AN ASSET CLASS WITH A YIELD: EMERGING MARKET DEBT

Transcription

1 AN ASSET CLASS WITH A YIELD: EMERGING MARKET DEBT For professional investors marketing communication L. BRYAN CARTER London, 22 March 2017

2 Trump has two lightening rods Recession ahead: exports and foreign direct investment immediately hit by Twitter effect NAFTA renegotiation and tariffs to impair already weak current account Deportations to create a labour and potential humanitarian crisis China has been Trump s number 1 target for unfair trade Exports to be attacked and risk of trade war could affect services Chance for China to reset trade and leadership position 2

3 Trump s impact on the rest of the world is benign High-growth Asia Commodity Latam Manufactured exports and immigration to the US are very low Terms of trade have benefitted enormously from Trump Group of countries already growing faster than China Trump accelerates move of industry and output to Southern Asia Endogenous growth unaffected 3

4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q US reflation is always good for emerging markets (EM) 14 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (%YOY) EM Real GDP Growth US Nominal GDP Growth Source: IMF IFS, 22/02/2017 4

5 Trump s win hit EM, still among best performers in 2016 Return across asset classes for 2016 and since US election US High Yield Corporates EM Frontier Commodities EM Corporates EMD Hard Currency EMD Local Currency (USD terms) S&P 500 EMD Local Currency (Local terms) European High Yield Corporates MSCI Emerging Markets (Local terms) MSCI Developed Markets (Local terms) European High Grade Corporates EMD JPM ELMI+ Index Nikkei 225 US Treasuries -5,00% 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% Calendar Year 2016 Since US Election Source: BNP Paribas, Bloomberg, JP Morgan, 10 th March 2017 Since US election shows 8 th November 2016 to 9 th March

6 EM is back REER Current Account GDP Growth Forecast Inflation YoY Forecast Current Level vs. 10Y Average (%) 2018 Forecast (%GDP) 2018 Forecast (%YoY) 2018 Forecast (%YoY) Brazil Colombia Russia South Africa Hungary Poland Romania Turkey Thailand Peru Chile Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, 28/2/2017 6

7 EM debt universe is large and growing 7,0 EM outstanding debt: USD 15 trillion EM External Sovereign EM External Corporates EM Local Government EM Local Corporates 6,0 5,5 6,0 5,9 6,2 5,9 5,9 5,8 6,2 6,1 5,0 4,0 3,5 4,0 4,2 3,0 2,9 2,0 1,0 0,0 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0, YTD Source: BNP Paribas, JP Morgan, March

8 $ billion $bn Demand side technicals are still supportive Emerging vs. mature markets: fund portfolio weights Emerging markets: valuation adjusted portfolio allocations % of global bond/equity allocations, dashed line: 08 to date avg. % of bond/equity allocations, dashed line: 08-to-date avg Mature Markets Bonds Equities Emerging Markets Source: EPFR, IIF estimates; includes mutual funds and ETFs, Source: IIF; includes mutual funds and ETFs, November IIF Tracker: total portfolio flows into EMs Annual flows into hard and local currency debt Total Flows IIF Portfolio Debt Flows Tracker Dec. and Jan. Estimates IIF Portfolio Equity Flows Tracker -35 janv. 15 juil. 15 janv. 16 juil. 16 janv. 17 Source: National Sources, Bloomberg, IIF, February US/European Mutual Funds Japanese Investment Trusts Strategic Mandates 8

9 YTD 2016F EM safer than high yield? EM Sovereign Defaults EMBIG Diversified Default Rate Country % Argentina % Ecuador % Cote d Ivoire % Belize % Argentina % Ukraine EM Sovereign Default Average: 2.22% Source: JP Morgan September % 15% 10% 5% 0% EM Corporate HY versus US Corporate HY default rates 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% EM Corporate Default Rates by Region EM Corporate HY US HY Source: JP Morgan as at 19 July 2016 Asia EM Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa Source: JP Morgan as at 11 July

10 Case study: long Gabon 2025 bonds For illustrative purposes only Gabon /6/25 Last Price Opposition leader demanded recount after incumbent President Ali Bongo was declared winner of a knife-edge presidential election US Presidential election result triggered undiscriminating downturn in EM and bond yields soared to record highs. No rationale for sharp widening and credit fundamentals unchanged so we doubled exposure Profits taken after bonds recovered from low point after US election, helped by oil price recovery Overweight removed. Position taken to market weight Total P&L: 5.4 bps Market weight and looking for further opportunities to re-invest /9/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /2/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/2017 Source: Bloomberg as at 22 February

11 Index Level Overweight local currency versus hard currency into Hard vs. Local Relative Return Hard currency outperforming local Local currency likely to outperform at this stage Local currency outperforming hard 70 Source: BNP Paribas Investment Partners, Bloomberg as at February

12 Parvest EMFI fund characteristics YTM Duration Sovereigns Quasi and Corporates Investment Grade High Yield Parvest Bond Best Selection World Emerging (Blended Strategy) 8.6% 6.5 years 67% 33% 48% 52% Parvest Bond World Emerging (Hard Currency Strategy) 6.1% 6.4 years 70% 30% 31% 69% Parvest Bond World Emerging Local (Local Currency Strategy) 7.4% 5.5 years 91% 9% 85% 15% Source; BNPP IP as at 28 th February 2017 Quality Ratings based on S&P ratings The above positions mentioned are for information purposes only and may be subject to change without notice. Please refer to the Prospectus and KIID guidelines for further information 12

13 AN ASSET CLASS WITH A YIELD: ASIAN BONDS For professional investors marketing communication ADELINE NG London, 22 March 2017

14 Asian USD bonds: 17 years of positive return A positive absolute performance in 17 of the last 19 years - including during previous Fed rate hike cycle Annualised return of +7.2% in USD, +6.5% in EUR and +7.3% in GBP since 1997 Year-to-date February 2017: +2.3% in USD, +1.7% in EUR and +1.7% in GBP Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Asian Dollar Bond Index until December 2015 and JACI from January 2016 onwards until December 2016 This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Past performance, any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 14 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

15 China USD Bonds: Another year of positive return in 2016 despite negative perception Over the last 3 years, China investment grade and high yield have delivered +18% and +27% respectively In particular, Chinese high yield property delivered +30% Source: JP Morgan Asia Credit Index, CSI 300, December 2016 Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance 15 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

16 What we monitor Pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB s tapering of asset purchases Fiscal and trade policies implemented by the Trump administration Politics: Elections in Europe (Netherlands, France, Germany) and UK Brexit position China GDP growth rate and political transition Asia s monetary and fiscal policies 16 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

17 Impact of US Fed fund rate cycle on Asian bonds Asian USD bonds return 3 Years Cumulative Returns ( ) Fed fund rate Fed Funds Rate (RHS) Fed Funds Rate Actual and Target (RHS) Asian bonds delivered positive returns in the previous and current rate hike cycles Total return (2004 to 2006) = 19.1% Total return (2015 to February 2017) = 11.3% Since 2013 Fed tapering tantrum, Asian bonds delivered better return *Source: HSBC ADBI, JP Morgan, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, February IG refers to Investment Grade and HY: refers to high yield This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 17 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

18 China: Growth target for 2017 at around 6.5% on the back of policy support Total fixed-asset investments are stabilising Contribution to GDP Key messages from National People s Congress: Fiscal deficit target set at 3% of GDP Monetary policy to remain neutral. Employment target at 11 million Structural reforms to continue including capacity reduction in coal and steel Net exports have not contributed to GDP growth since the global financial crisis State-led investment will have to sustain China s growth US trade deficit with China: USD 337 billion China s export to US accounts for 3.7% of its GDP Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, March 2017 This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Past performance, any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution 18

19 Asia has used monetary policy to support growth Monetary easing by Asian central banks Current Policy Rate Total Easing in Official Growth Forecast 2017 Official Inflation Forecast Asia still has more room to use traditional monetary policy China 4.35% - 6.5% 3.0% Hong Kong Linked exchange rate system - 1.8% 2.5% India 6.25% -50bp 7.1% 5.0% Indonesia 4.75% -75bp % % Korea 1.25% -25bp 2.5% 1.8% Malaysia 3.0% -25bp % 2.0%-3.0% Philippines 3.0% -* 6.5%-7.5% 3.3% Singapore Exchange rate policy Changed slope of NEER band to neutral % 1%-2% Taiwan 1.375% -37.5bp 1.87% 1.1% Thailand 1.50% - 3.6% 1.5% Asian governments expect stable growth with a benign inflation outlook in 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Central Banks websites, December 2016 * Change in interest rate policy regime 19 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

20 Asia: Fiscal policy toolkits Asian government debt is lower than that of key developed economies Asia has not increased its fiscal deficit since the Global Financial Crisis Source: Bloomberg, December 2016 Source: Projection by International Monetary Fund, October Positive number indicate increase of fiscal deficit. * Refers to Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan. Asia is expected to use fiscal policy to support growth in 2017 * Exclude Asia countries This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Past performance, any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 20 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

21 Global growth outlook is improving, Asia is still the highest growth region International Monetary Fund (IMF): 2017 growth forecast IMF: Economic activity to pick up pace in 2017 but uncertainty surrounding policy stance of the US administration China s GDP growth revised up to 6.5% from 6.3% on expected policy support Asia ex-japan GDP growth revised up to 6.4% from 6.3% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, January Any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the strategy / sector mentioned in this presentation For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution 21

22 Asia: High quality credit with no investment-grade defaults Investment-grade defaults by region Credit downgrade & upgrade rate by region In the investment-grade universe, there have been no defaults in Asia Pacific in the last five years In the high-yield universe, Asia has a historically lower default rate than its emerging market high-yield peers. Asia experienced five years of zero defaults in high-yield bonds in the last 15 years In 2017, the Asian high-yield corporate default rate is expected to be 2.0%, lower than the global high-yield default rate of 3.0%. Moody s has projected 2.5% and 5.0% for Europe and US high-yield, respectively Source: Moody s Corporate Debt Rating, January 2017 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution 22

23 Compared to developed market investment-grade bonds: Asian bonds provide carry at similar credit rating without extending duration Yield (%) Spread (Bps) Duration (Year) Volatility Asia Investment Grade Europe Investment Grade UK Investment Grade US Investment Grade Investors benefit from higher yield on a duration-adjusted basis and similar credit rating Source: HSBC Dollar Bond Index, JP Morgan Asia Credit Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, February For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

24 Asian bonds offer higher yield at incremental volatility *Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) Global Government Bond Index, BAML European Government Bond Index, JP Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI), February 2017 This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 24 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

25 Asian bonds offer attractive yield pick-up after hedging After deducting cost of hedging into EUR, average pick-up of 1.8% over last five years and 1.5% over the last 10 years *Source: BAML, JACI, December 2016 This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Any economic and market trend, prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. 25 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

26 Favourable technicals to provide support in 2017 Asian USD bond issuance Asian bonds are largely held by local Asian investors Largest amount of bond maturities in 2017 since the global financial crisis. About USD 121 billion of bonds mature in 2017 compared to USD 52 billion in 2016, a 230% increase. Net issuance in 2017 expected to fall by ~50% from USD 85 billion to USD 45 billion Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, ANZ, March For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

27 Our beliefs: Why invest in Asian bonds? Fundamentals Global monetary conditions remain accommodative: US rate gradual lift-off, ECB and BoJ to adopt easing monetary support and negative interest rates Trade protectionism remains uncertain but Asian growth is not significantly dependent on external trade. Asia has traditional monetary and fiscal policy flexibility which it has implemented to mitigate lower global growth concerns. Asian governments expect stable growth with benign inflation in 2017 All 10 Asian countries are investment grade^. Asia sovereign credit rating to remain stable. 80% of Asian bond universe is rated investment grade. Asian high-yield bonds have lower historical default rates but higher recovery value Valuation Asian bonds currently offer attractive carry compared to those in the US and Europe, at similar investment-grade credit quality and lower duration. Compared to emerging markets, Asian bonds have lower historical volatility and better riskadjusted returns Sentiment Favourable demand and supply technicals to support Asian bonds ^Rated by at least two rating agencies, Standard and Poor s, Moody s or Fitch. For illustration purpose only 27 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

28 Performance: Parvest Bond Asia ex Japan Since inception cumulative return of 333% and annualised return of 8.1% since May 1998 Annualised performance (Gross of Fees and Expenses %) Parvest Bond Asia ex Japan* 15.6% 11.7% 8.5% 6.6% 9.5% 6.8% -18.6% 30.9% 14.6% 4.7% 13.6% -2.3% 6.8% 4.5% 5.9% 6.4% Rolling 12 months Benchmark: JP Morgan Asia Credit Index** 14.5% 8.1% 6.1% 5.8% 7.2% 5.5% -6.5% 25.4% 10.3% 5.5% 12.7% -2.4% 8.8% 2.1% 5.8% 6.3% Outperformance in 12 out of 15 calendar years under current head Source : BNPP IP, February 2017 * Performance is gross of fees as of February 2017 in USD. Classic: (Management fee: 1.25%, Other fee: 0.35%) ; Institutional:(Management fee: 0.60%, Other fee: 0.18%). ** Benchmark was changed to JP Morgan Asia Credit Index in 2016 from HSBC Asian Dollar Bond Index as HSBC has decided to cease its Index business. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of current or future performance. The performance results are gross of fall fees, including management fees. A portfolio returns will be reduced by all applicable fees and expenses. The investment value of t he fund can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you invested. Investment involves risks and investors should read the most recent offering document for details before investing. As of October 4th 2013 the calculation of the NAV will be based on an "early NAV" methodology based on estimated prices. On May 17th 2013, BNP Paribas L1 Bond Asia ex-japan was transferred into a sub-fund of the PARVEST Luxembourg SICAV, creating PARVEST Bond Asia ex-japan. All performance and risk indicators numbers presented in this document prior to May 17th 2013 are those of the former BNP Paribas L1 Bond Asia ex-japan created on the 27/05/1998. Parvest Bond Asia Ex Japan is a Sub-fund of the PARVEST UCITS V SICAV registered under Luxembourg law. INVESTMENT RISKS Investments in fixed income assets can involve fluctuations in prices due for instance to negative information about the issuer or market. Moreover, these fluctuations are often amplified in the short term. The investments are subject to market fluctuations and the risks inherent in investments in securities. The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover the initial outlay. The value of an investment may be affected by interest rate fluctuations. Interest rates may be influenced by several element s or events, such as monetary policy, the discount rate, inflation, etc. The fund has significant exposure to a geographical region (Asia ex Japan), emerging markets and a limited number of securities and is likely to be subject to a higher than average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity, or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions). Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk. 28

29 APPENDICES 29 For Institutional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

30 Parvest Bond Asia ex-japan: Fund positioning Fund statistics Fund Benchmark Yield to maturity (%) Duration (years) Average rating BBB BBB+ Average life (years) Volatility* (%) Tracking error (TE) (bp) 80 Expected TE (bp) 250 Maximum TE (bp) 410 Rating breakdown (%) Rating* % AAA 0% AA 0.0% A 25.5% BBB 48.7% BB 2.9% B 4.1% C 0.0% Not Rated^ 7.6% Local currency exposure (%) USD 100.0% Local currencies 0.0% ^ Non-rated: Rated Single A or BBB by our proprietary credit scoring model * Annualised volatility based on past 12 months and rating is from Standard and Poor s or Moody s. This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The investment value of the fund can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you invested. Investment involves risks and investors should read the most recent offering document for details before investing. On May 17th 2013, BNP Paribas L1 Bond Asia ex-japan was transferred into a sub-fund of the PARVEST Luxembourg SICAV, creating PARVEST Bond Asia ex-japan. All performance and risk indicators numbers presented in this document prior to May 17th 2013 are those of the former BNP Paribas L1 Bond Asia ex-japan created on the 27/05/1998. Parvest Bond Asia Ex Japan is a Sub-fund of the PARVEST UCITS V SICAV registered under Luxembourg law. Source: BNPP IP, March For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution

31 Parvest Bond Asia ex-japan: Fund Positioning This is for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The investment value of the fund can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you invested. Investment involves risks and investors should read the most recent offering document for details before investing. On May 17th 2013, BNP Paribas L1 Bond Asia ex-japan was transferred into a sub-fund of the PARVEST Luxembourg SICAV, creating PARVEST Bond Asia ex-japan. All performance and risk indicators numbers presented in this document prior to May 17th 2013 are those of the former BNP Paribas L1 Bond Asia ex-japan created on the 27/05/1998. Parvest Bond Asia Ex Japan is a Sub-fund of the PARVEST UCITS V SICAV registered under Luxembourg law. Source: BNPP IP, March 2017 For Professional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution 31

32 Disclaimer This material is issued and has been prepared by BNP Paribas Asset Management S.A.S. (BNPP AM)* a member of BNP Paribas Investment Partners (BNPP IP)**. This material is produced for information purposes only and does not constitute: 1. an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or 2. any investment advice. This material makes reference to certain financial instruments (the Financial Instrument(s) ) authorised and regulated in its/their jurisdiction(s) of incorporation. No action has been taken which would permit the public offering of the Financial Instrument(s) in any other jurisdiction, except as indicated in the most recent prospectus, offering document or any other information material, as applicable, of the relevant Financial Instrument(s) where such action would be required, in particular, in the U nited States, to US persons (as such term is defined in Regulation S of the United States Securities Act of 1933). Prior to any subscription in a country in which such Financial Instrument(s) is/are registered, investors shoul d verify any legal constraints or restrictions there may be in connection with the subscription, purchase, possession or sale of the Financial Instrument(s). Investors considering subscribing for the Financial Instrument(s) should read carefully the most recent prospectus, offering document or other information material and consult the Financial Instrument(s) most recent financial reports. The prospectus, offering document or other information of the Financial Instrument(s) are available from your local BNPP IP correspondents, if any, or from the entities marketing the Financial Instrument(s). Opinions included in this material constitute the judgment of BNPP AM at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice. BNPP AM is not obliged to update or alter the information or opinions contained within this material. Investors should consult their own legal and tax advisors in respect of legal, accounting, domicile and tax advice prior to investing in the Financial Instrument(s) in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment therein, if permitted. Please note that different types of investments, if contained within this material, involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment may either be suitable, appropriate or profitable for a client or prospective client s investment portfolio. Given the economic and market risks, there can be no assurance that the Financial Instrument(s) will achieve its/their investment objectives. Returns may be affected by, amongst other things, investment strategies or objectives of the Financial Instrument(s) and material market and economic conditions, including interest rates, market terms and general market conditions. The different strategies applied to the Financial Instruments may have a significant effect on the results portrayed in this material. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of the investments in Financial Instrument(s) may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back the amount they originally invested. The performance data, as applicable, reflected in this material, do not take into account the commissions, costs incurred on the issue and redemption and taxes. This document is directed only at person(s) who have professional experience in matters relating to investments ( relevant persons ). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. *BNPP AM is an investment manager registered with the Autorité des marchés financiers in France under number 96002, a simplified joint stock company with a capital of euros with its registered office at 1, boulevard Haussmann Paris, France, RCS Paris ** BNP Paribas Investment Partners is the global brand name of the BNP Paribas group s asset management services. The individual asset management entities within BNP Paribas Investment Partners if specified herein, are specified for information only and do not necessarily carry on business in your jurisdiction. For further information, pl ease contact your locally licensed Investment Partner. 32 For Institutional Investors Only. Not for Retail Distribution