; held at.% -.5% No change in rates; rates stay at.% -.5% for the foreseeable future Figure : The majority of Fed participants still expect the first rate hike only happen in 5, unchanged from the Jun meeting Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End 3 5 Longer run (%) Number of FOMC participants.5 7 (8) (5) ().5 - () () (-).75 5 (3). (3) 3 () (-).5 (-) ().5 - () (3) (-).75 5 (-). - () (-).5.5 (-).75 (-) 3. (3) 3.5 (-) () 3.5 () 3.75 (). (-) (9).5 (-) 3 (3).5 - (3) ( ) previous projections in Jun 3
4 Figure 7: Hisrical Fed actions and FOMC scheduled meetings in -5 Year Policy meeting dates Rate change (bps) Fed funds rate (%) Jan Dec Oct Sep Jul Jun Apr Mar Jan Dec Oct Sep No change Jul No change Jun No change Apr- May No change Mar No change Jan No change Dec No change Oct No change Sep No change Jul- Aug No change Jun No change Apr No change Mar No change Jan No change Dec No change Nov No change Sep No change Aug No change Jun No change Apr No change Mar No change Jan No change. -.5 SOURCES: BLOOMBERG, FEDERAL RESERVE, CIMB RESEARCH
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