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1 DAILY REPORT Financial market analysis Unit Brokerage Unit Milica Travica Ljiljana Zipovski Srñan Maletić Snežana Spasojević Olivera Glisić FX sales Unit Custody Unit Darko Karanović Vitomir Marić Marija Prebanić Biljana Radosavljević Dragan Ignja FX rate Domestic market International market Currency Previous Change Currency Previous Change EUR % EURUSD % USD % EURCHF % CHF % EURGBP % GBP % GBPUSD % Source: NBS USDJPY % EUR EURUSD Central bank informed us that till 12:3 total amount of trading was 58, 6 mil EUR at average rate 11, 881. EUR and USD indicators for current day: Time Country Event Period Previous Forecast!! 13:45 EU ECB rate mar 1% 1% MM and fixed income Key rate NBS 9.5 Interbank market - Serbia Previous Change bps Source: NBS BEONIA BELIBOR1M T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M Maturity Previous Source: Reuters 3 month 11.6% 11.9% 6 month 1.48% 1.48% Major Key rates 12 month 12.69% 13.% 18 month 13.% 12.79% ECB 1.% 24 month 13.25% 13.25% FED.25% 36 month 14.89% 14.89% SNB.% 6 month 14.7% 53 week-eur 5.95% Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance Interbank - World Previous Change bps EONIA.355%.342%.13 FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR1M.54%.511% -.7 Yield EURIBOR3M.911%.92% -.9 EURIBOR6M 1.221% 1.229% -.8 A212 98,5 6,71% LIBOR1M (USD).24275%.24275%. A213 92,23 6,78% LIBOR3M (USD).47455%.47455%. A214 87,91 5,94% LIBOR1M (CHF).675%.675%. A215 81,31 6,61% LIBOR3M (CHF).9167%.9167%. A216 77,23 6,29% Source: Belex Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day 1

2 Equity market SERBIA Previous Change Belex % Belex line 1, , % Turnover 34,56,65 Din. 39,787,25 Din % 37,943 36, % Ratios P / B P / E Belex15,61 5,73 YTD 13.25% 7.33% Source: Belex Belex Belex Line 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% - members of Belex15.97% 1.8% 1.1%.%.%.%.%.1% -.2% -.84% -1.38% -2.7% -2.31% KMBN NIIS AERO TIGR JMBN IMLK SJPT UNBN JESV VZAS ALFA MTLC AIKB AGBN Year-on-year inflation in February will be 5% or slightly below, National Bank of Serbia (NBS) Governor Dejan Soskic said at the Kopaonik Business Forum yesterday. According to Soskic, year-on-year inflation will continue to decline after February and reach its 212 low in March or April, when it may even slip below the lower end of the target band. The NBS targets inflation of 4% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points at the end of 212. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Resident Representative in Serbia Bogdan Lissovolik said that the country should continue seeking to switch to a new growth model, one based on exports, savings and investments, as well as use all the opportunities brought by the newly-obtained EU candidate status. World Bank Country Manager in Serbia Loup Brefort also called for structural reforms aimed at export-driven economic growth, noting that public companies in Serbia must be reformed, if not through privatization then through depoliticizing, transparency and accountability. The agriculture, energy and industrial sectors should fuel Serbia s exports and economic growth. (Source:Executive newsletter) Korean-Serbian JV Mecen Evropa Tech to start producing insulation material in Serbia next week. Mecen Evropa Tech, a joint venture between South Korea s Mecen IPC and Serbia s Evropa-Inex, will unveil an insulation material plant in the municipality of Nova Pazova on March 15 as part of a EUR 4 million project. The plant will manufacture low-density polyethylene insulation materials for the domestic and foreign markets. The factory will procure low-density polyethylene, its main raw material, from state petrochemical producer Petrohemija in Pancevo, Grumic said. The factory plans to churn out around 5 tons of insulation material in the first year of its operations. More than half of its output will be intended for exports. The Serbian Investment and Export Promotion Agency has supported the investment with job creation subsidies of EUR 4, per employee, adding that the company will have a 6-strong workforce within two years. According to the company s website, Mecen IPC is Korea s largest multinational company in the plastic processing and recycling industry.(source:executive newsletter) Speaking at the Kopaonik Business Forum, NBS Governor Dejan Soskic said that the dinar has lost 4.4% against the euro over the past two months, in what was a better performance than that of other currencies in floating ex rate regimes. A weakening dinar benefits exporters, while the domestic currency s strengthening is good for net importers and those with foreign currency debt, he noted. All attempts to introduce a fixed ex rate in Serbia have failed so far, he said, noting that forex hedging instruments can help protect businesses from currency risk. Asked about possible dismissal following elections, Soskic said that he has nothing against placing the NBS work under scrutiny and checking whether the central bank has operated successfully and in line with law, according to Tanjug. He also noted that the NBS interventions on the forex market are in line with the country s monetary policy framework.(source:executive newsletter) 2

3 A Listing Aerodrom Nikola Tesla Energoprojekt holding Naftna industrija Srbije Soja protein Tigar Izvor: Bloomberg AERO 5 1,118,5-1.35% -1.16% ENHL 514 1,218, % 1.78% NIIS 711 2,723, % -2.84% SJPT 551 2,22,347.%.73% TIGR , % -5.8%.24 #N/A N/A ,144,675,781 Din. 4,866,454,12 Din. 115,935,945,313 Din. 8,27,433,594 Din. 89,394,653 Din. Alfa Plam Komercijalna banka Metalac Izvor: Bloomberg B Listing ALFA 7,21 115,216.1%.1% KMBN 1,78 8,1, -2.31% -1.11% MTLC 1,67 2,4.97%.97% ,258,821,167 Din. 15,52,572,266 Din. 1,73,4,24 Din. Continuous Trading Method Agrobanka AIK banka Beogradska industrija piva Bambi Credy banka Čačanska banka DIN prioritetne Dunav osiguranje Galenika Fitofarmacija Globos osiguranje Imlek Informatika Jedinstvo Sevojno Jubmes banka Komercijalna banka PB Lasta Napred GP Politika Privredna banka Progres Pupin Telecom Putevi Užice Razvojna banka Vojvodine Simpo Tehnogas Telefonija Univerzal banka Velefarm Veterinarski zavod Subotica Vino Župa Vital Voda Vrnjci AGBN 1, , % 3.72%.8 n/a 6.77 AIKB 2,254 7,447, % 16.55% BIPB 29.% -12.% 2.63 n/a BMBI 19,5.%.% CYBN 1,9 2,319,9.5% 8.63%.46 n/a CCNB 9,.%.% DINNPB 1,6 5,3.85%.85% DNOS 1,.%.%.3 n/a 2.16 FITO 2,.% -.5% GLOS 273.% 9.2%.13 n/a 2.21 IMLK 2, ,118.%.27% INFM 1,993 5, % -12.1% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A JESV 4,8.%.% JMBN 12,195 6, %.37% KMBNPB 92 18,4.%.% n/a n/a 8.62 LSTA 253.% % NPRD 1,1.%.% PLTK 5.%.%.15 #N/A N/A PRBN 22 77, %.%.24 n/a PRGS 48.% 4.35% PTLK 94.%.% PUUE 573.%.% MTBN 1,.% 1.11% SIMP 225.% 12.5%.4 #N/A N/A TGAS 4,.% -6.98% TLFN 4.% % UNBN 1,92.%.52% VLFR 3.%.%.22 n/a VLFR ,588.% -1.79% VINZ 6,5.%.% VITL 1,63.% -5.71% VDAV 4,5.%.%.51 n/a ,382,152,344 Din. 19,656,777,344 Din. 264,75,714 Din. 7,466,53,273 Din. 981,57,69 Din. 1,21,14,4 Din. 3,57,294,189 Din. 259,178,986 Din. 1,76,, Din. 33,265,869 Din. 27,51,593,75 Din. 366,327,362 Din. 1,462,651,245 Din. 3,165,846,436 Din. 343,629,211 Din. 387,332,886 Din. 377,66,93 Din. 329,844,788 Din. 548,422,18 Din. 258,851,99 Din. 15,465,462 Din. 562,824,97 Din. 1,81,848,999 Din. 238,432,495 Din. 4,146,631,836 Din. 231,677,994 Din. 1,89,563,477 Din. 467,728,485 Din. 743,64,492 Din. 1,289,45,29 Din. 1,224,591,64 Din. 516,541,54 Din. Napomene: (1) Promet=prosečna ponderisana cena x obim. (2) -price to book value je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i knjigovodstvene vrednosti. (3) -price to earnings je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i zarade po akciji (EPS). (4) -return on equity je racio koji predstavlja odnos neto dobiti i akcijskog kapitala. (5) Mcap-tržišna kapitalizacija=tržišna cena akcije x broj akcija 3

4 REGION Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Crobex Hrvatska 1, , SBITOP Slovenija SOFIX Bugarska BET Rumunija 5, , DJ Stoxx Balkan 5 Balkan % 1.88% -1.37% -4.93%.3% -3.11% -1.51% 21.4% -.49% 18.81% CROBEX SBITOP crobex 15 1 sbi SOFIX BET sofix bet-c dj balkan DJ Stoxx Balkan 5 Key creditors holding a bloc of more than 39 percent of privately held Greek debt said yesterday they would take part in a bond swap, a condition for an overall bailout to save Greece from default. The announcement came only one day before today s deadline for Greece to finalize swaps, raising the likelihood that the deal will go through and a 13 billion euro international bailout package would be secured. Thirty companies on the Private Creditor-Investor Committee that helped negotiate the deal said they intend to participate in the debt ex with bonds amounting in aggregate to 81 billion euros, or 39.3 percent of the 26 billion euro total eligible debt, Hurriyet reports.(balkans.com) Car, ceramic, electronics and agriculture companies have expressed interest to invest in FYR Macedonia during the visit of a governmental delegation, led by Prime Nikola Gruevski, to India.The government's road show across India included four business forums and numerous meetings with representatives of India's companies.(balkans.com) 4

5 WORLD Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Dow Jones Industrial S&P 5 NASDAQ FTSE Dow Jones Stoxx 6 Nikkei , , , Engleska 5, EU Japan 9, , , , , , % 5.7%.69% 7.56%.87% 12.69%.44% 3.93%.64% 6.37% -.64% 13.25% Dow Jones Industrial S&P dow jones 1 s&p NASDAQ Composite FTSE nasdaq 6 dax DJ Stoxx 6 Nikkei nikkei 15 \ dj stoxx European stocks rose, rebounding from yesterday s biggest drop since November, after a report showed hiring in U.S. companies accelerated and as investors with more than half of Greek bonds agreed to a debt swap. Deutsche Boerse AG advanced 2.3 percent after UBS AG recommended buying the stock. Cobham Plc jumped the most since at least 1989 after saying it s in talks for acquisitions. Adidas AG fell 3 percent as it forecast 212 net income that missed analyst estimates. We don t think yesterday s move is the beginning of a longer-term correction, so it rather presents a good opportunity to add to positions, Patrick Moonen, senior strategist at ING Investment Management in The Hague, Netherlands, said in a telephone interview. Overall, if you look at macro data, surprises are still positive -- in the U.S. but also in the U.K. and the euro zone. A report from ADP Employer Services showed companies in the U.S. added 216, workers in February, compared with 17, in January. The median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey called for a 215, increase.() U.S. stocks advanced, following the biggest decline in 212 for the Standard & Poor s 5 Index, after a private report showed American companies increased hiring and more investors signed on to a Greek debt swap. Equities extended gains on a report that the Federal Reserve is discussing a new type of bond-buying program. Financial and industrial shares rose the most among 1 groups in the S&P 5. Bank of America Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. advanced at least 2.2 percent. Apple Inc. added.1 percent after introducing a new version of the ipad with a sharper screen. The market just wants to go up, said Jack Ablin, who helps oversee $55 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. The ADP report was positive. The bigger participation in the Greek debt swap is encouraging. Plus, there s a report that says that the Fed would continue to buy bonds, but they are not going to expand their balance sheet. Stocks rose as companies added 216, workers to payrolls in February, according to ADP Employer Services. The report came two days before the Labor Department s monthly jobs data. Consumer borrowing rose more than forecast in January. () Navedene informacije date su u svrhu opšteg informisanja i ne mogu biti zamena za finansijski savet niti se njihovim objavljivanjem stvara bilo kakva obveza za Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd ne prihvata odgovornost za bilo kakvu štetu nastalu upotrebom informacija iz ovog materijala. niti garantuje za njihovu tačnost. Zabranjeno je dalje distribuiranje i umnožavanje ovog materijala ili nekih njegovih delova bez prethodnog pisanog pristanka Banca Intesa ad Beograd. 5