Emerging markets during the crisis: why this time was different? Boris Vujčić
|
|
- Darrell Stanley
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Emerging markets during the crisis: why this time was different? Boris Vujčić
2
3 Growth in emerging/developing economies resilient and catch-up untouched Real GDP growth, period averages GDP per capita growth rate, period averages % 4 % World Advanced Economies Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Source: IMF WEO, September 211
4 ...while Asia outperforms other regions, all expect solid growth, the most afffected being the CEE.. Real GDP growth, period averages % Central and Eastern Europe Developing Asia Middle East and North Africa Source: IMF WEO, September 211 Commonwealth of Independent States Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa
5 CA imbalances are reduced, but still there Current account balances by region, as % of GDP period averages Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies as % of GDP Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IMF WEO, September 211
6 Export growth affected most but terms of trade gains still there... Export Volumes of Goods and Services % change, period averages Terms of Trade of Goods and Services, % change, period averages % 8 6 % Advanced economies Emerging and Developing Economies Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Source: IMF WEO, September 211
7 ... largely related to commodity price increases index, 2= f 212f USD/barrel Nonfuel commodities Metals Petroleum price - right Agricultural raw materials Food Source: IMF GAS
8 Equity market has recovered rapidly, FED/bubble? But re-pricing of risk there to stay! Equity market and bond spread indices basis points basis points 3 1 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 EMBI Global - right MSCI Emerging Markets - lef t Source: Bloomberg
9 Capital flows much less affected by the crisis than was feared Net Private Financial Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies USD billion f 212f April 21 WEO Forecast April 211 WEO Forecast October 21 WEO Forecast September 211 WEO Forecast Source: IMF WEO
10 1,4 1,2 1, Capital flows over pre-crisis levels (27 outlier) Capital flows to emerging economies Composition of private capital flows, net 1, f 212f Private flows, net Official flows, net Source: IIF USD billion 211f USD billion 212f Equity Debt
11 Net capital inflows much lower and more volatile in 8 s/9 s Regional breakdown of private capital flows (net) to emerging economies USD billion Central and Eastern Europe Developing Asia Middle East and North Africa Commonwealth of Independent States Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Note: Data on CIS available only since 1992 Source: IMF WEO, September 211
12 ... than in the last 8 years, in spite of the recent crisis, CEE/CIS most affected.. Regional breakdown of private capital inflows (net) to emerging economies USD billion f 212f Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IMF WEO, September 211
13 and, as usual with the crisis - official money is back in the game... Official bilateral creditors, net International financial institutions, net Source: IIF USD billion 212f f 212f f USD billion
14 But, this time around, most of the money goes to advanced countries Portugal in May 211 has received $11bn (78 bn euros), cca 45% of GDP two-thirds from other eurozone states and a fund backed by the EU budget (cca 3% of GDP) 26bn euros by the IMF (cca 15% of GDP) Greece alone has received cca 6% of GDP in support money in 21: cca $9bn from ECB s Securities Market Program (cca 38% of GDP) over $38bn from the IMF/EU (over 16% of GDP) EFSF 75 bn euros Greece + Ireland = 195bn euros Compared with: 1995: Mexico cca 8% of GDP 1998: Thailand (cca 12%) Indonesia (cca 8%), Korea (cca 3%) 1999: Brazil cca 2% of GDP 21: Argentina (cca 3%) and Turkey (cca 6%) of GDP
15 Remittances suprisingly resilient, decline in LatAm and ECA Remittances to Developing Countries USD billion Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Middle East & North Africa Source: World Bank, Global Development Finance Databank
16 and ODA actually increased, again against the expectations Official Development Assistance to Developing Countries (all donors) USD billion USD billion Europe America Oceania Total - right Africa Asia Developing Countries - unspecified Source: OECD, Development Database on Aid
17 What makes developing world so resilient to this crisis?
18 Less dependendent on foreign savings (except the CEE) Gross national saving, as % of GDP period averages as % of GDP Central and Eastern Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IMF WEO, September 211
19 Trade away from the advanced world (except for the CEE) Developing countries, trade by partner region share Advanced Economies Emerging and developing economies Total trade, annual growth rate - right % Source: IMF IFS
20 Good macroeconomic policies Consumer Price Inflation, annual % change period averages % Central and Eastern Europe Developing Asia Middle East and North Africa Commonwealth of Independent States Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Source: IMF WEO, September 211
21 Large buffers of rapidly increasing fx reserves, not affected by the crisis - window effect International Reserves, gross USD billion f 212f USD billion Central and Eastern Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Commonwealth of Independent States Middle East and North Africa Developing Asia - right Source: IMF WEO, September 211
22 Developed and Emerging Market country ratings Number of upgrades and downgrades Developed up Developed down Emerging up Emerging down Sources: Moody's, Standard&Poor's; J.P.Morgan
23 So, things look quite good... Things have never looked better for the EM Growth prospects are, still, at historicaly high levels, catch-up with the advanced economies as well, macroeconomic policies are better than ever, dependence on foreign savings significantly reduced (even in the poorest places like Sub-Saharan Africa), foreign exchange reserves high and growing, financial flows back to the precrisis levels, ODA even increased during the crisis, EM financial markets have deepened and, thus, became more robust most affected by the crisis was Central and East Europe because it is most integrated with the advanced economies of Europe, both tradewise and in terms of financial flows
24 .. however, risks are still plentifull... they come from inside.. it is not difficult to envisage a (financial) crisis in the developing world, where markets are not properly regulated (Ireland, Iceland) where, along with the financial lliberalization, asset price bubbles are not contained where politics still play a large role in credit/assets distribution today the issue at hand is not the quantity, as was the case in the past, but quality of (intermediation) of finance for the EM the good thing being the fact that they have where to learn from
25 and that quality is about micro-management(1): providing access for people and companies to financing in a manner that is both conducive to growth but, at the same time, reduces inequalities, particularly in countries where they are still huge conclusion? how much, and in what ways, can a government intervention achieve in this area is still an open question (Gates project can help give some answers), microfinance... and, macro-management (2): intermediation of capital (in)flows in an efficient manner, which requires a good institutional set-up, with prudent (macro)economic policies in order to avoid crisis episodes/volatility which hampers long-run growth and, yes, don t forget politics play a large role
26 ...and from the outside... as the crisis has nicely demonstrated, there is nothing like a perfect decoupling fiscal riks in both the US and Eurozone have increased during the crisis, which, if not managed very well, nad there are few good news there, can trigger another widespread financial crisis with dire consequences for growth prospects primarily in advanced economies, but also around the world
27 Fiscal developments in advanced economies Fiscal balance, General govt. gross debt, period averages period averages as % of GDP as % of GDP Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Source: IMF WEO, September 211
28 ...will deteriorate further in US/slightly improve in EMU (optimistic scenario)..lessons for the developing countries as % of GDP as % of GDP United States Euro area Spain Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Source: IMF WEO, September 211
29 Europe has its own large imbalances Net foreign assets (in percent of world GDP) US JPN Eur surplus CHN EMA OIL ROW Eur deficit Discrepancy
30 ..financed from within - share of outstanding debt securities held outside the euro area (28).. 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% %
31 Another DM crisis? the way the things look like today there is an increasing probability of a large catastrophe if things, again, go wrong in the DM, spillovers will happen through different channnels through demand/trade channel through financial flows channel through exchange rate channel which affects both trade and value of assets, whereby today s strenghts of EM countries might show up as weaknesses or, there could be different other types of exogenous shocks, say in a commodity markets, where terms of trade gains for many countries might get wiped-out in the same way as they happened
32 Emerging markets EM Growth will be The biggest risk to EM growth comes from Relatively immune to a deep recession in the US and Euro area 2% Capital outflows due to riskreduction 37% Relatively immune to (i., modestly affected by) a mild recession in the US and Euro area 64% Deterioration of funding markets Export weakness due to weaker DM growth 12% 38% Materially affected by a mild recession in the US and Euro area 34% Too little policy support from both EM and DM policymakers 13% % 2% 4% 6% 8% % 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Morgan Stanley
33 Equities By mid-212, EM equities will What is your most preferred equity region for next 12m? Outperform the S&P 5 by more than 2% 8% Europe 16% Outperform the S&P 5 by less than 2% 4% US 31% Be roughly on par with S&P 5 performance 25% EM 47% Underperform the S&P 5 by more than 1% 27% Japan 6% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: Morgan Stanley
34 Emerging markets Is China a bubble economy? China s transition to consumer-led growth will occur in: 2-5 years 25% Yes 55% 5-1 years 46% No 45% More than 1 years 29% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: Morgan Stanley
35 Instead of conclusion So, although things loook very good at the moment, I m afraid we don t know much, i.e. over the last four years most of the economists were wrong on: sub-prime decoupling inflation commodity prices financial flows fiscal risks EMU need for the IMF Although crisis/post crisis performance of the EM/developing world points to a great deal of optimism, given many risks and uncertainties, I ll just conclude: let s see what will the world look like this time next year
Discussion of Bacchetta & Benhima paper The Demand for Liquid Assets and International Capital Flows
Discussion of Bacchetta & Benhima paper The Demand for Liquid Assets and International Capital Flows Marcel Fratzscher European Central Bank Conference Financial Globalization: Shifting Balances Banco
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationWorld real GDP growth in 2010 Annual percent change
World real GDP growth in 20 Annual percent change % or more 6-% 3-6% 0-3% Less than 0% No data Source: International Monetary Fund. World real GDP growth in 2011 Annual percent change % or more 6-% 3-6%
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationProgress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction)
Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction) Source: OECD May 2014 Forecast, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and
More informationTHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS LESSONS FOR FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS LESSONS FOR FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM Ulrich Volz, German Development Institute (DIE) ICRIER-InWEnt Workshop on Current Developments in the Indian Financial System New Delhi,
More informationNew Trends and Challenges in Government Debt Management
New Trends and Challenges in Government Debt Management Phillip Anderson The World Bank Treasury 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, DC, 2433, USA treasury.worldbank.org 1 Recent Trends 2 Progress and Challenges
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationGlobal financial markets: how emerging market economies are enlarging the playing field
Global financial markets: how emerging market economies are enlarging the playing field Paola Subacchi and Vanessa Rossi International Economics Programme, Chatham House, London The Gulf region: the new
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationFinancial Stability Review November Press Briefing Luis de Guindos 29 November 2018
Financial Stability Review November 218 Press Briefing Luis de Guindos 29 November 218 Risk assessment The financial stability environment has become more challenging Four key risks over a two-year horizon
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationTHE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL TURMOIL ON THE WORLD COTTON AND TEXTILE MARKET
THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL TURMOIL ON THE WORLD COTTON AND TEXTILE MARKET Presented by Paul Morris Chairman of the Standing Committee INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1999 China International Cotton
More informationWorld Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising?
World Economic Outlook Is the Tide Rising? January 214 1 Global activity has strengthened. Further improvements expected. WEO Update in a nutshell Advanced economy growth has picked up Robust private demand
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationExchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind?
Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind? Guillermo Perry Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank Conference on Emerging Powers in
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationTeetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?
Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011
More informationEconomic puzzles: the world, Europe, Brexit and renminbi Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times
Economic puzzles: the world, Europe, Brexit and renminbi Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times FT-ANZ RMB Growth Strategy Series 24 th June Sydney Economic puzzles
More informationEmerging markets in the global crisis and beyond
Emerging markets in the global crisis and beyond May 5, 29 Maria Laura Lanzeni Head of Emerging Markets Think Tank of Deutsche Bank Group Agenda Emerging markets & BRICs as global players Impact of the
More informationTop Ten Game Changers for country risk in 2014 Getting back in the game. Ludovic Subran - March 5, 2014 Country Risk Practice
Top Ten Game Changers for country risk in 2014 Getting back in the game Ludovic Subran - March 5, 2014 Country Risk Practice Country Risk at EH: One objective, one methodology, several outcomes Why country
More informationMonetary Policy Stance amid the Risk of Uneven Global Growth and External Imbalance
Monetary Policy Stance amid the Risk of Uneven Global Growth and External Imbalance Agus D.W. Martowardojo Governor Bank Indonesia Prepared for Mandiri Investment Forum, January 27, 2015 2 1 Global Economic
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Assuring growth over the medium term Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group January 213 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive More than 4 years after
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationCentral and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities
Central and Eastern Europe: Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities ICEG Annual Conference Brussels, May 28 Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Overview The
More informationM&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing
More informationGlobal growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.
Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationJune 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating
June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More informationCaucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011
Regional Economic Outlook October 211 Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Overview Global outlook (CCA)
More informationFinancial Crisis What do we know?
Financial Crisis What do we know? Pedro Videla IESE Global Propagation of the Financial Crisis United Kingdom Ireland Iceland United States Spain January 2008 March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 January
More informationPOST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, Barry Bosworth
POST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, 2010 Barry Bosworth I. Economic Rise of Asia Emerging economies of Asia have performed extremely
More informationTable of contents. Acknowledgements... Explanatory notes... Executive summary...
Table of contents Acknowledgements... Explanatory notes... Executive summary... iii iv v Chapter I Global economic outlook... 1 Prospects for the world economy in 2014-2015... 1 Global growth continues
More informationCosa ci riserva il 2008?
Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents
More informationProgress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction)
Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis ( = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction) 13 125 196-26 AE Recessions' Range*** 196-26 AE Recessions**
More informationOther similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets
Session 15. Understanding Macroeconomic Crises. Mexican Crisis 1994-95 Other similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets Global Scenarios 2017-2021 The Mexican Peso Crisis in 1994: Background An economy that
More informationEmerging market debt outlook
Investment Insights Emerging market debt outlook January 2012 2011 in review 2011 was a year in which investors focused on the economic fundamentals underlying their investments. Financial markets were
More informationChallenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates
Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Takatoshi Kato Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund September 3, 27 1 9 Growth has been
More informationReflections on the Global Economic Outlook
Reflections on the Global Economic Outlook A presentation to the ACI-ICA World Congress October 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Global Megatrends
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery. June M. Ayhan Kose Four Questions
//7 Global Economic Prospects: A Fragile Recovery June 7 M. Ayhan Kose akose@worldbank.org Four Questions How is the health of the global economy? Recovery underway, broadly as expected How important is
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly: October 2012 Maintaining resilience
Indonesia Economic Quarterly: October 1 Maintaining resilience Ndiame Diop Lead Economist & Economic Advisor, Indonesia World Bank October 15, 1 Paramadina Public Policy Institute www.worldbank.org/id
More informationPresentation. The Boom in Capital Flows and Financial Vulnerability in Asia
High-level Regional Policy Dialogue on "Asia-Pacific economies after the global financial crisis: Lessons learnt, challenges for building resilience, and issues for global reform" 6-8 September 2011, Manila,
More informationEconomic Trends and Challenges
Economic Trends and Challenges in Central and Eastern Europe Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Warsaw Regional Office April 2007 Note: These are the author s s own views, not necessarily
More informationThe euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective
The euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist, Member of the Management Board 3 rd Annual BBVA European Debt Conference New York, 4 October 217 The euro area:
More informationNegative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications
Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications November 4, 216 Marc Stocker Based on a recently published CEPR / World Bank Working Paper Disclaimer! The views presented here are those of the
More informationGMO. CFA Society, Victoria. September 30, Arjun Divecha. North America Europe Asia-Pacific
North America Europe Asia-Pacific CFA Society, Victoria September 30, 2010 Arjun Divecha Proprietary information not for distribution beyond intended recipient. Overview San Francisco Boston London Zurich
More informationSovereign Credit Outlook. Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 2018
Sovereign Credit Outlook Richard Francis Director, Latin America Sovereigns Corficolombiana Conference December 5, 218 Agenda Global Perspective Regional Overview Sovereign Ratings and Recent Actions Colombia
More informationHow the emerging markets slowdown will impact listed Spanish companies
How the emerging markets slowdown will impact listed Spanish companies Nereida González, Pablo Guijarro and Diego Mendoza 1 Despite the favourable impact of recent international expansion by Spanish companies,
More informationLatin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns
Latin America Sovereign Ratings in a Weakening Global Economy Shelly Shetty, Head of Latin America Sovereigns October 11, 211 Agenda Latin America Sovereigns: Ratings Trajectory In A Weakening Global Environment
More information2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:
217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term
More informationFinancial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
More informationEconomic state of the union, EuroMemo Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University
Economic state of the union, EuroMemo 2013 Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University structure Economic developments Background: export-led growth and debt-led growth Growth, trade imbalances, ages and
More informationThe Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets: Lessons for Global and Not-So-Global Financial Architecture
The Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets: Lessons for Global and Not-So-Global Financial Architecture Conference Preventing the Next Financial Crisis Columbia University, December 11, 2008 Erik Berglof
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth. Select Publications from DECPG
// Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth February M. Ayhan Kose Disclaimer! The views presented here are those of the authors and do NOT necessarily reflect the views and policies of the
More informationThis statistical appendix presents data
STATISTICAL APPENDIX This statistical appendix presents data on financial developments in key financial centers and emerging markets. It is designed to complement the analysis in the text by providing
More informationAmericas Latinas: revisited
Americas Latinas: revisited Global Insight World Economic Outlook Conference Manuel Balmaseda Chief Economist Boston, October 2007 Boston October 2007 1 A New LatAm Sounder Economics Sounder Domestic Policy
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationWhy Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now?
Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? 2018 Over the long term, Emerging Markets (EM) have been a winning alternative compared to traditional Developed Markets (DM)... 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1998
More informationFinancial Crisis and Global Recession: At a Turning Point?
Financial Crisis and Global Recession: At a Turning Point? Richard Newfarmer Special Representative to UN and WTO World Bank Geneva June 29,, 2009 Main messages Recession in the US now appears to be bottoming
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationIrish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors -
Irish Exporters Association Half Year 2013 Review -Export contraction impacting differing sectors - -------------------------------- Published August 2013 0 Contents 1. Executive Summary - January to June
More informationSMSF Investment Seminar Sydney. 18 Oct 2010
SMSF Investment Seminar Sydney 18 Oct 2010 Important Notice This document has been prepared by Asian Masters Fund Limited (Asian Masters Fund). The material that follows is a presentation of general background
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationApril 2015 Fiscal Monitor
International Monetary Fund April 17, 2015 April 2015 Fiscal Monitor Now is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth Xavier Debrun Deputy Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, Fiscal Affairs Department
More informationPRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 2012
PRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 212 3Q 212 Fund s market value Quarterly numbers, 3 September 212. Billions of kroner 4 3 5 Asset class Value Percentage fund Equities 2 247 6.3% 3 723 4 3 5 3 Fixed Income
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationMonetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia. Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department
Monetary policy spillovers: the case of 2014 shock in Russia Bank of Russia Research and forecasting Department Zurich, May 10, 2017 Monetary spillovers channels Exchange rate channel Domestic demand channel
More informationSovereign Development Funds and the Shifting Wealth of Nations
Sovereign Development Funds and the Shifting Wealth of Nations Salzburg Global Seminar Javier Santiso Director and Chief Economist 27 September Salzburg, Austria A fundamental shift Emerging economies
More informationGlobal/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June
Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
More informationHIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES
Key Points HIGHLIGHTS from CHAPTER 1: GLOBAL OUTLOOK DARKENING SKIES Global growth has moderated, and it is expected to slow from 3 percent in 18 to.9 percent in. International trade and manufacturing
More informationTwenty-Third Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics Washington, D.C. October 25-27, 2010
BOPCOM-10/15 Twenty-Third Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics Washington, D.C. October 25-27, 2010 Bilateral Cross-Border Holdings and Global Imbalances A View on the Eve of
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationTrends and opportunities across regions: Europe
Trends and opportunities across regions: Europe Monday, 6 June 2011 Head of Institutional Fixed Income Europe Three themes shaping global opportunities I. Long term: Spheres of influence are shifting among
More informationFinancial System Stabilized, but Exit, Reform, and Fiscal Challenges Lie Ahead
January 21 Financial System Stabilized, but Exit, Reform, and Fiscal Challenges Lie Ahead Systemic risks have continued to subside as economic fundamentals have improved and substantial public support
More informationExternal Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good?
External Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good? Alejandro Izquierdo IADB Emerging Powers in Global Governance Conference Paris, July 6, 2007 (based on work with Ernesto Talvi)
More informationJörg Decressin Deputy Director
World Economic Outlook October 13 Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF 1 Outline Prospects for Advanced Economies Recent Developments and Implications for Emerging Economies Medium-term
More informationEmerging Markets Outlook
Mark Mobius, Ph.D. Executive Chairman Templeton Emerging Markets Group Emerging Markets Outlook Dealer Use Only / Not for Distribution to the Public Agenda Performance Emerging Markets Equities: Demand
More informationMonetary Policy Divergence and Global Financial Stability: From the Perspective of Demand and Supply of Safe Assets
Monetary Policy Divergence and Global Financial Stability: From the Perspective of Demand and Supply of Safe Assets January, 7 Speech at a Meeting Hosted by the International Bankers Association of Japan
More informationWhy Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now?
Why Invest In Emerging Markets? Why Now? 2017 Over the long term, Emerging Markets (EM) have been a winning alternative compared to traditional Developed Markets (DM)... 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1997
More informationSpillovers from Dollar Appreciation
June 6-7, 216 International Monetary Fund Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation Florence Jaumotte (with J. Chow, S.G. Park, and S. Zhang) Motivation Context: appreciation of US Dollar changing growth differentials,
More informationContents. HSBC Group in the world. HSBC in Brazil. New Economic Scenario / Macroeconomic Forecasts
HSBC GLOBAL & LOCAL STRATEGY IN A NEW ECONOMIC SCENARIO Conrado Engel CEO & President of HSBC Bank Brasil 26 March 2010 The British Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Brazil - São Paulo 0 Contents HSBC
More informationCapital Flows in the Euro Area: Some lessons from the last boom-bust cycle. Angel Gavilan, Martin Hillebrand December 2017
Capital Flows in the Euro Area: Some lessons from the last boom-bust cycle Angel Gavilan, Martin Hillebrand December 217 The last boom in capital flows was largely a global phenomenon Sum of current account
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationA LONG-TERM CASE FOR EMERGING MARKETS
A LONG-TERM CASE FOR EMERGING MARKETS An Extraordinary Long-Term Opportunity Emerging markets have displayed significant evolution in terms of economic development and capital markets deepening in the
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2017 Economic overview Further evidence of synchronised global economic improvement was signalled by higher measures of economic activity and company profits, along
More informationThe Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments
The Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments Dr. Leonardo Leiderman Professor of Economics, Tel-Aviv University and Chief Economic Advisor, Bank Hapoalim To be presented in
More informationSHAMBLING FORWARD. 02/13/2014 WORLD POPULATION 2 WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE
SHAMBLING FORWARD. WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE Shamble: To walk in an awkward, lazy, or unsteady manner, shuffling the feet FEBRUARY 12, 2014 David B. Hanson, CPA, CFA
More informationThe effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues. By Julian Jessop
The effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues By Julian Jessop 1. Plan of My Talk The outlook for advanced economies. Impact on developing countries. Some losers and
More information